Author Archives: Scott Frizzell

About Scott Frizzell

I have lived in New Hampshire my entire life. Huge Boston sports fan with an emphasis on baseball and football. Love the history of baseball and I should be given a Hall of Fame vote to help them get it right. This is my first time writing for an audience, I appreciate any support from you guys.

How Will Tom Brady Share the Wealth?

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Tom Brady has a bevy of quality receivers at his disposal for this upcoming season. We all know Tom Brady is not only the best quarterback in the NFL, or even just the best quarterback in NFL history, but in fact the greatest being to ever grace this Earth with his presence. He will get everyone their looks, each receiver will have their day. But how can we expect those receptions to be split up?

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman #11 of the New England Patriots makes a catch during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on January 1, 2017 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Julian Edelman is the old standby at wide receiver. He is Tom Brady’s most trusted target. The two of them know what each other is thinking and Brady can rely on Edelman being where he is supposed to be. Edelman is 31 now and has been banged up in recent years, but he will still get fed. In his four years as a starter he has averaged 104 receptions per 16 games played. Problem is, he doesn’t usually play in all 16. With Cooks in the fold there is a chance we see a slight decline in targets this year, but I don’t think it will be much. If Edelman can stay on the field I would expect to see 90+ receptions from him again this year. About 6 receptions per game seems about right for him.

Brandin Cooks is the hardest to predict since he is the newcomer. Yes, he is coming to New England with Tom Brady, but he was already in a great offense in New Orleans. Also, with New Orleans he had less competition for targets. The Patriots are loaded with pass catchers, the Saints were mostly Cooks and Michael Thomas. Cooks averaged 81 catches the last two years for 1156 yards and 8 touchdowns. I know a lot of people are expecting huge things from Cooks, but I think that sounds about right for him again this year. He can help spread the field and open up more lanes underneath, he can also catch some of those short screen passes at the line and try to make something of them. But with 4 good wide receivers, a few pass catching backs and Rob Gronkowski I don’t see Cooks suddenly increasing his catch total. If anything goes up I think it will be his touchdown total.

Malcolm Mitchell is a good receiver, capable of starting on most teams. On the Patriots he is behind a wealth of others on the pecking order. He will keep a role in the offense however, provided he can stay healthy. Mitchell caught 32 passes and 4 touchdowns in his rookie season last year. He really came on late in the year though, catching 21 passes between weeks 9 and 12 while scoring all 4 of his touchdowns. He even caught 6 passes in the Super Bowl during the Pats late comeback. There will be some weeks where we don’t see much of Mitchell and others where he is thrown to quite a bit. I think the Patriots “3rd” wide receiver will be matchup based, Mitchell and Hogan both having their days in the sun. I’m thinking 40-45 receptions for Mitchell this year if he can stay on the field. He has had knee problems dating back to college. The larger likelihood is Mitchell winds up missing a few games and finishes closer to 35 receptions.

Chris Hogan is the forgotten man. After bringing Cooks into the fold people have seemingly forgotten about Chris Hogan. He had 38 catches last year for 680 yards, leading the league at 17.9 yards per catch. He then came up huge in the postseason with 17 catches in 3 games and 19.5 yards per catch. His play will be a bit sporadic, matchup based. Teams that are susceptible to the long ball Hogan will be given a lot of run. Teams beat more by good route running and shorter to medium range passes I think Mitchell will see the field more. Counting the playoffs Hogan had two 100 yard games and three 90 yard games last year. I expect his stats to be hit and miss again this year. 35 catches with 600 yards seems to be doable.

Danny Amendola is still around after taking a third pay cut to stay in New England. I don’t see him doing a whole lot though unless injuries ahead of him free up targets. If everyone stays healthy Amendola may fall short of 30 catches for the third time in five seasons.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski #87 of the New England Patriots makes the Broncos defenders look silly. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2011 (though he did play 15 two years ago). I see no reason why the Patriots wouldn’t scale back his snaps with all these other offensive weapons they have. There is no reason to risk injury by sending Gronk onto the field for 60, 70 snaps a game. They have another tight end who is also a good blocker, and they have plenty of good to great pass catchers. Gronkowski’s snaps should be limited in an effort to keep him healthy and playing through January. Due to this, I don’t see Gronk catching 70, 80 balls like he has in the past. If he can stay on the field for all 16 games maybe 65 catches, but that’s a big if given his history. The touchdowns should still be there regardless. When healthy Gronkowski is an unstoppable force, impossible to cover and dragging defenders down the field like a man playing amongst boys. In a full season double digit touchdowns is still likely, but I’d hope and expect his snap count is brought down this year.

Dwayne Allen was brought in to fill the Martellus Bennett role. He is a younger, cheaper version of Bennett. Biggest problem with him is he has missed games in each of the past 4 seasons. Hopefully he can stay on the field and take some pressure and snaps off of Gronkowski. Allen is a good blocker, but also has capable hands. He scored 8 touchdowns in 2014 and 6 last season. I see him still catching some touchdowns down near the goal line. Opposing defenses will focus on Gronkowski, or maybe on the run game, freeing up a lane for Allen to slip free unnoticed. For catches I see him in the 35 range, but coming with about 6 touchdowns. That’s if Gronk can stay healthy. If Gronk goes down we could see Allen creep up closer to Bennett’s 55 receptions from a year ago.

Running Backs

HOUSTON, TX – FEBRUARY 05: James White #28 of the New England Patriots with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl 51 at NRG Stadium on February 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The Patriots defeat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

James White is the main pass catching back. Honestly, that’s why he is here. He doesn’t make many guys miss and isn’t a huge threat as a runner. White is out there on the field to catch passes, create mismatches lined up against linebackers who can’t cover him. In fact, although he is a running back White has caught 35 more passes in his career than he has carries! He caught 60 balls a year ago and then added 18 more in the playoffs. He will still be the Patriots top receiving back, but they now have 4 capable runners who all have decent hands as well. They don’t have anyone like Legarrette Blount this year who has to be taken out on passing downs. All of them can catch the ball and make things happen. I see White’s receptions dropping some this year, maybe into the 45- 50 range.

Mike Gillislee has been assumed to be the main runner all offseason, and I think that will still be the case. However, the Patriots have always loved to play the matchups and I think each of their running backs will have their Sunday in the sun. Each will have a big game, but overall Gillislee probably leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He is also a capable pass catcher, so unlike with Blount last year it won’t be obvious the Patriots are running when their main back is in the game. I think he stays in the game and becomes a dump off option on passing plays, picking up 25-30 receptions.

Rex Burkhead is making some late noise in the competition for reps at running back. Burkhead was given a chance to start in week 17 last year with the Bengals and ran for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is in the same kind of mold as a Danny Woodhead, if he carves out a starting role over Mike Gillislee he could catch 40+ balls this season. As it stands now I expect Gillislee to get the most work, but I think Burkhead will have a couple big games. I have him pegged for 25 receptions, with the ability to corral a lot more with playing time.

Dion Lewis is the shiftiest of the Patriots running backs. He can make guys look downright silly out on the field when the ball is in his hands. Lewis gets banged up though and misses a lot of time, so it’s hard to envision him having a huge role. In 2014, Lewis caught 36 passes in only 7 games as the Patriots featured him a lot more that year. Given his injury history he won’t be as heavily used. However, he did manage to catch 17 passes last year in his 7 games after returning from injury. This leads me to believe Lewis will still have some sort of role. Even with the crowded backfield he could catch 2-3 balls per game.

What did Tony C lose on August 18, 1967?

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Fifty years ago today, Tony Conigliaro’s life changed forever. A Jack Hamilton fastball clocked him right in the eye, causing permanent retina damage. On this fiftieth anniversary of the beaning I want to take a look at his career so abruptly and brutally ended.

A brilliant rookie year

(Photo By The Denver Post via Getty Images)

In Conigliaro’s 1964 rookie season, at the age of 19, he hit 24 home runs in just 404 at-bats, the most home runs ever hit by a teenager. The next season he led the league with 32 home runs, at just 20 years old. Conigliaro reached star status before he could legally have a beer. He was the youngest American Leaguer ever to reach 100 career home runs. At the time of the beaning in August, 1967 Conigliaro had 104 career home runs.

Just imagine if…

I have no problem projecting that Tony Conigliaro would have hit 500 career home runs and been a Hall of Famer had this savage injury never occurred. The question for me — how many more than 500 did he have in him? At 22, he had ample room for growth and improvement in his game. Tony proved this in his 1970 season when he hit a career-high 36 home runs. Unfortunately, his eyesight continued to deteriorate.   By the next season, his baseball career came to an end.

Year Age Tm G PA AB H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
1964 19 BOS 111 444 404 117 24 52 .290 .354 .530 .883
1965 20 BOS 138 585 521 140 32 82 .269 .338 .512 .850
1966 21 BOS 150 628 558 148 28 93 .265 .330 .487 .817
1967 22 BOS 95 389 349 100 20 67 .287 .341 .519 .860
1968 Did Did Did Did Did Did Did Did Did Did Did
1969 24 BOS 141 566 506 129 20 82 .255 .321 .427 .748
1970 25 BOS 146 617 560 149 36 116 .266 .324 .498 .822
1971 26 CAL 74 292 266 59 4 15 .222 .285 .335 .620
1975 30 BOS 21 69 57 7 2 9 .123 .221 .246 .466
8 Yr 8 Yr 8 Yr 876 3590 3221 849 166 516 .264 .327 .476 .803
162 162 162 162 664 596 157 31 95 .264 .327 .476 .803

This is all creative conjecture, of course, but Conigliaro could have added roughly eight more home runs the rest of the 1967 season. By that point,  he averaged 35 home runs per 162 games played, per baseballreference.com. Take away some games played for injuries and rest days,  why couldn’t he hit 30 home runs a year? Adding in 30 home runs for his missed 1968 season, that bumps his career total to 142 at age 23.

I’m assuming his down 1969 season, when he hit .255 with 20 home runs, was caused by a combination of rust and poor eyesight. Take away these as if they never happened, and tack on 10 more home runs, he’d have 172 homers. I’ll leave his 1970 season of 36 alone since that was ultimately his career high. Through his age-25 season that would total 208 career home runs.

 

Compare with today’s lineup

By the way, Mookie Betts turns 25 this October.  He has 72 home runs. Jackie Bradley Jr. just broke out last year at age 27. At this same age, Tony Conigliaro had already hit 164 home runs, beaned, missed an entire season, made an amazing comeback and ultimately retired. Think about that for a second. Jackie Bradley is a young player just entering his prime.

Tony C’s career at the age of 25 was practically finished due to circumstances out of anyone’s control. There is no reason to think he couldn’t have continued as a perennial candidate to lead the league in home runs for the next eight to 10 years. His 162-game average at that stage of his career included 34 home runs, and he hadn’t necessarily hit his prime. A conservative estimate of 30 home runs per year for the next 8 seasons would give him 448 home runs. Factor in his young age and improving skills, I suspect he could have hit even more. He’d probably have some seasons in the upper 20’s, and he probably could have seasons where he reached and eclipsed 40 home runs. I’m slotting him at 35 home runs per year over the next eight seasons. That would give him a career total of 488 home runs through his age 33 season.

From there where do we go? It’s reasonable to expect a little decline maybe as he entered his mid-thirties. However, at 34 he would have some good baseball left.  The designated hitter came into effect in 1973. Conigliaro could have moved to DH somewhere along the line to keep him from getting injured in the field. I’m predicting that Tony C would have eclipsed the 500 home run mark in 1979 at the age of 34.

Sad end to a brilliant career cut short

Projecting for a little decline I estimate Tony at 30, 25 and 20 home runs in his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons. This would place him at 563 career home runs after 1981. At 36 years old he could still play and add to that total. By giving him just 30 home runs over the next two years he’d be at 593. If he was left just shy of 600 would he stick around another year to reach it? I’d say yes and ultimately project Tony C for just over 600 career home runs. At that time in history, the total would have placed him fourth on the all-time list.

Instead of chasing 600 home runs, Tony Conigliaro suffered a massive heart attack in 1982 at the age of 37. This heart attack was followed by a stroke that left him totally incapacitated until his death in 1990 at the age of 45. The story of Tony C is one of the most tragic stories that can be told. Hall of Fame career aside, a quality life for Tony all but evaporated by the age of 37. In all likelihood these health problems stemmed back to his being beaned by a baseball.

Can the Red Sox Make the World Series?

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Five things that need to happen for the Red Sox to win the World Series:

  1. David Price comes back healthy and finally wins a couple games in the postseason:

    Price has notoriously never won a playoff game.   If he could come back and pitch well that would be huge for the Sox. He needs to get the monkey off his back and win a playoff game, and in so doing he would go a long way towards shoring up the pitching staff. Drew Pomeranz has had a complete turnaround, but behind Chris Sale the Red Sox pitcher with ace capability is David Price. Having a healthy Price to follow Sale in rotation is ideally what the Red Sox need.

  2. Red Sox bats follow Rafael Devers’ and Eduardo Nunez’ example:

    Red Sox hitters were ineffective until the month of August. Struggling to find their way following David Ortiz’ retirement, the trade for Eduardo Nunez and the call up of Rafael Devers have helped spark their dormant bats. Halfway through the month of August the Red Sox have 19 home runs, only six less than they hit the entire month of July. They are on pace to hit more home runs this month than any month this season and their team OPS of .810 is the highest of any month. But through Monday night, Mookie Betts was hitting .220 in August, Hanley Ramirez .214, Xander Bogaerts .211 and Jackie Bradley .179. If the Red Sox can get everyone clicking they will be dangerous.

  3. Bullpen continues to perform:

    Despite all the talk of the Red Sox needing bullpen help, their relievers this year are 21-13 with a 3.03 ERA and better than a strike out per inning. But the Sox don’t have a shut-down reliever beyond Craig Kimbrel.  Dominant as ever this year, Kimbrel’s stats speak for themselves:  striking out an insane 16.56 batters per nine innings while allowing just eight earned runs in 50 innings. All other Red Sox relievers are having solid seasons, but just not comparable. Does anyone have faith come playoff time the other relievers can hold down the fort?  That might just be a key to them winning the World Series. The Red Sox need their middle relievers and setup men to continue pitching well.

  4. Catcher Defense:

    The Red Sox have two excellent catchers who can control the running game. Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon have combined to throw out 29 would-be base stealers this season at a 35.8% rate. Vazquez stands fifth in the league in caught stealing percentage at 37.2%. Keeping opposing baserunners honest and not allowing them to take the extra bases has proved daunting for the Red Sox in recent seasons. In the playoffs, where every run seems to have amplified meaning, holding runners at first could be an underrated key.

  5. NO MORE PABLO SANDOVAL! :

    Does this one even need an explanation?

Year Age Tm Lg G PA WAR oWAR dWAR Salary
2015 28 BOS AL 126 505 -0.9 0.3 -0.9 $17,600,000
2016 29 BOS AL 3 7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 $17,600,000
2017 30 BOS AL 32 108 -1.1 -0.3 -0.8 $17,600,000
SFG SFG SFG 877 3562 20.7 20.6 0.8 $18,516,750
BOS BOS BOS 161 620 -2.2 -0.1 -1.7 $52,800,000

Five things that could go wrong

  1. Rotational depth isn’t strong enough in postseason:

    If David Price can’t get healthy the Red Sox rotation is solid, but not as strong as they would like for postseason play. What if David Price doesn’t pitch again this year? What if he comes back and can’t stand up, getting lit up a couple times? Without him, Drew Pomeranz and Rick Porcello have to be the numbers two and three for the playoffs, and I’m not sure they match up. Pomeranz has been great this year, but he doesn’t pitch deep into games. Pomeranz also had never thrown 100 innings before last year; will he wear down come playoff time? Rick Porcello just has not been very good this year with an ERA over 4.50. Those two would look a lot better behind Sale and a healthy Price.

  2. Dustin Pedroia doesn’t heal:

    Dustin Pedroia has been bothered by left knee inflammation for a couple weeks now. He came back from a disabled list stint to play in only one game before returning to the DL. By the sounds of things we won’t see him anytime too soon. Pedroia is the only season-long regular on the Red Sox with a batting average over .300 (.303). He also plays Gold Glove defense at second base, something his replacements most certainly do not. Hopefully Pedroia will heal up with a couple weeks off.  But if his knee gives him problems the rest of this season, the Sox will be without a team leader on the field.

  3. The bullpen implodes:

    This is something that seems to be the fear of all Red Sox fans. The bullpen has performed well this year, but without any lock-down guy beyond Craig Kimbrel can the bullpen hold up their end of the bargain down the stretch and come playoff time? I liked the Addison Reed trade, low-risk move for a setup man who has had a couple good years. However, he was another guy I do not trust added to the bullpen. I tweeted at the time of the trade I would not be surprised if he went full blown Eric Gagne circa 2007.

    The Red Sox traded for Gagne that year to solidify the bullpen.  He came over with a 2.16 ERA for Texas. Gagne posted a 6.75 ERA the rest of that season for the Sox. Unfortunately so far Reed hasn’t alleviated my concerns, allowing five runs in 4.1 innings pitched since the trade. Joe Kelly also hasn’t looked the same since coming back from the disabled list. The Red Sox could use him pitching like he did in May and June when he did not allow a single run.

  4. Rafael Devers and Eduardo Nunez slow down:

    Nunez and Devers have given the Red Sox offense a shot in the arm since they have arrived. Through Monday they had a combined 10 home runs between the two of them in just 130 at bats. Realistically though, Nunez isn’t going to bat near .400, and we can’t count on a 20 year old hitting with the best in all of baseball for the rest of the year. If and when they slow down, are other Red Sox stars going to step up their games and take the reins? Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez are all having down seasons. If they don’t make a move once others slow down the Red Sox might go back to hitting like they did in July.

  5. John Farrell:

    Many fans, myself included, are not the biggest John Farrell supporters. He routinely makes questionable decisions in games, leaving in certain pitchers too long, bringing in relievers in questionable situations, not pinch-hitting in obvious situations, etc. Will his game management help cost the Red Sox the World Series? He did his best in 2013, game three to be exact, but that’s another story.  Then again, maybe Farrell gets them to play better late in the year. Last year the Red Sox were one of the hottest teams down the stretch, and they seem to be trending that way again this year having won 11 of their last 12. Ninety percent of managing seems to be handling the personalities and keeping everyone in line and happy. You watch any manager enough and you will question plenty of moves they make.

Sox Rookies Lead the Way in New York

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The Red Sox bounced back after possibly the toughest loss of the year Friday night to take both games over the weekend. The Sox, now 5.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the East, were led by the play of rookies Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers.  Benintendi homered three times and drove in nine runners over the weekend series. His two three-run shots during Saturday’s win propelled the team to their 10-5 victory. Not only that, all of his home runs were rockets, making it out of the stadium in the blink of an eye. In Sunday’s game, Benintendi came up with the bases loaded in the 10th and delivered with the game winning hit to right field.

Devers, the 20-year-old- baby faced third baseman, collected the biggest hit of the weekend. With two strikes, facing a fellow lefty and the hardest thrower in the game, Aroldis Chapman, Devers connected for a home run to the opposite field. The pitch was clocked at 102.8 MPH, the fastest recorded pitch hit for a home run.

http://<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Rafael Devers home run was off a 102.8 MPH pitch…. Hardest pitch hit for a HR… Welp ever in the tracked velocity era. (2008)</p>&mdash; Daren Willman (@darenw) <a href=”https://twitter.com/darenw/status/896929237545832449″>August 14, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Impressive only begins to describe the game-tying home run on the biggest stage. Up again in the 10th with the bases full, Devers hit a missile to left field that turned Brett Gardner around. Gardner was able to hang with it and make the catch, but it was another illustration of Devers’ ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. The day before, Devers connected on a lined shot that hit off the center field wall for a double. In New York, Devers picked up four hits and is now batting .328 after having spent only nine games in Pawtucket.

With these two rookies, at 23 and 20 years old, I am excited to see what the future holds for them in Boston. Benintendi has been getting Fred Lynn comparisons all year long. Lynn was on a Hall of Fame path before leaving the Red Sox in free agency.  If Benintendi can play like Freddy did in Boston, this should be fun. As for Devers, at 20 years old and having hit at every level of the minors despite being young at each stop, the Major Leagues has not slowed him down. I hope he doesn’t get too much pressure put on him at such a young age and can stay within himself. His future in the big leagues looks like a potential perennial all-star at third base.