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Red Sox Hang On, Draw First Blood in ALDS

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A few quick thoughts on the return of Red Sox-Yankees postseason baseball, right after I hand out some high fives to Will, Chuckie, Morgan, and Billy…

What a way to kick things off, huh? The Sox jumped out early, and managed to hang on for a 5-4 win to take Game 1 at Fenway Park. Boston hit the ground running, thanks to a 3-run laser over the Monster from JD Martinez:

From there, the Sox seemed like they were on cruise control, extending the lead to 5-0 after plating a couple more runs in the third. Everything was working in their favor early. Guys were getting on base. Alleged “Red Sox Killer” JA Happ was bounced after 2+ innings. Chris Sale was dealing.

Then, Alex Cora decided to take his ace out in the top of the 6th, and it all (almost) went to hell.

I completely understand the logic behind pulling Sale. He wasn’t right all September, and the plan all season long has been to conserve the lanky lefty as much as possible. Sale also had allowed two hits already that inning, and had thrown 93 pitches (his highest total since July 27th).

On the flip side, Sale was nearly untouchable while he was in the game. His much scrutinized fastball velocity returned to the 94-96 mph range, after sitting in the low 90s during his final regular season start. His slider was in peak form, both in terms of break and placement:

Sale was charged with 2 runs in 5.1 innings, while striking out 8. All things considered, it was a great bounce back performance from his last postseason start. However, it wasn’t enough for Cora to trust him to work out of a 6th inning jam.

The Yankees immediately stormed back with Sale out, while Ryan Brasier and Brandon Workman took turns spiking curves 8 feet in front of home plate. To Workman’s credit, he did manage to stop the sixth inning bleeding with a BALLSY 3-2 hook to Gleyber Torres with the bases juiced.

Cora stuck with Workman to start the 7th, and he promptly gave up a pair of singles to Andrew McCutchen and Aaron Judge. Enter Matt Barnes, who then walked Brett Gardner to load the bases.

Barnes eventually was able to slither out of trouble, allowing only one run to score on a fielder’s choice.

All of this is to say that things were so indescribably shaky that Cora felt the need to bring in former AL Cy Young Award winner and scheduled Game 3 starter Rick Porcello to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. It worked – Porcello recorded two 8th inning outs on only 15 pitches to set up a 4-out save for Kimbrel. However, it was a move that reeked of desperation. Perhaps a more seasoned manager would not have pressed the Porcello panic button in Game 1. Either way, it goes to show that this Sox bullpen is clearly going to be a problem going forward this postseason.

Kimbrel was able to shut the door on this one, despite giving up a leadoff home run to Judge in the 9th. Outside of that, Kimbrel had his good stuff, including this obscene knuckle-curve to hand Giancarlo Stanton his Golden Sombrero:

Kimbrel mopped up Luke Voit with a 98 mph heater to end it, and give the Sox a white-knuckle playoff win. Phew.

Other Observations

  • David Price is on the hill tonight for the Sox. I feel better about him in a Game 2 at home than an elimination game in Yankee Stadium. That isn’t saying much.
  • The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t great (le duh). The bottom of the lineup, however, was even worse. Nunez, Kinsler, Leon and Bradley went a combined 1-13. Granted, the Sox have been top-heavy all season long. But it’s hard to feel great about their chances this month if the bottom half is going to be a collective zero.
  • It’s hard to fear Stanton after a 4 K effort at the plate. I am, however, terrified of Voit and Judge. Just wanted to update where my head is at.
  • Sandy Leon was the real MVP last night. He made block after block while the Red Sox middle relievers played “Who Can Bounce A Baseball Best?”. On a night where Ron Darling described Gary Sanchez as an “excellent” defensive catcher, it was nice to see Leon step up and show why he’s in the lineup.
  • All that being said, HUGE win in Game 1, to (somewhat) silence the doubters that this 108-win team would get steamrolled by their second-place rivals. We’re on to Game 2.

Red Sox-Yankees ALDS Preview Extravaganza

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It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.

I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:

Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.

Starting Lineup

The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.

And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.

The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.

The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.

Slight Edge: Yankees

Starting Pitching

Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale

Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price

Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…

Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)

Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)

Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen

I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.

The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).

The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.

Major Edge: Yankees

Bench X Factor

Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:

Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.

For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.

Edge: Red Sox

Manager

Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.

I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.

Edge: Red Sox

The Pick

I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.

But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?

RED SOX IN 5

The Top Right Fielders Long-Term

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Right field is a very top heavy position. Not knowing yet how the Yankees will utilize their two sluggers, they both get included in right field as that’s where they have played previously. There is also a good chance they both play right field this season, rotating between there and DH. After a group of four superstars, the position has a steep drop-off. Who helps round out the top 10 for the best right fielders to have for the long haul?

1. Bryce Harper

Harper may not have been a consistent superstar to this point, but he is still only 25 years old. Harper has also put up superstar numbers for two of the last three seasons now while healthy. With his upside, and still being only 25, it is hard to argue against him in the top spot.

One of the most hyped phenoms of all-time, Harper broke in to the Major Leagues at the age of 19. Although it took a few years for him to achieve star numbers, he was good immediately. He hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper truly broke out in 2015 at just 22 years old. That season he won the MVP Award after leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He batted .330 with a .460/.649/1.109 slash line, showing the world his immense upside. Although he “slumped” to an .814 OPS the next year, Harper bounced back last season before getting injured. He again had an OPS over 1.000 while batting .319 with 29 home runs over 420 at-bats.

The biggest concern with Harper’s productivity moving forward may be health. Harper has now missed a relatively large amount of time in half of his six Major League seasons. When healthy, Harper should threaten 40 home runs with a near 1.000 OPS for years to come.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is another superstar right fielder who has struggled with injuries. Stanton has missed significant time in four of his Major League seasons. Despite all the missed time, Stanton’s 267 career home runs place him in the top 10 for most home runs through the age of 27. That number is more than Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. Imagine how many Stanton would have if not for the injuries. Heck, the last couple years he got hurt were fluke injuries. For his career, he has averaged 44 home runs per 162 games played.

In 2015, at the time of his beaning, Stanton was on pace for a 50 home run season. Last year he achieved it for real, bashing a league high 59 home runs. Now, leaving Miami, Stanton gets to play in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s park. If he stays healthy, Stanton could see a couple more 50 home run seasons in his future. Health is the key for the man who hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen.

Stanton won’t be taking aim at this ugly sculpture anymore. (Getty Images)

3. Aaron Judge

Personally, I think we just saw Aaron Judge’s career year, but after what he accomplished as a rookie, it’s hard to put him lower than three. Judge never hit all that well in the minors, posting a high of 20 home runs in 2015. He also only batted better than .280 once, back in his first season. Yet, his first year in the bigs and Judge batted .284 with a league leading 52 home runs. Strange how things work out sometimes. Judge also led the league in walks, 127, and strike outs, 208. Judge then struck out 27 times in 13 postseason games. To keep his average up, he will certainly have to cut back on his strike outs.

Diving into his numbers, 25.9% of Aaron Judge’s fly balls traveled for home runs. That is an insanely high rate, as the league average is 9.6%. I have to think that number will come down, and probably below 20%. As for his strike out rate, which was higher than 30%, that definitely will need to improve for a repeat performance. A .357 BABIP, which places him in the top 10, helped him to his .284 average despite all the strike outs.

Now, all this isn’t saying Aaron Judge is going to be a bad player. I am merely pointing out his underlying numbers which tend to show he won’t be as good moving forward. If Judge drops to a .250 batting average, with the way he walks he will still have better than a .350 on-base percentage.

4. Mookie Betts

I would not be surprised if Betts provided more value moving forward than some guys ahead of him on my list. Coming off a “down season” it is hard to justify putting him higher than 4th. He is easily the best fielder of this bunch though and he was an MVP candidate two seasons ago. Betts also has the most speed of anyone to this point, giving him arguably the most well-rounded game of the group.

Betts strikes out far less than the average player, striking out in only 11.8% of his career plate appearances. That number has been right round 11% in back to back seasons now. Assuming his BABIP normalizes, he should bounce back to closer to the player he was two years ago. That season, Betts had 214 base hits on his way to a .318 batting average. He also hit 31 home runs, 42 doubles and stole 26 bases as he finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award. He didn’t benefit from a high BABIP (.320). But last season, Betts’ BABIP dropped all the way down to .268. He still hit 24 home runs and 46 doubles though, while once again stealing 26 bases. With a return to normalcy, Betts should be around the .300 mark again this season.

As for his defense, Betts has won two straight Gold Glove Awards while posting a 5.4 dWAR. He has saved more than 30 defensive runs above average in both seasons, totaling 63 between the seasons. His 31 last year were 13 more than any other right fielder had. At 25 years old, Betts should be an all-around star for years to come.

Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts hits a double against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Domingo Santana

This is where the position drops off, though Santana is still a good player. Given a chance to start for the first time last season, Santana hit 30 home runs. Not only that, Santana exhibited the ability to draw a walk, walking 73 times. This gave Santana an excellent .371/.505/.875 slash line. The on-base percentage placed him 4th among all right fielders and the slugging percentage was 6th. Not bad for a first full season.

Santana always exhibited ability, twice hitting over 20 home runs in the minors and another time posting a .999 OPS. He was a big piece of the Astros trade to acquire Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez in 2015 for the stretch run. Playing half a season in the bigs in 2016, Santana hit 11 home runs and posted a .792 OPS. Yes, he was much better this past season, but it’s not like the season came out of nowhere. Also, young guys are supposed to improve, right? The ability is real, if anything drops some it will be his batting average after he benefited from a .363 BABIP this past year.

6. Nicholas Castellanos

After being a third baseman his whole career, Castellanos will call right field his home this season. He played 20 games there late last year to see if he could handle it. How he performs there is yet to be determined. As for the bat, that will play in right. Castellanos made Baseball America’s top 100 list four times, twice placing in the top 25. He then spent his first full season in the majors at the age of 22. It’s not a surprise it took him a few years to start producing, but he has now had two straight excellent seasons at the dish.

Castellanos took a big step forward two years ago, batting .285 with 18 home runs and an .827 OPS. Despite a slow start last season, Castellanos hit a career high 26 home runs and led the league with 10 triples. The numbers look sustainable, as his extra base hit percentage and home run rate have held steady the last two seasons. Castellanos has also improved his strike out rate in back to back years. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Castellanos should be entering his prime.

7. Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen has the superstar name, and certainly has been one, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now. His game has shown obvious signs of decline as he no longer has the speed to steal many bases or to play center field. McCutchen looks like he will play primarily right field for the first time in his career this season as he makes the move to San Francisco.

McCutchen may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he still has a good bat. At 31, he isn’t so ancient that we should be expecting him to continue to rapidly decline. He still should have a few good seasons left in him. He isn’t the .300 hitter he was from 2012-2014, falling short of that mark in each of the last three seasons. However, he did bat .279 with 28 home runs last season. He probably will provide more value on defense as well playing in right field. He posted negative defensive value playing center in each of the last four seasons. However, McCutchen posted positive value in a 13 game stint in right field last year.

McCutchen will call San Francisco his home after spending his first 9 seasons in Pittsburgh.

8. Jay Bruce

Bruce will join McCutchen as a 31 year old shortly after the season begins. Although the age does him no favors in my long-term articles, it’s by no means a death knell. There is no reason why he can’t continue hitting into his mid-thirties at least. He ultimately may find himself moved to first base, a position he has played a little of before.

Bruce is a fairly one-dimensional slugger. Although he isn’t allergic to walks, he doesn’t walk too often. He doesn’t hit for a high average, he doesn’t steal bases, he mostly just slugs home runs. At least he seems to be a pretty good player again. From 2010-2013, Bruce batted .262 and averaged 30 home runs per year. He then had two very poor seasons, batting .222 without posting any real value. However, he is back to being the player he was before 2014 it seems. Bruce has hit .252 the last two seasons while hitting 69 home runs. He is coming off a career high 36 home runs last season. He looks like he should be a .250 30 home run hitter for a couple more seasons.

9. Yasiel Puig

Puig is a polarizing player, both on and off the field. He looked like a future star his first two seasons, batting .305 with an .888 OPS. His arm in right field was a weapon as well as his bat. Then his play fell off the next two seasons, batting just .260 with a .748 OPS. He hit only 22 home runs combined those two years and was sent to the minors in 2016. His attitude was considered to be a problem both on and off the field.

Still just 26 last season, Puig’s play rebounded. He still hit just .263, but he clubbed a career high 28 home runs. Puig posted an .833 OPS, his best in three seasons. His play in the outfield was arguably the best of his career, putting up 18 defensive runs saved above average. Runners don’t test his arm like they used to, as Puig had just 4 assists. But he’s still holding runners, and he only made one error.

So, which Puig will we see moving forward? Can he continue to be a force on the field or will his play regress again? Puig also carries the character concerns, meaning he could affect team chemistry even when going well. Still just 27 years old, Puig has plenty of time to turn his career around.

10. Nomar Mazara

Mazara was just 20 years old when he made the majors, and he has held his own. The number 21 prospect according to Baseball America in 2016, Mazara batted .266 and hit 20 home runs. Last season, he had his peaks and valleys, showing all the streakiness one might expect from a 22 year old. When all was said and done he had hit 22 home runs, doubled 30 times and driven in 101 runners. His average dropped a bit, while his other rate stats saw incremental gains.

I believe there is more in him waiting to show the world. He was a big prospect brought to the majors at such a young age. Still just 22 at the start of the year, Mazara has plenty of development left. He’s got plenty of power in his 6’4″ 215 pound frame, and I expect his skills to become more toned and consistent. I expect Mazara to post career highs across the board this season, except maybe runs batted in.

Honorable Mentions:

Steven Souza Jr., Avisail Garcia, Mitch Haniger, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Scott Schebler, Randal Grichuk

 

 

 

Feature picture from Federalball.com