Tag Archives: Bobby Dalbec

The Future: Red Sox Top Minor League Prospects

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The future of the Red Sox appears to be in good hands with a collection of raw, high potential prospects in the minors. In light of the recent success from young players like Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis, here we look at the very best the Red Sox have left to offer in the minors.

1. Triston Casas

Age:19

Position: 1B/3B

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 240 lb.

Bat/Throw: L/R

While he is a bit far away from joining the big leagues, Casas has the potential to be a future All-Star regular for the Sox. This is clearly shown in the fact that he is currently ranked #90 on MLB top 100 prospects, and #4 on top 10 first basemen. He has won the U18 World Cup MVP honors, and the World Baseball Softball Confederation player of the year award in 2017. His greatest strength is his power, as he lead the U.S. U18 national team in homers and RBIs in both 2016 and 2017. He also has 17 homers in under 100 games in 2019, fueled by his size.

He also is a perfect man for the corners of the diamond, as his 90 mph pitching arm from his amateur days makes for a supreme defensive weapon. Combine that with his soft hands and strong conditioning, and he can be one of the best defenders on the field. His only clear downside to his game is his speed, but that isn’t enough to stop someone of his caliber from taking the league by storm.

2. Bryan Mata

Age: 20

Position: SP(righty)

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 160 lb.(listed, but he appears to be bigger now)

Bat/Throw: R/R

He has improved greatly since joining the Sox in 2016, and could get called up in the next year. With that being said, there are definitely a few issues to iron out. As he gets tired later in games, his release point can change and he overthrows pitches. This causes there to be an increased number of baserunners late in games. Usually, though, he tends to settle down and pitch himself out of those jams. He throws two types of fastballs, a four-seam at 94-96 mph, and two-seam at 91-93 mph. His four-seam can cap out at 98 mph, yet he is still improving it and needs to work on its command and control.

He also has recently added a 88 mph power slider, which is great at fooling batters, and can even occasionally morph into a cutter. His changeup ain’t to bad either. It averages 85 mph and fades at near perfect times. He could be a great mid to late rotation pitcher, or could even move to the bullpen. What is certain is that he is hardworking and in a position for success.

3. Bobby Dalbec

Age: 24

Position: 3B/1B

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 230 lb.

Bat/Throw: R/R

Another prospect who could be called up soon, Bobby Dalbec is ranked #8 on MLB’s Top 10 3B prospects, and for good reason. A player compared to that of Kris Bryant, Dalbec could be an everyday impact player for the Red Sox. He is a very similar prospect to Casas. They both aren’t the fastest players in the world, yet they have power and defensive prowess. In 2018,he displayed his power as he ranked second in extra-base hits (70) while also being fourth in homers (32). This year he has a solid 20 homers in under 100 games, and was called up to Pawtucket.

Also, like Casas, he has a powerful arm stemming from a prior pitching career. While a little stiff when fielding, he can potentially be a great fielder at third base. He shows some swing and miss concerns, which could prevent a call up until late next season. He overall looks like a solid prospect, and a player to keep on your radar for the future.

4. Jarren Duran

Age: 22

Position: OF

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 200 lb.

Bat/Throw: L/R

Duran is a player with a game comparable to an outfield version of Pedroia. Hitting wise, Duran utilizes a toe tap timing device with simple swing mechanics. He is aggressive and will attack early in the count, but can recognize spin and will take a walk. Looks to put the ball in play with hard line drives in all directions. Still improving his already good technique. He also may be the fastest prospect in the Sox organization. While he needs to refine basestealing instincts and reads on defense, he has the type of speed that puts immense pressure on the defense. He is so fast that on occasion defenses have not been able to throw him out on routine grounders. In 2019 he converted to center field from right field, where his previously spoken of speed grants him insane range. He has the clear athleticism teams covet for center field to go along with his speed.

He is not that strong of a player, which really shows in his hitting power and arm strength throwing the ball. Luckily that is not too hard of a fix ,as I expect that as he gains weight the strength will come as well. Keep an eye on this man as he could be an eventual improvement for Jackie Bradley Jr.,if JBJ doesn’t figure out his hitting.

5. Darwinzon Hernandez

Age: 22

Position: RP/SP

Height: 6′ 2″

Weight: 245 lb.

Bat/Throw: L/L

Damn this kid already looks like a stud for the Sox. And yes, he counts as a prospect despite the fact he is called up. Hernandez has impressed as arguably the best reliever option for the Red Sox this season, boasting a 2.03 ERA and 26 SO in 11 games this season. While he does walk a decent amount, it is a fare trade for not allowing a single homer yet. Control could be better, but his amazing mechanics should start to help once he gains more experience in the majors. His best pitch is easily his fastball, which maxes out at 97 mph. His fastball shows natural cut, with late life which jumps on hitters, especially left-handers. The pitch has shown the ability to overwhelm hitters, despite his control problems.

Hernandez’s curveball shows potential to be almost as great as his fastball. At its best it really snaps it off, showing depth and tight rotation. Unfortunately it is a bit inconsistent, and rolls slower at lower velocities when its at its worse. His 83-87 mph slider is also a treat. It can sometimes move like a cutter, and will flash a tight rotation and late bite. Sometimes it will also get loose when he doesn’t finish the pitch, which is a problem that could be be solved through simple practice. It doesn’t take a genius to see how good he could be, and how good he is already. Lets just hope Cora keeps giving him a chance through thick and thin, and not just toss Hernandez back to the minors like he did to Bobby Poyner.

Special mention to prospects Jay Groome(SP), Tanner Houck(SP/RP), and Thad Ward(SP), who didn’t crack this list.

Featured image via Bill’s Sports Maps

Red Sox should add Zack Wheeler

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There are reports circulating that the Red Sox are talking to the Mets about Zack Wheeler. This is an arm the Red Sox should snap up.

Tommy John Surgery History

Wheeler came on for the Mets with a bang in 2013 with a 3.42 ERA as a rookie in 17 starts. The next year he went he had a 3.56 ERA and seemed to figure it out: His strikeout rate rose from 7.96 to 9.08 K/9. Alas, soon after he went under the knife, and lost 2015 and 2016 to Tommy John surgery and recovery. It was a long road, but it is a road in the past. He’s starting to pick it up.

Recent History & Potential Cost

In 2018 Wheeler finally looked like himself again. He maintained a 3.31 ERA and got his K/9 back to 8.84. This year that rate is at a career best 9.8. Yes, he has a 4.49 ERA on the year, but the Mets have been a mess, even more than the Red Sox. And his last start against the Yankees was a great one. He went 6.1 innings, struck out seven, and allowed two runs. Can you imagine that in London?

Wheeler has a lot of potential, and is still only 29 years old. He walks guys, with a career walks rate of 3.4 BB/9 (down to 2.6 this year), which is why he will fetch a lesser price. Jarren Duran has turned some heads lately. He was just in the minor league Future’s Game. But he’s a no power, batting average guy. Those guys don’t go much beyond bench pieces in the Majors. Think that type of prospect, rather than a power bat like Bobby Dalbec.

Wheeler is right handed, which has already shown dividends against the Yankees. He’s topped 100 MPH with his fastball this year. He would look great as the number four or five starter in this rotation, with possibilities for more.

Featured image via the New York Post

Call-ups for the Red Sox in 2019

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The minor league season is over for the Red Sox, so the focus turns to next year for the prospects. There were risers and fallers in the system, but some of them could be on the major league team next year. The most likely call-ups are Michael Chavis, Travis Lakins, Durbin Feltman, and Bobby Dalbec.

Michael Chavis

Coming into the year, Chavis was the best prospect in the organization. An 80 game suspension for PEDs set him back, but Chavis raked when he came back. The 23-year old spent the bulk of the year in Double-A Portland and hit .303 with six home runs in 33 games there. The third baseman was promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket and hit .273 in just eight games there. When Bobby Dalbec and Chavis were on the same team, Chavis moved to first base. Steve Pearce is a free agent and Mitch Moreland is under contract for next year, so the Red Sox will have to make some decisions with that. Also, moving Rafael Devers, who struggled at third, to first base, has been talked about. This would open the door for Chavis to be the opening day third baseman next year.

Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig, right, poses with shortstop Michael Chavis from Sprayberry Senior High School in Marietta, Ga., at the 2014 MLB baseball draft Thursday, June 5, 2014, in Secaucus, N.J. Chavis was selected by the Boston Red Sox with the 26th pick in the first round. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Lakins and Feltman

Travis Lakins got off to a rough start in his Red Sox career, but do not let his 4.42 career ERA fool you. His career was revived when he moved to the bullpen. Lakins was moved to bullpen full time when he was promoted from Portland to Pawtucket and did not disappoint. The righty posted a 1.65 ERA in ten appearances with Pawtucket, picking up two saves.

Durbin Feltman was drafted just a few months ago and has been very impressive already. It only took him four games in which he did not give up a run to be promoted to Greenville. Feltman posted a 2.57 ERA in seven games with Greenville then was promoted to Salem. He was good again in Salem, posting a 2.19 ERA in eleven games. All in all, Feltman had a 1.93 ERA in 22 games this season. The bullpen is obviously the biggest need for the Red Sox, so Feltman and Lakins could be the biggest pieces in the farm system.

 

Bobby Dalbec

Despite having a decent average, Dalbec makes up for that with walks and home runs. His on-base percentage is .361 which is up about 100 points from his .257 average. Dalbec showed his power this year, hitting 32 home runs in just 129 games with Portland and Salem. Dalbec fits today’s game because nobody really cares about hits and it’s all about getting on base and hitting the long ball. As I mentioned, the Red Sox have a hot corner conundrum. If Devers and Chavis are on the roster, Dalbec may have a tough time getting playing time. He has played third base his entire career so the Red Sox would have to change something to get him playing time.

Photo by Peter Aiken

Bottom Line

Right now, the Red Sox have one of the worst farm systems in the league. However, I still believe that they have great potential and are on the rise. Dombrowski has drafted well since he was hired, and some of the 2018 picks are off to a hot start. They have also gotten unlucky because there top three prospects (Chavis, Groome, Casas) were all suspended or injured at some point this season.

Revisiting Potential Risers in Red Sox Farm System (@TheFrizz87)

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In January, I wrote an article highlighting some Red Sox minor leaguers who might be able to make a leap in prospect rankings with a good season. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like any of them will crack Baseball America’s top 100 next season. In fact, with what has happened with Jay Groome and Michael Chavis this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see no Red Sox farm hands make the rankings for 2019. That doesn’t mean all is lost though, some of these guys are still performing well.

The Pitchers

Bryan Mata 

Mata is the Red Sox lone representative in the Futures Game. However, there have still been concerns with his season. Mata was known for being a well-polished pitcher for his age, having excellent command of his pitches despite being just 18 years old. Instead, Mata has walked 57 batters in 71 innings pitched this season, leading to a WHIP of 1.59. Despite the uncharacteristic amount of walks, Mata has been able to keep his ERA down, posting a 3.42 ERA in high-A to this point. Although it’s discouraging to see his control regress, it is encouraging to see him keep teams off the scoreboard still. At just 19 years old, he has a lot of development left and could easily get his control back to where it needs to be.

Tanner Houck

Houck has not made the strides he needed to make this year. The Red Sox first round pick last year is 4-11 with a 5.14 ERA for the season. His control needs to improve and he still could use the help of developing a better third pitch. Houck can reach the upper-90’s and has a good slider, but not much beyond that. He showed some potential when he threw six no-hit innings on June 14th. His good games have been too few and far between though. Houck might ultimately wind up being tried in the bullpen in the future if he doesn’t turn things around. His fastball and slider combination might play up better in the pen and get him to the Major Leagues.

Mike Shawaryn

Shawaryn has mostly put up the same numbers in AA this year as he has always put up. The main difference is a little bit of a decrease in strike outs at the higher level, but not an alarming drop-off. He has pitched to a 3.65 ERA this season with an excellent 1.10 WHIP. He still does strike out batters too, just not over a strike out per inning anymore. Shawaryn has struck out 85 batters over 93.2 innings pitched. It looks like he will continue to increase his amount of innings pitched while still being effective, a good progress in his development.

The Hitters

Josh Ockimey at the plate for the Sea Dogs.

Josh Ockimey

In January, I wrote that Ockimey was a three “true outcome” hitter, and that hasn’t changed in Portland this season. It is encouraging to see his power continue to develop while also maintaining his patience at the plate. In a game I went to in May, Ockimey hit a blast to right that was just to the right of a light tower. After striking out in his second at-bat, I correctly predicted a walk in his third at-bat. On the season, Ockimey has batted .265 with 12 home runs in AA. He has struck out 86 times in 249 at-bats, but has also drawn 50 walks, leading to an excellent .385 on-base percentage. So far he is putting up the best season of his minor league career.

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec was someone who needed a bounceback season to restore his prospect status; boy has he done that of late. Dalbec has been on fire, posting multiple hits five times in the last ten games. Twice in that span he has banged out four base hits. Dalbec also has a multi-homer game and six home runs total in that 10 game span. With the red hot streak, Dalbec has raised his season average to a respectable .257. He has 21 home runs in A-ball, a number not many reach down in that level. He also draws a good amount of walks, giving him a nice .369 OBP to go along with his excellent .561 slugging percentage. The downside to Dalbec is the amount of swing and miss in his game, striking out 110 times in the first half of the season. It would be interesting to see how he fares if the Red Sox move him up to Portland in the second half.

 

Red Sox Who Could Crack Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2019

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When Baseball America released its top 100 list on Monday, the Red Sox only had two farmhands make the list. In recent years, the farm system has produced more than just two players on the list, and usually several much higher on the list. Jason Groome was the highest ranked Red Sox prospect at number 83. This was the lowest a Red Sox top prospect has shown up on this list since Dernell Stenson in 2001. This isn’t to say all hope is lost down on the farm. The other day I wrote about the two players who made the list, and the Red Sox have plenty of other intriguing names for the future. They may not be Yoan Moncada or Michael Kopech, but they have a few guys who could threaten to crack the top 100 list in 2019.

The Most Likely

Bryan Mata

Mata is an 18 year old who was signed out of Venezuela in 2016. He is very refined for such a young kid, being rated as having the best control in the Red Sox farm system by Baseball America. Oftentimes control is something that gets better with age, so for someone so young to be graded so highly is rare.

Mata is more than just a control pitcher, throwing in the low to mid-90’s as a teenager. One would assume he will add some velocity as he reaches his 20’s and fills out more. Currently he is very skinny and will need to bulk up to withstand a full season, but there is plenty of time to do that. Once he does fill out more it would not be surprising to see him sit in the mid-90’s with his fastball. Mata also throws a curveball and a changeup. These offerings show potential but both have some work to do. He more than held his own last year at Greenville, a level not usually reached by someone his age. At just 18, Mata is far advanced for his age and could make the top 100 next year with continued improvement.

Tanner Houck

Houck was the Red Sox 1st round pick this past season, so it would be nice to see a strong year from him to elevate him into Baseball America’s top 100. Coming out of Missouri, Houck has a great pitcher’s frame, standing at 6’5″ 220. His fastball velocity has a wide range, but can reach as high as 98 MPH. The pitch has good sink to it and no doubt can play at the Major League level. How far he gets will rely on his secondary pitches and his refinement. He has the body to be a workhorse, but if he fizzles out as a starter he has the stuff to be a late innings reliever.

Houck has the best slider in the Red Sox system according to Baseball America; a third pitch will be key in his development. Throwing from a 3/4 arm slot, Houck reminds me some of Justin Masterson. Masterson was a high pick by the Red Sox who had a heavy sink on his pitches and a good slider. It was up in the air whether he would be a starter or a reliever in the majors; he ultimately did some of both. Masterson never really developed another reliable pitch to maintain his successes, so hopefully Houck can add a reliable third pitch.

Right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck pitches against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Taylor Stadium (Tim Nwachukwu)

Josh Ockimey

Ockimey is a big first baseman with excellent raw power. Ockimey can put on displays of power in batting practice, but the home runs haven’t come in abundance yet in games. Often, that comes later with development. A lot of guys hit for more power once they reach the majors than they ever did in the minors. Take a look at Aaron Judge, who never hit more than 20 home runs in any season despite having a huge projection of power. At present, it’s more important that Ockimey keeps his batting eye and shows the ability to hit well enough to keep advancing.

Ockimey hit 18 home runs two years ago, but after a fast start his bat went ice cold and he finished the season with a .226 batting average. Despite such a low average, he got on base at a very respectable .364 clip thanks to his 88 walks. This is what I believe can help him become a regular at the big league level if he shows he can hit enough. With power and a great batting eye he could be a valuable player even if he batted .240. Last season he was able to bat .274 with a .385 on base percentage between two levels. Starting in AA Portland this year, if Ockimey can keep his average and walks in line with that he could crack the top 100 next season. There is still a wide range of possible scenarios for him, but he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.

Photo credit: Kelly O’Connor

If Things Fall Right

Mike Shawaryn

Shawaryn was a potential first round pick after his sophomore season at Maryland. That season he went 13-2 with a 1.71 ERA. After battling some injuries his junior season, Shawaryn fell to the 5th round. He had still performed well though, posting a 3.18 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Shawaryn has continued to produce in the Minor Leagues, posting an ERA below 4.00 at all three levels. Last year was his first full season and he struck out 169 batters over 135 innings between two levels. If he can show similar results this year he should have a chance to make the list in 2019.

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec took a step back this year after looking like one of the Red Sox top hitting prospects the year before. Dalbec both pitched and hit well in college, and could always give pitching a shot if hitting fails him. Before that though, he will see if he can rebound. Dalbec has big power, so if he can hit the ball more consistently he could develop into a Major Leaguer down the road. He batted .386 with 7 home runs in Lowell two years ago after being drafted in the 4th round. Last year he fell off to .246, although he did post a .345 on base percentage.

Right now, there is too much swing and miss to his game, if he can cut back on the strike outs his power might be able to play up more. If that happens, maybe Dalbec has a Michael Chavis type breakout this season. If that happened, along with his strong arm from third base Dalbec would certainly join the top 100 next year. The range of outcomes on him is large.

Photo by Peter Aiken

Dark Horse Candidates

Cole Brannen

Brannen was the Red Sox second round draft pick last season out of high school. He would likely need to have a strong showing this season to gain consideration from Baseball America since he is so young and not yet in full season ball. Brannen doesn’t have much power but projects to hit for good averages and is a speedy outfielder.

Alex Scherff

Another draft pick of the Red Sox last season, Scherff was a 5th round pick out of high school. He could have been a higher pick, but fell due to concerns over whether he would sign or go to college. Scherff already throws in the mid-90’s, occasionally reaching the upper 90’s. He will have to dominate low-A hitters this season to have a shot at the Baseball America top 100 next year.

Darwinzon Hernandez

Hernandez’ fastball was rated as the best in the system by Baseball America. Hernandez was 20 years old last season pitching in full season Greenville. He struck out over a batter per inning while showing off good stuff. If he can gain more consistency with his secondary offerings he could make a huge leap this coming season.

Roldani Baldwin

Baldwin is a lesser known Red Sox prospect who comes in all the way down at number 32 on sox prospects. Signed out of the Dominican back in 2014, Baldwin is still only 21 years old. Last season at Greenville he batted .274 with an impressive .489 slugging percentage. He shows good pop, hitting 14 home runs and 35 doubles in 368 at-bats last year. Oh, did I mention he was a catcher? Converted back to the position for last year, Baldwin threw out one-third of potential base stealers while showing the ability to play backstop. He might be a longshot to make the top 100 next year, but he is an intriguing dark horse to watch behind the plate moving forward.

Roldani Baldwin swinging (Bryan Green)

Featured picture from Over the Monster.