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BSE Baseball Writers MLB Awards Predictions

American League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu

Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi

John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman

Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit

Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.

Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.

National League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar

Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.

Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.

American League Cy Young

Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez

Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber

John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger

Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.

Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.

Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?

National League Cy Young

Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo

Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler

John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland

Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray

Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.

“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.

American League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.

National League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso

Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel

Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.

Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.

American League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash

Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora

Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?

National League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell

John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black

Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.

Gabe Kapler and the Phillies are trending up.

Featured picture taken from CBS Philly

The Top Starting Pitchers in Baseball

1. Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw, pretty clearly to me, is the best pitcher in baseball. What he has accomplished these past five to seven years is historic, and at just 29 years old he is already a top 10 left-handed pitcher of all-time in my book. From 2013-2016, Kershaw had an ERA below 2.00 in three of those four seasons. His WHIP has been under 1.00 in each of the past five seasons.

In these past seven years, Kershaw has a 118-41 win-loss record to go with a 2.10 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. During this remarkable run, he has never finished lower than 5th in the Cy Young vote; that fifth place finish was thanks to an injury. If Kershaw had not missed time that year he likely would have won his 4th Cy Young. As it stands, he has three of them along with two 2nd place finishes and an MVP Award.

If there is one thing that can keep Clayton Kershaw from being number one, it is injuries. Kershaw has missed some time the past couple seasons due to injury. The injuries haven’t been to his arm, but each of the last two years it has been a back injury that has forced him out. The fact that he has now had recurring issues with his back is of some concern. However, with how dominant he is, and just turning 30 this March, Kershaw still ranks number one in my book.

2. Max Scherzer

At 33, Scherzer is the old man of the lists, which makes me feel old. It doesn’t seem like that long ago I took him as a dark horse to win the AL Cy Young and he did. Since, Scherzer has developed into one of the very best in the game. Over the past five seasons, Scherzer has won 3 Cy Young Awards and placed in the top five in the other two. During that stretch, he is 89-33 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.9 strike outs per nine innings. Scherzer has also thrown two no-hitters and tied a Major League mark by striking out 20 batters in one game. He seems like he will contend for Cy Young Awards for a few more seasons, and that is good enough for me.

Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire

3. Corey Kluber

I don’t think you can go wrong in an order for these top three pitchers. What Kluber has done while pitching in the American League could certainly warrant consideration for the top spot. Surprising to me, Kluber will be 32 this April, two years older than Kershaw despite beginning his career later. Kluber has really taken off the past four seasons, winning two Cy Young Awards and placing third in another year. He has led the league in wins twice, ERA once and WHIP once during that span. He has also struck out more batters than innings pitched in each of those seasons. Kluber rode a fantastic second half last season to his second Cy Young Award. With 1006 strike outs, a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past four seasons, it’s hard to argue with Kluber in any one of these top three spots.

4. Chris Sale

Sale is the first one who won’t be 30 by season’s end. However, as great as Sale is, he seems to be a notch behind the three above him. Nonetheless, what Sale has achieved is pretty amazing. Sale began his professional career as a relief pitcher, making just 11 appearances in the minors before a call up the same year he was drafted. He then made 79 relief appearances over his first two seasons. In his six seasons since as a starter, Sale has made six all-star teams and has never finished lower than sixth place in a Cy Young vote. He has a 3.01 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings during that time period.

After being acquired by the Red Sox last offseason, Sale struck out a career high 308 batters and led the league. This was the second time in his career that Sale had led the league in strike outs. The total helped Sale to a second place Cy Young finish behind Corey Kluber, the closest he has come to winning the award. One thing that could help Sale invade the ranks of the guys above him is finishing years stronger. Sale has a tendency to fade late in the year, with September being by far the worst month of his career historically.

Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner seems like he has been around for a while and thrown a ton of innings, but he is still only 28 years old. One of the best pitchers in baseball this decade, Bumgarner has a 3.01 career ERA. Before last season’s injury plagued year, he had posted an ERA under 3.00 in four consecutive seasons. His strike out rate had also been climbing during that stretch, peaking at 10 strike outs per nine in 2016.

Where Bumgarner really separates himself is in the postseason. Over 14 starts and 16 appearances during postseason play, Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 2.11 ERA. He elevates his game even further for the World Series, going 4-0 with a save in his five appearances. During those games, Bumgarner has allowed one run, just one, over 36 innings pitched. He has allowed an absurd 14 base hits during those 36 innings. He is the pitcher you want on the mound come playoffs.

Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

6. Noah Syndergaard

“Thor”, as he has been called, has only pitched in parts of three seasons at the big league level. Last season was mostly a wasted season for him, only making seven starts due to injury. The fact he still comes in at six speaks volumes to the talent he has shown. Syndergaard’s average fastball this past season was 98.6 miles per hour! That’s just his average, not his top speed. His devastating slider sits in the low to mid-90’s, which is nearly unheard of for a breaking pitch. In 2016, his one full season to this point, Syndergaard had a 2.60 ERA and struck out 218 batters against just 43 walks. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet.

7. Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg is the second Nationals player to make this list. One of the most hyped pitchers I have witnessed coming out of college, Strasburg has always been good, but never quite living up to expectations. Last season, seven years after his debut, Strasburg posted the best season of his career. He was 15-4 with a career low 2.52 ERA and 1.015 WHIP. Maybe he is learning what it takes to fully tap into all that potential. His biggest pitfall has been injuries. Strasburg blew out his arm in just his second professional season and hasn’t made 30 starts in any of the last three seasons.

8. Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel doesn’t get enough recognition from the media and public because he isn’t a flashy strike out pitcher. However, all he does is get outs, and a lot of them come on the ground. Since Keuchel broke out four years ago, he has struck out 7.6 batters per nine innings. That total was pretty decent in the nineties, but nowadays it barely registers on the radar. It doesn’t matter though, Keuchel has posted an ERA below 3.00 in three of the last four seasons. In 2015 he won the Cy Young Award after going 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. Last year he may have contended for the award again had it not been for injury. On June 2nd, when he went down with the injury, Keuchel was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. He missed nearly two months and had a few rocky outings after returning.

9. Luis Severino

At 23 years old, Severino is the youngest one on my list. He will be 24 by month’s end, and his inclusion here is a nod to his age and the promise he has shown. Before the 2015 seasons, Baseball America rated Severino as the 35th best prospect in baseball. After dominating AAA he showed promise in 11 starts at the big league level. To the delight of Red Sox fans, he was a mess the following season, going 3-8 with a very high ERA and WHIP. However, Severino fixed whatever was wrong and came back stronger than ever last season. While pitching in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums, Severino went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings.

10. Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco, although highly thought of, also seems to fly just a little under the radar. After being a good prospect as far back as a decade ago, Carrasco took some time to find his footing. Since his breakout in 2014 though, he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. I gave him the nod at the tenth spot over a couple National Leaguers because his numbers are similar while pitching in a tougher league. Turning 31 just before the start of this coming season, Carrasco should have plenty of years left in his arm. Over the past four seasons he has a 3.24 ERA and a stellar 1.08 WHIP. Carrasco has also struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings and is coming off a career high 226 strike outs this past season.

Honorable Mentions:

Jacob DeGrom, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke

Featured picture taken from SI.com

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