Author Archives: @johndavogel

About @johndavogel

New Orleans Saints Team Editor at Full Press Coverage. Celtics Writer/Editor here at Boston Sports Extra. I love football more then almost anything. Basketball is a close second. Filmaholic. Roman Catholic. Damn Right.

Celtics Rookie First Round Pick Robert Williams Assigned to G-League

Leave a reply

Robert Williams III, the Celtics first round rookie out of Texas A&M, has been assigned to the NBA G-League by the Boston Celtics to play for the Maine Red Claws. The Celtics franchise G-League affiliate tips off Friday night, November 2nd, 2018, against the Westchester Knicks. He is expected to start right away.

Williams was selected with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. In two seasons at Texas A&M, he averaged 11.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Has he been performing badly?

Not in the slightest. Robert Williams has actually impressed thus far in his action. He threw down a thunderous dunk 0:05 seconds into his game against the Detroit Pistons on October 27th, and then recorded 3 blocks.

The assignment isn’t because Williams hasn’t been playing well. Rather, it’s because they have no minutes for him to play. Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris and Al Horford have gotten the overwhelming majority of the minutes at the five position. That’s not including Daniel Theis, currently injured, who has been getting a lot of minutes too.

I’m sure this was a decision made by Brad Stevens. Stevens see’s the big play material and potential written all over Williams, and would rather him be playing minutes against lesser talent then playing no minutes at all.

Is this a good move?

Hell, yeah! The Celtics have plenty of depth this season and are currently healthy. Plus, they can call up Robert Williams and then send him back whenever they want. This move allows Williams to play, continue to refine his game and keep him ready for NBA action.

So far, the Celtics had only played him in eleven and a half minutes over four games. I’m certain that Williams will return to the team at some point this season. With extra experience, he should play very well upon his return.

In the meantime, someone please make sure that Maine has a roof high enough to keep Williams from bumping his head on the rafters during his launch for a dunk.

Celtics Edge Pistons 108-105: Three Takeaways

Leave a reply

Tuesday night’s action was a welcome sight to sore eyes in Boston. The wait for Kyrie Irving, the Celtics star point guard, to score a lot of points and shake the monkey off of his back is finally over.

Irving scored 31, his highest point total of the season thus far, and added 5 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal to his game totals as well. Irving, with a freshly shaven head, seems to have moved on from his horrid start to the season that saw him averaging just 14 points per game through the first six games, and a stretch where he eclipsed 20 points just twice, an scored a career low, 3 points in 23 minutes, against the Pistons on October 27th.

Let’s jump into this game and see what we can takeaway from it.

Kyrie looked like his old self again

Photo courtesy of @BCelticNews

Kyrie Irving started this season with an Afro. It was a new look for Kyrie, and he didn’t perform well. Hours before the game, he posted on Instagram that he had shaved the Afro away to his more traditional look.

Kyrie has really struggled this season to get going, and it must have been really frustrating for him. To finally shake (er, rather, shave) the monkey off of his back and have a solid game must feel great, and hopefully he can continue with that.

His shot chart looked better too, as you can observe for yourself down below. The most encouraging thing that we saw from Kyrie last night is he had his step back. Check out the video I attached that’s blowing up #NBATwitter.

Kyrie Irving’s shot chart 10/30/2018 Vs Detriot. Courtesy of basketballreference.com

What’s going on with Kyrie?

Kyrie’s game has always been his ability to score at the basket, and then come back down the court and knock down a pull up three. He’s always been an offensive weapon more than anything else.

Yesterday, he struggled in his usual game, the mid range. As you can see, he missed everything from the high post. Still, despite that, Kyrie looked smooth on the court. We’ve wanted to see that for a while now, where Kyrie can just settle into his game. He did so, and in a beautiful fashion.

Another crazy stat: Kyrie scored the same amount of points alone in the third quarter than the entire Pistons team scored (13). This speaks volumes on the defense that the Celtics are capable of playing.

Seeing Kyrie shoot 10 of 16 from the floor (4 of 7 from behind the line) is extremely encouraging as a Celtics fan. With his struggles from the floor all season, we all love that he has gotten back into things with a special game in a crunch-time moment.

The Celtics have had an answer for Blake Griffin

Photo courtesty @celticsblog

When the Celtics beat the Pistons on Saturday Night, 109-89, they held Blake Griffin to just 7 points. Not so much the case in this game, as Griffin led his team with a bruising 24 points and 15 rebounds.

Griffin had been pretty effective from beyond the three point line so far this year before his couple of games against the Celtics. Going into last nights game, he was 15 of 27 on the season from that range, getting basically any shot he wanted.

Griffin had never been that kind of a player, until last year, when he started taking more three’s. He still wasn’t a great three point shooter, but apparently it’s something he’s working very diligently at adding to his arsenal. This season, he’s been shooting lights out.

Part of the equation for Blake so far this year is no one has known how to defend him.  They can’t cover him like an above ground pool cover pump. He’s hitting three’s and driving to the basket. If you try to defend his three point shot, he drives around you to get the uncontested lay-up. What do you do as a defender?

The Celtics switched to Zone Defense.

The Celtics spent a lot of their time last night in a 3-2 zone. They know that Detroit really doesn’t have any serious perimeter shooting threats, and decided that they could place their four and five defending the low post. Because Jaylen Brown is an over-sized guard who can play forward, he could contest Griffin on any three he might try to take. If Griffin tried to drive around him, he would run into Jayson Tatum or Al Horford on the low post.

The Celtics are the first team so far this year who had an answer for Griffin, and held him to his two lowest point totals this season. In Griffin’s 3rd quarter shift, Detroit was -15 on the floor.  It’s truly special that Boston held him to 31 points in two games.

 Aron Baynes is a better player this year

Photo courtesy of @BostonSportsBSJ

We really weren’t sure what to expect from Aron Baynes this season. Last season, he was certainly a valuable defender, but I certainly didn’t expect to see the offensive output that Baynes has added to the bench.

To put into perspective, Baynes averaged 6 points per game last season. He was a board guy, took a three once every 3 games, and only hit 14.3% from that range.

This season, he’s hitting 40% from that range, and is averaging 8 points per game. I don’t think there is a game he hasn’t hit a 3 point shot in yet this season. He’s on fire from deep.

Baynes has been missed the last couple of games as he dealt with a hamstring injury. When Daniel Theis went down injured, Baynes was brought back to the active roster.

What a welcome addition, too. He scored 9 last night, 2nd most off the bench, and grabbed 5 boards, shooting 3 of 5 from the floor. Good to have you back on the court, Aron.

Overall…

Despite this ball game being a good bit closer than any of us wanted to see, the Celtics got the win, extended their win streak to 3, and get ready for an All Saints Day match-up with the Milwaukee Bucks on TNT, Thursday, November 1st. It should be a good one folks. Stay tuned.

Why Marcus Morris is Starting the Season Hotter Than Ever

Leave a reply

In the Boston Sports Extra Podcast – Celtics Edition, we always sign out the show with a hot take. It’s one of our favorite parts of the show. We get to make an off the wall prediction that, at the time, sounds crazy. Without that segment, I think our Celtics Edition episodes would not ever be complete.

A few episodes back, Travis and I both predicted that a Boston Celtics bench player would win 6th Man of the Year, but we both had two different players winning the award. He believes Terry Rozier has a fantastic chance, which is completely understandable. Rozier is the rising star on this bench, who seems to be getting better every night he steps out onto the court. He’s one hell of a scorer, and comes up with some crazy good defense despite his small frame.

I predicted Marcus Morris.

Travis must have thought I was crazy. Y’all probably did too. Marcus Morris is 29 years old this year, being thrust into a bench role for really the first time in his NBA career. Normally, being moved from starter to bench would be demoralizing to a player. After all, he’s started games everywhere he has went.

However, as a Boston Celtic, it’s a little bit different. Morris has responded with a resounding yes, becoming a better bench player then anyone could have anticipated him becoming.

How did Morris come to respond to this “adversity” so positively?

Understand that it wasn’t really a demotion

But was this really a demotion to the bench? Was this really adversity that Marcus Morris was dealing with?

Not exactly.

When Morris was traded to Boston last season, for Avery Bradley, Morris knew he was entering a situation where probably wouldn’t be starting. Hell, the Celtics already had a powerful forward lineup. Jaylen Brown was still considered a small forward, they had just signed Gordon Hayward and drafted Jayson Tatum. When Hayward went down in the opening game, Boston had to readjust their roster a good bit to make the rotations work. Morris benefited from the extra minutes.

He ended up appearing in 54 games, starting 21 of them, while averaging 26.8 minutes per game.

Now that Gordon Hayward has returned, Morris has taken more of a back seat, and he’s been more then willing to do so. Being on a team worthy of winning a championship will do that to people.

What skills has Marcus Morris brought to Boston?

Let’s face the facts. Morris is good enough to be a starter almost anywhere else across the league. He has a nasty three point shot, and brings good intensity and leadership on defense. Morris isn’t a little guy either, being every bit of 6’9″ and 235 pounds.

It seems that every time the opposition starts a good run and gains momentum, Morris comes down the court on a pull-up three and sinks it through the bottom of the net. He’s cold all the time, never letting the heat of the situation effect his play.

The even crazier fact? Morris is averaging slightly more points per game then Kyrie Irving is this season. Morris is banging home 14.3 points per game, along with his 7.2 rebounds and filthy 48.1% from behind the three point line through the first six games of the season. Best stat – he’s playing just 24.5 minutes per game, several minutes against other teams starters while playing extra minutes for Gordon Hayward.

What went off for Marcus Morris?

Remember how I mentioned above that the fact of the matter is Marcus Morris could go start almost anywhere else in the league? Let’s re-enforce this fact for a minute.

Would you start him in Houston with the Rockets? Carmelo Anthony and James Ennis is starting there right now at the forward spots.

What about with the Philadelphia 76ers? Robert Covington and Dario Saric start over there right now.

The Los Angeles Lakers? LeBron James and Brandon Ingram are starting there right now.

I don’t know about y’all, but I would start Marcus Morris over all of those guys… Except for LeBron, of course. Point is that Morris really could go start anywhere else in the league, even for championship-caliber rosters.

I’m fairly certain that Morris knows this himself. When he comes off of the bench, he’s taking on bench talent. Not everyone in the NBA has a loaded bench like Boston does, y’all. I know that’s hard to remember.

So when Morris comes off of the bench, he’s the best forward on the court. It allows him to dominate at a level that he never has before. That’s why this season is starting so hot for Morris.

What to expect the rest of the season

My expectations say that you shouldn’t expect him to slow down. Once Gordon Hayward get’s back to his thirty minutes per game, Morris won’t be playing hardly any time against opposing teams starters. Possibly, just maybe, Morris will produce even more in that role.

If I were Morris, I would be very excited about my role with this team. Morris is the difference maker on this team this season, and relies on him more then people realize. The team will rise and fall with him.

That’s the true definition of a 6th Man in the NBA.

Gordon Hayward Pleases Boston Faithful in Return

Leave a reply

Gordon Hayward returned to the court for the first time during a regular season, against the Philadelphia 76ers, since his ankle injury in the opening game of the 2017-18 season against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Almost a full year has passed since the last time Gordon Hayward had played a regular season or post season game.

Hayward played just 25 minutes, scoring 10 points, collecting 5 rebounds and gathering 4 steals. Hayward’s real impact on the game was his defense, as he currently leads the league with a defensive rating of 74. His defense came up huge at several points of the game and pushed Boston ahead to the 105-87 victory.

Even though the stat sheet isn’t the most enthralling, we are very pleased with the performance Gordon Hayward put forward. Here are the good things we liked.

The Confidence Came Back

Hayward started slowly and cautiously when the game began, definitely holding back and being very careful with his ankle. That’s to be expected, a player doesn’t want to suffer the same horrid injury twice. However, as the game progressed, you saw the confidence coming back and the extra hop to his step. Hayward came alive and it was fantastic.

Confidence is what we really want to see from Hayward. He needs to be comfortable on his ankle top take his game to the next level. We know how good he actually is, now we want to see him get back to the player we saw for years playing in Utah.

His Defense is Still Great

Embed from Getty Images

As mentioned earlier, Gordon played his mind out on defense. He had 4 steals and shut down the people he faced against. To put into perspective, Robert Covington started at small forward against him. Covington finished the game at -11 on the field. Ouch. Covington shot 3 of 10 and scored 8 points. Hayward took on Ben Simmons at points of the game and looked solid. He played great defense.

Defense is what head coach Brad Stevens has hung his hat upon for years. Now, his star player, not even at 100% yet, is playing tough defense. That’s extremely bright for our man.

He Got Better as the Game Progressed

Hayward started slow, notching his first couple of steals earlier in the day, but being very limited offensively. As the game progressed, his offense ramped up and he finished his night with a bullet three point shot. He was shaking off the rust throughout the game, and that is encouraging.

The final thought on this from us here at Boston Sports Extra: Hayward is getting better, and within the next few weeks his minute restriction should be lifted. It’s a great time to be a Boston Celtics fan!

I’m Concerned About the Gordon Hayward Injury – You Should Be Too

Leave a reply

Gordon Hayward is supposed to return to the Boston Celtics this season after missing all but five minutes of last season with a broken ankle. The former Utah Jazz star is expected to be a major part of this offense as the number two scoring option on the court.

Hayward appeared in three of the team’s four preseason games, playing 59 minutes and scoring just 21 points. He shot .250 from the floor, and .100 from deep. Now, reports have surfaced that he is dealing with a back issue, some “minor” pain in his back.

As much as some Celtics fans want to downplay this, this is an important issue that is concerning. Come on, John, you guys must be saying. You’ve been saying it’s just the preseason! Just relax!

While the stats don’t cause my concern, they help prove my concerns are legitimate. Here is why I am concerned about Gordon Hayward’s back injury, and why you should be too.

Gordon Hayward’s ankle injury

Embed from Getty Images

I’m certainly not trying to sound like a broken record, but this ankle injury Hayward suffered last season was absolutely brutal. Not only was his ankle broken, the muscles were twisted, snapped and contorted. Gordon Hayward didn’t walk for two months after the injury.

When an individual suffers an injury to that extent, they have to learn to walk again. Hayward had to retrain himself to walk, run, jump and shoot a basketball. The injury forced him to restart his career, and that’s the reality of the situation.

Confidence is critical

Embed from Getty Images

Confidence is indeed very crucial. It’s hard for a player to perform at the same level he did before when he is worried about how one of his legs will hold up. It’s not out of the ordinary to say that Gordon is worried about his ankle. You see him when he takes a shot. He doesn’t go up and command the shot like we are used to seeing him do. He looks timid and frightened.

If my ankle had busted the way it did less than a year ago, I would be too! Don’t think I am ragging the man, it’s natural to feel that way. However, the reality of this is that he won’t be a star if his confidence isn’t there. He will end up being an odd man out that Boston is overpaying.

He needs to feel comfortable on his ankle and have some confidence in it holding up before he can return to top form. I can almost promise you that his ankle doesn’t feel like he remembers. That’s because it is different, it’s completely rebuilt.

How does the back pain factor in?

Embed from Getty Images

Ah, yes. The back pain.

Have you ever played basketball for a few hours without stopping? If you have, you probably remember that it was fun until you drove home, plopped down on the couch and watched a movie or read a book, then tried to stand back up. Your legs become very sore. In your ankles probably, your calves for sure. Your legs might somewhat resemble jello.

Did your back ever hurt?

When players suffer back pain, there’s normally a reason for it. Maybe he fell on his back during a practice or a game and needs to get his spine realigned a little. Maybe he pulled a muscle and was just sore.

Or maybe something is wrong with his ankle.

Doctors perform these type of surgeries all of the time. However, you don’t really know how well the procedure went until it’s over and the patient is walking. Did something go wrong? Is his ankle not feeling right?

Any foot issues that an individual deals with usually affects the individual’s back. If someone is experiencing back pain, a doctor normally prescribes foot inserts for their feet. The way we walk, stand, run, jump and move on our feet impact the health of our back.

If something isn’t right in his ankle, it would explain why he is experiencing back pain.

Final Thoughts

I’m not saying that this speculation is fact, it could just be that Gordon Hayward has pulled a back muscle or maybe he just fell victim to a bad fall on his back in practice. I think people trying to downplay this as nothing aren’t looking into the situation enough. We all want Hayward to be healthy. So far, he has been everything but with the Celtics.

Teams like to downplay injuries all of the time, and it very well could be what the Celtics are doing. I am concerned, and you should be too.

Is Now a Time to Panic about the Celtics?

Leave a reply

The Boston Celtics have limped through the 2018 preseason thus far, starting 1-3 with a loss to the Charlotte Hornets and two losses to the LeBron-less Cleveland Cavaliers. Some Celtics fans are in panic. It is the preseason, but some of the losses haven’t been close! Is it time to start worrying about the Celtics season?

What the Preseason is

Embed from Getty Images

The preseason is simply what the word says it is. It’s the Preseason. The games before the season starts when rosters are fixing to trim down to fifteen players, when the kinks are being worked out and the chemistry put together as the players learn how to utilize each other among the new additions. The preseason isn’t designed to be very much more then that.

Boston had prepared for a new player last season, Gordon Hayward, and he lasted all of five minutes before going down with an awful ankle injury. Because of that, Hayward is really a new player on this roster. None of the guys have spent much time on the court with him, and he is rehabbing an injury.

What are the issues so far?

Embed from Getty Images

That being said, the Celtics have shown potential issues so far on the court. Hayward doesn’t look fully confident in his ankle yet. Sometimes when he goes up for a shot, he almost expects to come down tweaking something. That’s natural. His ankle was literally bent out of place when he went down with an injury. Without confidence, shooting percentage will go down.

With Hayward not playing confident yet, he almost seems to be out of place on this squad. This team is incredibly confident and poised to make a deep playoff run, and definitely seem to be looking at a championship run.

Brad Stevens seems to know this, and is pushing more minutes on him to get him more comfortable on the court. Confidence is contagious, and there really is no reason to believe why Hayward won’t get back to mid-season form.

The positives this squad is showing

Embed from Getty Images

Where to begin? I know some people are looking at the Celtics record right now, and it’s not pretty. Again, it’s preseason. Players are “sleepwalking” through the games, trying to avoid serious injuries and prepare for the season grind coming up.

Kyrie Irving looks healthy. It’s the first time I have ever written that in my short time doing basketball coverage, and it feels good to say. He says he’s not in pain for the first time since before he came to Boston. He has been very explosive going to the basket.

Marcus Morris looks primed to have a career year off of the bench. He’s been a beast so far, hitting a lot of threes so far in limited time this preseason. Jayson Tatum looks ready to take the next step in his progression. Jaylen Brown has led the team in scoring almost every night so far. That’s not mentioning Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier, who have been good too. Everyone is hitting all of the boxes we wanted to see, and the Celtics look really good.

Is it time to panic?

Some people pay too much attention to statistics and not enough attention to what’s going on downstairs on the hardwood. The Celtics look really good. They’re not playing 100% right now because there is no reason too. Nobody in NBA circles are fooled, though, and will be bringing their A-Game every time they step out on the court against these guys.

No, Celtics Nation. Now is not the time to panic. It’s preseason. The scoreboard is almost meaningless in preseason, and it shows no indication of the upcoming season. If the preseason had mattered last year, Boston would have been favored to play the Utah Jazz in the NBA Finals. The year before, it would have been the Atlanta Hawks and the Golden State Warriors.

One more thing: The Cavaliers went 1-4 last preseason, the Golden State Warriors went 2-2. Preseason records mean nothing.

Don’t panic guys. This team is going to be great.

Patriots Film Study: Pats Pound Dolphins in Miami

Leave a reply

It’s amazing to me how negative the media can be after a tough loss. As media journalists and analysts, everyone should have known right away that the Patriots were going to bounce back against a divisional opponent and a crucial game to the playoff positioning of the team. Sure, they’re 2-2 now, but the Pats started 2-2 last season, as well. That didn’t stop them last year, did it? Thank God for a 38-7 win over the Miami Dolphins to silence the critics for a little while.

The Patriots are still the best team in the AFC. Nobody has the caliber and number of weapons that Bill Belichick has in New England, nor the ability to find weapons like Belichick. Before we start diving into the film from this week, let’s look at the players who scored touchdowns this week:

Do any of these players look like dangerous threats if they are playing for other football teams? Probably not.

Bill Belichick uses his players to their absolute strengths. It’s one of the many things that makes ‘ole Bill special. Because of that trait, it makes absolutely zero sense why the media should go after this team over a 2-2 start.

Oh yeah, and Julian Edelman returns this week.

Let’s dive into this film.

Play One: 2nd Quarter, 12:11

Patriots ball. 3rd and 6 from the New England 45. Patriots lead 3-0.

The Patriots always do their homework. Bill Belichick hires young wanna be scouts and coaches to watch tape forty hours a week, a strategy that is very well documented by the media. He knows that if he stretches the Dolphins and forces them into a nickel or dime package, he is going to have mismatches. In this case, it’s the left side of the formation (bottom of the screen).

Tom Brady knows that he has the Dolphins in man coverage. On the bottom of the screen, James White lines up wide with Cordarrelle Patterson in the slot. The rookie safety from Alabama, Minkah Fitzpatrick, is on James White while Patterson is covered by Xavien Howard.

Fitzpatrick plays free safety normally. In this case, he’s being used as the nickelback. TJ McDonald is the only safety back, as they are paying cover one to drape over the man coverage below. What the play is designed to do is set a pick at the bottom of the screen. The wide receiver slants inside and sits as a dump off option. The slot guy runs a fade pattern outside, and the unwitting man coverage will most likely let him slip by unnoticed.

What happened?

Embed from Getty Images

Fitzpatrick did exactly what the Patriots hoped. He played White down low instead of switching to Patterson. Because the Patriots had another deep route attacking the middle of the field, McDonald over the top didn’t notice Patterson leak out. The end result? A wide open Cordarrelle Patterson with one man to beat in a thirty yard footrace.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

This is the type of work that Belichick does so well. He finds his mismatches in the film room, finds ways to bring them onto the field, and then has a quarterback in Tom Brady who is so smart that he can make the decisions on the field.

Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a vital player on the Dolphin defense all season, and has looked very solid on the field, but Belichick knows he’s a rookie and is liable to make mistakes. Brady cashed in on that one too.

Play Two: 3rd Quarter, 6:55

Patriots ball. 3rd and 4 from the Miami 14. Patriots lead 24-0.

The Patriots really like this five wide look on third down. Now, they’re going to send a receiver to every level of the field. The Dolphins are playing a zone coverage with four deep players, and three underneath. That means that they are trying to protect against a touchdown. The Patriots know they have zone, even though it’s disguised and it looks like cover two, and the play call works perfectly into that.

There are a few certain routes that are known as “Zone Busters” that receivers run to be more effective against zone. The post and slant are both zone busting routes as they generally slip between multiple zones. An in route would be a good zone buster, too. This play is designed to penetrate through zone coverage.

What happened?

When a defense is playing zone coverage, zone integrity is everything. What does that mean? Easy – Stay in your zone and read the quarterback. The double post route from the left side (bottom screen) made things very confusing for the defense. Then, they had another deep post route coming from the right (top of the screen) and that made everything worse.

Safety Maurice Smith, a second year player out of Georgia, was suppose to play the left corner of the end zone. Instead, he drifted right with the double post. James White leaked out of the backfield and was wide open, and Smith knew exactly what he had done. It was too late.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

What a throw by Brady to hit White in stride with a defensive player about to blow him up. That 41-year-old man keeps making the same throws we’ve seen for years!

Let’s look into the very near future

Embed from Getty Images

This week, the Patriots get back Julian Edelman. This offense is about to be borderline unstoppable. The addition of Josh Gordon from the Cleveland Browns is going to be explosive. He played his first game in a Patriots uniform on Sunday, and looked good in his couple of catches. Sony Michel just ran for over 100 yards. James White had over 100 yards from scrimmage. Rob Gronkowski will have Gordon as a downfield threat and Edelman as a valuable threat out of the slot.

Anyone still diving off of this bandwagon?

Patriots Film Study: Positives Shines in Loss to Lions

Leave a reply

The New England Patriots suffered a serious loss to the Detroit Lions on prime time Sunday Night Football on NBC. A humiliating 26-10 loss to an 0-2 team can rock an organization, especially when the opposing team is headed by a former employee. While the loss may have been extremely humbling, there were several positives to take away from the contest. Let’s dive into a few of these plays.

Play One: 2nd Quarter, 3:16

Patriots Ball. 2nd and 10 from the New England 36. Lions lead 13-0

It took a while for the Patriots offense to even begin moving the football. They opened up the game with three consecutive three-and-outs before managing a field goal drive down the field to end the first half. The fifth play of the field goal drive, New England fresh off of their first 1st down of the game, the Patriots lined up in an unbalanced line to the left of the formation.

An unbalanced line is a challenge to a defense if they are lining up in a zone defense. It puts the majority of the play-makers on one side of the field, forcing the defense to pick and choose who to cover. On this play, running back James White is lined up at the top of the screen, Chris Hogan is in the slot, while Rob Gronkowski is lined up in the H-Back spot. Rex Burkhead is to the left of Brady. Tight end Dwayne Allen is anchored on the right side of the line.

White is going to run a “clear-out” go route down the field, taking the immediate attention of the safety, who is not pictured. Hogan runs a stick route, where he settles into the zones underneath or in between the linebackers. Gronk runs a deep out and attacks the cornerback playing low, in this case that would be Quandre Diggs. Because Diggs expects Burkhead to swing out of the backfield, he is going to leave both White and Gronk to the safeties, thinking the help on the back end will cover them.

What happened?

https://twitter.com/ftbeard_17/status/1044034847444881408

The cornerback did exactly what Belichick wanted him to. He waited for Burkhead to leak out of the backfield. Instead, Tom Brady had all day to let the play develop and Gronk was wide open for 15 yards. The safety wasn’t in position to cut off his route because of the deep go that White ran down the sideline.

The bright spots here: Brady had all day to throw on this play, and for the most part of this game. When Gronk isn’t bodied relentlessly, he reminds us why he is the best tight end in football. He finds those spots in between the zones and is a tough man to bring down in the secondary.

Play Two: 3rd Quarter, 13:34

Patriots Ball. 1st and 10 from the New England 48. Lions lead 13-3.

New England took the field for the first time in the second half after forcing the Lions offense into a turnover, a horrible interception by Matthew Stafford. I know that Sony Michel has taken some heat in the Boston media for not producing early, but this play should make you feel a little bit better about him.

This is a simple toss play. It’s designed to get a running back into space and pick his way for a few extra yards. The edge is sealed by the receivers (Cordarelle Patterson and Gronk) and then the left guard pulls to the outside and becomes the lead blocker for the running back. Nothing extravagant.

This is where Michel makes his money. From what we know of his days splitting time in the Georgia backfield with Nick Chubb, Michel is electric in space.

What happened?

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaUKDOkhjVQ?rel=0&showinfo=0&start=317]

Michel had space, and he managed to pick his way through the Lions defenders for 12 yards. This is what Sony Michel normally looks like on the field. His main issue so far has been that he missed the entire preseason due to an injury, and the first game of the season. He’s being asked to be the focal point of the running game in just his second game of NFL action and out of mid-season form.

He’s explosive and electric in space. You can only image what he will look like as the season progresses.

Play Three: 3rd Quarter, 10:10

Patriots Ball. 3rd and 8 from the Detroit 10. Lions lead 13-3.

Later that drive, the Patriots find themselves in a third and medium inside the red zone. Down by 10, they need at least a first down. The Patriots are going to go to that overload to the left side of the field again, only this time Gronk and White both line up to the right. The Lions are showing a simple cover two, meaning that the safeties are defending halves of the end zone.

Gronk is double covered here. The Lion’s best cornerback, Darius Slay, is the man up on Gronk with the red line. The safety, a former Patriot himself, Tavon Wilson, anticipates Gronk going to the end zone. He is the other coverage, represented by the yellow line. James White ends up getting covered by the nickelback, Quandre Diggs.

What happened?

White made a nice double move and gained a step on Diggs. Because Gronk was indeed going for the end zone, there wasn’t a safety to help Diggs on the back-end to cut off the route. All Brady had to do was lay the pass nicely in the breadbasket of White, which he delivered perfectly. It’s a touchdown every time.

Gronk can be such a valuable decoy. Teams know how critical he can be in the red zone and will put too much effort to cover him up and not allow the play to go anywhere near him. Players like White, Michel, Hogan and Julian Edelman (when he returns from his four game PED suspension) can seriously capitalize off of the attention put on Gronk.

Other Notes: Brady, Edelman, and Gronk

Brady still has a cannon

Tom Brady has withstood Father Time better than any quarterback in modern NFL history. Now at 41 years old, he looks like he has another good year left in him, possibly even two. Brady let this bomb go deep in the fourth quarter. Even though it was incomplete, it shows off what kind of Cannon he still has.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaUKDOkhjVQ?rel=0&showinfo=0&start=590]

The offense without Julian Edelman

This offense is truly struggling without Julian Edelman. The receivers can’t seem to get open, and although the offensive line can give Tom Brady all day to make a throw, the receivers can’t get in space for him to pull the trigger. Teams right now can afford to body up Rob Gronkowski, because they don’t have much else of a downfield threat. I’m warning you, this offense is going to look completely different once Edelman gets back.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Shutting down Gronk

The NBC crew did a great job showing this on their broadcast of the game. The Lions double covered Rob Gronkowski for almost the entire game. The worst part is that the rest of Brady’s receiving options couldn’t get open even with the attention taken away from them.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

To summarize, the Lions simply out-coached the Patriots. Despite knowing this, we all know how Bill Belichick is. He is going to come back in full force next week, and game plan something great for their upcoming match-up next week on the road against the 3-0 Miami Dolphins. It’s early in the season, and we see this every year. They’ll be in mid-season form soon enough.

Kyrie Irving Drama Comes To End – Or Not

2 Replies

These past couple of weeks have been swamped by possible trade talks surrounding star Minnesota Timberwolves guard Jimmy Butler and our very own Celtics point guard Kyrie Irving. This has been a topic almost overtaken by “Hot Take Heaven”, as everyone seems to have their own opinion about what team Butler and Irving will join up with. While it’s an intriguing topic to cover, we need to “About Face!” and come back to reality.

Kyrie Irving won’t be traded this season.

Kyrie Irving has been dropping us hints through his interviews and media day appearances, all but revealing to us his plan for the future. Let’s break these things down and put together the clues he has left us.

The Jackie MacMullan Interview

Embed from Getty Images

Kyrie recently did an interview with ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan, who asked him about the rumors surrounding him and Jimmy Butler possibly joining with a team to play together. He informed her that they have had no such discussions since 2016 – When they were playing together on the USA Team and discussing the future in a practice session.

That’s believable. Players are going to shoot around basketballs and spitball about playing together in the NBA. Generations have done it on the playground and there is no reason to disbelieve that star NBA players do it on the USA Team competing overseas.

“Who wouldn’t want to be a part of this?” Kyrie asked, motioning to the great history of the Celtics franchise. It is a franchise rich with championship history and full of great players. Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Paul Pierce and Kevin McHale headline several of the players that have come through the ranks for Boston. 17 Finals championships and 22 retired numbers hang in the rafters. He’s absolutely right, who wouldn’t want to be a part of this?

That begs the question for the rumors. Why won’t he commit to Boston?

Financial Restrictions

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Kyrie Irving is arguably the best point guard in the league at this current time. His scoring ability is out of this world, especially when he is healthy and attacking the basket. He hit .408 from beyond the three point line last season, and averaged 24.4 points per game and 5.1 assists. He is undoubtedly a top tier point guard in the league.

Kyrie Irving deserves to be paid as one, and he knows it.

Boston is in a world of pain when it comes to future contracts that they need to have figured out. Jayson Tatum will be getting a huge paycheck come his time to sign an extension. They want Jaylen Brown around. Marcus Smart is tied up for four more years. Gordon Hayward is under a huge contract for another three years. Al Horford is under his huge contract for three more years, as well. While Kyrie is under a player option next season, it’s very easy to assume that he won’t accept it as it’s about half of the going rate for a payer of his caliber.

To re-sign Kyrie, someone is going to have to go, or some agreement will have to be made. The question becomes, what will it be?

Media Days

Embed from Getty Images

The Celtics media day on Monday filled Celtics fans with optimism and hope. There were a lot of great and encouraging statements made by several of the players. However, Kyrie made some comments when he took the podium.

“I believe Boston is the place for me,” he said, before throwing a little shade. “Obviously it’s everybody else’s job to look forward to my future before I can, so I just really thought it was important to make sure it’s known that this franchise is really built for the next few years of being at the top-tier of teams in the league.”

So that ends it, right? He’s going to stay in Boston, right?

No, I don’t believe this solves everything.

What do you expect the man to do?

Embed from Getty Images

Kyrie Irving can do two things as a Boston Celtic. He can either be happy to be where he is as the focal point of the offense, or he can demand a trade to a team that will pay him. He hurt his image when he asked to be traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers and LeBron James. So what do you expect the man to do?

Kyrie wants to play basketball. It’s a long off-season and it’s been longer for him because he missed all of March and the playoffs. He doesn’t want the typical Boston Press drama surrounding him all season about playing on another team.

Of course, Kyrie is going to say that he wants to stay in Boston. I genuinely believe him, too. I think he does. However, he understands that with the cap issues, there is a chance the two sides might not come to an agreement. He doesn’t want the media talking about that all season long. Kyrie wants the media focusing on his play, his team, how well they mesh together and how legendary this team could end up being.

So stop talking about Kyrie trade rumors and Jimmy Butler reunions. Start talking about this year and trust the Celtics’ ability to keep stars around forever.

We should all take on Kyrie’s approach to the topic and tackle this when it comes. First, Boston’s got a championship to win.

How Many Points Can You Expect the Celtics to Score This Season?

Leave a reply

The Boston Celtics are primed to have a huge year in the Eastern Conference, and anything less then a Finals appearance will be a disappointment for the franchise. The team is loaded with not only stars but depth talent. One of the best scorers in the game plays the point guard with Kyrie Irving, and two up and coming young players (Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum) are working their way among the leagues elite. Oh, and don’t forget about the former Utah Jazz star, Gordon Hayward.

I have put together a formula for predicting how players will perform by game, and what you can expect to see over the course of the season. In our latest Celtics podcast here, I made a hot take where I said that we could expect a healthy Celtics team to score 130 points per game.

I think I’m going to walk that back a little bit. However, I think it is reasonable to expect the Celtics to score 120.

The Expectancy Rating formula

The formula is all about numbers. I firmly believe there are three stages of a players career. They are either rising, at their peak, or falling. The expectancy rating formula factors that. Let’s talk about the stages.

Rising

When a player is rising, he is expected to score more points then he averages over his career per game. Here’s the first example I will use: Kyrie Irving.

Irving currently averages 22.0 points per game. I think it’s easy to assume he is still on the rise, playing at a high level in this league. After adding the rise factor, we can expect Kyrie to score 25.3 points per game.

Peak

Embed from Getty Images

When a player has hit his peak, I expect him to meet his career averages. Great example for the season: Gordon Hayward.

Hayward averages 15.6 points per game in his career. With his ankle injury last year, I think it’s easy to assume that he might not hit that number and that 15.6 points are his maximum he can bring to the table.

Fall

When a player has passed his prime, his season per game averages generally falls under his career averages. A great example of this is Al Horford.

Horford was 31 years old last season. Going into last season, Horford averaged 14.3 points per game when he joined the Celtics. Last season, he scored 12.9 per game. He has hit his peak, and now we can’t expect him to score as many points per season.

How accurate is this expectancy rating?

Embed from Getty Images

I ran these numbers on the seasons past, checking the Celtics numbers for three seasons between 2014-15 to 2016-17. It’s surprisingly reasonable and accurate.

In the 2014-15 season, the expectancy rating was 98.3 points per game. Boston averaged 101.4 points per game, a 3.1 point difference from the expectancy rating.

In the 2015-16 season, the expectancy rating was 103.8 points per game. Boston averaged 105.7 points, a 1.9 point difference.

In the 2016-17 season, the expectancy rating was 106 points per game. Boston averaged 108 per game that season, a 2 point difference.

Point is, the expectancy rating is almost under what can be expected. It’s compiled by the top nine players on the team, where the starters, the 6th man and three role players adjusted totals are added together to put the rating together. Because a lot of teams play ten or even eleven man rotations, there are always going to be a couple of points that are missing. The rating is a reasonable expectation.

What can we expect this season?

Embed from Getty Images

There are so many stars on this team that if they stay healthy, Celtics are going to score a lot of points. I think each of the starters can be expected to score at least 12 points per game, and the bench is going to score a lot too.

The expectancy rating has the Celtics scoring 115 points per game. It could easily be higher. 120 points per game aren’t out of the equation.

The NBA Record is held by the Denver Nuggets team from 1981-82. In that season, on a team featuring players like Alex English, Dan Issel and Kiki Vandeweghe, the Nuggets averaged 126.5 points per game.

If things go Boston’s way, they are going to make a run at that record. Just you wait.