2018 Baseball HOF Ballot: The Pitchers

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) released their Modern Era committee Hall of Fame ballot yesterday. Over the next few weeks Boston Sports Extra will make our case for who should and who shouldn’t, and who will and won’t, get elected.

The Process

In order to walk into Cooperstown as anything other than a paid visitor, a player must be on at least 75% of the ballots. Last year, there were 442 ballots cast, so a player must have been on 332 ballots to be inducted.

Voting for induction to baseball’s greatest shrine has no more integrity than voting for homecoming queen at your high school. Writers, who weren’t good enough athletes to actually play baseball, check the box next to the names of the players they like. It’s a popularity contest. Some writers are more objective than others. Some are comically biased.

Last year Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, and Edgar Renteria all received votes for the Hall of Fame. That’s not just ridiculous, it demonstrates that we should reassess who is allowed to vote. Every ballot should be made public.  Any writer so obviously out of step with reality should have their voting privileges suspended.

For now, BBWAA Hall voters can keep their ballots private. Those who do simply lack the intellectual integrity to defend their stances on certain players.

2018 Class of Pitchers

This year’s ballot includes fourteen pitchers. Trevor Hoffman, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Billy Wagner are all hold-overs from previous years. There are nine pitchers being considered for their first time: Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Jamie Moyer, Chris Carpenter, Livian Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kerry Wood, Jason Isringhausen, and Brad Lidge.

Here is how they stack up statistically.

					Pitching Stats
Rk	Name	YoB	% of Ballots	Yrs	W	L	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
1	Trevor Hoffman	3rd	74.00%	18	61	75	2.87	141	1.058	1035	0	601	1089	846	100	307	1133
2	Roger Clemens	6th	54.10%	24	354	184	3.12	143	1.173	709	707	0	4916	4185	363	1580	4672
3	Mike Mussina	5th	51.80%	18	270	153	3.68	123	1.192	537	536	0	3562	3460	376	785	2813
4	Curt Schilling	6th	45.00%	20	216	146	3.46	127	1.137	569	436	22	3261	2998	347	711	3116
5	Billy Wagner	3rd	10.20%	16	47	40	2.31	187	0.998	853	0	422	903	601	82	300	1196
6	Johan Santana	1st		12	139	78	3.2	136	1.132	360	284	1	2025	1726	220	567	1988
7	Carlos Zambrano	1st		12	132	91	3.66	120	1.331	354	302	0	1959	1709	161	898	1637
8	Jamie Moyer	1st		25	269	209	4.25	103	1.322	696	638	0	4074	4231	522	1155	2441
9	Chris Carpenter	1st		15	144	94	3.76	116	1.276	350	332	0	2219	2205	220	627	1697
10	Livan Hernandez	1st		17	178	177	4.44	95	1.44	519	474	1	3189	3525	362	1066	1976
11	Kevin Millwood	1st		16	169	152	4.11	106	1.328	451	443	0	2720	2770	296	843	2083
12	Kerry Wood	1st		14	86	75	3.67	117	1.267	446	178	63	1380	1083	148	666	1582
13	Jason Isringhausen	1st		16	51	55	3.64	115	1.328	724	52	300	1007	901	85	437	830
14	Brad Lidge	1st		11	26	32	3.54	122	1.291	603	1	225	603.1	492	57	287	799
	AVERAGE HOF PITCHER			18	253	176	2.98			596	462	39	3801	3500	199	1052	2153

We will get into the details of a number of candidates in the coming weeks, but it is a safe bet that Hoffman will get the additional 1% he needs for induction. He will be the only pitcher elected this year.

Still Have a Shot

Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling will not only stay on the ballot next year, but should all eventually get elected. By the numbers, Rocket is a no brainer. But, as we’ll discuss later, his situation is more complicated than that.

Moose and Schill don’t have Clemens’ numbers, but they also don’t have his PED baggage. Mussina is safer bet than Schilling. His 270 wins are more in line with starting pitchers already in Cooperstown, and he hasn’t been nearly as controversial off the field. Much more on that later.

Good but Not Great

Of the newbies on the ballot, none of the starting pitchers are likely to make it, though some will stay above the 5% cut line for a couple of years. Moyer has more wins than the average Hall pitcher, but he has 209 loses and a career ERA almost a run and a half higher. Johan Santana was brilliant for a short time, but he wasn’t Pedro Martinez. He will eventually fall well short.

Similarly, none of the other four predominantly relief pitchers on the ballot will make it. This includes Kerry Wood, who due to injuries had his gifted career cut short. Billy Wagner is the most other Hall-worthy candidate, but when judged against Trevor Hoffman’s candidacy you can easily see how far he is below the standard.