Author Archives: @benrolfe15

RED SOX – ASTROS SERIES PREVIEW

After sweeping Seattle and then splitting the series with the Rockies, the Red Sox are looking at .500 in the rear view mirror. However, now the Red Sox embark on a huge part of their schedule. In their next five series they face the Astros home and away, square off with Cleveland at Fenway, then head to New York. This series against the Astros could lay a marker for how the coming weeks might shape up.

5/18 Rick Porcello vs. Gerrit Cole (R) 7:10 pm NESN

5/19 Hector Velazquez vs. Corbin Martin (R) 7:15 pm NESN

5/20 Chris Sale vs. Brad Peacock (R) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

Pitchers

It is nice to be talking positively about Chris Sale again! In his last five starts, Sale has allowed just seven earned runs in 33 innings pitched. There is also the small matter of the incredibly number of strikeouts. In those last five starts he has 59 strikeouts. That is as incredible as it gets, and is nearly two strikeouts per innings! In fact the guys at Fangraphs took a deep dive into Sale’s 2019 season so far, which I highly recommend you read.

Corbin Martin was very impressive in his season debut for the Astros. In 5 1/3 innings he struck out nine and allowed just two earned runs. However, the Rangers and Red Sox are very different teams. The Rangers brand of baseball right now is essentially all or nothing. They are either going to batter you, or strikeout trying. The Red Sox have a little more nuance to their offense. It will be interesting to see how Martin fairs, but more than anything it will be good for the Red Sox to get a chance to face him. There is a good chance they could be seeing him again come playoff time.

Gerrit Cole is the ace in this series for the Astros. However, he has had some struggles in 2019, especially on the road. Away from Houston this season Cole has a 4.30 ERA, but has struck out 49 hitters in 29 1/3 innings. This should be a fascinating duel between a pitcher providing mixed results, and a lineup which is starting to hit its rhythm.

Hitters

The Red Sox face three right-handed pitchers in this series in the form of Cole, Martin and Peacock. This season the Red Sox hitters rank 15th in home runs, fifth in batting average, and eighth in runs scored against righties. However, they will need to be at their peak at the plate in this series against a potent Astros team.

The Astros offense is lighting up the stat sheet this season. Heading into this series they rank first in the majors in batting average, OBP, runs, home runs and slugging percentage. Their offense is a juggernaut. Either this team is going to have to pitch well, or the hitters are going to have to go toe-to-toe with them.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: The news that Sale is back close to his old self is a massive relief, but their are still question marks. Porcello is just meh, and the Red Sox are going to need him to be better come the end of the season and during the playoffs. Velazquez has been promising, but he has only gone five innings once this season, mostly serving in a relief role. Now would be a great time for Sale to show us he is right back at the height of his powers, and for Porcello to step up and demonstrate he can be a contributor in the playoffs this year.

Hitting: Now that J.D. Martinez is finally starting to find his power legs things feel a little more comfortable. Martinez already has five home runs this month, and his power being a factor means that this lineup can go head-to-head with anyone. On top of that Andrew Benintendi has three home runs this month, and suddenly this team is not being carried by the power of Mitch Moreland and Michael Chavis, which is a huge relief. Now it would be great if this lineup can take apart a good rotation and settle any remaining concerns.

EXPECTATIONS

The three game cushion over the .500 mark provides some consolation that if things go wrong here, the Red Sox are still above water. However, this series is about so much more than just this series. The way the Astros are playing there is a good chance that the Red Sox will meet them again in the Postseason. That series is also more likely to be on the road right now, so losing to them at home would be less than ideal.

This series is the first part of an Astros double, with a trip to the Blue Jays filling the sandwich. The Red Sox have a legitimate opportunity to stamp their authority back on the AL over the next week. If they can win series both at home and on the road against the Astros, everyone will be back to taking them seriously. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Right now getting out of Boston with a win in this series would be a major accomplishment.

Red Sox – Mariners Series Preview

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It seems a long time ago that the Mariners handed the Red Sox a 3-1 series defeat to open the season. Now over a month later the Mariners comes to face a surging Red Sox. The Sox took their May record to 7-2 and got themselves back to .500 on the season for the first time since the season began.

5/10 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Erik Swanson (R) 7:10 pm NESN

5/11 Rick Porcello vs. Felix Hernandez (R) 1:05 pm NESN

5/12 Josh Smith vs. Marco Gonzales (L) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

The Red Sox face two starting pitchers in Swanson (ERA: 4.94) and Hernandez (ERA: 5.20) who have struggled this season. However, they have had contrasting experiences on the road in 2019. Swanson has a 3.95 ERA on the road, compared to an ERA of 6.16 on the road for Hernandez.

Josh Smith’s first career start for the Red Sox was somewhat of a disaster, as he allowed four earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, that is representative of his career as a starter so far. In 41 2/3 innings as a starter, Smith has a 6.48 ERA. However, with David Price and Nathan Eovaldi on the IL, the Red Sox need their 31-year old righty to step up in this start.

This season has been somewhat of a disaster for both Rodriguez and Porcello. However, the shining ray of light in two tough seasons has been their home form. Rodriguez has a 3.63 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 17 1/3 inning in Fenway Park this season. Similarly, Porcello has 3.00 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 18 innings.

Over 20 career games “King Felix” has been a thorn in the Red Sox side. There have been a handful of occasions where the Red Sox got to him in his career, but for the large part he has been very impressive. Hernandez is no longer the pitcher he once was, but the Red Sox should still be wary, as he held them to just two runs in seven innings in his one outing against them last season.

The Red Sox offense stumbled a little in Baltimore, scoring just 11 runs across those three games. However in amongst that there were home runs for Andrew Benintendi (4), J.D. Martinez (5) and Mookie Betts (7). If those three can springboard into a big series against the Mariners, the Red Sox can sail to a plus .500 record for the first time this season.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: I think I have mentioned the rotation in every series preview I have done this season. It would be lovely if we could just get some more of these question marks answered. The ace in the pack, Chris Sale, has calmed any fears. But now we need Porcello or Rodriguez to step up. Frankly, anything we get from Smith and Hector Velasquez is a major bonus, but for this team to continue this momentum the current #2 and #3 guys in this rotation have to step up.

Hitting: It might be time to start worrying about Jackie Bradley. His batting average is a woeful .142, and he has just three extra base hits in 123 plate appearances. On the bright side, he has stolen three bases, and his defense is a long way from being a liability. However, he is one of three hitters on the current 25-man roster with a batting average below .200, and this is the time of the season where that becomes a major concern.

EXPECTATIONS

A little hiccup in game two against the Orioles could not stop the Red Sox getting to .500 for the first time since Opening Day. However, they remain five games behind the impressive Rays, and are still 3.5 games behind a banged up Yankees squad. This series against a Mariners team flailing at 2-7 in May gives them the perfect opportunity to try and make a dent in the lead of those two teams.

The threat from the Mariners is their hitting. They rank first in both runs scored and home runs, as well as third in slugging percentage. However, their rotation is not great, and this is the weakest part of it. Unfortunately, this is also the weakest part of the Red Sox! This could be a fun high scoring weekend, which hopefully the Red Sox can escape from with a 2-1 record.

RED SOX – ORIOLES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox are 5-1 in May and now head to Baltimore hoping to take advantage of the 12-22 Orioles.

5/6 Josh Smith vs. John Means (L) 7:05pm NESN

5/7 Ryan Weber vs. David Hess (R) 7:05pm NESN

5/8 Chris Sale vs. Andrew Cashner (R) 7:05pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

Josh Smith will be making his first start of the season, and just the 10th of his career in the first game of the series. In three Triple-A starts this season he has a 3.78 ERA and has struck out 23 hitters in 16 2/3 innings. However, in his career as a major league starter, he has a 6.10 ERA and just 31 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings.

Ryan Weber has been called up from Triple-A to take the spot of the injured David Price, who was placed on the disabled list on Monday. Weber has made eight major leagues starts in his career, with a 5.01 ERA. Additionally, in five starts at Triple-A, Weber has a 5.04 ERA this season.

John Means comes into this series with an impressive 2.81 ERA this season. However, as a starter his ERA is 3.70 compared to 1.15 as a reliever. In his last start against the Chicago White Sox he gave up four earned runs in just five innings. Additionally, he has struggled to strike hitters out as a starter, with just 12 strikeouts in 18 innings.

The Red Sox have faced both David Hess and Andrew Cashner earlier in this season. They have a 1-1 record, scoring three earned runs against each starter. The Red Sox hit one home run against each starter in that series. Andrew Benintendi took Hess deep, before Christian Vazquez did the same to Cashner.

In the month of May the Red Sox have scored a whopping 46 runs, averaging 7.67 runs per game. By contrast, in the first 29 games of the season they averaged just 4.46 runs per game.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: With Nathan Eovaldi on the shelf for a while longer after elbow surgery, the Red Sox need someone to step up. With David Price being the only regular starter with an ERA under 4.00, the Red Sox desperately need Smith to provide them a solid fifth option. That is especially the case now that Price is on the 10-day IL with elbow inflammation. They do not need him to be great, but they need solid performances.

Hitting: May has been a strong month for the Red Sox, but there is potentially still more to come. J.D. Martinez has just four home runs this season, all off left-handed pitchers. They will also be hoping that Michael Chavis can stay hot, as he has six home runs and 12 walks in 61 plate appearances.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox have battled their way back to a 17-18 record entering this series. They are now just five games behind the Rays and are showing the form that we came to expect from them last season. Against a terrible Orioles team they have a great chance to keep their foot on the accelerator.

The Orioles pitching ranks last in both ERA and batting average against this season. Therefore, the Red Sox can hopefully hit their way past having to use two inexperienced pitchers to open this series. All eyes will then turn to Chris Sale, who has given up just four earned runs in his last three starts. There is a great opportunity here to get out of Camden Yards with another three wins.

RED SOX – ORIOLES SERIES PREVIEW

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This weekend is one of my favorite as a Red Sox fan, culminating in Patriots Day. Hopefully this year, the Patriots Day series can inspire the Red Sox to turn their season around.

PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)

4/12 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. David Hess (R) 7:10pm NESN

4/13 Rick Porcello vs. Andrew Cashner (R) 1:05pm NESN

4/14 David Price vs. John Means (L) 1:05pm NESN

4/15 Chris Sale vs. Dan Straily (R) 11:05am NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

In what is becoming the weekly Chris Sale report, we enter another stage of this saga. Sale’s average fastball velocity was back at 92 mph, after being 89.9 in the previous start in Oakland. The results against Toronto still were not what we want to see, and the fastball still sits a couple of mph below his career average. Let’s see what Monday brings.

The Orioles enter this series after losing their last series 1-3 to the Athletics. Offensively they struggled in the last three games, averaging just 3.33 runs per game. Overall this season the Orioles rank 22nd in OBP, 21st in home runs and 21st in slugging percentage this season.

The Red Sox offense is continuing to heat up over the last few games. Now they face up against an Orioles pitching staff which ranks 29th in ERA, WHIP and batting average against.

None of the pitchers scheduled to start for the Orioles have much history against the Red Sox. The Oriole with the most appearances against the Red Sox is first baseman Chris Davis. In 595 PA against the Red Sox, he owns a .220 batting average, .299 OBP, .393 slugging percentage and 23 home runs.

Mitch Moreland went deep again in the first game of the Blue Jays series. Entering the second game of that series, he leads the Red Sox with four home runs on the season. With another three right-handed pitchers on the slate, he could play a big part once again in this series.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Bullpen: With a three run lead in the ninth on Tuesday Matt Barnes got the save opportunity, but after giving up a run the save was completed by Colten Brewer. It will be interesting to see who sees the next save opportunity. The smart money is likely on Ryan Brasier, but it is interesting that he did not get a shot on Tuesday.

Starting Pitching: There are still a lot of questions around this rotation, with all five starters having an ERA over five right now. After six games against the relatively slow starting Blue Jays and Orioles it would be good to see the rotation show some promising signs. Hector Velazquez was interesting in his spot start and could have a shot at the rotation if these struggles continue.

EXPECTATIONS

If the Red Sox can finish of the Blue Jays series with a win and then sweep the Orioles they could be close to .500. After starting 3-8 on the road, they need to at least win four these six games. They have already lost one, meaning they can only really afford one more loss in this home stand.

If they head into New York next Tuesday much worse than 7-10, then questions are really going to start to be raised. We are by no means too far into the season for this to turnaround. However, losing series to the Orioles and Blue Jays would be pretty concerning for a team with World Series ambitions.

RED SOX – BLUE JAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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The opening road trip from hell is over. Unfortunately, the Red Sox return home from that trip with a 3-8 record. However, they find the Toronto Blue Jays coming to town, who have also had their struggles so far this season.

PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)

4/9 Chris Sale vs. Matt Shoemaker (R) 2:00pm NESN

4/11 Nathan Eovaldi vs. Aaron Sanchez (R) 7:10pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

The results were better for Chris Sale in his second start, but the way he got there was concerning. The hope was that Sale could improve on his 92.9 mph average fastball velocity from his first start. However, things actually got worse, as Sale averaged just 89.9 mph in his second start of the season in Oakland. He may have only given up one run, but he also only struck out one, compared to two walks.

The Blue Jays were 0-4 in their last series against the Cleveland Indians, largely thanks to their terrible offense. This season the Blue Jays offense ranks 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 27th in runs and 26th in slugging percentage.

The Red Sox offense heated up in their last series against the Diamondbacks, averaging seven runs per game. However, they go up against a team who have been pitching well. The Blue Jays are giving up an average of just 2.75 runs against (3rd) and a .194 batting average against (4th). In addition, they are allowing just 1.05 combined hits and walks per innings pitched. However, their schedule has consisted of the Tiger, Orioles and Indians, so this will be their toughest test to date.

Aaron Sanchez has faced off with the Sox 19 times, 11 times as a starter. In 71 innings against the Red Sox, he has a 4.06 ERA striking out 62 batters and a allowing a 1.282 WHIP. Shoemaker on the other hand has been strong against the Red Sox. He is 2-1, with 16 strikeouts in 15 innings and a 2.93 ERA.

Mitch Moreland is coming off an interesting series in Arizona. The left-handed slugger hit two home runs in nine ABs, but they were also his only two hits of the series. With two right-handed pitchers on the slate for this series, Moreland could be a crucial part of the Red Sox offense as they return home.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Bullpen: With Craig Kimbrel potentially returning to Fenway for the World Series ring ceremony, the Red Sox come home with a number of question about their bullpen still remaining. Colten Brewer gave up the game losing run on Saturday, before Ryan Brasier got the save on Sunday. Both Brasier and Matt Barnes have been really good this season, with neither giving up a run. However, with the Red Sox having given up so many runs early in games we have not had many chances to see these guys in high leverage situations.

Starting Pitching: After the hitters somewhat came alive in their last series, most of the Red Sox question remain with their pitching. We touched on Sale above, and he remains the biggest one to watch, both in terms of results and velocity. Eovaldi has given up nine earned runs in 10 innings, including four home runs. After a strong finish to last season, the Red Sox will be desperate to see Eovaldi get back on track.

EXPECTATIONS

This was never the way the season was supposed to start. 3-8 is not the end of the world, but it is obviously less than ideal. On the bright side, the team is healthy in the large majority. There are major concerns about the rotation, but we are looking at extremely small sample sizes. Two good starts for any of them and their numbers will look fine, if not back to the way we may have hoped when the season started.

The negatives are clear to see, but the positives should not be overlooked. The Red Sox are just 4.5 games back on the division leading Tampa Bay Rays. They are also just two games behind the Yankees, who have not been great out of the gate and are struggling with injuries. We are less than 7% of the way through the season.

There is a lot of baseball still to play, and one of the toughest parts of the schedule is in the rear view mirror.

RED SOX – DIAMONDBACKS SERIES PREVIEW

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With another tough series in the rear view mirror the Boston Red Sox head to Arizona. They have a three game slate scheduled to finish off their 11 game road trip.

PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)

4/5 Rick Porcello vs. Zack Godley (R) 7:10pm NESN

4/6 David Price vs. Luke Weaver (R) 8:10pm NESN

4/7 Undecided vs. Merrill Kelly (R) 4:10pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

Rick Porcello comes into his second start of the season with a 13.5 ERA. Meanwhile, David Price has a 6.00 ERA after his first start. Porcello was unable to get out of the first innings against the Mariners. Price at least managed to go six innings, but gave up four earned runs, including three home runs in the process. The Red Sox desperately need two of their veteran pitchers to correct what has been a worrying opening week for the rotation.

The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is crushing it in 2019 so far. Prior to Wednesday’s games they ranked third in the majors in batting average, runs, home runs and slugging percentage. The 14 home runs the Diamondbacks have hit will be a particular concern for a Red Sox staff. The Sox pitchers have given up 17 home runs, which is last in the AL.

Offensively the Red Sox have been slow out of the gate, ranking 20th in on base percentage and 17th in both batting average and slugging percentage. So far they have relied on home runs to fuel their offense, hitting seven long balls to help them rank ninth in the majors in runs scored with 30.

J.D. Martinez returns to the face the team that helped propel him onto the national stage. In 62 games with the Diamondbacks in 2017, Martinez hit 29 home runs in 232 AB, with an incredible .741 slugging percentage. Hopefully he can find some form after a series in Oakland in which he has registered just three hits through his first three games.

The Red Sox will see a long time foe in Adam Jones in this series. Jones, who has three home runs for the Diamondbacks already this season, has a career .279 batting average with 28 home runs when facing the Red Sox. The only team he has hit more home runs against is the Toronto Blue Jays.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: There are a couple of fascinating rotation questions in this series. Firstly, who will the Red Sox choose to fill the final starting spot of the series? With Chris Sale likely to be saved for the home opener the Red Sox need a sixth starter to fill out their rotation for one start. They could call up someone from Triple-A, but there are no obvious candidates. The other option is that they could have a bullpen day to fill that spot. However, that depends on how much use the ‘pen gets in the opening two games.

The Red Sox will also be extremely keen to see the results when Price and Porcello take the mound this week. With Nathan Eovaldi struggling through two starts and Eduardo Rodriguez being shelled in his first start, at least one of these two needs to step up and provide some stability.

Hitting Depth: Xander Bogaerts returned to the lineup Wednesday, which will be a relief for the Sox. If Bogaerts had needed longer out of the lineup then there would have been some questions. Both Eduardo and Nunez and Brock Holt of struggled out of the gate, and the Red Sox may have considered activating Dustin Pedroia earlier than planned.

EXPECTATIONS

This has been an incredibly tough start for the Red Sox and frankly we just want to get them home now. Entering Wednesdays game they had a 2-5 record, and will enter the Diamondbacks series without a series win to their name. After 11 straight days they will also have Monday off to regroup, get home and prepare for the home opener. That doesn’t make winning this series any less important. However, if they can escape this series with even just a single win it is not the end of the world. 3-8 or 4-7 is not a disaster, especially with the Yankees also having stumbled out of the gate (2-4).

A series win would be great but if it doesn’t happen it is not the end of the world. This will be one of the toughest stretches of the season, and it is out of the way early. It may not have gone entirely to plan but the Red Sox can recover in the coming weeks.

RED SOX – ATHLETICS SERIES PREVIEW

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After a mixed opening to the season in Seattle, the Red Sox head to Oakland to continue an 11 game road trip. Here is what to watch out for in this second of three opening road series.

PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)

4/1 David Price vs Aaron Brooks (R) 10:07pm NESN

4/2 Chris Sale vs Mike Fiers (R) 10:07pm NESN

4/3 Nathan Eovaldi vs Marco Estrada (R) 10:07pm NESN

4/4 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Brett Anderson (L) 3:07pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

The biggest question mark in this series is going to be Chris Sale’s velocity. Thomas touched on it in his preview last week and his fears were somewhat realized. Sale’s fastball averaged 92.8 mph in Seattle on Opening Day. Last season he averaged below that just twice, the fourth game of the season (90.9) and the last (90.1). Last season on Opening Day his velocity was up at 94.9. If Sale’s velocity is low again in Oakland then serious question marks will start to be raised.

Due to the Opening Series in Japan, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada will be making their third starts of the season. Fiers has struggled with a 5.00 ERA and a 5.71 FIP across nine innings. Estrada has fared better with a 2.45 ERA in his 11 innings. However, Estrada has managed just four strikeouts, compared to two home runs and has an alarming 5.49 FIP.

After a home run loaded Opening Series in Seattle, the Red Sox will not be pleased to see Khris Davis, who has already hit three home runs this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez will not be pleased to see a right-handed heavy Athletics lineup. He struck out just 24% of right-handed hitters he faced last season, and surrendered a 4.15 xFIP against them.

Expect to see J.D. Martinez have a strong series with three right-handed pitchers on the mound. In 2018, he had a 174 wRC+ against righties. Unusually for right-handed hitters, Martinez was stronger last season against righties than lefties.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: With the bullpen likely to remain a question mark until it has completely proven otherwise, a lot of pressure will fall on the rotation. Sale is obviously the biggest question mark but there are also questions surrounding Eovaldi and Rodriguez after their first starts.

Hitting Depth: There are no major worries around the hitters at this early stage. However, Nunez, Holt and Swihart had registered just one hit between them in the Sox first three games. With Dustin Pedroia on the injured list the Red Sox need their hitting depth to help them get off to a strong start.

EXPECTATIONS

Many people saw the Opening Series as a disadvantage to the Athletics and Mariners, due to the amount of travel. However, at this stage of the season it is actually an advantage. Those two teams had to ramp up their season preparation a week earlier than everyone else and are therefore slightly ahead of the rest of the league. Travelling to both of those teams in the first eight days of the season is a tough assignment for the Red Sox. The Sox also come into this game having gone 1-2 on the road in Oakland, and 2-4 overall against them last season.

A three series road trip to start the season is really tough for any team. The pros of it are that it gets some of the travelling out of the way early. However, the Red Sox would ideally want to come out of these first eight games around .500, meaning they will need to at least split this four game series in Oakland.

MLB Season Win Totals: Over/Unders

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The build up to the start of the baseball season is always a lot of fun for many reasons. Maybe you love fantasy baseball, or maybe you just love the sounds, smells and feelings that come with baseball. The start of the season brings something for everyone, and that includes the gamblers among us. Last week as a staff we looked at some of our MVP and Cy Young picks. If you are looking to have a bet on those markets you can find our feelings there. Instead I will focus on the season win totals and try to identify some juicy over/under bets for you to take advantage of.

I will start with the Red Sox but there is not really a bet to be had. The starting line is set at 94.5, a whopping 13.5 wins less than they had last season. However, when you look closer at elements such as the Pythagorean win total (103) and their record in one score games (25-14) there is room for regression in that total. Add in the lack of a lock down closer and a win total in the mid-90s is a very likely outcome.

Houston Astros Over 96.5

It may seem aggressive to project any team to win more than 96.5 games, but the Astros have the talent to do it. They are perhaps the best all-around team in the American League and their division rivals often blow hot and cold. Last season they won 103 games, but their Pythagorean total was even higher at 108. Additionally, that record came despite just being .500 in one run games. The combination of the Pythagorean total and the one-run record suggest to me the Astros could get over 100 wins once again this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5

2019 is a fascinating season for the darlings of the 2018 season. The Brewers stunned the league and nearly made it all the way to the NLCS. However, the fact that were a surprise package means there are question marks for 2019. Their rotation lacks both ace level upside and struggles for depth. They also play in a division which has quality from 1-5, which could make repeating their 96 win season tough. Equally their Pythagorean win total was five lower at 91, and their record in one run games was a whopping 33-19. Both of those numbers scream regression, and combined with my other concerns I think the Brewers slip back to a .500 baseball team this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Over 93.5

Another super aggressive projection for a relatively high win total. However, they were actually relatively unlucky to only win 92 games, as their Pythagorean win total was up at 102 wins. No team in the majors had a bigger difference between those two totals. The Dodgers have lost some quality offensively, but they still have a ton of talent. In addition, their rotation has both the high end skill and the depth that you want from a major contender. The Dodgers will be right there come playoff conversation time this season.

Baltimore Orioles Under 59.5

To end let’s bring this back to the AL East, the 2018 last placed team overall. The Orioles finished the season with 47 wins and they may actually have been lucky to get that many. The Orioles won an incredible 70% of their one run games in 2018. If that regressed back towards 50% this season they could struggle to reach 45 wins. However, they were slightly hard done by last season if their Pythagorean win total of 55 is to be believed. The issue there is that even if that was true they would still have been four wins below their over/under this season. A team that was that bad, and actually lost talent during the season, is a prime candidate to be bad again.

Image credit: Sports Illustrated

Projecting the Red Sox: Andrew Benintendi

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The Baseball season is now just around the corner. We are starting to see pitchers throw more innings, and hitters see more time at the plate in Spring Training. The Red Sox season kicks off in a fraction over two weeks time (15 days) on the road in Seattle. Therefore, let’s carry on our series projecting how the Red Sox hitters will do at the plate. In the last couple of weeks we have looked at J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Today we look at Andrew Benintendi.

Mr. Consistent

Unlike Martinez and Betts, Benintendi is not the type of hitter who will make headlines with his hitting. However, what he offers is consistent hitting across the board, with just enough of everything to keep everyone happy. In fact the last two years have looked extremely similar for Benintendi, right down to the number of plate appearances.

2018 did see Benintendi take a slight dip in his power numbers compared to 2017, from 20 home runs to 16. Interestingly, last season he actually increased his average exit velocity and barrel % over 2017. The likely reason his power numbers dipped is due to slight decrease in his launch angle. Usually, you would like to see those numbers come back up, but the results of that launch angle change were seen elsewhere.

Getting on Base

Last season saw Benintendi increase his batting average from .271 to .290. That is an increase that is absolutely worth losing a handful of home runs. The really good news is that the increase was not a fluke. Benintendi’s expected batting average was .282 last season, slightly lower than the final output, but not a number which suggests major regression. A report from the Boston Herald suggested that Benintendi may focus on batting average even more this year, even if it comes at the expense of power.

In addition, Benintendi backed up his solid 10.6% walk rate in 2017 with a 10.7% number in 2018. While it only puts him 34th among qualified hitters, it combines really nicely with that batting average. In 2018, Benintendi ranked 29th in on base percentage, one of three Red Sox hitters in the top 30. His ability to get on base consistently is why many project him to hit leadoff.

Leadoff Hitter?

Hitting in the number one spot is not for everyone. We have seen some hitters struggle with the pressure of being the first man up for their team. However, when Benintendi was asked to hit leadoff in 2018 he thrived. In a small sample size of 97 plate appearances, Benintendi had a .322 batting average a .381 OBP. His walk rate was down slightly, but that was replaced and by getting on base more consistently with his bat.

Interestingly, despite having less than sixth of his plate appearances in the leadoff spot, Benintendi actually hit nearly a third of his home runs last season there. The Herald report suggests that is not a trend we will see continuing this season, but it is worth noting.

One reason that Benintendi may be changing his approach to become a leadoff hitter is because of his record hitting with the bases empty. Last season, Benintendi returned a .243 batting average when at the plate with no one on base. That is in contrast to a .350 batting average with men on base, and a .338 return with men in scoring position. If Benintendi is to hold down the leadoff spot, he will need to improve on that split in 2019.

Running Wild?

Another element of Benintendi’s game which has been consistent the last two years has been his base stealing. Benintendi has attempted 25 and 24 steals respectively over the last two seasons. He has been successful on 20 and 21. His over 80% conversion rate on stolen bases comes despite ranking 212th in the majors in sprint speed last season. For context, that placed him in the 68th percentile of major league players. Above average, but not by much.

How Benintendi, and the Red Sox, approach base stealing will be interesting now that he is in the leadoff spot. On one hand you have a player who has had success on the base paths. On the other hand, his relative lack of speed comparatively could be a reason we see him running less. There is also the case of whether it is worth the risk of running Benintendi into potential outs when he is hitting in front of two of the most productive hitters in baseball. How incredibly stupid would everyone look if Benintendi was thrown out at second, only for Betts or Martinez to crush the next ball out of the park?

Given the success rate from the last two years you would expect to see Benintendi given the opportunity to steal bases this season. If he has issues then maybe the Red Sox rethink that, either mid season or for 2020. If the Red Sox do allow Benintendi to run at similar rate, then the extra plate appearances from leading off could mean that he has a shot to steal 25 bases. If they let him run a little more from the leadoff position, which they did last year, then 30 stolen bases could legitimately be on the cards for Benintendi.

Overall Production

Hitting largely first or second in the order last year, Benintendi returned 103 runs and 87 RBI. The switch to leadoff is likely to see those numbers slant even further to the runs side in 2019. A rough projection on his return would still be a combined 190, but more in the region of 115 runs compared to 75 RBI. Usually we can see leadoff hitters struggle for RBI, but the bottom of the Red Sox order has enough talent that Benintendi should still see plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

Therefore, a final projection for Benintendi is likely to be somewhere in the region of 12-15 home runs, 115 runs, 75 RBI, a .290-.300 batting average and 25-30 stolen bases. Again, not the headline numbers of his two superstar teams mates, but an extremely good return from a player who seems to be willing to put team goals above personal glory.

Featured image courtesy of Grueling Truth

Projecting the Red Sox: Mookie Betts

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The 2018 season is now just a few weeks away, and expectations are mounting once again for the Boston Red Sox. As the defending World Series Champions, a lot is once again expected from a team which is used to playing under pressure. With the powerful New York Yankees once again expected to provide the main threat in the division, the Red Sox will need contributions from the entire roster. However, they need their star players to lead from the front. Last week we looked at what we might expect from J.D. Martinez. This week it is the turn of star center fielder Mookie Betts.

The 2017 or 2018 Version?

If you take a look at the last two years of Betts’ career then you may come away with mixed feelings. After a strong 2016, in which Betts hit 31 home runs with a .318 batting average, 2017 was somewhat underwhelming. In 712 plate appearances Betts managed just 24 home runs and a career low .264 batting average. However, 2018 took things to a new level entirely. Betts finished last season with 32 home runs and a .346 batting average in 614 plate appearances. If you look at the balance of his career, then 2017 is the outlier.

One thing that has been consistent has been his ability to steal bases. The last three years have seen Betts average 27.3 stolen bases. Getting to 30 again in 2019 might be a push, but somewhere between 25 & 30 feels like a safe bet.

The Change in Approach

There is no other way to phrase it that Betts hit the crap out of the ball in 2018. Having never had an average exit velocity above 90 mph, Betts averaged a whopping 92.3 in 2018. Part of that is down to just how cleanly he hit the ball. Prior to last season, Betts averaged a Barrel % of around 5%. Last season that was an incredible 14.1%, the 16th best mark in the majors. If we look at his barrels compared to plate appearances he ranks as high as joint 4th (9.9%). Combine that with a nearly four degree increase in launch angle and the career best HR/PA rate of 5.2% makes a lot of sense.

That increase in exit velocity also explains why we saw a career high batting average. When you hit the ball that hard and that cleanly you are always going to have a chance to have a good batting average. However, expecting another .340 performance might be a stretch. Last season Betts expected batting average was back down at .311. That was second best in the league, behind just Christian Yelich, but it is a long way from that .346 number. In fact Betts had the 20th biggest difference in the between his expected and actual batting average. That kind of separation is unlikely to be sustainable.

One Dimensional?

There is no denying that Betts is a great all around player. However, there is some fear that his hitting has become a little predictable. 2018 saw Betts hit the lowest percentage of balls in his career to the opposite field (18%). Correspondingly, it also saw him get shifted again the most times in his career. In 2018 Betts saw as many plate appearances against the shift as he had in the rest of his career combined. Additionally, nearly 75% of those came in the last three and a bit months of the season. It will be fascinating to see if that trend continues into 2019.

On the plus side, Betts hit the ball so well in 2018 that he actually had a .375 batting average against the shift. However, if some of that exit velocity drops off then Betts could be a victim of the shift next season. Hopefully, both Betts and the Red Sox are aware of the situation and can adjust accordingly if an issue starts to arise.

The Final Expectations

Taking a look at the various different projections available for Betts on Fangraphs a clear patter begins to emerge. The general expectations are around 30 home runs, 25-30 stolen bases, a .300-.310 batting average and at least a combined 200 runs and RBI. They may not be quite as good as 2018, but they are more than good enough from one of your two marquee hitters.

Featured photo courtesy of David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports