Author Archives: @phaulkner

Boston Celtics: Free Agent Targets

The Void at Point Guard

Insiders around the NBA don’t expect Kyrie Irving to be playing for the Boston Celtics in 2019-2020. The Celtics could lose one of the best players in the league, but they’ll also lose their point guard. Assuming the Celtics don’t address their point guard issues in the draft, they’ll look to free agency.

It’s hard to imagine Aaron Baynes not exercising his $5.5 million ($5.5M) option, and restructuring Baynes’ contract seems unlikely. Al Horford is due $30.1M via a player option this season. and becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2020-2021 at age 34. If Horford earns that $301.1M, but another team signs Terry Rozier, the Celtics salary cap will still approach $99.9M. The Celtics would have just over $9M in cap space, and $23M in “soft cap” space, before hitting the luxury tax. It would be difficult for Boston to sign a marquee point guard while retaining roster depth with that kind of money. Horford restructuring his contract would not be difficult.

Rozier Celtics — Boston Celtics guard Kyrie Irving, left, smiles as he hugs teammate Terry Rozier (12) during a game in 2017. Both point guards are expected to sign with other teams for the 2019-2020 season. (AP Photo/Mary Schwalm)

Restructuring Al Horford

The Boston Celtics could restructure Horford to a 4-year $100M contract that paid $20M in 2019-2020. This hypothetical contract would pay Horford $23.5M, $27.5M and $29M, respectively, until 2022-2023. The salary cap will rise as Horford approaches 38 years of age by contract’s end. That restructured contract would free up an additional $10M in 2019-2020, affording the Celtics the requisite cap space.

This hypothetical contract would also count for $23.5M against the 2020-2021 salary cap. Combined with Gordon Hayward’s $34.1M, Marcus Smart’s $12.9M, Jason Tatum’s non-guaranteed $9.9M club option and Jaylen Brown’s $8.6M qualifying offer, the 2020-2021 salary cap would sit at $89.5M. Considering the NBA salary cap increases to $118M in 2020-2021, the Celtics would have $28.5M in cap space. The luxury tax threshold increases to $143M that season, meaning Boston could theoretically have upwards of $54M in cap space. That money will cover any free agent signed in 2019-2020, draft picks, a veteran minimum contract and extension space for Tatum and Brown.

The Boston Celtics will need to restructure Al Horford’s contract moving forward if the Celtics plan to sign any marquee free agents, or even offer extensions to existing players such as Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Free Agent Point Guards

The market happens to be rife with point guards, some of which would fit the Celtics roster and salary cap. There are 18 unrestricted, and one restricted, free agent point guards available this off season. I believe six of them would be perfect fits for the Celtics. Kemba Walker, an All-NBA selection, will command the most money. Ricky Rubio made $13.75M in 2018-2019 and will likely command somewhere ~150% of that salary in 2019-2020. Patrick Beverly and D’Angelo Russell both made ~$5.8M in 2018-2019, but Russell’s salary will be drastically different in 2019-2020. Elfrid Payton and Emmanuel Mudiay provide the most flexibility, but the most uncertainty. Mudiay’s $5.8M qualifying offer would cost the New York Knicks nearly $13M against their cap.

Considering the money likely required to secure Walker and Russell, combined with Russell’s documented immaturity, I would pass on both. One could also make the same financial argument for Rubio, whose production likely won’t match his salary. Mudiay is a nice player, but not much of an upgrade over Boston’s current options. Besides, Mudiay could be retained by the New York Knicks. I argue here for the free agent signings of Beverly and Payton. Patrick Beverly would provide the defensive veteran presence and playoff experience Brad Stevens would appreciate. Elfrid Payton, 25, averaged 10.6 ppg, 5.2 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 1.0 steal per game for the New Orleans Pelicans. Those contracts would likely cost the Celtics ~$20M per season going forward, freeing up the requisite cap space for depth. The Boston Celtics need to make moves at point guard and I believe I’ve outlined the perfect plan.

Boston Celtics: Potential 2019-2020 Roster

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Power Through Draft Picks

For the past several seasons the Boston Celtics have been in a position of power. The Celtics “Big Three” of the late oughts were parlayed into an abundance of first round picks by GM Danny Ainge. One of those picks was traded for Kyrie Irving, who instantly propelled the Celtics to the next level. When Irving’s late season injury kept him out of the 2017-2018 playoffs, the young Boston core stepped up. The future looked bright for the Boston Celtics.

Unfortunately, the Kyrie Irving situation may not have worked in Boston, but the bigger question is: Will any big free agent acquisition end up working out for the Celtics? The situation doesn’t look as promising with Irving reportedly wanting out of Boston, which would hurt the Celtics trade prospects. Losing Kyrie would also make it difficult to lure another marquee player who might be reluctant to take on Irving’s 2017-2019 role. Players also seem to be keying in on a city’s marketability, and even the weather. There’s a reason we only seem to hear about New York or Los Angeles as potential landing spots for superstar free agents.

The situation between the Boston Celtics and All-NBA point guard Kyrie Irving didn’t exactly go as Celtics fans would have hoped the past two seasons. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

A Realistic Future

Imagine a scenario in which the Celtics lose Kyrie Irving next season. Let’s also assume Al Horford and Aaron Baynes pick up their 2019-2020 player options. Finally, we’ll assume the Celtics retain Terry Rozier through their unmatched qualifying offer via Rozier’s restricted free agency. These three scenarios are not only plausible, but possible. The roster might look familiar, but the salary cap situation might surprise you.

Six roster spots on the Boston Celtics are contractually-bound. Those six players – Gordon Hayward, Jason Tatum, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams – account for over $64 million, or 59% of the salary cap. If we add Horford and Baynes’ player options the salary cap climbs to over $100 million, or 92% of the salary cap. Finally, Rozier’s qualifying offer is nearly $4.3 million, however, the cap number would be nearly $9.2 million. Rozier’s contract would put the Boston Celtics salary cap over $109.9 million; the NBA salary cap is $109 million.

A Reasonable Roster

It’s clear after crunching the numbers the Celtics will be over the salary cap. The good news is the luxury tax is $132 million in 2019-2020, so ownership has the flexibility to sign their draft picks and perhaps take on a veteran minimum contract.

With the money essentially allocated the question becomes who actually fills out the Celtics roster in 2019-2020? With positions like shooting guard (Jaylen Brown), small forward (Gordon Hayward; Jason Tatum) and power forward/center (Al Horford; Aaron Baynes) set, the focus becomes point guard. Justin Mantegani wrote a great piece for Boston Sports Extra highlighting the need at point guard and possible solutions.

The Celtics are set at positions like small forward, center and shooting guard, begging the question: Who will play point guard for Boston?

The Need For Depth

Questions about the point guard position are pressing, no pun intended, but even more pressing is Boston’s depth. As it stands according to the aforementioned scenario, the Celtics would enter the 2019-2020 season with Smart and Baynes as their only reliable veteran bench players. The rest would comprise of Guerschon Yabusele, Robert Williams and the Celtics’ 2019 draft picks. Perhaps, instead of concentrating on landing marquee superstars, the focus should be acquiring veterans to help the Celtics young core.

The Celtics have budding young stars in Tatum and Brown. The team has veteran All-Stars in Hayward and Horford, and the heart of the team in Marcus Smart. Boston even has raw potential in Yabusele and Williams, not to mention their incoming draft picks. The biggest issue for the Celtics is depth, especially at the point guard position. With Boston’s star point guard Kyrie Irving all but gone, that’s where the focus needs to be.

Kyrie Irving Eligible for Super Max After Making All-NBA Team

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Irving makes second All-NBA team

Kyrie Irving was selected to the All-NBA second team yesterday, the first time Irving has been selected to the All-NBA second team. Irving was selected to the All-NBA third-team in 2014-2015 as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Irving received 52 second place votes and 39 third place votes for a total of 195 points; he received no first-place votes. Irving finished behind Houston Rockets guard James Harden (500 total points), Golden State Warriors guard Steph Curry (482 total points) and Portland Trailblazers Damian Lillard (306 total points).

Irving’s accolades make him eligible for the NBA Super Max contract, which will pay players like Chris Paul and John Wall over $40 million per year. Irving was named to the All-NBA second team in his eighth year of NBA service, and is entering the last year of his rookie max extension deal he signed with Cleveland in 2015-2016. This makes Irving eligible for the 5-year Super Max contract. Considering the incentives associated with this type of contract, Irving could stand to make nearly $250 million over the next five years.

The Boston Celtics situation looked a lot different when they signed Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward two years ago.

Can the Celtics Afford Irving?

Can the Celtics afford that? Do the Celtics want to afford that? I wrote about the issues Kyrie Irving and the Celtics ran into last year and it doesn’t seem promising. In fact, even other teams have expressed concern over signing Irving to a long, lucrative contract.

The salary cap in 2019 is $109 million; The salary cap increases to $118 million in 2020. The Super Max contract Irving is eligible for is worth 35% of the team salary cap, with 8% yearly kickers. Irving would stand to make $38.15 million in the first year of his contract; He would make $44.6 million in the second year and so on.

Team chemistry withstanding, the Boston Celtics can’t even afford to sign Kyrie Irving to the Super Max contract. Gordon Hayward, virtually un-tradeable after a gruesome leg injury a season ago, and his sluggish return this past season, will make $65 million over the next two seasons. Al Horford, the unsung leader and backbone of the Celtics, has a player option worth over $30 million due in 2019-2020. Horford may want to sign an extension with Boston, but that would only save the Celtics $10-15 million per year.

(Boston, MA, 11/01/17) The Celtics future with Kyrie Irving once looked bright. Pictured (left to right) are guards Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, forwards Al Horford, Daniel Theis, guards Terry Rozier and Kyrie Irving. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

Crunching the numbers

Let’s say the Boston Celtics were to sign Kyrie Irving to the Super Max contract for which he’s eligible. Even after considering salary cap increases, the contracts of Irving, Hayward and Horford would comprise nearly 92% of the team’s total salary cap; In 2020 Irving’s and Hayward’s contracts alone would comprise 67% of the salary cap. The luxury tax increases from $132 million to $143 million from 2019 to 2020. But even that inflated number would barely cover the three max contracts in addition to the requisite 7-10 role players. Besides, what owner is eager to pay luxury taxes? The salary cap numbers don’t even take the existing Celtics contracts into consideration. The numbers simply don’t crunch.

Irving has already talked about leaving Boston. And a player with Irving’s confidence likely assumed he’d earn All-NBA team honors in 2018-2019. In other words, Irving is prepared to leave an estimated $40-100 million on the table to sign with another team. Considering the issues the Celtics had with Irving this past season, compounded with the amount of money it will take to keep Irving around, it’s in the best interest of the Boston Celtics to keep that money on the table, too.

Kyrie Irving Leaves Boston Celtics Flat

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Time To Shine

Kyrie Irving hit one of the most iconic shots in NBA history, helping the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2016 NBA title. Unfortunately for Irving, the Cavaliers belonged to LeBron James. It may be difficult to remember when James could do no wrong for the Cavaliers, but not for Irving. James consistently received all the credit for wins and almost none of the blame for losses. That burden fell upon Cavaliers perimeter shooters, Kevin Love, or Irving.

As a result, a year later Irving forces a trade out of Cleveland and lands with the Boston Celtics. Irving expressed his desire to be a leader as the main reason he left Cleveland, and relished at his opportunity with Boston’s young core. The Celtics already had an All-Star veteran in Al Horford, and had recently-signed All-Star guard Gordon Hayward, both of which could take the pressure off of Irving.

The Celtics came close to the 2018 NBA Finals without Hayward, who missed the entire 2017-2018 season, and Irving, who missed the entire 2017-2018 playoffs. Irving seemed up for the challenge of reintegration. The hype entering the 2018-2019 season was overwhelming, and clearly premature.

Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens and Kyrie Irving were supposed to be a great match of young minds, but it hasn’t worked out that way so far.

Impending Free Agency

With Irving’s impending free agency looming, Kyrie got ahead of the situation and proclaimed he’d resign with the Celtics. Four months and several player-only meetings later, Irving tells reporters to “check with him on July 1^st”, indicating he has no intention of signing with the Celtics before the free agency deadline. It seems Irving was fed up with his role as the leader of a group of young stars.

Irving has thought the Earth is flat, which, suffice it to say, shows a serious lack of judgement. Is this a mindset of a max contract guy we want to make quick decisions and lead a young core?

(Boston, MA, 11/01/17) The Celtics including guards Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, forwards Al Horford, Daniel Theis, guards Terry Rozier and Kyrie Irving celebrate their 113-86 win against the Sacramento Kings at the TD Garden on Wednesday, November 1, 2017. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

The LeBron Effect

It was reported Irving sought LeBron James to apologize for his past behavior, which escalated the situation between Irving and the Celtics. Irving spoke about his conversation with James indicating he was now dealing with the same issues James dealt with. Irving was now a superstar dealing with young stars lacking the mental fortitude or the work ethic to win.

Irving’s perception is misguided, because LeBron James consistently won before, with, without and after playing with Irving. Besides, James never missed significant time with Cleveland, but when he was absent, it was obvious. The Cavaliers had a losing record without James. The Boston Celtics were 26-11 (.703) in two regular seasons without Irving.

FILE – In this Oct. 17, 2017, file photo, Cleveland Cavaliers’ LeBron James (23) tries to get past Boston Celtics’ Jaylen Brown (7) and Al Horford (42) in the second half of an NBA basketball game, in Cleveland. Although there were long stretches when it seemed impossible that the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics would meet in the Eastern Conference finals, theyíre set to clash for the third time in four years.(AP Photo/Tony Dejak, File) ORG XMIT: NY164

Moving Forward

The Celtics were competing in Game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals without Irving. This season the Celtics managed to lose in the second round of the playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks with Irving.

Don’t let Uncle Drew fool you with fancy dribbling and beautiful jump shots. The man behind the mask is Kyrie Irving, an immature contrarian more invested in his personal brand growth. Irving should be using his mercurial talent and veteran experience to lead these young Celtics to the next level. The record reflects your intuition: the Boston Celtics are better off without Kyrie Irving.