Author Archives: @bossportsextra

The Patriots Playoff Piggy Bank Almost Full

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Another day, another dollar. Another week, another opponent left laying broken on the battlefield.

This week it was the baffled Buffalo Bills who couldn’t figure out a way to stop Brady, Gronk, and Lewis. Brady led the charge with 258 yards through the air, connecting with Rob Gronkowski for 147. Dion Lewis balanced out the unstoppable attack, marching on the Bills for just under 100 yards rushing.

The hero-of-the-day award for the Pats eighth-straight win goes to Rex Burkhead, who added 78 rushing yards to the mix and two touchdowns.  Honorable mention goes to the team on the other side of the ball who held the Buffalo Bills to just a field goal!

On to the Dolphins

The main question on my mind focuses on Belichick.   Will he take his foot off the gas in the coming weeks?   At 10-2 , the Pats have secured a playoff berth and look like the #1 seed. It all depends on how it shakes out with the Pittsburgh Steelers over the next couple of weeks.  Coming up the Patriots have the Dolphins, The Steelers, the Buffalo Bills, then the NY Jets. If mathematics have the Pats locked for the #1 seed, in the next two weeks, will Mr. Belichick start resting key players guys? Or will he want to bash heads and close strong at the regular season finish line?

Knowing that we are not out of the proverbial woods just yet, the foot won’t come off the pedal next week when the Miami Dolphins visit Foxboro. I am confident that the Pats will come in as 10-point to two-touchdown favorites.  But at the time of this writing, (Sunday evening) odds on next week’s Monday Night Football match up with the Fins haven’t been published. That said, we should check the top betting sites to see where the lines fall, as it’s always a good indicator of the potential outcome.

Stats Don’t Lie

Assuming that Cutler and company are road-dogs, recent trends do not bode well for Miami. Since 2016, the Dolphins only win 38% of games when underdogs away from home. Conversely, the Pats are 11-4 (73.3%) as home favorites. And even worse news for the Fins, the Patriots stand 24-7 (77.4%) against the spread in that same stretch.
Division play for the Miami Dolphins remains middling at best. Sitting at 5-4 since 2016, they have won only 55% of their matchups against division rivals. The Pats, on the other hand, have an 8-1 record. This puts them at 88.9% against division opponents.  Prior to this Sunday’s win, the Pats took over the predictive power rating boards at #1 (and I doubt that will change) and also lead the league in probability to win the Super Bowl at 27.7%.

So, who rounds out the top five? The Philadelphia Eagles, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New Orleans Saints, and the Minnesota Vikings, respectively. Where are the Dolphins on this list, you might ask? Nowhere in sight.  Ok. They are somewhere.  Way back at 28th, with a measly .8% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.0% chance of taking home those coveted rings.
Lest I knock on wood, I should say: The Patriots have been surprised (we all were) a couple of times this season. So, they can’t go to sleep on the Miami Dolphins. Now that I have acknowledged the ‘ego gods’ and gotten that out of the way, I can go back to say that I predict much more of the same next week. A ninth-straight win in pummeling, double-digit fashion and one step closer to a #1 seed playoff berth.

With Kyrie Irving, Boston May Win It All

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The Celtics continue to go from strength to strength this season but the odds of them dethroning Golden State continue to plummet. Boston has the league’s best defense under Brad Stevens.  And the team has shrugged off an injury to Gordon Hayward to top power rankings charts across the board. The Celts have already beaten the Warriors and have the best record in the league, with Kyrie Irving putting forward a strong case to be named regular season MVP.   Some claim that he Celtics could surpass the Red Sox and the Patriots in the popularity stakes.  Whether or not you buy into that, it is certainly a great time to be a sports fan in Boston.

Green vs. Gold

But can Boston really beat Golden State when it counts? The sport books remain unconvinced. Betonline will have odds for the Celtics, review them.   Favorites going into almost every game at present. But in future odds, Golden State is a  -162 favorite to win a second consecutive NBA Championship.  Boston is out at +1000. Odds makers don’t even favor the Green to win the East.  The Cavs sit at -191 to win the conference and Stevens’ men +300. But underdog status will suit them.  No pressure,  and they can focus on creating an upset.

Fans have many positives to be taken from the Celtics’ win over Golden State on November 17. They restricted the reigning champs to just 88 points, their lowest score since Kevin Durant joined.  The Celts made a real statement in the win.  The rest of the league has takien notice. Semi Ojeleye marked Steph Curry out of the game.  Marcus Smart was all over Andre Iguodola.   And the Celtics executed Stevens’ plan perfectly. They won with hustle, heart and determination, a rock solid defense that can thwart any team in the league, and second-half momentum that often proves unstoppable.

Who Will be the Beast of the East?

The Celtics look to be heading for a collision with Cleveland in the east.  Right now, they have the better end of that monster summer trade with the Cavs that resulted in Kyrie Irving head to Boston and Isaiah Thomas go in the opposite direction. Irving has been a blur with the ball in his hands and has scored at least 20 points on 50 percent shooting in five straight games. He is now third favorite to be named regular season MVP, behind only James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Meanwhile Thomas is still injured, but when he returns to action, the Cavs will be a formidable opponent.  Thomas will have a point to prove if the Celtics meet the Cavs in the playoffs. LeBron James is a one-man wrecking ball, but after shutting out the dream team at Golden State so well, Boston need fear no one.

Al Horford looks nailed on for All Star status alongside Irving, while Jaylen Brown has come on leaps and bounds, building an outside case for All Star inclusion. Smart looks impressive when not shooting, and Jayson Tatum shines like a superstar of the future.  Aaron Baynes, Marcus Morris, Ojeleye and Daniel Theis continue to play very well. Stevens has  proved as good a coach as any in the business.   Celts fans have a great deal to be positive about going into the festive period. If they keep it up, the odds on them will continue to plummet and Golden State’s period of domination could prove short-lived.

Alex Cora is the Right Man for the Job in Boston

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The Red Sox are in the market for a new manager for the first time in five years after John Farrell was fired after another disappointing postseason appearance.

The team knocked it out of the park when they hired Farrell prior to the 2013 season, following up a tumultuous 2012 season with a World Series title in Farrell’s first season. The team followed that up with back-to-back last place finishes, as well as back-to-back AL East titles, something the organization had never achieved before.

Still, it was not enough, as division titles don’t buy you job security in Boston. Now, it’s back to square one, and the Red Sox seem to have their sights set on a new man to lead the ball club. A certain somebody who has experience playing in Beantown.

Take a minute and think back to the Red Sox teams of last decade, say from 2004-2010. Think of how much fun those teams were to watch; no drama, no media tirades, none of that. Just quality, winning baseball that resulted in two championships.

Cora played with the Red Sox right in the middle of that era. He was on the 2007 World Series winning team. He was on the 2008 team that was one win shy of back-to-back appearances in the Fall Classic.  Not to mention, Cora was teammates with Dustin Pedroia during the majority of his tenure in Boston.

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What this team needs is somebody who can communicate effectively in the clubhouse. The players need a manager that can be authoritative, but also friendly with the guys. Terry Francona found that happy medium, and it’s why he is one of the best managers, if not the best manager in Red Sox history.

Now, I’m not about to put Alex Cora in that category; the guy has only been a coach for one season.

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However, what I will say is that this team will have a different dynamic next season. The locker room will be better, players will be happier, and that will result in a much better on-field product.

Also, Red Sox fans everywhere will be spared from watching John Farrell make his fair share of questionable in-game decisions.  You can’t knock Farrell, however. I’m not here to crush the guy. He did bring a title to Boston in very unexpected fashion.  When it came right down to it, Farrell didn’t do enough after 2013 to maintain job security.

Should the Red Sox bring in Cora, which right now seems likely, the 2018 season looks much brighter than it did before.