Author Archives: @benrolfe15

Projecting the Red Sox: J.D. Martinez

As we creep closer to the start of the baseball season it is time to start thinking about what we might see from the Red Sox players. As a team that won a World Series in 2018, expectations will be high. Those expectations will be boosted even further by how the Red Sox performed in the regular season. To kick off my look at what we can expect I am starting with the 40 home run superstar J.D. Martinez. In 649 plate appearances in 2018, Martinez hit 43 home runs with a .330 batting average a combined 240 runs and RBI. If we dig deeper into Martinez’s performance, can he sustain those numbers in 2019?

The Power

Martinez came into Boston off the back of one of the best second halves of a season in baseball history. In the back half of 2017 with the Diamondbacks, Martinez hit an incredible 29 home runs in 257 plate appearances. To put that into context, that is a home run every 8.86 plate appearances! The numbers behind that incredible number are also impressive. Across the whole of 2017, Martinez had a 91 mph exit velocity and a barrel percentage of 19.5%. Many people felt the only way was down in 2018, but they were mostly wrong.

Yes his PA/HR numbers dropped from that incredible second half, but it was a still home run in every 15.1 plate appearances. His barrel % dipped to 16%, which is still incredible, and his launch angle dropped 4.6 degrees. However, we actually saw his exit velocity increase by 2 mph to 93 mph. All told, Martinez ranked right up among the top 2% in the league in all the right metrics for power, hard hit rate, exit velocity and barrel %.

Getting On Base

Something that Martinez took to a new level in 2018 was his ability to get on base. Martinez set a career high in OBP, with a .402 mark, thanks to a career high in batting average, and pretty much matching it for walk rate. When you are getting on base over 40% of the time you are absolutely killing it for your team. Those numbers are the reason he had 110 runs and 130 RBI last season.

Focusing on the batting average, which sat at .330, it is a number he could come close to repeating. A good indicator of whether a batting average is true or not is expected batting average. Expected batting average is calculated based on the % chance of success of each batted ball event. Well, Martinez had an expected batting average of .310, which is extremely impressive. In fact, it ranked in the top 1% of the league. If I had to bet I would say .330 is something he will not repeat, but I would definitely bet he is right around the .300 region, which is still extremely impressive.

The Final Product

Martinez is now 31 so he may be coming towards the end of his prime. However, the numbers from last year did not suggest a drop off, and it would be unfair on him to expect anything less than a 90% return on what we saw last season. If I had to put numbers on it I would say 37-40 home runs, a batting average in the .300 region and a combined 220 runs and RBI.

Injuries will always be a concern for Martinez, but he will play the bare minimum in the outfield. Therefore, he will be at the plate causing havoc once again for the Red Sox. 2019 should be another great year for this late blooming slugger.

Why and How the Patriots Should Trade for Antonio Brown

The crisis surrounding Antonio Brown and the Pittsburgh Steelers seems to evolve every day. We have now reached the point where the Steelers are willing to part ways with their star receiver. Not only that but they have asked his agent to help facilitate finding a trade. Currently there are apparently three teams who have enquired about a trade. Given the Steelers statement about not trading Brown to certain place it is unlikely the New England Patriots are one of those teams. However, they should be interested because there is a way they could get Brown on their roster.

A Wonderful Talent

How good Brown is at the wide receiver position has been somewhat lost in the uproar over his behaviour. The 30-year old receiver has been in the league now for nine seasons, and has been selected to the Pro Bowl in seven of those seasons. The only two seasons he was not selected, were his rookie season and his third season. In those two seasons he only played in a combined 22 games. In every other season of his career he has played in at least 15 games.

What he has done when on the field is incredible. Over his entire career Brown averaged 86.2 yards per game with an average of 6.4 receptions per game and 13.4 yards per reception. In addition, Brown averages 0.56 touchdowns per game, and has scored double digit touchdowns in four seasons.

Brown’s not slowing down either, despite being 30. Last season he was targeted 168 times, for 1297 yards and a league leading 15 receiving touchdowns. His receptions per game were slightly down on the previous five seasons, but he still registered a 62% catch rate.

Needs Outweigh the Risks

There is no denying the Patriots need a receiver. They gambled on Josh Gordon in 2018, but he could not shake his history. That means that the Patriots still need an answer on the outside. They have struggled to draft a receiver, so trading for one seems like the correct answer.

The issue with trading for Brown is slightly different, but no less complex. Brown’s outbursts have been an on and off distraction for the Steelers, and the Patriots will need a structure for dealing with it. The positive is that the Patriots only real stars are Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Both will likely to be happy to share the spotlight with Brown. Additionally, he is unlikely to be called out by either of them the way he feels he has been in Pittsburgh.

The Patriots have shown the willingness to gamble on character risks in the past. Some have worked out, such as Randy Moss, and some have not, Albert Haynesworth and Josh Gordon. In the past those risk have largely been on character only. This risk would also be financial. In year one the burden of the cap would be on the Steelers, but after that Brown is still due a total of $37 million on the cap. Ultimately I think it is worth the risk, but it is a bigger risk that they have taken before.

The How

The Steelers have made it pretty clear they will not trade Brown to their main rivals. That absolutely includes the Patriots. Therefore, the Patriots need to be creative if they are to have a chance at Brown. One option would be to make the Steelers an offer so good they would struggle to refuse. However, that will likely still not work if the Steelers stick to their principles.

The second option involves taking a leaf from the baseball and basketball worlds. In those sports three team trades are common, but football it is not. The slight difference here is that the Patriots need to do it without the Steelers knowing they are involved. Instead what they would need is to offer an incentive to another team to first trade for Brown, and then trade him onto the Patriots. The Patriots would have to offer to return the value the team paid for Brown and give them something extra.

That might just be a pick upgrade. Such as if a team traded a pick in the top 10 of the second round, the Patriots could offer their #1 and a lower compensatory pick to sweeten the deal. Another option would be if the other team wanted one of the Patriots upcoming free agents. It is not entirely honorable, but they could try signing him to an extension before free agency and then send him to the other team.

Would it Work?

The Patriots would need to make such a good offer the middle team could not refuse. That team is likely to take a lot of stick for helping the Patriots acquire a player of Brown’s talent. That negative press may be too much for any team to risk, but it is worth picking up the phone.

The delicate balancing act is that the Patriots need to enquire without any of those teams telling the Steelers. If the Steelers get a whiff of what the Patriots are doing they may try and insert a clause into the trade. I am not sure of the legality of doing that, but it is definitely a consideration.

What matters most here is that Brown is a wonderful, if somewhat troubled, talent. The chance to get a talent like that does not come around often, and the Patriots should absolutely consider it.

Featured image courtesy of NBC Sports