Author Archives: @benrolfe15

RED SOX – WHITE SOX SERIES PREVIEW

Every time things are looking up for this team, they go and shoot themselves in the foot. The series against the Blue Jays wasn’t just bad, it was nearly a disaster. Only a late rally in Game 1 of the Blue Jays series prevented this from being a home sweep. Now with an 18-19 record at home, the Red Sox welcome a White Sox team containing one of the hottest young starters in the majors right now.

6/24 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Lucas Giolito (R) 7:10 pm NESN

6/22 David Price vs. TBD 7:10 pm NESN

6/23 Chris Sale vs. Reynaldo Lopez (R) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The series loss to the Blue Jays is on the pitchers. Sale gave up four runs in five innings, the bullpen allowed all eight in Game 2, and Porcello allowed five in six innings on Sunday. Yes, the offense failed to fire on Sunday, but they scored 14 runs in the first two games. To have seven runs scored, the starter to blank an opponent over five innings and lose is a disaster. In the same vein, Porcello simply cannot allow five runs to be scored and expect to win. 15 runs in three games should have been enough to win this series. The fact it was not lies with the rotation and the bullpen. Now they need to bounce back.

Giolito is reminding everyone in baseball why he was so highly touted as a prospect. The 24-year old pitcher has been superb in 2019, with a 2.74 ERA entering this start. In 85 1/3 innings, he has struck out a whopping 105 batters while walking 29. To put that into context; his 2019 K/9 is 10.97 and his BB/9 is 3.06, compared to career numbers prior to this season of 6.4 (K/9) and 4.3 (BB/9). It gets worse when you look at his splits, as he performs better on the road than at home, with a 2.49 ERA and a .180 batting average against away from home.

The counter to the good performances of Giolito is the struggles of Lopez. Another highly touted prospect, Lopez has a 6.23 ERA this season in 86 2/3 innings. Lopez’s struggles have come in the form of the home run, allowing 2.18 HR/9. He has been slightly better at preventing home runs on the road, but other numbers have been worse. His batting average against on the road is .308, and opponents slugging percentage is up at .573.

HITTERS

The Red Sox will be seeing two right-handed pitchers in this series, which is a promising situation for their offense. Against righties, the Red Sox have the highest batting average in the majors, the fourth highest wOBA, and the seventh best strikeout rate. Home runs have not been free-flowing, as they rank 13th in that category. However, they rank second in the majors in runs scored against righties, with 321 runs scored.

In stark contrast, the White Sox will find three left-handed pitchers waiting for them in Boston. The White Sox have seen the seventh-least amount of PA this season against lefties, and their success has been mixed. On one hand they rank ninth in the majors in batting average against lefties, but equally, they rank 26th when it comes to ISO, and 20th in slugging percentage.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: Three lefties in one series is certainly interesting. In a way, it is a bad time for the Red Sox not to need their fifth starter, due to the trip to London, because Johnson looked good last time out. However, they now get to throw their best four pitchers at opponents for the next nine games. Most teams would kill to not need their fifth starter for the next two weeks. Now the Red Sox need their starters to step up and take advantage.

Hitting: This is the series where Mookie Betts is going to turn his form around. The Red Sox talisman has struggled in June, with a .213 batting average. However, with two righties lined up, and potentially a third, he has a chance to get right. Betts’ has a .280 batting average, and has hit 11 of his 12 home runs, off righties. The same goes for Devers, who is having his worst month, but has 10 of his 12 home runs off right-handed pitchers. Before a big series in London, the Red Sox need these two to get themselves back in form.

EXPECTATIONS

Right now at Fenway Park nothing is a given for the Red Sox. They have not won a home series in June, going 4-7. In fact, they have not won a series at home in over a month, with their last victorious series coming when the Colorado Rockies visited. At least one game in this series will be tough to win, with Lucas Giolito on the mound, but Chris Sale against Reynaldo Lopez should be a very winnable game.

The Red Sox are travelling to London in four days time to take on the Yankees. If they do not win two games in this series, there is a very real chance they could head to London down double-digits on their biggest rivals for this division. If they can take a game off Lucas Giolito Monday, then a series sweep, and the confidence that comes with it, will be there for the taking.

RED SOX – BLUE JAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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If the Red Sox had gone into Minnesota and came away with one win it would have been perfectly fine. However, to go up against the Twins and win two of three puts the Red Sox in a great position for their upcoming six-game homestand.

6/21 Chris Sale vs. Trent Thornton (R) 7:10 pm NESN

6/22 Brian Johnson vs. TBD 4:05 pm NESN

6/23 Rick Porcello vs. Marcus Stroman (R) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Chris Sale’s 10 strikeouts in his last outing, means that he has struck out 10 or more in eight of his last 10 starts. Additionally, his ERA is down to a season-low 3.49. His average fastball velocity is now sitting just below 95 mph. It is still on the lower end of what we have seen earlier in his career, but it is better than what we saw at the start of the season.

Trent Thornton has been a somewhat frustrating pitcher this season. His season-long 4.36 ERA is solid, but his home form has been poor. His road ERA sits a 2.39, but his home ERA is 6.39, with 9-of-11 home runs he has allowed this season coming at home, giving him a .528 slugging percentage allowed in the Rodgers Centre. The Red Sox hope to reverse that trend as he comes to Fenway in the first game of the series.

Marcus Stroman’s numbers have been much more even, with his home and road ERA being within .02 (3.22 vs. 3.24) of one another. However, all nine of his home runs allowed have come in his home starts. Five of those home runs have come in his last four home starts, and all nine coming in his last six home starts. In addition, seven of those home runs have come against left-handed hitters. Much like with Thornton, the Red Sox are looking to change that form and deal Stroman some road home runs in this start.

HITTERS

The Toronto Blue Jays have a hard at the plate this season, but at home they have really struggled. They rank dead last in the majors in batting average with a terrible .205 line, .16 lower than the next worst team. They also rank dead last in wRC+, as well as bottom five in slugging percentage and wOBA.

The Red Sox were carried by their pitchers in the Twins series, as their offense scored just 14 runs in 35 innings. Those 35 innings are what you might expect from a four-game series, but this was just a three-game series, as Tuesday’s game went to 17 innings before Max Kepler won it for the Twins. Interestingly just two of the Red Sox 14 runs were scored by means of a home run. That is a promising sign as it means the Red Sox are able to string together plays to score runners in a tough series with a good team.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: Seemingly every series I discuss the fifth starter situation, and this will be no different. With Brian Johnson on the mound against one of the worst offensive teams in the league, the Red Sox will be desperate to see him repeat his success from last time out. He only went three innings against the Orioles, but if he can stretch that out in this start, then he could cement himself as the short-term fifth starter in the rotation.

Hitting: The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight, scoring 53 runs in that time. An interesting subplot on this streak has been the form of Mookie Betts in June. Betts is hitting just .219 in 90 PAs this month, thanks in large part to a .224 BABIP. Another struggler this month has been Michael Chavis who has struck out in 31-of-74 PA in June. The Red Sox will be hoping those two can use this series to get them back in some form ready for the showdown with the Yankees in London at the end of the month.

EXPECTATIONS

In the space of a few days the feelings around this team have changed. Suddenly this team has gone from a road underdog just looking to stay hot, to a favorite expected to win a series at home. That brings a completely different pressure, especially for a team with just a .500 record at home.

Just a handful of days ago I was writing how we just wanted to not get swept in a series. Now the feeling is that anything less than a sweep against the Blue Jays might be disappointing. The Blue Jays have won just 26 games this season, and they are exactly the team the Red Sox need to beat well f they are to get back in the AL East race.

RED SOX – TWINS SERIES PREVIEW

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As we expected the Red Sox enjoyed their trip to Baltimore. The results in Baltimore ensured that whatever happens in this series, they will still be above .500 when they return home. Now they head into Minnesota to face the team with the second best record in the American League.

6/10 Rick Porcello vs. Jose Berrios (R) 8:10 pm NESN

6/11 David Price vs. Michael Pineda (R) 8:10 pm NESN

6/12 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Kyle Gibson (L) 8:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

I raved about the home ERAs of some of the Red Sox pitchers in a previous preview. Well, the counter to that is some pretty ugly road ERAs, especially for Porcello and Rodriguez. Porcello is the worst of the group, with a 6.37 road ERA, but Rodriguez is close behind with 5.23 road ERA. That is just a small problem when you are heading to face the highest scoring team in the major leagues.

Things have come together for Berrios and Gibson this season. Both have ERA’s below four, and below their career averages. Their numbers have largely been driven by their performances in Minnesota. Berrios has a 2.53 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. As for Gibson, he is even better at home, with 2.70 ERA and an impressive 0.79 WHIP.

The 2019 season has not been as rosy for Pineda, who had an up and down start but has had a relatively consistent spell recently. His season-long ERA is 5.04, and at home, it is up to 5.20. However, the consistency he has shown recently has been impressive. Six of his last seven starts have seen him allow three earned runs. The one exception was last time out against Seattle, when he allowed just one earned run. He will be hoping to take that good run into this start against Boston.

HITTERS

The Twins have some things to shout about offensively this season. They lead the majors in runs, home runs, ISO, batting average and slugging. That is a pretty amazing combination and helps to explain just why they are in control of the AL Central. However, their home form is not that great in comparison. They rank seventh in home runs, 11th in runs and 13th in batting average. If there is a place to face them, then actually, in Minnesota is not a bad option.

The Red Sox started the season with an 11-game road trip. They went 3-8 in that nightmare season opening. Since then things have improved somewhat. The Red Sox are now 22-17 on the road. That is a remarkable turnaround, with a 19-9 record in their last 28 road games. Their offense has been a big part of that, as they rank fifth in runs and home runs, and sixth in batting average away from Fenway. Right now the Red Sox are a team of road warriors

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The Baltimore series may have given the Red Sox an option for their fifth starter. However, now they need to sort out starters three and four. As things stand, the Red Sox are looking at a Wildcard berth. And with that, they will need to win on the road to go deep in the playoffs. They cannot afford for two of their starters to be a liability on the road. What better time to prove they have it worked out than in the home of one of the best teams in the American League.

Hitting: After struggling to hit home runs again the Rangers the Red Sox put it right in the first game of the series. In that game alone they hit six home runs. Unfortunately, they followed that up with just one home run in the next two games combined. However, scoring seven runs in one of those games is just as promising as a game full of power. Being able to move men over and drive them in is going to be huge through the rest of the season, and the Sox cannot just rely on the long ball.

EXPECTATIONS

Before the season you would have said it would be disappointing if the Red Sox did not come out of Minnesota with two wins from this series. Now? Frankly, you would be happy just to get away from the Twins with a single win, and your dignity left intact. The sweep in Baltimore has bought the Red Sox some grace, by ensuring that no matter what they will be above .500 when they take on Toronto.

The Twins are a very good baseball team, but their slight Achilles heel has been their home form. Unfortunately, two of the Red Sox pitchers also have a serious issue on the road this season. Right now getting out of here with a single win will be more than good enough. Then they can hope to put the pedal down against the Blue Jays and White Sox in the following week. However, if Price can get the best of Pineda, then just one of Porcello and Rodriguez need a good start to make this a successful series. It will be tough, but imagine the confidence if they do win two or more in this series!

RED SOX – ORIOLES SERIES PREVIEW

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Two games into the series with the Rangers and it looked like disaster was about to strike. The Rangers came into Fenway and took the first two games of the series against the odds. However, the Red Sox pulled themselves together and managed to come out on top in the final two games. Now they head to Baltimore hoping to have another “get right” road series.

6/10 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. TBD 7:05 pm NESN

6/11 Chris Sale vs. Dylan Bundy (R) 4:05 pm NESN

6/12 TBD vs. John Means (L) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Chris Sales numbers in his last two outings are simply incredible. The veteran left-hander has thrown a total of 16 innings without allowing an earned run to score. What makes it even more impressive is that in those two starts he has allowed a total of six hits and one walk, while striking out 22. He has now struck out 10 or more in eight of his last 10 starts, and has given up three or more earned runs in just two of those 10 starts.

John Means has taken the majors by storm this season. The left-handed pitcher has a 2.60 ERA in his 15 games, including 11 starts. However, he has been especially good at home, allowing just six earned runs in 34 1/3 innings. Additionally, he has also had some success against the Red Sox, allowing just two runs to score in 12 innings.

The Red Sox can feel fairly comfortable in knowing what they will get when they face Dylan Bundy on Saturday. The veteran right-handed pitcher has a 4.50 ERA in 70 innings this season. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed between 2-and-4 earned runs in eight of those, averaging around one home run allowed per outing. However, for the Orioles, his performances are significantly improved since the start of the season. As of April 16th, he had a 7.79 ERA, which he has now managed to get down to 4.50 in the subsequent 10 starts.

HITTERS

Camden Yards should offer a chance for the Red Sox offense to have some fun. According to ESPN’s park factors, Camden Yards ranks third in runs, and fifth in home runs this season. The pitching matchups are not the easiest, especially against John Means, but this is the park for the Red Sox hitters to start hitting their groove.

Despite having the fifth best park for home runs, the Orioles offense ranks just 20th in home runs this season. In fact, scoring runs in general has been hard, as they rank 26th in that category too. Not only should this series be a good chance for the offense to find some rhythm, but the pitchers as well.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: Once again that fifth starter spot is in the limelight. Darwinzon Hernandez and Ryan Weber have both had shots, but neither has stuck. Hector Velazquez and of course Nathan Eovaldi are on the injured list. Both will return before the end of the season, but the Red Sox are not in the luxurious position of being able to afford to give away one out of every five games with their fifth starter. Hopefully, a start against the Orioles can be the kick start someone needs to make the job their own for a little while.

Hitting: Incredibly all seven of the Red Sox runs came via the home run in the final game of their series with the Rangers. The five home runs they scored in that game were even more impressive, given they averaged just one per game in the rest of the series. The long ball has been a struggle for the Red Sox this season, as they rank just 12th in the majors. For a lineup stacked with the likes of J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, and Mitch Moreland, that is extremely disappointing. Hopefully they can add a few more multi-homer games this weekend.

EXPECTATIONS

If the start of the Rangers series was disappointing, the way the Red Sox bounced back was encouraging. It would have been easy to have folded, especially when the Rangers jumped out to a two-run lead in the third game. However, the offense fought back in both game, and they came away with a damage control split series.

Now they need to go and cash in against the Orioles, who are the worst team in the major leagues. The Orioles sit 21-46 with a -133 run differential and having won just three of their last 10. The Red Sox will head to the red hot Minnesota Twins after this series, so it is imperative they at least take two of these three games from the Orioles

RED SOX – RANGERS SERIES PREVIEW

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The weekend series against the Rays was a progress stopper. After sweeping the Royals last week, the Red Sox lost 3-of-4 in Fenway to drop seven games behind the Yankees and Rays in the division. The upcoming week presents another chance to string together some wins, and that starts with the Rangers in Fenway Park.

6/10 Chris Sale vs. Mike Minor (L) 7:10 pm NESN

6/11 TBD vs. Ariel Jurado (R) 7:10 pm NESN

6/12 Rick Porcello vs. Lance Lynn (R) 7:10 pm NESN

6/13 David Price vs. Adrian Sampson (R) 7:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Chris Sale threw a three-hit, 12 strikeout shut out in his last start in Kansas City. However, Sale has actually had most of his struggles at home this season. The left-handed pitcher has a 4.45 ERA in 28 1/3 innings at Fenway, compared to just a 3.49 ERA on the road. In contrast, both Rick Porcello and David Price has far superior numbers at home than on the road. If there was any pitcher of the three to bank on to turn their home form around it would be Sale.

Mike Minor is demonstrating the talent that we all knew he had this season. The veteran left-hander has his career derailed by injuries but has fought hard to get himself back on track. This season he has a career-best 2.55 ERA as a starter, striking out 87 in 81 1/3 innings. He has been slightly been more vulnerable on the road, with a 3.00 ERA, and a .310 wOBA.

The Rangers will be using two pitchers in this series who have served time both out of the rotation and the bullpen. Ariel Jurado has also been extremely good this season, both as a starter and a reliever. As a starter, he has a 3.57 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings. Adrian Sampson has been less impressive as a starter, with a 4.93 ERA, but has struck out 34 in 38 1/3 innings.

HITTERS

On the road, this season the Rangers have generally hit well. They rank in the top-10/15 of most road statistics. They have not had it all their own way, in fact, they rank second last in the majors in strikeouts on the road, with a 27.5 K%. Their road record is also pretty poor when it comes to results, as they sit just 10-18. This series should present plenty of opportunities for the Red Sox pitchers to rack up the K’s.

The Red Sox are coming off a series in which they averaged just 2.25 runs per game. It is going to be extremely hard to win games scoring that few runs, especially when they did not have to face one of the Rays best pitchers in Charlie Morton. However, the Rays do rank best in the majors when it comes to ERA. The Rangers? They rank seventh, allowing nearly two runs more per nine innings pitched.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The Red Sox will be hoping Sale can continue his good form from last time out. They will also be looking for Porcello and Price to continue their good home form this season. However, question marks remain around the other starter in this series and their bullpen. Depth in starting pitching will likely be important later in the season, and they need their bullpen to hold its own if they are to close the gap and push for this division.

Hitting: You know you have had a bad series at the plate when Jackie Bradley Jr. is the only hitter to clear the fences. The positive is that the Red Sox really need something from JBJ’s bat, but there are more issues in that stat than positives, The Rangers rotation can be got at, and that is just the type of staff the Red Sox need to face right now.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox season just rolls from frustration to frustration. Every time it looks as though they are building some momentum, it gets ripped away with a poor series. That is the case once again after this Rays series. The Red Sox are 34-32 and hovering seven games off the division lead.

There is still a lot of time to go. We have only just clicked through the 62-game mark, leaving over 100 games. In the grand scheme of things a seven game deficit when you consider that is nothing. However, the Rangers are a middle of the pack team. If the Red Sox want to be viewed as more than a middle of a pack team they need to send the Rangers packing with a series defeat.

RED SOX – RAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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A get right trip to Kansas City now means that the Red Sox are on a run of four straight wins, putting them just 6.5 games behind the Yankees. They now return home for another tough week against some talented teams. The second-placed Tampa Bay Rays are first up this weekend. This weekend is a crowded one, with a double-header on Saturday, and a matchup with Blake Snell on Sunday.

6/7 Rick Porcello vs. Yonny Chirinos (R) 6:10 pm NESN

6/8 David Price vs. Ryan Yarbrough (L) 1:05 pm NESN

6/8 TBD vs. TBD 6:10 pm NESN

6/1 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Blake Snell (L) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The Rays rotation is so tough to analyze because it is an ever-changing beast. That is further complicated by both teams not knowing who will pitch in the second half of the doubleheader on Saturday. The one sure-fire starter is Blake Snell, who has a 3.66 ERA this season. However, 16 of his 27 earned runs have been given up on the road. Those road starts have been mixed, as he has shut down the Yankees in New York, but was then shelled by both the Royals and Tigers. In fact, 13 of those 16 road earned runs came in those two starts. It will be interesting to see which version of “Road Snell” Boston see this weekend.

As for the other two starters, they are Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough. Both of those pitchers have been used in interesting ways this season. Chirinos has started in 6-of-12 outings this season, and Yabrough in just 2-of-8. Chirinos has had success in both roles, with a 2.78 ERA as a starter and a 3.91 ERA as a reliever. On the other hand, Yarbrough has a 5.65 ERA as a starter and 6.64 as a reliever. Additionally, Yarbough allowed three earned in three innings last time against Boston.

For the three Red Sox starters we know will take the mound, home is where the heart is this season. All three have better ERAs in Fenway Park than on the road. Price leads the pack with a 0.95 home ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. Porcello’s ERA sits at 3.52 with a 1.23 WHIP, and Rodriguez has a 3.56 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. Let’s hope for another strong set of performances from these pitchers this weekend.

HITTERS

On the hitting side, things have been a little more mixed for the Red Sox hitters. The Red Sox average 1.38 HR per game at home, as opposed to 1.47 on the road. However, the Red Sox hit for a superior batting average and slugging percentage at home than on the road. Additionally, the Red Sox offense is heating up. In 30 games in March/April they hit 32 home runs, but hit 51 in May. Their batting average has jumped from .239 in those opening months, to .278 in May, and is at .298 for June so far. It will be hard to increase the overall trend much further, but continuing into a strong summer is much needed for this team.

The Rays have been remarkably consistent this season so far. They hit 35 home runs in March/April and 36 in May. Interestingly they had 12 triples in the first month and just one in May. To start June they have seven home runs with a .270 batting average. The Red Sox will be hoping to slow that down this weekend.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The fourth pitcher this weekend will be very interesting. With the way Nathan Eovaldi opened the season, there is a potential spot up for grabs even after his return. Right now the four of Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Chris Sale looks set. However, a strong performance this weekend could give a pitcher a shot of spending more time in the rotation as the year progresses.

Hitting: In the first five games of June the Red Sox have hit six home runs. Eduardo Nunez, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, and Mookie Betts all have one each, with two for Xander Bogaerts. Any creeping concerns about Andrew Benintendi were put to bed with a four home runs, five steal May. However, after hitting just .259, the Red Sox will be hoping he can get his June kick-started in this series.

EXPECTATIONS

The last week essentially describes the Red Sox season. For the first few days, it was doom-and-gloom, losing the last two to the Indians and the first two to the Yankees. Then things turned around with a four-straight win -streak. Now the Red Sox have a chance to build momentum and potentially move into second place in the division this week.

A four-game home series against the Rays offers an opportunity for the Red Sox. Get this right and there is a chance they could be breathing down the neck of the Yankees, within five games and ready to strike. However, make a mess and they could lose ground on both rivals and be facing a 10-game deficit to the dreaded Yankees. With the Rangers and Orioles next up, the Red Sox have a real chance to reel off a strong run of results and put themselves right back in the division hunt.

RED SOX – ROYALS SERIES PREVIEW

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A tough series in New York topped off a tough couple of weeks for the Red Sox. Thanks to a win on Sunday night they are one game above .500 and kept themselves from falling another two games back. Failing to win the series was not great, but the fightback must start now.

5/30 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Glenn Sparkman (R) 8:00 pm NESN

5/31 Chris Sale vs. Jakob Junis (R) 8:15 pm NESN

6/1 Rick Porcello vs. Danny Duffy (L) 1:15 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The Red Sox starting pitching is largely to blame for the losses in New York over the weekend. Chris Sale and Rick Porcello allowed four and five earned runs respectively, in their two starts. Of course, they are not the only ones to blame. The Red Sox offense scored a combined four runs in those two games. That is just simply not good enough to win a series on the road.

The Royals Game 1 starter will be making just his third start of the season, and just the sixth of his career. Part of his role this season has been as an opener, but in this start, he will be serving more like a conventional starter. However, do not expect to see him go deeper than four or five innings.

As for the other two starters in this series, they have had differing seasons. Jakob Junis has a 5.35 ERA on the season and has been consistently inconsistent. In his last two starts, he has allowed just four earned runs, in the three before that he allowed 13. As for Danny Duffy, he has a 4.05 ERA this season. In his last four home starts he has allowed just nine earned runs to score.

HITTERS

The Royals offense is overall pretty middle of the road, and at home, they have been pretty hit or miss. However, in their last home series against the Yankees, they scored 16 runs in three games. Before that against the Rangers, they scored 16 in the first game alone, but just two in the following two games combined. Overall at home, they rank 23rd in ISO and 18th in SLG.

The Red Sox road offense has been pretty grim itself this season. They rank 15th in ISO, 14th in SLG, 12th in wOBA but 11th in wRC+. In their most recent road trip to New York, it took until the third game for the bats to light up. The Red Sox hit just two home runs in the first two games, and then a further two in the final game. However, they did manage to put eight runs on the Yankees in prime time on Sunday night.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The starting pitching remains an issue. Yes, they did not get much run support in the first two games. However, it is no major shock they won the only game where the starter gave up less than three earned runs. The bullpen has had its issues at times, but the starting pitching has been to blame for a lot of the losses this year. The Red Sox need that pitching to improve if they are to stay in touch for the division. They can start that in this series, by improving on that 14th ranked 4.50 staff ERA on the road.

Hitting: I touched on the road struggles for this offense above. At home, they rank top-10 in many of the major stats, at least from a power point of view. The Red Sox remain sub-.500 (16-17) on the road, and with a 4.50 ERA from their pitchers away from home, their offense needs to be above average. This is now especially important, as the Red Sox are looking less and less likely to have home-field advantage at any point in the playoffs.

EXPECTATIONS

Losing two out of three on the road to anyone is not ideal. Losing two out of three on the road to your fiercest rival, when they are already 9.5 games ahead of you before the series, is a borderline disaster. However, that has happened and now the Red Sox must respond in a big way in the coming week.

After a tough two weeks, things get a little easier for the Red Sox. Just four of their next 14 games are against teams with a plus-.500 record. Now is the time to cash in for the Red Sox, and that starts in the next three days with the Royals. The Red Sox need to win at least three of these four upcoming series, including this one in Kansas City.

RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

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As we expected, the last week has been a massive test for the Red Sox. Three games in Houston were immediately followed by a three game home stand against the Indians. Unfortunately, they have come away from those six games with a 2-4 record. Things are not about to get much easier as they travel to a Yankees team who are 28-9 in their last 37 games.

5/30 Chris Sale vs. J.A. Happ (L) 7:05 pm NESN

5/31 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Domingo German (R) 7:05 pm NESN

6/1 Rick Porcello vs. TBD 7:15 pm NESN

6/2 David Price vs. Masahiro Tanaka (R) 2:10 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

After allowing just an average of three runs per game in Houston, the Red Sox allowed the Indians to score a whopping 26 runs in their three game home stand. Nine of those runs came off stand-in starter Ryan Weber, but the majority of the rest of the damage came off the bullpen. Porcello allowed five runs to score (three earned), with the remaining 12 runs being dealt to the pen. That is a major concern for a Red Sox team who have been fighting to get consistency from their starters for most of this season.

After a rough last two games against the Indians the Yankees need to bounce back immediately. The good news is that Chris Sale has an extremely good history against the Yankees and in Yankee Stadium. In 105 2/3 career innings against the Yankees, he has allowed just 22 earned runs (1.87 ERA). In Yankee Stadium he has a 2.36 ERA in 53 1/3 innings.

Domingo German has been the ace in the pack for the Yankees this season, especially at home, where he has a 1.69 ERA this season. However, he was hit hard by the Kansas City Royals in his last start on the road. German allowed four home runs off him, with seven earned in total. The Red Sox will be hoping they can exploit the same part of his game that the Royal did so capably last time out.

HITTERS

This will be the first time Michael Chavis has faced the Yankees in his young career. The rookie infielder has 10 home runs already this season, to go with a .269 batting average. Chavis has been pretty equal with his home run distribution. Six have come against righties, four against lefties, five at home and five on the road. How he performs in the next four games could give Red Sox fans a glimpse into the character behind the stats.

The Yankees rank sixth in the majors in home runs, seventh in batting average and eighth in slugging percentage. However, they have had some struggles against left-handed pitchers. They rank 21st in batting average, 27th in home runs, and 23rd in slugging percentage. Those are very promising numbers considering the Yankees have three lefties on the mound in this series.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The entire equation has switched in the last couple of weeks. It was no long ago we were looking for better performances from the starters. All four starters going in this series allowed three or less earned runs in their last start. However, as I mentioned above the bullpen struggled massively against the Indians. Bullpen performance can be wildly inconsistent, but many felt it was a real weakness for the Red Sox entering the season. It would be great to see some dominant performances from the bullpen in this series. Especially in a stadium where the Red Sox could have potential playoff games.

Hitting: The Red Sox need a few more hitters to step up, especially with Mitch Moreland hitting the IL. Chavis, Bogaerts, Martinez, Devers and Betts are all pulling their weight. Christian Vazquez has been impressive when left-handed pitchers have been on the mound but then there are some question marks. They will want more out of Benintendi and someone to step up and make the gap left by Moreland their role. Whether that is Steve Pearce or someone else it does not matter, but someone needs to step up and fill the gap.

EXPECTATIONS

After a rough week the Red Sox really need to turn it around in New York. The Yankees are currently on a fantastic run of form, but that will just motivate this Red Sox team even more. The positive for the Red Sox is that the Yankees numbers with left-handed pitchers on the mound is significantly less than stellar.

There is no way to look at this other than the Red Sox need to at worst split this series. The Red Sox are 7.5 games behind the Yankees entering this series. Slipping further behind would not be a disaster, but it would be a problem. This Yankees team is missing some key pieces and is still tearing up the diamond. If their stars come back and click, the Red Sox need to be in touching distance to have a real shot.

RED SOX – ASTROS SERIES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox came away from last weekend disappointed to go down 1-2 to the Astros in Fenway. Now, after a trip to Toronto, they head down to Houston hoping to extract some revenge. Can the Red Sox go into Minute Maid Park and spring a surprise on the best team in baseball right now?

5/24 Chris Sale vs. Wade Miley (L) 8:10 pm NESN

5/25 David Price vs. Brad Peacock (R) 7:15 pm FOX

5/26 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Justin Verlander (R) 2:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The Red Sox three starters in this series have a combined 7-10 record. Rodriguez has four of those wins and three losses. In those wins he averages one earned run allowed per game. In the losses, that number is 6.67. As for Sale, he is 1-5, with all those losses coming in the first six games. Despite allowing just six earned combined in his last three starts, Sale has not managed to get a single decision. Both of Price’s wins have come when he has allowed precisely zero earned runs. If he allows any earned he has either taken the loss or a no-decision.

Justin Verlander is in the form of his life this season. The 36-year old pitcher has a 2.24 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings. To put some context on that Verlander has started 11 games this season. In eight of them he has allowed zero or one earned runs. Even when he struggles the worst he has done is allow for earned runs.

Brad Peacock and Wade Miley have not been as good as Verlander overall. However, pitching in Houston they have been incredible. Peacock has a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 28 innings at home. Miley has 21 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings, but has a ridiculously low 2.31 ERA and a .94 WHIP.

HITTERS

J.D. Martinez started his career in Houston back in 2011. In his three seasons with the Astros he hit just 24 home runs with a .251 batting average. He has hit over 20 home runs in every season since he left Houston. In each of the last three seasons, Martinez has hit at least one home run in Minute Maid Park.

Houston’s offense has been great this season in general, but wow their numbers at home are impressive. As a team they have a .302 batting average, a .529 slugging and a .228 ISO. Leading that charge is George Springer, with his 17 home runs, four stolen bases and .313 batting average. He has seven of those home runs and a .333 batting average at home.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: Arguably this is the Red Sox first choice threesome for a playoff series. A healthy Nathan Eovaldi would also be in the conversation, but right now this would be the ideal three. However, all three have had their struggles this season. With three very good pitchers opposing them, the Red Sox starters need to at least show they can compete with the Astros starters in this series.

Hitting: The key for the offense in this series is just putting pressure on the pitchers. In Minute Maid Park, the highest WHIP among these pitchers is the 1.00 value for Peacock. These pitchers have had their way at home this season, and the Red Sox need to change that. If the offense can string hits together and put these guys in situations they are not used to, then just maybe they can break open a couple of them in their homefield stronghold.

EXPECTATIONS

After the Astros took two games in the series last weekend in Fenway there is perhaps not much optimism for this series. The Astros already seem like a very complete team, while the Red Sox are still figuring themselves out.

The key goal this weekend needs to be competitive. Obviously three wins would be great, but if that does not happen we just need to see the Red Sox be competitive. Even if the series ends with three wins to the Astros, as long as the Red Sox pitchers show promise, and the hitters put some hits together and apply pressure, there will be a lot of positives to take away from this series.

RED SOX – BLUE JAY SERIES PREVIEW

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Only a second half rally in the final game against the Astros prevented the Red Sox being swept in the last series. With a return trip to Houston at the end of the week, the Red Sox will be hoping to pick up momentum with a series against the struggling Blue Jays

5/20 David Price vs. Edwin Jackson (R) 1:07 pm NESN

5/21 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Marcus Stroman (R) 7:07 pm NESN

5/22 Rick Porcello vs. Aaron Sanchez (R) 7:07 pm NESN

5/23 Hector Velazquez vs. Ryan Feierabend (L) 7:07 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

David Price’s return from the injured list is timed perfectly for the Red Sox. His return in the first game of this series gives him a tune up outing before he will be required to pitch in Houston over the weekend. In terms of ERA, Price has been the Red Sox best pitcher this season. In six starts, Price has a 1-2 record, a 3.75 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 36 innings. Additionally, both his FIP and xFIP this season are below his ERA, suggesting he is every bit worth his current numbers.

It has been an interesting season for Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays pitcher had a strong start to the season. In his first six starts Stroman had a 1.43 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings. However, in May he has struggled, with 13 earned runs allowed in just 20 1/3 innings for a 5.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts.

Aaron Sanchez has had a similar start to the season, with a 2.32 ERA in the first month of the season, and a 6.30 ERA in May. Sanchez left his last start against the Chicago White Sox with a blister on his right middle finger. If he does pitch in this game he could be limited in what he can throw and how he can control the ball.

HITTERS

The Red Sox face three right-handed pitchers again in this series. Mitch Moreland has 12 home runs this season with right-handed pitchers on the mound. Mookie Betts (7) is the only other Red Sox hitter with more than five home runs off right-handed pitchers this season. They account for 19 of the 41 home runs the Red Sox have hit with righties on the mound.

2019 has been a rough season for the Blue Jays at the plate. Over the course of the season they rank in the bottom quarter of the league for most statistics. That includes 26th in OBP and home runs, 27th in runs and batting average, and 28th in slugging percentage.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: This series has a lot of interest on the mound for the Red Sox. Firstly, there is the return of Price from injury, who will be looking to get solid innings in in preparation for the trip to Houston. Then the Red Sox hand the ball to their three biggest pitching question marks right now. Rodriguez and Porcello have got their ERAs below five for the first time this season. Thursday’s game sees Velazquez take the ball, after being tagged for five earned by the Astros last time out. The Red Sox will be hoping this group can have a strong outing against a poor Toronto Blue Jays team.

Hitting: It was a slow start to the season for the Red Sox. They ranked 18th in the majors in runs scored, and averaged 4.62 runs per game. In May they rank third with 100 runs at an average of 6.5 runs per game. With the rotation struggling for consistency, the Red Sox need their offense to keep firing.

EXPECTATIONS

Losing at home to the Astros was not ideal by any means. However, the Red Sox were competitive in two of the games, and against the favorites in the AL to make the World Series that is acceptable, if not great. Now they head to the Blue Jays before embarking on a tough stretch of their schedule.

This series is important, not only to win, but to win well. With the Astros, Indians, Yankees and Rays all coming up, the Red Sox need to get some momentum going. The Blue Jays have struggled with the bat this season. Hopefully that means the Red Sox pitchers be able to get some nice outings under their belts. Same goes for the hitters. The Blue Jays have two pitchers on the mound who have struggled in May. Two pitchers will be making just their second starts of the season. This series could be a perfect opportunity for the Red Sox to build some confidence heading into a tough road ahead.