After sweeping Seattle and then splitting the series with the Rockies, the Red Sox are looking at .500 in the rear view mirror. However, now the Red Sox embark on a huge part of their schedule. In their next five series they face the Astros home and away, square off with Cleveland at Fenway, then head to New York. This series against the Astros could lay a marker for how the coming weeks might shape up.
5/18 Rick Porcello vs. Gerrit Cole (R) 7:10 pm NESN
5/19 Hector Velazquez vs. Corbin Martin (R) 7:15 pm NESN
5/20 Chris Sale vs. Brad Peacock (R) 1:05 pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
Pitchers
It is nice to be talking positively about Chris Sale again! In his last five starts, Sale has allowed just seven earned runs in 33 innings pitched. There is also the small matter of the incredibly number of strikeouts. In those last five starts he has 59 strikeouts. That is as incredible as it gets, and is nearly two strikeouts per innings! In fact the guys at Fangraphs took a deep dive into Sale’s 2019 season so far, which I highly recommend you read.
Corbin Martin was very impressive in his season debut for the Astros. In 5 1/3 innings he struck out nine and allowed just two earned runs. However, the Rangers and Red Sox are very different teams. The Rangers brand of baseball right now is essentially all or nothing. They are either going to batter you, or strikeout trying. The Red Sox have a little more nuance to their offense. It will be interesting to see how Martin fairs, but more than anything it will be good for the Red Sox to get a chance to face him. There is a good chance they could be seeing him again come playoff time.
Gerrit Cole is the ace in this series for the Astros. However, he has had some struggles in 2019, especially on the road. Away from Houston this season Cole has a 4.30 ERA, but has struck out 49 hitters in 29 1/3 innings. This should be a fascinating duel between a pitcher providing mixed results, and a lineup which is starting to hit its rhythm.
Hitters
The Red Sox face three right-handed pitchers in this series in the form of Cole, Martin and Peacock. This season the Red Sox hitters rank 15th in home runs, fifth in batting average, and eighth in runs scored against righties. However, they will need to be at their peak at the plate in this series against a potent Astros team.
The Astros offense is lighting up the stat sheet this season. Heading into this series they rank first in the majors in batting average, OBP, runs, home runs and slugging percentage. Their offense is a juggernaut. Either this team is going to have to pitch well, or the hitters are going to have to go toe-to-toe with them.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Rotation: The news that Sale is back close to his old self is a massive relief, but their are still question marks. Porcello is just meh, and the Red Sox are going to need him to be better come the end of the season and during the playoffs. Velazquez has been promising, but he has only gone five innings once this season, mostly serving in a relief role. Now would be a great time for Sale to show us he is right back at the height of his powers, and for Porcello to step up and demonstrate he can be a contributor in the playoffs this year.
Hitting: Now that J.D. Martinez is finally starting to find his power legs things feel a little more comfortable. Martinez already has five home runs this month, and his power being a factor means that this lineup can go head-to-head with anyone. On top of that Andrew Benintendi has three home runs this month, and suddenly this team is not being carried by the power of Mitch Moreland and Michael Chavis, which is a huge relief. Now it would be great if this lineup can take apart a good rotation and settle any remaining concerns.
EXPECTATIONS
The three game cushion over the .500 mark provides some consolation that if things go wrong here, the Red Sox are still above water. However, this series is about so much more than just this series. The way the Astros are playing there is a good chance that the Red Sox will meet them again in the Postseason. That series is also more likely to be on the road right now, so losing to them at home would be less than ideal.
This series is the first part of an Astros double, with a trip to the Blue Jays filling the sandwich. The Red Sox have a legitimate opportunity to stamp their authority back on the AL over the next week. If they can win series both at home and on the road against the Astros, everyone will be back to taking them seriously. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Right now getting out of Boston with a win in this series would be a major accomplishment.
With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.
American League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu
Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi
John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman
Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit
Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.
Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.
National League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar
Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.
American League Cy Young
Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez
Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber
John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger
Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.
Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.
Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?
National League Cy Young
Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo
Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler
John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland
Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray
Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.
“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.
American League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.
Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.
National League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso
Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel
Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.
Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.
American League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash
Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora
Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?
National League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell
John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black
Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.
The Red Sox take on the Houston Astros this weekend in a three game set that many believe is an ALCS preview. There will be plenty to take in at Fenway Park over the next few days. Here’s what I’ll be keeping my eye on:
Aces, Charles, You’re Aces
Aces are often the case when top flight teams face off, and there will be some big time pitching matchups worth tuning in for.
Friday night’s tilt features two of the AL’s best: Gerrit Cole and David Price. Cole was a CY Young favorite earlier this season. In his first 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and a .169 batting average against. However, he’s cooled recently. Since the calendar flipped to August, he’s 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Conversely, Price is just hitting his stride. The 2012 AL CY Young award winner has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s shut down opposing bats to the tune of a 1.62 second-half ERA, with an exquisite 6.14 K/BB ratio over his last 7 starts.
Saturday’s matchup is solid as well, with Houston’s Charlie Morton (13-3, 3.13 ERA) facing off against Eduardo Rodriguez (12-3, 3.34 ERA). Both guys are in the midst of career years, and overcoming recent DL stints. This will be Morton’s first start since August 28th, and Rodriguez’s second start since returning from the DL earlier this month. Of course, we all remember how that first start went:
Buenas noticias para @RedSox Eduardo Rodríguez lució enorme en su primera apertura, luego de salir de la lista de lesionados 12 ponches🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZPwlh1p9dG
As if that wasn’t enough, Sunday features the two of the last three AL CY Young winners. Rick Porcello is looking to rebound from an especially tough stretch; he’s allowed a HR in 10 of his last 13 starts, and has a 5.21 ERA since June 27th. Dallas Keuchel has been Houston’s 4th best starter, though he’d be a #2 or #3 guy on most clubs. He’s been effective all season long, and will be coming off of a 6 inning, 0 earned-run outing against the Twins on Monday.
Even without Chris Sale and Justin Verlander toeing the rubber, both teams have plenty of starting pitching to keep things interesting all weekend.
Mitchy No Bags
On May 25th, the Red Sox DFA’ed Hanley Ramirez. There were plenty of extenuating factors that went into that roster decision, including first-baseman Mitch Moreland‘s red hot start. It made sense at the time. Moreland was hitting .318/.393/.636 with 8 HR in 122 PA, along with his typically stellar defense. He’s since gone into a tailspin. In 75 games since May 26th, Moreland is only slashing .220/.294/.374 with 7 HR. He’s also 1 for his last 18 at bats.
Moreland is a career .252/.318/.440 hitter, and the totality of his 2018 has reflected that larger sample size. However, considering how hard he faltered in the second half of 2017, Sox fans have reason to worry that they won’t get enough out of a key cog come playoff time. If Moreland is going to get hot again, this weekend would be a good time to start.
Old Dogs, Old Tricks
Second base has been a struggle for the Sox this season. They rank 26th in the majors with a 83 wRC+ at that position. Dustin Pedroia‘s consistent offensive output and strong defense (*cough* Nunez *cough*) has been missed.
The good news? A couple of former All-Stars have made their presence felt at that spot recently. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips may be long in the tooth, but they’re contributing in a big way down the stretch.
Kinsler got off to a slow start this season. But, he began to find a rhythm right before the Red Sox acquired him on July 30th. In 21 games for Boston, he’s hit .310/.355./408 with a 106 OPS+. His slick defense has been a major upgrade, too. Kinsler was 4-11 with 5 RBI in the Red Sox sweep of the Braves earlier this week, including a couple of rare (for him) opposite-field gappers.
Brandon Phillips signed a minor league contract in June, and made his Red Sox debut on Wednesday. His impact was, in a word, immediate:
There’s still about a month until the postseason roster shakes out. But these two former All-Stars have tons to offer the Sox in the here and now. We’ll see if they continue to make the most of their opportunities against the reigning world champs.
This weekend is must watch TV for Red Sox fans. The results may not be predicative of what will happen in October, but they will go a long way towards determining who has the upper hand should we see this matchup again.
