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Revisiting Potential Risers in Red Sox Farm System (@TheFrizz87)

In January, I wrote an article highlighting some Red Sox minor leaguers who might be able to make a leap in prospect rankings with a good season. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like any of them will crack Baseball America’s top 100 next season. In fact, with what has happened with Jay Groome and Michael Chavis this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see no Red Sox farm hands make the rankings for 2019. That doesn’t mean all is lost though, some of these guys are still performing well.

The Pitchers

Bryan Mata

Mata is the Red Sox lone representative in the Futures Game. However, there have still been concerns with his season. Mata was known for being a well-polished pitcher for his age, having excellent command of his pitches despite being just 18 years old. Instead, Mata has walked 57 batters in 71 innings pitched this season, leading to a WHIP of 1.59. Despite the uncharacteristic amount of walks, Mata has been able to keep his ERA down, posting a 3.42 ERA in high-A to this point. Although it’s discouraging to see his control regress, it is encouraging to see him keep teams off the scoreboard still. At just 19 years old, he has a lot of development left and could easily get his control back to where it needs to be.

Tanner Houck

Houck has not made the strides he needed to make this year. The Red Sox first round pick last year is 4-11 with a 5.14 ERA for the season. His control needs to improve and he still could use the help of developing a better third pitch. Houck can reach the upper-90’s and has a good slider, but not much beyond that. He showed some potential when he threw six no-hit innings on June 14th. His good games have been too few and far between though. Houck might ultimately wind up being tried in the bullpen in the future if he doesn’t turn things around. His fastball and slider combination might play up better in the pen and get him to the Major Leagues.

Mike Shawaryn

Shawaryn has mostly put up the same numbers in AA this year as he has always put up. The main difference is a little bit of a decrease in strike outs at the higher level, but not an alarming drop-off. He has pitched to a 3.65 ERA this season with an excellent 1.10 WHIP. He still does strike out batters too, just not over a strike out per inning anymore. Shawaryn has struck out 85 batters over 93.2 innings pitched. It looks like he will continue to increase his amount of innings pitched while still being effective, a good progress in his development.

The Hitters

Josh Ockimey at the plate for the Sea Dogs.

Josh Ockimey

In January, I wrote that Ockimey was a three “true outcome” hitter, and that hasn’t changed in Portland this season. It is encouraging to see his power continue to develop while also maintaining his patience at the plate. In a game I went to in May, Ockimey hit a blast to right that was just to the right of a light tower. After striking out in his second at-bat, I correctly predicted a walk in his third at-bat. On the season, Ockimey has batted .265 with 12 home runs in AA. He has struck out 86 times in 249 at-bats, but has also drawn 50 walks, leading to an excellent .385 on-base percentage. So far he is putting up the best season of his minor league career.

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec was someone who needed a bounceback season to restore his prospect status; boy has he done that of late. Dalbec has been on fire, posting multiple hits five times in the last ten games. Twice in that span he has banged out four base hits. Dalbec also has a multi-homer game and six home runs total in that 10 game span. With the red hot streak, Dalbec has raised his season average to a respectable .257. He has 21 home runs in A-ball, a number not many reach down in that level. He also draws a good amount of walks, giving him a nice .369 OBP to go along with his excellent .561 slugging percentage. The downside to Dalbec is the amount of swing and miss in his game, striking out 110 times in the first half of the season. It would be interesting to see how he fares if the Red Sox move him up to Portland in the second half.

Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics Series Recap

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The Red Sox will be back home in Boston after their 11 day road trip. Facing the Oakland Athletics are Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Chris Sale. The Sox have won the last seven out of 13 games, while Oakland won five out the last 12 games. The Red Sox will face pitcher Sean Manaea for the first time since his no hitter game in April. The Sox hope that being on Fenway soil will help them defeat the Athletics. This series will also be the last time that the Red Sox will face the Athletics during the regular season.

Porcello vs. Manaea

Sean Manaea pitched a no hitter to the Red Sox last month. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each hit a solo home run for the Red Sox. Porcello let up five runs and nine hits over six innings, and struck out five. Trailing in the fourth inning, the Athletics grasped the lead with three runs. Lucroy had a two-run double into the left-field corner before Fowler tripled off the Monster. The Red Sox caught up 4-3 in the fifth, when Hanley Ramirez scored a run with a ground ball. J.D. Martinez hit straight out to the Sox bullpen in the eighth to score. Benintendi and Ramirez got back to back RBI singles. Unfortunately, it was not enough, and Oakland won Monday night’s game 6-5.

“We talked about not expanding down in the zone,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “Overall, we did a good job of it. His stuff is still good.”

“2B Dustin Pedroia (recovering from offseason left knee surgery) started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket. He singled and scored a run in three at-bats while playing five innings at second base.”

Rodriguez vs. Mengden

Due to the weather, the 7:10 start time moved to 8:50 on Tuesday night. As a result, Oakland beat the Sox in nine innings. Rodriguez took his first loss of the season after Oakland had six hits through the first three innings, starting with back-to-back singles by Semien and Pinder to start the game. Piscotty hit a monster home run out of Fenway Park in his first at-bat against Rodriguez. Piscotty’s home run was the first he had hit since his mother’s death on May 6th. Andrew Benintendi hit a homer and Mitch Moreland hit two doubles.

“It was pure joy. It’s been an emotional week,” said Piscotty, whose mother, Gretchen, died May 6 after a one-year battle with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease. She was 55.”

“We haven’t been able to put them away,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “They’re young and it seems like they’re turning a corner. Whatever they’re doing over there is pretty good.”

Sale vs. Cahill – A Sale Day Win to Avoid an Athletics Series Sweep

In Rafael Devers’s 100th major league game, the Sox came out with a win. Xander Bogaerts hit a three run homer, and J.D. Martinez hit a two run homer. Chris Sale gave up two runs and two hits in five innings. Sale also struck out nine and walked four. Trevor Cahill gave up three runs out of the first four batters he faced. After Sale’s career high 15 strikouts in his last outing, he struggled, but hung on long enough to keep the Sox up over the Athletics. Craig Kimbrel grasped his 12th save of the season and avoided the Sox meeting their season high losing streak. The Sox beat the Athletics 6-4 after Xander and J.D. had quite the night.

“It’s pretty impressive what he does when you’re behind looking at him,” Bogaerts said. “Normally I’m a guy who gets to the on-deck circle a little bit later. I’ve got to get there early if he swings at the first pitch and gets a hit. He hits some bombs on the first pitch.”

“Four walks, that’s not my game,” Sale said. “That’s not who I am. Obviously, you want to be better than that. Anytime your bullpen throws almost as many innings as you do, that’s not what you’re looking for.”

Up Next

The Red Sox will be at home again to face the Orioles for a four game series starting Thursday. David Price will be up first for his Fenway return. Dustin Pedroia will play another game in Pawtucket by the end of the week as Tuesday night’s game was postponed due to the weather. Jackie Bradley Jr. is still spending an immense amount of time on the bench as he has constantly had bad games. Cora is hoping that Bradley Jr. will come out of his slump soon, as he has been working on improving both his defense and his offense.

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Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees Series Recap

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The long-awaited face off has arrived since the early April bench clearing brawl. The Red Sox and Yankees rivalry was in full blast as Joe Kelly and Tyler Austin went at it after Austin was hit by a pitch. The meeting of the two teams was highly anticipated by all.

Pomeranz vs. Severino

Tuesday night, the Sox fell to the Yankees 3-2, allowing the two teams to tie for first place. Betts and Benintendi made it on base to lead to the Sox first run of the game. In the second inning, Drew Pomeranz broke a nail, causing some concern to bring the trainers out. Giancarlo Stanton hit two solo home runs. Luis Severino struck out 11 players against Drew Pomeranz’s six strikeouts. Mookie Betts hit an RBI triple in the seventh to tie the game. Joe Kelly came in to a sea of boos and chants from all of Yankee Stadium. Kelly came out as the Yankees loaded the bases with only one out to prevent more runs. The Yankees are now on a 16-1 win streak, and are showing true competition for first place as Porcello will face Masahiro Tanaka.

“They’re good hitters. They were fighting off a lot of pitches. They have a great team. I was trying my best, but I was battling.” -Severino on the Sox at bat

“We’re playing good baseball, doing it a lot of different ways. Tonight was tough. Boston is really good. They battle, battle, battle; kind of hung around. ” -Manager Aaron Boone on the win against the Yankees biggest rivalry

The 24 Hour Yankees AL East Lead Porcello vs. Tanaka

Rick Porcello pitches a game earlier than normal, as David Price was sent to Boston for x-rays. In the past few games, he had experienced problems in his hand, causing the x-rays to be needed. Later we found out that Price was okay and would be pitching in the upcoming series. Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi, and Mitch Moreland all hit homers on Wednesday night. But it was nothing compared to the electric eighth inning that the Yankees had. Brett Gardener hit a triple allowing two to score, and Aaron Judge’s 117 MPH homer allowed the Yankees to go up 9-6. Rick Porcello only struck out three players, ending Wednesday with a 2.79 ERA. The Yankees have taken the lead over the Sox to be in the AL East first place. Tomorrow Eduardo Rodriguez will face CC Sabathia in the series finale.

“It got my attention. I looked around a little bit that inning. It’s May and it’s bedlam.” -Aaron Boone on the win to bring the Yankees into first place.

The Sox and Yankees are Tied Again Rodriguez vs. Sabathia

The rain never stopped the Red Sox as they were 4-0 at the delay in the fifth inning. The Red Sox escaped a Yankees sweep with a 5-4 win on Thursday night. The Yankees scored four runs in the seventh to tie the game, but Martinez wanted the win and hit a homer in the eighth to take the win. Joe Kelly came in again to clean up the mess of players on base and got Giancarlo Stanton out on a grounder to retire the side. Craig Kimbrel has his 110th save. Ramirez hit a homer to the visiting bullpen to allow the Sox to reach the rain delay with a lead.

“Definitely. You saw it today. They don’t give up. I’m very confident in what we’ve got. This is our team right here and we’re concentrating on what we can do and see what we can do better to keep winning.” -Hanley Ramirez when asked if the Sox and Yankees rivalry is the best in baseball

“I hit it, and I was like blowing, praying, doing everything I can to push it over. I knew it had a chance.” -J. D. Martinez on his homer that won the game

Up Next for the Sox

The Red Sox will travel to Toronto to face the Blue Jays before heading back home to play the Oakland Athletics. Up first in the series against Toronto will be Chris Sale and Aaron Sanchez. David Price will return to pitch this series after x-rays in Boston. Alex Cora also reported that Jackie Bradley Jr. will be back in the Saturday line up while Brock Holt will return on Friday.

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Red Sox Who Could Crack Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2019

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When Baseball America released its top 100 list on Monday, the Red Sox only had two farmhands make the list. In recent years, the farm system has produced more than just two players on the list, and usually several much higher on the list. Jason Groome was the highest ranked Red Sox prospect at number 83. This was the lowest a Red Sox top prospect has shown up on this list since Dernell Stenson in 2001. This isn’t to say all hope is lost down on the farm. The other day I wrote about the two players who made the list, and the Red Sox have plenty of other intriguing names for the future. They may not be Yoan Moncada or Michael Kopech, but they have a few guys who could threaten to crack the top 100 list in 2019.

The Most Likely

Bryan Mata

Mata is an 18 year old who was signed out of Venezuela in 2016. He is very refined for such a young kid, being rated as having the best control in the Red Sox farm system by Baseball America. Oftentimes control is something that gets better with age, so for someone so young to be graded so highly is rare.

Mata is more than just a control pitcher, throwing in the low to mid-90’s as a teenager. One would assume he will add some velocity as he reaches his 20’s and fills out more. Currently he is very skinny and will need to bulk up to withstand a full season, but there is plenty of time to do that. Once he does fill out more it would not be surprising to see him sit in the mid-90’s with his fastball. Mata also throws a curveball and a changeup. These offerings show potential but both have some work to do. He more than held his own last year at Greenville, a level not usually reached by someone his age. At just 18, Mata is far advanced for his age and could make the top 100 next year with continued improvement.

Tanner Houck

Houck was the Red Sox 1st round pick this past season, so it would be nice to see a strong year from him to elevate him into Baseball America’s top 100. Coming out of Missouri, Houck has a great pitcher’s frame, standing at 6’5″ 220. His fastball velocity has a wide range, but can reach as high as 98 MPH. The pitch has good sink to it and no doubt can play at the Major League level. How far he gets will rely on his secondary pitches and his refinement. He has the body to be a workhorse, but if he fizzles out as a starter he has the stuff to be a late innings reliever.

Houck has the best slider in the Red Sox system according to Baseball America; a third pitch will be key in his development. Throwing from a 3/4 arm slot, Houck reminds me some of Justin Masterson. Masterson was a high pick by the Red Sox who had a heavy sink on his pitches and a good slider. It was up in the air whether he would be a starter or a reliever in the majors; he ultimately did some of both. Masterson never really developed another reliable pitch to maintain his successes, so hopefully Houck can add a reliable third pitch.

Right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck pitches against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Taylor Stadium (Tim Nwachukwu)

Josh Ockimey

Ockimey is a big first baseman with excellent raw power. Ockimey can put on displays of power in batting practice, but the home runs haven’t come in abundance yet in games. Often, that comes later with development. A lot of guys hit for more power once they reach the majors than they ever did in the minors. Take a look at Aaron Judge, who never hit more than 20 home runs in any season despite having a huge projection of power. At present, it’s more important that Ockimey keeps his batting eye and shows the ability to hit well enough to keep advancing.

Ockimey hit 18 home runs two years ago, but after a fast start his bat went ice cold and he finished the season with a .226 batting average. Despite such a low average, he got on base at a very respectable .364 clip thanks to his 88 walks. This is what I believe can help him become a regular at the big league level if he shows he can hit enough. With power and a great batting eye he could be a valuable player even if he batted .240. Last season he was able to bat .274 with a .385 on base percentage between two levels. Starting in AA Portland this year, if Ockimey can keep his average and walks in line with that he could crack the top 100 next season. There is still a wide range of possible scenarios for him, but he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.

Photo credit: Kelly O’Connor

If Things Fall Right

Mike Shawaryn

Shawaryn was a potential first round pick after his sophomore season at Maryland. That season he went 13-2 with a 1.71 ERA. After battling some injuries his junior season, Shawaryn fell to the 5th round. He had still performed well though, posting a 3.18 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Shawaryn has continued to produce in the Minor Leagues, posting an ERA below 4.00 at all three levels. Last year was his first full season and he struck out 169 batters over 135 innings between two levels. If he can show similar results this year he should have a chance to make the list in 2019.

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec took a step back this year after looking like one of the Red Sox top hitting prospects the year before. Dalbec both pitched and hit well in college, and could always give pitching a shot if hitting fails him. Before that though, he will see if he can rebound. Dalbec has big power, so if he can hit the ball more consistently he could develop into a Major Leaguer down the road. He batted .386 with 7 home runs in Lowell two years ago after being drafted in the 4th round. Last year he fell off to .246, although he did post a .345 on base percentage.

Right now, there is too much swing and miss to his game, if he can cut back on the strike outs his power might be able to play up more. If that happens, maybe Dalbec has a Michael Chavis type breakout this season. If that happened, along with his strong arm from third base Dalbec would certainly join the top 100 next year. The range of outcomes on him is large.

Photo by Peter Aiken

Dark Horse Candidates

Cole Brannen

Brannen was the Red Sox second round draft pick last season out of high school. He would likely need to have a strong showing this season to gain consideration from Baseball America since he is so young and not yet in full season ball. Brannen doesn’t have much power but projects to hit for good averages and is a speedy outfielder.

Alex Scherff

Another draft pick of the Red Sox last season, Scherff was a 5th round pick out of high school. He could have been a higher pick, but fell due to concerns over whether he would sign or go to college. Scherff already throws in the mid-90’s, occasionally reaching the upper 90’s. He will have to dominate low-A hitters this season to have a shot at the Baseball America top 100 next year.

Darwinzon Hernandez

Hernandez’ fastball was rated as the best in the system by Baseball America. Hernandez was 20 years old last season pitching in full season Greenville. He struck out over a batter per inning while showing off good stuff. If he can gain more consistency with his secondary offerings he could make a huge leap this coming season.

Roldani Baldwin

Baldwin is a lesser known Red Sox prospect who comes in all the way down at number 32 on sox prospects. Signed out of the Dominican back in 2014, Baldwin is still only 21 years old. Last season at Greenville he batted .274 with an impressive .489 slugging percentage. He shows good pop, hitting 14 home runs and 35 doubles in 368 at-bats last year. Oh, did I mention he was a catcher? Converted back to the position for last year, Baldwin threw out one-third of potential base stealers while showing the ability to play backstop. He might be a longshot to make the top 100 next year, but he is an intriguing dark horse to watch behind the plate moving forward.

Roldani Baldwin swinging (Bryan Green)

Featured picture from Over the Monster.

Two Red Sox in Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

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Baseball America released its annual top 100 prospects list Monday. If you go searching for Red Sox, it might take you awhile. The Red Sox have two of their prospects included on the list, and both are in the bottom twenty. What happened to the Red Sox system you might ask? Well, they traded away a lot of their young assets, but most of the deals have worked out. Some of them were dealt to Chicago for staff ace Chris Sale, others were sent to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz. Others are just no longer eligible, as Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers are on the big club. The Red Sox still have plenty of young talent, as for the farm system; let’s take a look at the two who made the list.

Jason Groome

Groome, unsurprisingly, is the highest Red Sox on the list. What is a bit surprising is him coming in as low as eighty-third on that list. Groome was a top prospect coming into the 2016 draft, some places even ranked him as the best eligible player in the draft. He fell to the Red Sox at twelfth, presumably due to signability issues and minor character concerns. The Red Sox got a bargain, having arguably the best talent in the draft slip to them at twelve. And as a left-handed pitcher with ace potential that was like striking gold.

Groome is a big kid, standing at 6’6″ 220. At just nineteen years old, he has room to add to his frame and maybe pick up a couple of ticks on his fastball velocity, which already reaches the mid-90’s. There is no real concern over his body, as it is a great size to withstand the rigors of pitching all season long and approaching 200 innings a year. Groome also has the makings of a devastating curveball, which Keith Law said was the best in the entire 2016 draft class and one of the best he had ever seen from a high schooler.

Work Left to Do

Groome still has work to do; he is only nineteen years old after all. He needs to work on his mechanics and his control as he walked 4.9 batters per nine innings last season. Groome also needs to improve his changeup to give himself a reliable third pitch. It is hard to make it as a starter in the big leagues with only two pitches, so the development of a third pitch is key. He has the talent to do so, pitching in high school there was no need for him to ever throw a changeup because no one could hit his fastball and curveball. With some work, I expect his changeup to become at least adequate with time.

The reason Groome likely slips to number eighty-three on the prospects list is due to his disappointing 2017 campaign. In all fairness to Groome, he was injured right out of the gate and played catch up for most of the year. Groome took a shellacking in his debut at Greenville and didn’t pitch again for over two months. He made three rehab starts at Lowell, finishing up with a five inning no-hitter. After making it back to Greenville Groome showed inconsistency, pitching a couple stellar games but also exhibiting his control problems in others. He was just 3-7 with a 6.70 ERA at Greenville, but throwing out that first start in which he was injured, the ERA comes down to 5.02. For a positive, Groome struck out 11.77 batters per nine innings at the level.

Moving Forward

A good sign for Groome’s development is he worked out with Chris Sale in the offseason. The Red Sox top prospect, a left-hander, taking the initiative to work out with fellow left-hander and staff ace can only be a good thing. I think if Groome can enter this season healthy he will show a lot more of his potential and show why he was so highly though of out of high school. He has already shown the ability to miss plenty of bats, I think he will put that to better use this season. With it, Groome should fly up the prospect rankings by season’s end. If things go well, he may even threaten the top twenty next year.

Groome grew up a Red Sox fan despite living in New Jersey surrounded by Yankees fans.

Michael Chavis

Chavis came in at eighty-fifth on the prospects list, just two spots lower than Groome. As the top power bat in the Red Sox system, Chavis got a lot of attention last season. A first round pick back in 2014, Chavis struggled adjusting to pro ball. Chavis started in Greenville in 2015 and only batted .223. The only positive of his debut were the sixteen home runs he hit. At just twenty years old the Red Sox had Chavis repeat the level in 2016, and it didn’t go any better. For a first round pick, Michael Chavis was certainly not living up to expectations.

2017

Chavis entered the season last year at twenty-one years old. He also opened the season with high-A Salem, a team he had only played for briefly towards the end of the 2016 season. Chavis showed immense improvement, not only hitting for power, but for average as well. In 223 at-bats with Salem, Chavis hit .318 with seventeen long balls and a 1.029 OPS. He was beginning to show why the Red Sox had made him a first round draft pick three years earlier.

The performance earned Chavis a mid-season callup to AA Portland. Although his bat slowed some, Chavis still exhibited the power potential he had shown in Salem earlier in the year. His average dropped to .250 in Portland, but he still managed a nice .802 OPS. In 248 at-bats he added fourteen more home runs for the Sea Dogs, giving him thirty-one on the season between the two levels. Playing in the Arizona Fall League, Chavis’ numbers remained in line with what he had done in Portland, batting .261 with four home runs and an .805 OPS. Thirty-five home runs in 563 at-bats is a nice year’s work.

Chavis batting with the Portland Sea Dogs.

What’s To Come

Can Chavis be the hitter he was in Salem, hitting for a good average and power? Or will he be a power hitter who struggles to make contact and hit for a mediocre average? The evidence so far leads me to believe he will be closer to the player we saw in Portland then the one with Salem. Hey, there’s a market for power bats, it’s not a bad thing. Even when going well, Chavis has some swing and miss to his game and hasn’t walked a ton. Last year he drew 39 walks against 113 strike outs. It would be nice to see him walk more by the time he makes it to the Major Leagues. Then again, sometimes guys hit the ball with more authority when they have an aggressive approach.

Chavis’ defense at third base is a little questionable, but if Rafael Devers shows improvement at the hot corner the Red Sox are set there for years to come. The ultimate home for Chavis on the diamond might be at first base, where the Red Sox don’t have anyone locked up past 2019. With Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez back in the fold, the Sox shouldn’t need Chavis this year. They even have Sam Travis, who Baseball America rated as the Red Sox seventh best prospect. With another season like 2017, he might force his way up for 2019, but he needs to focus on continual improvement to his game first. Chavis has some work to put in down on the farm, as Major League pitchers will do a better job finding the holes in his swing and exploiting his weaknesses.

Feature picture from Baseball Hot Corner