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RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

After all of the optimism of last week, the Red Sox enter this series on a low. Having taken five of their previous six games, they are now on a four-game losing streak. Dropping two games to the rays was bad. Losing all three was a disaster. There was a real chance the Red Sox could have come into this series seven-ish games behind the Yankees, with the chance to get within five. Instead, they are 10.5 behind, and even if everything goes perfect they will still be over seven games behind.

7/25 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. James Paxton (L) 7:05 pm NESN

7/26 Chris Sale vs. Domingo German (R) 1:05 pm NESN

7/27 Brian Johnson vs. TBD 7:05 pm NESN

7/28 David Price vs. J.A. Happ (L) 7:00 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Eduardo Rodriguez really turned it on in July after a mixed start of the season. After allowing 52 earned runs in his first 97 2/3 innings, he allowed just seven earned runs in 31 innings in July, giving him a 2.03 ERA. His one Achilles heel here could be that he has a 4.35 ERA on the road, but much of that damage was done prior to the July turn around. Rodrguez could get the Red Sox off to a flying start in this series.

What a strange season it has been for James Paxton at home. In his first five home starts he allowed just one earned run in 26 2/3 innings with 37 strikeouts. However, in the last five starts in New York things have somewhat changed. In 21 1/3 innings he has allowed 19 earned runs with 24 strikeouts. It has been a clear season of two halves so far, so which Paxton will we see this time around?

Domingo German has been superb at home this season, with a 2.13 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those home starts. That matchup with Sale in the early start on Saturday is going to be a fascinating watch, but it might be hard for Sale to come out on top.

HITTERS

The Red Sox could not have a better combination of pitchers in this series, given they have three left-handed pitchers and the Yankees are distinctly average against lefties this season. They rank 15th in the league in batting average, 14th in slugging percentage and ISO, and 11th in K%.

So far the Red Sox offense has built through the season, and they appear to be peaking right now. Having hit just .239 in April/May, they hit .302 in July, with a .534 slugging percentage and 173 runs scored. They could not be heading into New York in much better form at the plate than they are.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The red Sox pitching staff has generally been better on the road this season. Yes, they have allowed more home runs in fewer games on the road, but around that they have performed better. On the road, they own a 4.34 ERA and a .249 batting average against. This is important because the Red Sox need to keep picking up wins away from home. They are also likely to be playing playoff series as the road team, and given their home form they will need to pinch a few games on the road if they want to make a deep playoff run.

Hitting: Andrew Benintendi has received a lot of flack this season for his performance. However, what he does extremely well is hit the Yankees. In his career he hits .317 with a .523 slugging percentage against them. He has been especially good these past two seasons, hitting over .300 both years. This season, in 36 PA he is hitting .396 with two home runs and five extra-base hits. In big spots this season the Red Sox will be hoping that Benintendi can continue that form.

EXPECTATIONS

It is too early to completely write off the Red Sox shot at the division, but after this most recent series, it is hanging by a thread. For the last month or so they have Yo-Yo’d around this 8-10 game mark behind the Yankees. It is realistic to say that the Wildcard is their most likely route to the playoffs. However, that does not mean they should not target the division.

This will be a tough series, but then we were saying this last week at this time. The Red Sox proved last week that they can go toe-to-toe with this Yankees team. Even if they do not ultimately win the division, taking these games off the Yankees now could reap psychological benefits down the road. This series may ultimately end up not mattering for the division, but for the wildcard, the pride of the Red Sox and potentially putting fear into this Yankees team, it matters a lot.

RED SOX – RAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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When I wrote the Rays series preview last week I started it by asking if the prior series could have gone much worse. Just a week later and the tone and feeling around this team is so different. The Red Sox took five of their seven games against the Rays and Yankees, and really could not have dreamed of much more. However, if it had not been for dropping the final game of each series it could have been the perfect week.

7/30 David Pricevs. Charlie Morton (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/31 Rick Porcello vs. Ryan Yarbrough (L) 7:10 pm NESN

8/1 Andrew Cashner vs. TBD 7:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Price and Morton will go head to head once again to open this series, having closed out the last one. Combined they pitched 13 innings, allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out 19. They might find it a little tougher in the more hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park, but this should be a matchup to watch.

With Yarbrough currently projected to start the second game, it is worth looking at how he fares as a starter this season and in his career. Both this season and in his career he is worse as a starter than a reliever, but that is not hugely surprising given the situations. However, the split that should concern the Red Sox is home versus away. At home, his ERA in any role is 5.79, but on the road that drops to 2.79. The Red Sox cannot allow that game to slip through their fingers, but it will not be easy.

The still relatively new Red Sox pitcher Andrew Cashner has a limited body of work against the Rays. He has just five starts and 29 innings against them in his career. His overall numbers are fairly middling, with a 4.03 ERA, 2-1 record, 18 strikeouts, and 12 walks. Not good, but not a disaster. Against a usually stingy Rays pitching staff the Red Sox could do with him being good in this one.

HITTERS

The Red Sox offense has been on fire in the last week. In the last seven days, they have hit .354 with 11 home, 46 runs scored and a whopping 37 extra-base hits. That does not even include the 14 runs they scored in the first two games of the last Rays series. This is the offense we expected this season, and we need to see more of it.

Getting on top of the Rays offense is key to victory. That is an obvious statement, but when I say early I mean really early, as in the first batter of the game. This season, in 108 PA the Rays have hit .340 in that spot, with eight runs, 15 extra-base hits, eight walks, and just 18 strikeouts. Overall the number one hitter in their order has a .306 batting average, 28 home runs, and 57 extra-base hits. That leads all positions in their batting order.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The righties on this roster are the big question mark right now, well, and Chris Sale too. However, focusing on Porcello and Cashner is key for opponents right now. The two righties have been unimpressive this season, and the Red Sox need that to change. Their two starts against a lineup which is solid but unspectacular will be key. If they blow up, and the Red Sox lose to two of the Rays lesser starters, they once again head to face the Yankees in a lot of trouble.

Hitting: Hopefully, we are just going to sit back and watch this lineup do their work. However, the real intrigue is Morton, because if the Red Sox want a World Series they will likely need to beat pitchers like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Perhaps even Morton himself in a play-in game to just simply get into a full playoff series. Lay down a marker in Game 1 and the best pitchers in the league will suddenly fear this offense a little more.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox are flying high right now. Although if they are the team we want them to be they will be beating themselves up over those two losses in winnable situations to end those series. However, they have given themselves an outside shot at the division, and put themselves in a better position for the Wildcard game.

Going to New York will be tough, especially given the Red Sox are better at home than on the road. Therefore, this series needs to be a win. Ideally, it needs to be 3-0 to really put pressure on the Yankees, but that might be asking too much. The Red Sox offense will be key here. Can they get after Morton? Hopefully. Do they need to provide some run support for the last two games in the series? Most definitely. If they do not they could be facing a series defeat and being double-digit games behind the Yankees all over again.

RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

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It was so close to being the perfect series for the Red Sox down in Tampa. After taking the first two games of the series they just failed to pick up the third against Charlie Morton. Officially as of writing that game is under protest, but if I understand the rules correctly the result will stand. Whatever happens with that game, the Red Sox mentally need to move on and be ready for this massive series with the Yankees. Take three of these games and they have a shot in the division. Lose three and it is as good as over as far as the division is concerned.

7/25 Rick Porcello vs. Masahiro Tanaka (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/26 Andrew Cashner vs. James Paxton (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/27 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. C.C. Sabathia (L) 4:05 pm NESN

7/28 Chris Sale vs. Domingo German (R) 7:00 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The last time we saw Rick Porcello and Masahiro Tanaka face off it were in London and it did not go well in for either. Since that outing, both pitchers have struggled, with Tanaka having a 5.40 ERA and Porcello an 8.64 ERA in their starts since. There is every chance this first game could be high scoring.

Here are this season road ERAs for the Yankees pitchers. Tanaka: 5.40; Paxton: 4.78; German: 5.66; Sabathia: 6.59. The Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities to score runs in this series, and with some of the struggles their pitching staff has had they will need to.

So Cashner is not off to a great start with the Red Sox, having a 7.36 ERA through two starts. It is a small sample size so no need to panic yet, but this will be a tough test. In his career, Cashner has faced off with the Yankees 10 times. Over the course of 10 starts, he has a 2-5 record with a 3.96 ERA. However, in three starts in 2019 he has a 6.19 ERA and an 0-2 record. The Red Sox desperately need him to change that.

HITTERS

After a sluggish start, the Yankees offense has killed it in the last two months. In those first two months, they hit below .260 with a .450 slugging percentage. However, since the start of June, they have hit over .280 with a slugging percentage over .500. Since the All-Star break, they have hit .303 with 24 home runs and a .541 slugging percentage.

The Red Sox have had more success at home than on the road this season. Their batting average at Fenway Park is .277, compared to .267 on the road, with a .475 slugging percentage, compared to .451. They will need to be every bit at their home best if they are to go toe-to-toe with this Yankees offense.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: This is the ultimate test of this pitching staff. Series like these are where heroes stand up and make themselves known. That is especially the case with arguably the Red Sox three weakest starters on the mound. There is a chance this bullpen will be tested to the max across this series, and how they cope will be very telling.

Hitting: I mentioned the Red Sox starters road ERA above and that will be key for the Red Sox. This season they have been better against relievers than starters, by a fairly significant margin. If they can get on top of the first couple of starters in this series they could do some real damage to this bullpen by the end of the series.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox briefly got themselves tied for second place in the division. However, their loss to the Rays in the final game has left them trailing the Yankees by 11 games. Even if they win this series 3-1 they will only close up two games and just creep back under double-digits.

The Red Sox need to lay down a marker in this series. They will face the Yankees on the road next week and if they can carry a 3-1 or 4-0 victory out of this series then they could spring a real surprise next week. The only way back into this is likely to be small victories but closing up four or six games in these two series would really give them a shot heading into the final third of the season.

RED SOX – RAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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Well, that series with the Orioles could not have gone much worse. Coming into the series the Red Sox would have been hoping for a sweep. At the very least they would have been hoping to win the series 2-1. Instead, they lost the series and are now left heading to Tampa in a really tough situation. These next 14 days will shape the Red Sox season, be it for better or worse.

7/22 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Jalen Beeks (L) 7:00 pm NESN

7/23 Chris Sale vs. Yonny Chirinos (R) 7:05 pm NESN

7/24 David Price vs. Charlie Morton (R) 12:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

All eyes will be firmly on Price after his mini-implosion against the Orioles (4 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR, 4K). In that matchup, he was up against the extremely impressive John Means, and he wilted under the spotlight. Well, that spotlight only gets brighter in this outing as he goes up against the even more impressive Charlie Morton. With an 11-3 record and a 2.61 ERA, Morton is firmly in Cy Young contention.

For his part, Morton is also coming into this game off the back of a tough outing. He took his third loss in his last seven starts against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, the rest of the season has been, for the most part, really good. Out of 21 starts, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 18 of those starts. He had two mixed outings against the Red Sox earlier this season. In Boston, he shut them out through six innings, but in Tampa, he allowed five earned runs in six innings. The Red Sox will be hoping for a repeat of that home performance this time around.

Jalen Beeks should be a familiar face to the Red Sox organization. Having spent the best part of five years in the organisation they should know all about him. This will be just his second major league start, having been a starter throughout the minors, but transitioning to a relief role in 2018. This season he has a 2.78 ERA, with 56 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. This season he has gone three or more innings 15 times, over four on six occasions, as long as 6 2/3 on one occasion.

HITTERS

The Rays rank 15th in the league this season in batting average, 12th in OBP, 19th in slugging and 17th in runs scored and home runs. Interestingly they have been slightly better on the road, ranking 17th in batting average, 18th in OBP and home runs, 22 in home runs and 23rd in slugging. This is the best place to pitch against the Rays, and with the Rays coming to Fenway next week the Red Sox need to take advantage.

The Red Sox have been marginally better hitters at home, but it the change is fairly negligible. However, against the Rays they have been somewhat of a disaster this season. In nine games they are hitting .212, with a .345 slugging percentage, eight home runs and 90 strikeouts in 63 innings.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The Red Sox once again have three lefties on the mound. The Rays are middle of the league against left-handed pitching, so the Red Sox will be hoping for a successful series. Right now these three pitchers are the best bet the Red Sox have for a playoff series. They also need these three guys to provide the majority of their wins in the coming months. This series is going to tell us a lot about the direction of this team.

Hitting: Let’s take a look at who are the best Red Sox hitters on the road this season. Rafael Devers has 14 of his 20 home runs on the road, while hitting .322 and striking out just 37 times in 205 AB. J.D. Martinez is hitting .301 with nine home runs, and Brock Holt is hitting .328 but with just one home run. In contrast, Jackie Bradley Jr. is hitting a woeful .202 on the road, but does have six of his 11 home runs away from Fenway Park.

EXPECTATIONS

The hope was that the Red Sox would be coming into this series with momentum. Instead, they are coming in off the back of a humiliating loss to one of the worst teams in the Majors. There are not many worse ways to head into a 14 game gauntlet against your two biggest divisional rivals.

It is not an understatement to say that the next fortnight is make or break. At the end of this not only could the Red Sox be out of the divisional race, but they could be in an uphill struggle for the wildcard spots as well. This series is one the Red Sox really need at least two wins from, and one of those wins will need to come off either Charlie Morton or Yonny Chirinos. It will be hard but the Red Sox are defending World Champions and now is the time to show it.

RED SOX – ORIOLES SERIES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox took care of business against the Toronto Blue Jays. A hiccup in game two of the series cost them a series sweep. Now the Red Sox travel to Baltimore for a three-game series in which they will want to keep up the momentum. That momentum is crucial heading into 14 games against their biggest rivals for the division: the Rays and Yankees.

7/19 David Price vs. John Means (L) 7:05 pm NESN

7/20 Rick Porcello vs. Tom Eshelman (R) 7:05 pm NESN

7/21 Andrew Cashner vs. Asher Wojciechowski (R) 1:05 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Cashner will return to the place where he has had plenty of success this season. The right-handed pitcher has a 3.49 ERA in six starts and 36 1/3 innings. In addition, he is 4-0 in those six starts at Camden Yards, and will be looking to add to that for his new team in this series.

John Means has been absolutely incredible this season, with a 2.94 ERA. His performances at home have been slightly better than on the road. In Camden Yards he has a 2.50 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings. He had a rough time last time out against the Rays, allowing six earned runs, with three home runs. That was as many home runs in one start as he had allowed in the 44 1/3 innings he had pitched at home. Getting a win against Means is not going to be easy.

Both Eshelman and Wojciechowski come into their starts with a relative lack of major league experience this season. Eshelman will be making just his third start, having allowed six earned runs across 10 2/3 innings in two starts against the Rays. After succeeding at Triple-A for the Phillies (2.77 ERA) he has struggled at the same level with the Orioles (4.44 ERA). Wojciechowski will be making the 14th start of his career, with those spread across three major league seasons stretching back to 2015. His 6.49 ERA suggests the Red Sox should be able to have success.

HITTERS

The Orioles have not been great with the bat this season, but their numbers have been slightly better at home. They have scored 12 more runs, have a .009 better batting average, a .031 better ISO, and a wRC+ that is 12 points higher at home than on the road. The numbers are still not incredible, but they are better, and the Red Sox need to be wary that this team can be frisky at home.

We have mentioned the struggles of Andrew Benintendi at times this season, but he has been incredible in one area with the bat. With runners in scoring position, Benintendi has a .342 batting average, with 32 RBI. If we look at clutch situations, such as bases loaded and RISP with two outs, things get even better. In bases-loaded situations he is hitting .625 with 12 RBI in nine PA. With RISP and two outs, he has a .395 batting average and 22 RBI. For a player who is not firing on all cylinders, it is fantastic to see that in clutch situations he is coming up big.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: So Cashner’s first start as a Red Sox did not go to plan, allowing five earned runs in five innings against the Blue Jays. The Red Sox will be hoping that a return to his old stomping ground can get him firing on all cylinders. They will also be hoping to get Rick Porcello‘s form turned around, as they will need their two right-handed starters firing in the second half.

Hitting: The game with Means on the mound will be tough, but the Red Sox will be hoping to cash in in games two and three. I have highlighted their numbers against right-handed pitchers numerous times this season, and they will need to perform to full expectations against them, as what they might get out of Porcello and Cashner is an unknown at this point.

EXPECTATIONS

The Blue Jays series victory has ensured the Red Sox remain within 10 games of the Yankees, but with no slowing up in New York, they need to keep the pedal to the floor. With 14 games coming up against their biggest rivals in the AL East they need a big series to ensure momentum is behind them.

If the Orioles cause major problems for the Red Sox then they probably do not deserve to be remaining in contention. The Red Sox will be hoping to give Means more headaches in the first game of the series, before going hard after the two righties in the last two games. Hopefully, this can be a series sweep for the Red Sox.

RED SOX – BLUE JAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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Things did not go exactly to plan for the Red Sox in the series against the Dodgers. They got off to a great start winning the first game, but could not pull out the extra innings game on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Losing to the Dodgers was a massive blow, but not exactly an unexpected one. Avoiding being swept was extremely important, and the fight they demonstrated against arguably the best team in baseball will carry them into the second half feeling good.

7/15 Rick Porcello vs. Trent Thornton (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/16 Andrew Cashner vs. TBD 7:10 pm NESN

7/17 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Aaron Sanchez (R) 7:10 pm ESPN

7/18 Chris Sale vs. Clayton Richard (L) 1:05 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The obvious name to look at here is brand new Red Sox Andrew Cashner. He comes to the Sox with a more than respectable 3.85 ERA this season. However, a large part of that has been his impressive 3.47 ERA at home in Camden Yards. Can he now bring that home form to the Red Sox? In his career, he has only started two games in Fenway Park, allowing eight earned runs in 10 innings pitched. Not exactly a favorable record, but given the small sample size, it is not a disaster situation either.

It bears repeating just how Trent Thornton has been on the road this season. His 3.60 road ERA is only that high because the Yankees took a liking to him in his last road start. Last time in Fenway he went toe-to-toe with Sale and came away with a ton of respect. This time against Porcello he could be the pitcher who gets this series off to a terrible start for the Red Sox.

Sanchez’s road form is in stark contrast to that of Thornton. Sanchez has a 6.79 ERA on the road this season, with a .306 batting average against. Richard has also struggled on the road, with a 5.29 ERA. Finishing the series against those two pitchers should be a great way for the Red Sox to round out the series.

HITTERS

The Red Sox have struggled to get any production this season out of the right side of their infield. The first base position has hit just .235, and second base just .252. Combined they have accounted for just 28 home runs. In contrast, the left side of the infield has hit over .300 at both positions, with 37 home runs. Given that first base is supposed to be one of your better hitters, that is somewhat of a disaster for the Red Sox.

The Blue Jays hitting has gradually improved throughout the season. In March/April and May, they hit under .240 with a combined 68 home runs. In June and the first half of July, they’re hitting a combined .250 with 60 home runs. The Red Sox pitching needs to be aware that the Blue Jays offense is a different one from earlier in the year and treat it as such.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: All eyes will be on Andrew Cashner. He has been acquired with a view to providing some right-handed depth in their rotation. The Red Sox will be keen to see how he starts his time with them, having lacked quality right-handed options due to the injuries to Nathan Eovaldi and the poor performances of Porcello.

Hitting: I mentioned the struggles of the right side of the Red Sox infield above. The Red Sox will be hoping to get a boost later in the year when their platoon of Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce return. That will allow them to use Michael Chavis as a utility man on the infield. Chavis is another hitter they would like to see get his mojo back in this series, having registered a solitary hit in the Dodgers series.

EXPECTATIONS

The Dodgers loss will hurt, but it will was not entirely unexpected. The Red Sox will be aware these are the sort of series they have to win 3-1 or 4-0 if they are to stay in the race for the division.

There will be challenges in this series. Thornton is tough, and panic could set in if he leads the Blue Jays to a first-game victory. However, with a weak back end for the Blue Jays pitching in this series, the Red Sox will likely have a strong series against a mediocre Blue Jays team.

RED SOX – DODGERS SERIES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox could not have gone into the All-Star break any better. Five wins outs of six against the Blue Jays and Tigers, including a sweep of the Tigers in Detroit. Now the MLB leading Dodgers are coming to town for a three-game series. Can the Red Sox get the second half off to the best possible start?

7/5Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Kenta Maeda (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/6 David Price vs. Ross Stripling (R) 7:15 pm NESN

7/7 Chris Sale vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (R) 7:00 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Things had been looking up for Sale, but they’ve gone a little awry in the last couple of weeks. His last two starts have seen 10 earned runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings. The worse news is that those starts were against the hardly fearsome offenses of the Blue Jays and White Sox. Now against the very good Los Angeles Dodgers he is going to need to be at his very best.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been simply incredible this year. He has a 1.73 ERA on the season, with just 21 earned runs allowed. Even more impressive is that seven of those earned runs came in one start in Colorado, leaving just 14 earned runs in 105 innings. Outside of that one start in Colorado, he has a 1.20 ERA this season.

While both Maeda and Stripling have had solid seasons, they have had their issues on the road. 27 of the 40 earned runs allowed by Maeda have come away from Los Angeles, giving him a 5.52 ERA. As for Stripling, he has been marginally better with a 4.28 ERA on the road. Those numbers present a real opportunity for the Red Sox.

HITTERS

I have mentioned numerous times in this article about the Red Sox record against right-handed pitchers, but it bears repeating here. They rank first in the majors in batting average and OBP, second in BB% and OPS, and 10th in ISO. When you have three quality right-handed pitchers on the mound, these impressive numbers become even more important than ever.

It has worked out well for the Red Sox that they have three left-handed starters lined up for this one. The Dodgers rank among the top-five in most hitting categories. However, when left-handed pitchers are on the mound their numbers take a little dip. They rank 11th in batting average, 10th in slugging, and 12th is ISO when lefties are on the mound. Still good, but not as good as when righties are facing them.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: All eyes will be on the Sale and Ryu game. However for the Red Sox, their focus needs to be on the first two games more than ever. No matter how good Sale is they have to assume that Ryu will win that game. That could pile the pressure on Rodriguez and Sale. It could also relieve the pressure on Sale and we may see his best outing of the season. Either way, this is going to be a fascinating series.

Hitting: After facing a relatively weak pitching group in both the Blue Jays and Tigers, things are about to get very different. All three of the pitchers they face in this series have an ERA under four. The Red Sox hitters are going to have to be at their World Series-winning best to come away from this series with a couple of wins.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox did exactly what they needed to do before the All-Star break, giving them a launchpad for the second half of the season. They are not in the box seat, but they are also not completely out of the picture either.

This series against the Dodgers presents a real opportunity for the Red Sox to lay down a marker. Take two or three of these games off the Dodgers and the Yankees and Rays might just sit up and take notice. It may sound easy on paper, but this will be a tough series for the Red Sox, and they will need to be at their very best to get anything from it.

RED SOX – TIGERS SERIES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox just about snuck out of Toronto with two wins from their three-game series. Now they turn their attentions to their visit to Detroit, in their final series before the All-Star break.

7/5 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Gregory Soto (L) 7:10 pm NESN

7/6 Rick Porcello vs. Jordan Zimmermann (R) 4:10 pm NESN

7/7 David Price vs. TBD 1:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

In order to try and make a positive out of what happened with Rick Porcello in London; at least he is well-rested. Porcello allowed six runs in the first innings on Saturday and did not make it out of the first inning. However, he only threw 33 pitches, so will come into this game in a slightly different situation to what the Red Sox will have expected. However, in his career he has been better in the second half of the season, starting with July. In June he has a career 5.06 ERA, but in July that drops by over a run to 3.97 in July. Let’s hope that trend continues in this series.

Jordan Zimmermann’s season has been a weird one. In his first two starts of the season, he allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings, with the Tigers picking up wins in both. Since then he has allowed 26 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings, and the Tigers have not won a single one of those games.

Gregory Soto has not had a great season, with an 8.83 ERA. He has allowed less than three earned runs in just two of his six outings this season. That comes despite having never gone more than four innings in any single outing. The Tigers have won just two games that Soto has featured in, but he has only figured in the result twice, taking two losses in his first two appearances.

HITTERS

The Red Sox offense has been slowly heating up in the last month. Over the last 28 days, they are hitting .294 with a .502 slugging percentage and a .857 OPS. In the last 14 days that rises to .315/.538/.905, and in the last seven days it has risen to .332/.596/.971. Now they can look to finish the first half on a high.

Detroit has really struggled at home this season, with a league-worst 68 wRC+, 3rd worst .229 batting average and .130 ISO, as well as a 4th worst 25.2 K%. They have hit just a paltry 26 home runs this season, and scored just 134 runs in Detroit. Both of those numbers are the worst in the league, below even the Marlins and Giants.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: This combination is likely to be the three that make up the middle of any playoff series if the Red Sox get to that point. If they are going to have any chance in a playoff series they need to dominate teams like the Tigers.

Hitting: Since the 14th of June the Red Sox have scored five or more runs in a game in 10 of their 14 games. The problem has been that they have only won six of those 10 games. This offense needs to continue to hit through their pitching woes, and this series offers the perfect opportunity to pile up the runs again.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox won two games in their last series and gained precisely zero ground on the Yankees, who also took two of their three games. The Red Sox need to be perfect against these bottom-dwelling teams if they are to stay in touch with the Yankees. Ultimately, any shot they have at the division will come down to beating the Yankees in future series. However, winning these series convincingly will help take the pressure off those series.

The first two games should be games where the Red Sox hitters can cash in big-time against pitchers who are not having a great time of it. If they go into Sunday’s game having won the first two they will have their best pitcher of the three on the mound to close out the series. Win all three of these and things will look a lot rosier with the Red Sox potentially inside double-digit games behind the Yankees.

RED SOX – BLUE JAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox are nothing if not frustratingly consistent, even when playing a “home” game in a different country. The Red Sox form at home has been a consistent issue all season, as they currently have a 20-22 record in designated home games. In terms of true home games that is a 20-20 record, but .500 is not good enough at home. However, their road performances have been strong since a tough start, and now they get six road games to try and rebound from being swept by the Yankees in London.

7/2 David Price vs. Trent Thornton (R) 7:07 pm NESN

7/3 Chris Sale vs. Sean Reid-Foley (R) 7:07 pm NESN

7/4 Rick Porcello vs. Marcus Stroman (R) 7:07 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

In order to try and make a positive out of what happened with Rick Porcello in London at least, he is well-rested. Porcello allowed six runs in the first innings on Saturday, and did did not make it out of the first inning. However, he only threw 33 pitches, so will come into this game in a slightly different situation to what the Red Sox will have expected. A negative for Porcello is that he has a 5.17 ERA in 78 1/3 innings in Rogers Center. However, in his career he has been better in the second half of the season, starting with July, In June he has a career 5.06 ERA, but in July that drops by over a run to 3.97 in July. Let’s hope that trend continues in this series.

When the Blue Jays came to Fenway I raved about Thornton’s road ERA, and he caused the Red Sox problems. Now the tables are turned, as Thornton has real issues pitching in Toronto. In 31 innings at home, he has allowed 22 earned runs, nine home runs, and a .528 slugging percentage.

2019 has not been kind to Sean Reid-Foley. The 49th overall pick in 2014 has struggled both in the majors and at Triple-A. In two starts and one relief appearance in the majors, he has managed 9 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs, two home runs, and walking six. At Triple-A his numbers are arguably worse, with 45 earned runs allowed in 69 innings, walking a whopping 51 hitters. Between Reid-Foley and Thornton, the Red Sox should be disappointed if they don’t leave Toronto with two wins from those two games.

HITTERS

The Red Sox are absolutely raking against right-handed pitchers. They rank first in the majors in batting average BABIP and OBP, as well as second in BB% and joint third in wRC+. Three righties in this series should be a good sign for the Red Sox.

Toronto has struggled massively at home this season. They rank dead last in batting average, OBP and BABIP, as well as bottom-10 in wRC+, K%, and BB%. However, they have had success hitting for power, ranking 13th in ISO. However, that ISO falls to the 12th worst in the league when you look at their numbers against left-handed pitching. This series could be a fantastic opportunity for the Red Sox to exploit the Blue Jay weaknesses.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The extra day’s rest is going to be a great relief to the Red Sox after this weekend. Saturday saw the bullpen stretched to its extremes, and thankfully Eduardo Rodriguez did a solid job on Sunday to spare further issues. That performance from Rodriguez, and the Monday off, plus two days off before the London Series, should mean that this bullpen is not in dire straights come Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the Red Sox coaching staff will be hoping Price and Sale can put together plenty of innings this weekend, so they can keep their bullpen out of the firing line as long as possible.

Hitting: You couldn’t ask for much more from the Red Sox hitters in the London Series. 21 runs in two games should yield at least one win. Sadly it did not, and now the hitters need to keep that form up in the second half of the season.

An interesting statistic for the Red Sox has been their inability to get hits from the leadoff hitter in the first innings. Four hitters have been the first hitter of the game, and all four have a batting average below .200. In fact, the first spot in the lineup has been a nightmare, with a combined .230 batting average from that spot. When you are not getting off to good starts in games and your top of the order hitter is struggling it puts a lot of pressure on your team. The Red Sox need to get someone hitting consistently in that one spot in the second half of the season.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox are now 11 games behind the Yankees in the race for the division, as well as being two games behind the Rangers for the wildcard spot. The Red Sox need to start turning this around or they are going to find it tough come September. Six games in Toronto and Detroit before the All-Star break is their opportunity and they must capitalize.

Coming out of this series and these six games without series wins, and at least four of the six games. Realistically facing two of the worst four teams in the American League, the Red Sox should be looking at winning five or even all six of these. Do that and the All-Star break will feel a lot more comfortable. There is still plenty of time in this season, but they have to win games against bad teams or they are going to be in trouble.

RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

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Once again the Red Sox failed to make full advantage of a home series, dropping the final game. They still won the series 2-1 but of all people, Chris Sale cost them the final game. The momentum going into this series in London would be much greater if they had avoided that upset. This upcoming series is a celebration of baseball. It is is an advert for the sport in another country (my country), but it is also a competitive regular season series, and business needs to be taken care of.

6/29 Rick Porcello vs. Masahiro Tanaka (R) 1:10 pm NESN

6/30 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. J.A. Happ (L) 10:10 am NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Both Porcello and Rodriguez have solid numbers in their careers against the Yankees, with both having ERAs under four. Porcello has started 23 times against the Yankees, throwing 146 1/3 innings. However, in his only start against them this season he allowed five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, so will be looking to bounce back. Rodriguez has a 3.89 ERA in 12 starts and two relief appearances, spanning 69 1/3 innings. However, he allowed 13 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings against them last season. The Yankees have a really good lineup, and the Red Sox will need these two to be at the top of their game.

Tanaka has been good this season, with a season-long 3.21 ERA. His ERA is a fraction worse on the road, but at 3.89 it is not a significant difference. Last season Tanaka was roughed up by the Red Sox, allowing 16 earned runs in 19 innings.

J.A. Happ loves facing the Red Sox, as he has just a 3.00 ERA against them in his career. In fact, of the 43 runs he has allowed against the Red Sox in his career, 10 of those came in the first two years of his career, back in 2009 and 2010. In the last four seasons, he has allowed 19 earned runs in 77 innings, with 64 strikeouts and 25 walks.

HITTERS

The Yankees have really struggled against left-handed pitchers this season. They have a .235 batting average and a .398 slugging percentage against lefties, both of which rank in the bottom third of the league. However, against right-handed pitchers they have had much more success. They rank second in the league in batting average at .271, and third in slugging at .479. Frustratingly, the Red Sox have their only right-handed pitcher on the mound in this series, and they head to London with just one left-handed reliever.

The Red Sox have also been slightly better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers. They rank 16th in slugging and 20th in batting average against lefties, but first in batting average and fifth in slugging against right-handed pitchers. Those two sets of numbers suggest we could be in for a high scoring game Saturday, before a tighter contest potentially on Sunday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: A subplot to this series will be the battle of the bullpens. The Yankees bullpen is more glamorous than the Red Sox when it comes to names and salary. However, the Red Sox have marginally been outperforming their counterparts, with a 3.97 ERA compared to a 4.01 ERA for the Yankees.

Hitting: The Red Sox lineup has been left a little behind by the Yankees this season. They rank fairly close in runs, with the Yankees having just a five-run edge. However, the Yankees have hit 19 more home runs and rank fourth in slugging percentage compared to the Red Sox 10th. If Saturday does become a slugfest, these could be numbers that suggest the Red Sox might find themselves marginally outgunned.

EXPECTATIONS

Hopefully this series is going to be a lot of fun in London, and hopefully, two wins will make it even more fun. The weather in London is expected to be roasting hot on Saturday, and while not as hot Sunday, still toasty. With no real knowledge of how the park will fare in terms of its slant towards hitters or pitchers, that weather could be enough to give offenses a boost.

The Red Sox need these wins badly. They currently sit nine games back on the Yankees, but two wins here would be huge. If the Red Sox can head back to America with two wins under their belts then they could have the perfect momentum boost to launch their challenge in the second half. Hopefully, their experience of playing the early start on Patriot Day will serve them well for the 10 am East Coast start time on Sunday.