Tag Archives: Chris Hogan

On to Pittsburgh

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Wow, that game was awful. Another loss down in Miami and an ugly showing by the Patriots to fall one game behind the Steelers heading into next week’s match-up. Despite what the scoreboard said, this might have been the ugliest game the Patriots have played all season. Kenyan Drake ran wild and Jay Cutler was routinely hitting open receivers. Then you have the 0-11 on 3rd downs. 0-11! This was the Patriots’ first game since a 24-10 loss to the Phoenix Cardinals in Week 5 of 1991 where they failed to convert on third down. That team was quarterbacked by the legendary Hugh Millen. Based on how the offense looked last night, I think Millen may have been on the field again.

Why This Might Not Be a Bad Thing

Hear me out; yes the Patriots looked terrible and fell behind Pittsburgh in the standings. If the Patriots win this coming week, they jump back ahead due to head-to-head tiebreaker, so they control their own destiny. I don’t think it’s a bad thing to drop a game late in the year. The Patriots were just humbled, shown they are not invincible by a very mediocre team. Moving forward, maybe they approach each game with more meaning. I’ve always thought since 2007 the Patriots would have been better off dropping that regular season game to the Giants. As it stands, the Patriots eight game winning streak came to an end; they know they are not indestructible. But again, they just won eight straight, this is a good team, don’t look into this loss too much.

Moving Forward

The Steelers better watch out. Coming off an embarrassing loss, the Patriots will likely be firing on all cylinders next week with home field on the line. The Patriots have typically played well coming off a loss during the Belichick-Brady era. I expect this coming week to be no different. The Patriots have won four straight matchups with the Steelers and eight of the last ten. During that four game streak the Patriots have averaged 34 points per game. Over those previous ten games, including the losses, they have averaged 30 points per game. They have historically had the Steelers number. One of the losses came with Matt Cassel at quarterback in 2008.

In addition to those factors, Rob Gronkowski will be back. At least part of the reason the Patriots offense was all out of sorts was the absence of Gronk. Gronk is so hard to cover that defenders have to hold him constantly to stay with him, and oftentimes are allowed to do so by the refs. With 849 yards and 7 touchdowns on the season, Gronkowski is a huge part of what the Patriots do on offense. Gronk has also played five games against the Steelers and averaged 99 yards per game while scoring eight times.

Another positive on the offensive side of the ball is Chris Hogan. Yes, he only had 1 catch for 1 yard this week, but the whole offense was out of sync. Hogan himself was just coming back after missing over a month. He was also limited in practice all week leading up to the game. With a full game back under his belt, I think Hogan will be up to speed and ready to contribute more.

Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots celebrates after scoring his third touchdown of the game in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers September 10, 2015 (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

 The Steelers

The thing working in the Steelers favor is they have a home game. The Steelers have been a much better home team over the last couple years. Their offense is lethal at home, but only mediocre on the road. Roethlisberger has thrown 64 more yards per game at home than on the road so far this year, while tossing four more touchdowns in one less game. Last year he averaged 81 more yards per game at home while throwing 20 touchdowns there as opposed to only nine on the road. Taking this back to the beginning of the 2015 season, Ben Roethlisberger has played 18 home games and 21 road games. During that time he has averaged 64.5 more passing yards while playing at home. He has also thrown 50 touchdowns versus 19 interceptions at home, 24 touchdowns against 23 interceptions on the road. It is clear this offense is dangerous at home.

What to Expect

I think the Patriots offense will come out clicking. Brady will be firing on all cylinders while they effectively mix in runs with Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. I predict the Patriots will score on their first drive of the game and not look back. The Steelers will do some scoring of their own to stay within striking distance, with a late field goal bringing them within one possession.

Patriots 34  Steelers  27

How Will Tom Brady Share the Wealth?

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Tom Brady has a bevy of quality receivers at his disposal for this upcoming season. We all know Tom Brady is not only the best quarterback in the NFL, or even just the best quarterback in NFL history, but in fact the greatest being to ever grace this Earth with his presence. He will get everyone their looks, each receiver will have their day. But how can we expect those receptions to be split up?

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman #11 of the New England Patriots makes a catch during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on January 1, 2017 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Julian Edelman is the old standby at wide receiver. He is Tom Brady’s most trusted target. The two of them know what each other is thinking and Brady can rely on Edelman being where he is supposed to be. Edelman is 31 now and has been banged up in recent years, but he will still get fed. In his four years as a starter he has averaged 104 receptions per 16 games played. Problem is, he doesn’t usually play in all 16. With Cooks in the fold there is a chance we see a slight decline in targets this year, but I don’t think it will be much. If Edelman can stay on the field I would expect to see 90+ receptions from him again this year. About 6 receptions per game seems about right for him.

Brandin Cooks is the hardest to predict since he is the newcomer. Yes, he is coming to New England with Tom Brady, but he was already in a great offense in New Orleans. Also, with New Orleans he had less competition for targets. The Patriots are loaded with pass catchers, the Saints were mostly Cooks and Michael Thomas. Cooks averaged 81 catches the last two years for 1156 yards and 8 touchdowns. I know a lot of people are expecting huge things from Cooks, but I think that sounds about right for him again this year. He can help spread the field and open up more lanes underneath, he can also catch some of those short screen passes at the line and try to make something of them. But with 4 good wide receivers, a few pass catching backs and Rob Gronkowski I don’t see Cooks suddenly increasing his catch total. If anything goes up I think it will be his touchdown total.

Malcolm Mitchell is a good receiver, capable of starting on most teams. On the Patriots he is behind a wealth of others on the pecking order. He will keep a role in the offense however, provided he can stay healthy. Mitchell caught 32 passes and 4 touchdowns in his rookie season last year. He really came on late in the year though, catching 21 passes between weeks 9 and 12 while scoring all 4 of his touchdowns. He even caught 6 passes in the Super Bowl during the Pats late comeback. There will be some weeks where we don’t see much of Mitchell and others where he is thrown to quite a bit. I think the Patriots “3rd” wide receiver will be matchup based, Mitchell and Hogan both having their days in the sun. I’m thinking 40-45 receptions for Mitchell this year if he can stay on the field. He has had knee problems dating back to college. The larger likelihood is Mitchell winds up missing a few games and finishes closer to 35 receptions.

Chris Hogan is the forgotten man. After bringing Cooks into the fold people have seemingly forgotten about Chris Hogan. He had 38 catches last year for 680 yards, leading the league at 17.9 yards per catch. He then came up huge in the postseason with 17 catches in 3 games and 19.5 yards per catch. His play will be a bit sporadic, matchup based. Teams that are susceptible to the long ball Hogan will be given a lot of run. Teams beat more by good route running and shorter to medium range passes I think Mitchell will see the field more. Counting the playoffs Hogan had two 100 yard games and three 90 yard games last year. I expect his stats to be hit and miss again this year. 35 catches with 600 yards seems to be doable.

Danny Amendola is still around after taking a third pay cut to stay in New England. I don’t see him doing a whole lot though unless injuries ahead of him free up targets. If everyone stays healthy Amendola may fall short of 30 catches for the third time in five seasons.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski #87 of the New England Patriots makes the Broncos defenders look silly. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2011 (though he did play 15 two years ago). I see no reason why the Patriots wouldn’t scale back his snaps with all these other offensive weapons they have. There is no reason to risk injury by sending Gronk onto the field for 60, 70 snaps a game. They have another tight end who is also a good blocker, and they have plenty of good to great pass catchers. Gronkowski’s snaps should be limited in an effort to keep him healthy and playing through January. Due to this, I don’t see Gronk catching 70, 80 balls like he has in the past. If he can stay on the field for all 16 games maybe 65 catches, but that’s a big if given his history. The touchdowns should still be there regardless. When healthy Gronkowski is an unstoppable force, impossible to cover and dragging defenders down the field like a man playing amongst boys. In a full season double digit touchdowns is still likely, but I’d hope and expect his snap count is brought down this year.

Dwayne Allen was brought in to fill the Martellus Bennett role. He is a younger, cheaper version of Bennett. Biggest problem with him is he has missed games in each of the past 4 seasons. Hopefully he can stay on the field and take some pressure and snaps off of Gronkowski. Allen is a good blocker, but also has capable hands. He scored 8 touchdowns in 2014 and 6 last season. I see him still catching some touchdowns down near the goal line. Opposing defenses will focus on Gronkowski, or maybe on the run game, freeing up a lane for Allen to slip free unnoticed. For catches I see him in the 35 range, but coming with about 6 touchdowns. That’s if Gronk can stay healthy. If Gronk goes down we could see Allen creep up closer to Bennett’s 55 receptions from a year ago.

Running Backs

HOUSTON, TX – FEBRUARY 05: James White #28 of the New England Patriots with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl 51 at NRG Stadium on February 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The Patriots defeat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

James White is the main pass catching back. Honestly, that’s why he is here. He doesn’t make many guys miss and isn’t a huge threat as a runner. White is out there on the field to catch passes, create mismatches lined up against linebackers who can’t cover him. In fact, although he is a running back White has caught 35 more passes in his career than he has carries! He caught 60 balls a year ago and then added 18 more in the playoffs. He will still be the Patriots top receiving back, but they now have 4 capable runners who all have decent hands as well. They don’t have anyone like Legarrette Blount this year who has to be taken out on passing downs. All of them can catch the ball and make things happen. I see White’s receptions dropping some this year, maybe into the 45- 50 range.

Mike Gillislee has been assumed to be the main runner all offseason, and I think that will still be the case. However, the Patriots have always loved to play the matchups and I think each of their running backs will have their Sunday in the sun. Each will have a big game, but overall Gillislee probably leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He is also a capable pass catcher, so unlike with Blount last year it won’t be obvious the Patriots are running when their main back is in the game. I think he stays in the game and becomes a dump off option on passing plays, picking up 25-30 receptions.

Rex Burkhead is making some late noise in the competition for reps at running back. Burkhead was given a chance to start in week 17 last year with the Bengals and ran for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is in the same kind of mold as a Danny Woodhead, if he carves out a starting role over Mike Gillislee he could catch 40+ balls this season. As it stands now I expect Gillislee to get the most work, but I think Burkhead will have a couple big games. I have him pegged for 25 receptions, with the ability to corral a lot more with playing time.

Dion Lewis is the shiftiest of the Patriots running backs. He can make guys look downright silly out on the field when the ball is in his hands. Lewis gets banged up though and misses a lot of time, so it’s hard to envision him having a huge role. In 2014, Lewis caught 36 passes in only 7 games as the Patriots featured him a lot more that year. Given his injury history he won’t be as heavily used. However, he did manage to catch 17 passes last year in his 7 games after returning from injury. This leads me to believe Lewis will still have some sort of role. Even with the crowded backfield he could catch 2-3 balls per game.