Tag Archives: Aaron Donald

The X-Factors of Super Bowl 53

From Malcolm Butler to David Tyree to Tracy Porter, Super Bowls are often home to small time players making gargantuan plays. Butler’s pick, Tyree’s catch (that shouldn’t have been a catch if the referees called ‘in-the-grasp’ on Manning before the throw, but water under the bridge), and Porter’s pick-six on Peyton Manning are some of the many examples of this. These are the players that don’t get an entire segment dedicated to them on NFL Network. They don’t get the most popular podium on Opening Night, or even any podium for that matter. But, these players, or X-factors, are more often than not the heroes of the Super Bowl.

The Patriots and Rams are both star-studded on either side of the ball. Names like: Aaron Donald, Julian Edelman, Todd Gurley, Stephon Gilmore are just a few of the Pro-Bowlers on both rosters. Players of this caliber are expected to show up, have a big game, and be in the running for Super Bowl MVP.

However, every so often, a player on the bottom of the depth chart comes out of nowhere. They come off the bench and can either be the hero or the villain who isn’t welcomed back into the city afterwards. This is usually the difference between a team winning and a team losing. There are of course blowout games like Super Bowl 48 where Seattle didn’t need any depth players to come through. Although, as Patriots fans, we know to not expect a blowout in the Super Bowl. X-factors will be needed in this Super Bowl for both teams, the question is who are these players?

Will another Malcolm Butler type player show up in Super Bowl 53?

Here’s a list of some of the potential X-factors for both teams that could shape how this game turns out:

Rex Burkhead, RB Patriots

Off the bat, you may think Burkhead doesn’t fit the description of an X-factor. He is of course coming off a two touchdown game against the Chiefs in the title game. However, when you take a closer look at that game, Burkhead didn’t play so well. He had 41 yards on 12 attempts and was stopped on a crucial fourth down in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t until the end of the game where Rex really began to break through with the two TD runs.

Against the Rams, expect Sony Michel to get a majority of the touches when the Patriots are in the “I” formation and when Tom Brady goes under center. The Patriots have had a lot of success with Michel in these packages the past few games and shouldn’t deviate too much. James White will once again be the primary third down back, being more of a receiver than runner.

So where does that leave Burkhead? In the past, he has been used either when Michel needed a break or in specific circumstances. He won’t get the number of touches that Michel will, but it’s what he can do with his touches that make him an X-factor. The Rams will be prepared for Michel’s style of running and should have a plan in place to stop him. If Burkhead can come in with some different looks on offense and gain chunks of yards, that will be a huge difference in how the Patriots offense runs.

Rex Burkhead scored two go-ahead touchdowns in the AFC title game and needs to replicate that performance to set up the Patriots offense.

Josh Reynolds, WR Rams

Los Angeles has quietly one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. Cooks, as most Patriots fans know, is incredibly fast and a legitimate deep threat. Woods is a terrific complement to Cooks with the way he’s able to get separation in the slot, similar to Edelman. New England should have a similar gameplan in place to deal with Cooks as they did with Tyreek Hill. One cornerback lined up with Cooks with immediate safety help over the top is the look I would expect. With Woods, Stephon Gilmore should be able to shadow him effectively.

Next on the Rams depth chart: Josh Reynolds. Reynolds hasn’t had a monster year, garnering just over 400 yards, but it’s not his stats that are worrisome. He stands at 6’3″ and will likely not be given a whole lot of attention compared to the other two LA receivers. 4 years ago in Super Bowl 49, New England faced a similar threat in Chris Matthews. He was third or fourth on Seattle’s depth chart but made play after play thanks to his height and Kyle Arrington covering him.

Jason McCourty or J.C. Jackson will likely draw the responsibility of guarding Reynolds. Jared Goff has been trusting him more and more this postseason and if he has a big game, it could spell disaster for New England.

Samson Ebukam, LB Rams

Linebacker isn’t one of the Rams strongest positions on the defensive side. Pro-Bowler (for special teams) Cory Littleton is their best linebacker, but other than that there’s not too much overflowing talent. However, one of Tom Brady’s weakest points in his game is his inability at times to see the cover linebacker. Last week in the AFC title game he threw a pick directly to linebacker Reggie Ragland in the endzone. In Super Bowl 49 Bobby Wagner intercepted Brady and two weeks before in the AFC title game D’Qwell Jackson jumped in front of a ball meant for Gronk (which started Deflategate).

Samson Ebukam is an outside, cover linebacker for the Rams that nearly picked off Dak Prescott in the Divisional round. He has multiple touchdowns on the year, two against Kansas City, and is very quick moving. Given the right situation, he has the potential to cause Brady some trouble with Wade Phillips calling the plays.

Samson Ebukam has a couple of interceptions on the season so Tom Brady will need to be on the lookout for number 50.

Deatrich Wise Jr. or Adrian Clayborn, DE Patriots

So far in the postseason Deatrich Wise Jr. has been inactive. Against the Chargers he had a nagging ankle injury but he was a healthy scratch for the AFC title game. Adrian Clayborn got the nod over him and played decent, but didn’t make any spectacular plays.

In order for the Patriots to keep having the pass rush success they’ve been having, they need to get more productivity from the other DE position. Trey Flowers can’t do it all by himself, even though at times he seems like he can. Whoever is active between the two, because its been one or the other thus far, needs to get to Goff. He isn’t a running quarterback so there should be no excuse for not pressuring him.

Rushing the passer is the main reason the Patriots have had so much success on defense this postseason. If they want to take home the Lombardi, they will need to find a way past the Rams offensive line. Accomplish that, and L.A. head coach Sean McVay will be sweating in his khakis.

Trey Flowers’ Future as a Patriot

Amidst the hectic chaos of the NFL cut downs two seismic events rocked the landscape. Aaron Donald completed the largest contract extension ever for a defensive player on Friday, August 31st. Then football fans woke up to the news that Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack is a Chicago Bear. We all expected another mega-contract signing to follow. While I waited for confirmation of the financial terms of these, one of my thoughts was “What does this mean for the Patriots’ chances of re-signing defensive end Trey Flowers?”

 

The contract details proved to be earth shattering for non-quarterbacks in a way that resets the market economics. Donald signed a six-year $135 million dollar deal with $87 million guaranteed. Khalil Mack received a slightly richer deal at $141 million for six years with $90 million guaranteed. These deals truly reset the defensive line market and will affect contract negotiations for years to come.

I’m not saying that Trey Flowers will be signing this kind of deal for the Patriots anytime soon. Mack and Donald were selected with the #5 and #13 pick overall in the 2014 draft and Flowers was drafted in the fourth round at #101 overall. Flowers has 13.5 sacks and 107 tackles through largely two seasons of work and both Mack and Donald have more than doubled that through four full seasons. What it does is force the contract values to rise with each new signing. The bar at the top has risen and the middle class and high-middle class rises with it. Trey Flowers can expect to sign a deal in that middle class area. The question becomes- are the Patriots willing to offer one to their best defensive lineman since Chandler Jones?

The Patriot Way

Chandler Jones. Many will point to him and fellow Patriot Jamie Collins in their argument that the Patriots are a cheap team in contract negotiations. This is false in many ways which I will not get into here. That’s for another time. They have a very rigid sense of the internal valuation of a player’s skill set and are not willing to go beyond that very often. In the event that they feel they will not be able to negotiate a contract that matches the team’s expectation with the player’s, they will seek to get maximum return on a departing player. Whether this means trading for draft assets or players or allowing them to leave in free agency.

Will they do this with Trey Flowers? His contract expires following the end of this season and with reinforcements along the line he could see his impact rise. This would put him in line for a major payday. Jason Pierre-Paul, Stephon Tuitt, Everson Griffen, Calais Campbell, and Danielle Hunter have all signed deals that have averaged just under 15 million per year. The franchise tag for defensive ends was $17.1 million. Demarcus Lawrence and Ezekial Ansah will play out the season under it. This all points to an explosion of contract value for young pass rushers.

 

Trey Flowers as a Pass Rusher

If Trey Flowers dominates again this season and the Patriots are comfortable, could they actually entertain the thought of trading the budding young star? The 2 first round picks that the Raiders received in the swap will certainly give them pause. Jamie Collins was traded in a surprising bye week trade to the Cleveland Browns. The team has re-stocked the pass rush with young Derek Rivers returning and signing veteran Adrian Clayborn. Now mind you, I am not advocating this course of action, but it is a possibility. We have seen Belichick remove a player that in the short-term could cause pain for the long-term gain. Collins, Jones, Moss, and Seymour have all found themselves packing their bags very quickly when the situation warranted a move.

If the young pass-rusher takes a step forward and sees his value increase, he will definitely be looking at a market that will pay him upwards of $15.5 million per year.  Can the Patriots afford this? A rough estimation shows that they have over $168 million allocated for just 44 players. It shows that the organization will have to be frugal and cautious in their financial dealings. The proclivity for Belichick and company to adopt a year to year approach also supports a wait and see approach.

What can we expect?

The ball is in Trey Flower’s court. I’m sure some rough numbers and desires have been exchanged and both sides know where the other stands. You can expect that if he has a stellar year and meshes with the new personnel you’ll see his dollar figure rise with each sack. For me that increases the likelihood that we see him walk in free agency. I plan on enjoying this season and hope every member gets to be fitted for a shiny new ring before that happens.

All photos courtesy of Getty images unless noted otherwise. All contract figures came from Spotrac.com

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