Tag Archives: The 2018 World Series

Nathan Eovaldi Is Back

2 Replies

The Red Sox have re-signed Nathan Eovaldi to a 4 year, $67.5 Million deal.  The postseason horse is back in the barn.  Because of the lack of home grown talent, and a shallow free agent pool, this was a move the Red Sox needed to make.

Overpaid?

Well respected and knowledgeable baseball minds are trumpeting how bad a deal this is.  To whit:

Framingham’s own Lou Merloni was on the airwaves of WEEI and NBCSN last night saying essentially the same thing.  Because of Eovaldi’s injury history, this is an over-pay.

It is true that Eovaldi has not been consistent in his career.  Therefore, the Red Sox could paying for only potential.  But where does this deal stack up against a different set of peers than the esteemed Mr. Massarotti put forth:

  • Yu Darvish $21 Million
  • Jeff Samardzija $18 Million
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $17.9 Million
  • Nathan Eovaldi $16.875 Million
  • Mike Leake $16 Million
  • Wei-Yin Chen $16 Million
  • Rich Hill $16 Million

In this context, Eovaldi almost looks like a bargain.

October Performance

Songs have been sung about Eovaldi’s guts in Game 3 of the World Series alone, because these numbers are positively Schilling-esk:

22.1 Innings, 2-1 record, 15 Hits, 3 Walks, 16 Strikeouts, 1.61 ERA

He pitched in three of the five World Series games, and was the hard-luck looser in the longest game in World Series history.  Because of his 6 innings of extra innings work in Game 3, the bullpen was saved, as well as the other starters.  This ultimately resulted in a World Series Championship.

Nathan Eovaldi Is Necessary 

The Red Sox have almost no starting pitcher talent in the minor leagues.  Their best prospect, Jay Groome, underwent Tommy John Surgery in May of this year.  Beyond Groome, there is no one to speak of who could help the Red Sox in 2019.

If not Eovaldi, then what?  J.A. Happ: A 36 year old pitcher who pitched a grand total of 2 innings in the Yankees Game 1 loss to the Red Sox in the Divisional Round.  Dallas Keuchel: A 31 year old pitcher who has already had his best days.  Eovaldi’s best days are ahead.

Perhaps the Eovaldi signing leads to a bigger deal.  At the very least, the Red Sox have a solid #3 or #4 starter.  And he has the potential to be more, at a reasonable cost.

 

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: Joe Kelly or David Robertson

5 Replies

There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Two big pieces, closer Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, are both free agents.  Who is worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Today is the beginning of our deep dive into those questions.  We start with Joe Kelly.

Joe Kelly

Kelly had an indelible stamp on the 2018 team.  He started the year by blowing game 1.  He became Jim Buchanon and started a Joe Kelly Fight Club faze when he called out Tyler Austin of the Yankees.  Then he became an afterthought and albatross around the neck of the bullpen as the summer dragged on.

But then, in the playoffs, the mid-bullpen became a strength, because he became a strength.  In six innings in the World Series he had a 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts.  That is domination.

However, is that the Joe Kelly we know for any other stretch of time?  His ERA over the past three years has been 4.12 during the regular season.  His fastball has averaged 97.8 MPH over that same time.  How is that?

It has been noted frequently that his fastball is straight, and he could not get his breaking ball over for strikes.  This lead to walks, a lot of them.  Almost 5 per 9 innings, 4.67 to be exact.

It feels like instead of only relying on his gifted arm that can throw gas with ease, he finally starting pitching in this postseason.  Because he threw his breaking ball for strikes, it was almost that simple.

It’s at least a question whether he can repeat it.  Will he continue to work after winning the World Series?  Is he worth betting on?  History says no.  How about an alternative?

David Robertson

One name is David Robertson.  He has spent the past year and a half toiling in the mid to late innings for the New York Yankees.  Before that he was the Chicago White Sox closer.  Unlike Craig Kimbrel, Robertson has proven he can work in different innings and different game situations.

He throws a lot softer than Joe Kelly, averaging 91.9 MPH over the same 3 year period.  But his ERA weighs in at 2.85, about 30% better than Kelly.   He also strikes out 25% more batters.  How can this be?

Because he throws more strikes, and he pitches rather than throws.  He walks a batter less than Kelly.  Less runners on base leads to fewer runs allowed.

Conclusion

It’s not perfect.  Robertson still walks 3.7 per 9 innings, that’s high for a reliever.  Robertson is also 3 years older than Kelly.

But Kelly was not given the 8th inning with a lead until game 5 of the World Series.  This was not an accident, Cora didn’t trust him there.  Robertson can work the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever you want.

Robertson will command north of what he’s making now, $13 Million per year.  Kelly probably much less.  But a team could bid up Kelly and make him expensive.

The choice here is Robertson, if you can convince him.  He’s representing himself in free agent negotiations and probably looking for closing opportunities.

The Red Sox might have an opening at closer.  More on that tomorrow.

Jackie Bradley Jr. A Better Option

1 Reply

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

The Mookie debate about where he should play in Dodger stadium is so obviously over.   But that means someone else in the outfield has to sit.  It’s a grudge match between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi.  Let’s get ready to rumble!

By The Stats

I’m not going to flood you with statistics.  Suffice to say, JBJ was close to 20% better than Benny in September against left handed pitching.  That’s important, because the bulk of the best pitching on the Dodgers is left handed.

In the playoffs against all pitching, JBJ is a full 50% better than Benny.  I’ve made light of Jackie’s three swings bringing him the MVP of the ALCS, but they were pretty big swings.  Remember Papi in 2013 off Tigers closer Joaquin Benoit?

https://youtu.be/CYosReytpcM

Papi only hit .248 in that ALCS.  But that one swing in game 2 changed everything.

Now from Jackie we have this in the 2018 ALCS:

https://youtu.be/NH18WpVfCgE

Sure, Jackie hit just .200, but that was no slap hitter .200.  That was a Herculean .200.  Can you remember any Benintendi at bats like that in the past month?  Much fewer and farther between than from JBJ.

Almost Clear Cut

The fact remains these are small sample sizes we’re talking about.  Jackie’s streaky hitting is legendary around here.  How many times have we seen him hot as a pistol for a few weeks, only to fall back to mediocrity?  Benny is steadier metronome of productivity.

It might come down to how these two perform in the first two games of the World Series against The Dodgers dual lefties of Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Cora’s lineups might even give us a clue in these two games.  If Benny or JBJ sits it will be a telltale of what’s to come.

Let’s Go Boys!

Meantime let’s treat The Dodgers like the Boltons treated the Kingslayer and sever their best weapon tonight.  If the Sox can conquer Kershaw in Game One it will shatter their confidence and lay a clear path to another World Series Title.

Mookie Betts Should Not Play Second Base in the World Series

3 Replies

The news that Mookie Betts could play at second base is percolating in the World Series buildup.  It’s thrilling, exciting, and fascinating to think about.  Could Mookie play second when the World Series moves to Chavez Ravine?

THE CASE FOR MOOKIE AT SECOND

I love Rochie.  Who doesn’t love Rochie?  To dream like him and be filled with wonder like him, that is living.  And it’s not just pure fandom rooting for this.  There are others making the argument that it truly makes sense.  The noted Yankee fan MLB writers at The Ringer are making the case.

BETTS WANTS TO PLAY SECOND

There is something Rochie, and others salivating over Betts at second footage, don’t realize or mention: Betts has been doing this all year.

Betts is like that kid at CVS begging and touching all the candy when Mom and/or Dad have their hands full with prescriptions.  He’s the relentless ‘A ‘ student begging teachers for every last point.  He’s Bugs Bunny to the Red Sox coaching staff’s Daffy Duck.

It is undeniable.  Mookie Betts wants to play second base.

His consistent and unflinching ground ball work at second yielded fruit: He played 4 innings at second on August 3rd 2018 against the Yankees.  That happened to coincide with Alex Cora being ejected in the first inning.  Mookie focused his laser beam of intensity on bench coach Ron Roenicke, and Roenicke wilted.

Mookie knew he had to act fast while Cora was hot over being ejected.  He got in at second in the second inning, he was back in right field by the 8th.

WHY BETTS WON’T PLAY SECOND

One thing Betts to second champions are harping on is an Alex Cora interview I watched on the MLB Network.  You can find the full interview here.  He discusses the Mookie Betts to second possibility around the 23 minute mark.

Among the quotes there are a couple that jump out.

Speaking to Betts tenacity and Cora’s unwillingness “Today he’s going to try a few double plays…like I said there’s a chance, but it’s not like he will…”  Mookie is very much Lloyd Christmas in this situation.

On the need for an experienced second baseman “(The) thing is in the national league they bunt, you know, and advance runners..”

On the Red Sox pitching staff “But…we don’t throw too many ground balls, it’s either strikeouts or fly balls.”  In other words, the Sox need excellent outfield play to compliment the pitching staff.

Remember this?

How about this?

https://twitter.com/brianlowrider/status/1053180382986661888

To invoke a certain Colonel Jessep; we want him on that wall, we need him on that wall!  Mookie probably won’t make any outstanding plays at second base.  But Minerva McGalleon McGonagall herself would bet on Mookie making incredible outfield plays.

Alex Cora will have plenty of lineup decisions to make in the 2018 World Series.  Putting Mookie anywhere but the outfield will not be one of them.

You can find the full interview with Alex Cora (Via CLNS) here.

The Red Sox Dodgers Preview Extravaganza

2 Replies

The Dodgers just dispatched the upstart Brewers and move on to face the Red Sox in the 2018 World Series.  Cue the grainy black and white photos of The Babe in a Red Sox uniform. Let us see the Dropkick Murphy’s grinding rendition of Tessie. 

Cue fans using the Brooklyn Robins in barroom and water cooler talk, and a million google searches for ‘Red Sox-Dodgers world series history’ hitting the 1916 World Series page on Wikipedia.  Cue every old Brooklyn Dodger fan coming out of the woodwork, and the slightly less grainy photos and videos of Roy Campanella, Jackie Robinson, and Pee Wee Reese. A mountain of content on the 1988 LA Dodgers World Series winners will come out.

Cue Fever Pitch where the old guy counts off the string of Red Sox world series wins in 1912, 1915, 1916, 1918. Prompt Dave Roberts making his fateful steal in the bottom of the 9th in game 4 against Mariano Rivera.  Cue pictures of Alex Cora in an LA Dodgers uniform. The rating of this series is through the roof! 

It’s an old-school, original 6 type of World Series that will be chock full of intrigue and potential controversy.

Detroit Public Library

THE RED SOX

With a resounding thud, all the doubting and putting down of the 2018 Red Sox has been pushed off the desks of commentators nationwide.  This team is an absolute wagon with a horseshoe, four-leafed clover, and all the baseball gods in their back pocket. 

All the beautiful poignant vignettes of warm feelings are still cascading around the Red Sox: The Alex Cora birthday serenade in the clubhouse after beating the Houston Astros in 5 games.  David Price’s moment with friends and family that choked everyone up.  Alex Cora talking about the Red Sox sending supplies to his storm-ravaged homeland.  Alex Cora is the first manager from Puerto Rico to take his team to the World Series.  

Yes, changing managers can make a world of difference in the day to day operations clubhouse and team.  It doesn’t hurt that Cora is batting, oh, around .800 with his in-game and lineup decisions so far in the playoffs.

There’s every reason in our provincial New England bubble to expect a romp over the Dodgers in the World Series.  The bats are batting: JBJ! JD! PEARCY! MITCHY!  The gloves are catching: BENNY! MOOKIE! The pitchers pitching: PRICE! BRASIER! KELLY! BARNES! PORCELLO! Even maybe SALE!  Possibly KIMBREL!

THE DODGERS

PITCHING

And yet, there is a reason to pause.  

When it comes to the match-ups there’s not much, but what there is tends to favor the Dodgers.  Of the four starting pitchers on LA (Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, local boy made good Rich Hill, Walker Buehler), there’s only one player on the Red Sox who have any history. That’s JD Martinez against Kershaw.  It’s a minuscule 8 at-bats, but JD has managed a home run, double and .375 average against the talented lefty.

HITTING

On the other side are two individuals that show up again and again.  

We’ll start with Brian Dozier. He may not be what he once was, but he has a boatload of experience against the suddenly vaunted Red Sox staff. Dozier’s batting average doesn’t jump off the page, but the power does: Against Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello, Dozier has 9 doubles and 9 home runs in 146 at-bats.  If we push those to a full season that’s a 36 double and 36 homer pace.

And he’s the appetizer.

The main man, the designated villain of Red Sox fans and now most of Baseball, is none other than Manny Machado. The side stepper, the slide stabber, the very very bad man.

https://twitter.com/tosa_tina_/status/1052522276766273536

And he’s a force against the Red Sox pitchers: 4 doubles, 9 homers, 108 at-bats.  That’s a projected 18 doubles and, gulp, 41 home runs, and also hits a combined .298 against the Boston starters. 

Throw in the fact that the Sox batters haven’t seen the Dodgers pitchers and it could be an edge for the boys in blue.

We finish with one more subtle note on Alex Cora’s staff.  The hitting coach of the Red Sox is Tim Hyers.  If that name doesn’t leap off the page, it’s not your fault.  Hyers does what the best coaches do, he lets the players shine and stays in the shadows. 

It turns out Mr. Hyers was the Dodgers assistant hitting coach last year.  That means he has the inside track on the Dodgers best hitters, including Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Yasiel Puig among others. 

It’s going to be a fun series, why do we have to wait until Tuesday?