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NFL Week 13 Key Match-Ups: Which AFC North Team Must Win to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13 features one of the best rivalries in football. The Bengals and Steelers have had a few chippy match-ups over the past few years. The most memorable was their 2015 wildcard game. That game was all but over and it looked like Cincinnati was about to notch their first playoff win since 1991. Not so fast though. With the lead and the ball and under two minutes remaining after a Landry Jones interception, Cincy coughed it right back up thanks to a Jeremy Hill fumble. Then stupid penalties by Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones allowed Pittsburgh to move deep into Cincy territory and kick a game-winning 35-yard field goal. Yeah, we all remember that one.

Anyways, this game is an absolute must win for the Bengals. They are very quietly still in playoff contention after back to back wins to improve to 5-6. I think many people have forgotten about the Bengals due to their poor start, but they are the same team that has been rather consistent in recent history. Cincy has finished with at least ten wins four out of the last five seasons. If you take a look, their roster looks very similar to the team that went 12-4 just two years ago. They still have their core players on both sides of the ball such as Carlos Dunlap, Adam Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Andy Dalton and AJ Green as well as head coach Marvin Lewis. Their unlikely run at the playoffs will begin with a big win at home vs Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, I think Cincy will play a decent game, but come up short: 23-20 Pittsburgh.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

You have to love this match up. Arguably the best defense in the league travels south to visit one of the league’s hottest offenses. Minnesota has allowed 19 points or less in eight of their eleven games this season. Atlanta’s offense is returning to 2016 form after a slow start, averaging about 32 points over their last three games. Something will have to give this week. Minnesota is likely in position to win the division, but a big road win in Atlanta would make it nearly impossible for Detroit to catch them. The stakes are much higher for Atlanta (7-4). The Falcons are a game back from New Orleans and Carolina, who play each other this week. If they do not pull off the win this week, winning the NFC South will become a very tall task. Not feeling overly confident in choosing a winner in this one but I think Matty Ice will do just enough to pull off a close win: 24-23 Atlanta.

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Intriguing game here, divisional foes with identical 8-3 records are facing off. Tied at the top of what has been the best division in football this year. New Orleans and Carolina already played once this year in a game that Drew Brees and company embarrassed Carolina at home, handing them a 34-13 beat down. That was back when Alvin Kamara had a much smaller role and was not running haywire on every defense in his way. I think New Orleans will come out on top and sweep the season series: 27-17 Saints.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

Absolute gem of a Sunday night game. Philly travels out west as they will try to snatch the NFC torch from Seattle. Seattle has reigned in the NFC over the past five years but it appears Wentzylvania has seen enough. Despite a plethora of injuries for Seattle this will still be a true test for the Eagles. If there is a team in the league that just will not quit, it is the Seahawks. Do not think a few key injuries are going to influence them to throw in the towel on the season. They will show up to play and try to prove to the rest of the league that the NFC is still ruled by the legion of boom, even if the legion of boom is currently in a body cast. Also, Seahawk pride aside, Seattle is right in the mix of the playoff race. They are currently in 7th in the NFC but with the two teams currently one game ahead of Seattle facing one another this weekend, Seattle knows a win could situate them into one of those two spots and also allow them to stay within striking distance of the Rams. Unfortunately for Seattle, I think their banged-up secondary will not be strong enough to contain Wentz and company: 27-20 Eagles.

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Other Key Games This Week in the AFC

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We’ll be locked in on New England at Buffalo, but let’s take a peak at some other intriguing games from the AFC this week.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Monday night is a pivotal game for the Bengals’ playoff hopes as they host their arch-rivals. The Steelers come into Cincinnati rolling right along on a six-game winning streak. They won the previous meeting 29-14 in Pittsburgh back in October.

The Bengals are 5-6, a game behind Baltimore and Buffalo in the wild card race. A loss will put their playoff hopes on life support. Last week in a win against the hapless Brown, Cincy finally got their running game going as rookie Joe Mixon recorded 114 yards.

They will need more of that in order to sustain drives keeping Pittsburgh’s powerful offense off the field. They also will look to exploit Pittsburgh’s inability to prevent big plays. Week after week, the Steelers have been sneaky bad on defense. Even quarterbacks like Jacoby Brissett and Brett Hundley have hit on multiple deep passes against Pittsburgh. Where the Steelers have been strong is in short yardage situations and against the run in general.

Where Pittsburgh is not struggling is obvious. Le’Veon Bell may be the best running back in the NFL; Antonio Brown may be the best player in the NFL. The Bengals are tough to run on, but have been beaten through the air. Good luck with #84.

Houston at Tennessee

Who scored the most points in one game this season? Houston. The first time the Texans and the Titans played seems like a lifetime ago. Deshaun Watson was a tremendous story early in the season, no doubt on pace to be rookie-of-the-year. But Watson tore his ACL. Enter Tom Savage and a rash of other injuries and this season has become a nightmare for Bill O’Brien and the Texans.

Tennessee is 7-4 but does not have the look of a team that can compete for anything more than a division championship this season. Marcus Mariota has been throwing an increasing number of interceptions and the Titans barely scraped out wins over the likes of Cleveland and Indianapolis. Still, with a favorable schedule ahead of them and a season-ending home game vs. Jacksonville, the Titans have it all in front of them.

Look for the Titans to ride their running game against the banged-up Houston defense.

Kansas City at New York

Anyone who saw these teams in September would have told you that their December meeting would be a lopsided conquest for KC. But a season in the NFL is a long haul.

The Chiefs have lost five out of their last six games. Their offense has played with anemia. In the last two weeks they’ve especially faltered as they’ve scored just one touchdown and a combined 19 points against the Giants and Bills. They obviously have to get back to establishing Kareem Hunt on the ground early and often. In fact, that is when Alex Smith is at his best – when he is not relied on to make the big plays. When Hunt is gaining yards in chunks, it allows Smith to get comfortable and find Travis Kelce his favorite target.

The Jets are just 4-7 but have actually exceeded expectations in their effort and performance. Other than an early season debacle at Oakland, the Jets have been in every game. The fact is, however, Josh McCown is Josh McCown and his fourth quarter play has cost the Jets multiple times this season.

Expect another very competitive game this week unless the “playoff” Chiefs get their mojo back. On paper, this should be one-sided. In reality, it likely won’t be.

 

Brandon Fazzolari is a Super Bowl expert…@spot_Bills