Tag Archives: closer

Projecting the Opening Day Roster

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Based off of the quiet offseason Boston has had, many fans may think the transactions may be far from done. It is still possible that Dombrowski goes and resigns Craig Kimbrel, and it’s also possible he cooks up a trade to bring in a reliever. That aside, the roster is all but set. A couple guys are going to be fighting for jobs in March and that will be very interesting to watch. Without further ado, this is the best projection I have for what the 25 man roster might look like on April 9th vs. Toronto.

Catchers (2)

Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart (starter in bold):

This is a three horse race for two jobs. Somehow Boston went all of 2018 with three catchers on their roster and it never really hurt them. They were never down a utility bat or a pitcher in the bullpen due to having three catchers, so they got away with it. 2019 won’t be the same case. Dombrowski has already said they want to make a move, with any of the three catchers available.

Sandy Leon is likely going to be the odd man out. If the Red Sox don’t find a suitor for him on the trade market, he’ll likely see himself cut before opening day. Personally, I would keep Leon to backup Vazquez (who’s bound to bounce back) and use Swihart as trade bait, but hey that’s just me.

Infielders (7)

Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce, Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers:

This situation isn’t as cloudy as the one behind the dish. The left side of the infield is locked in. Raffy will look to make strides at third while Xander head into a contract year at short. Dustin Pedroia will start at second, barring any setbacks with his knee. If he isn’t good to go for opening day I would give Brock the nod over Nunez at second. Then we turn to first base where there isn’t one starter, as it’s more of a platoon situation. Mitch Moreland is my projected opening day starter, since Marcus Stroman is likely to start for Toronto and he’s a righty. Steve Pearce is more than capable to hit against righties, but will likely start the season facing mostly left-handed opponents.

Outfielders (3)

Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts:

With J.D. essentially serving as the DH/fourth outfielder, the Red Sox will only carry three natural outfielders on their roster. This was the case in 2018, and worked better than anyone could have imagined. J.D. was able to fill in the outfield at various times to give some of these guys a day off here and there, and will look to do the same in 2019.

The key part for this outfield this season is how they all blossom. Can Mookie Betts repeat his MVP caliber season? Can JBJ find a consistent bat and carry over his success from October? Can Andrew Benintendi take the next step towards being an MVP candidate-type player?

Designated Hitter (1)

J.D. Martinez:

Unfortunately if you came here hoping to see Allen Craig, or Rusney Castillo, you are going to be highly disappointed. The only man for this job is Julio Daniel. Martinez had an MVP level season in 2018, and now has a chance to repeat it in 2019 and possibly opt out after this season. This will be a huge season on many fronts for future salaries for these Red Sox players and for the front office. Seeing if J.D. regresses or not is going to be a huge factor to whether he opts in or opts out following 2019. However, J.D. is the man, has a relentless approach, and is always trying to get better. I think he’s due for more of the same in 2018.

Rotation (5)

Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez:

The rotation for Boston is five deep. They are loaded and nobody seems to talk about it. Everyone wants to talk about Severino/Paxton/Tanaka in New York or Corbin/Scherzer/Strasburg in Washington. Both sets of trios are certainly worthy of being the best in baseball. As far as the entire rotation goes, Boston might take the cake. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are all legit studs at this point. Price and Eovaldi will likely carry over to 2019 the huge postseasons they had. You know exactly what you’re going to get from Rick Porcello, 190 innings and an ERA around 4. The biggest wild card is Eduardo Rodriguez. If he can finally stay healthy and put together a full season, he could really breakout as an All-Star caliber pitcher in this league.

Rodriguez

Bullpen (7)

Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, Steven Wright, Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson:

This is the only segment of this article that can still drastically change. Not only are their outside factors still affecting it (Kimbrel, trade, etc.) but there also internal competitions. At least two pitchers who pitched a significant portion of innings in 2018 for Boston could be sent packing after Spring Training, possibly more if another external option joins the club.

Matt Barnes is a lock, and in this scenario, would be my choice for the closer. I’m still hopeful on Kimbrel coming back on a reasonable deal, but for now, Barnes in the ninth. The other locks, Brasier, Hembree, Wright and Johnson. Brasier is the Red Sox second best reliever as of right now. Hembree and Wright both showed their value at times last season, and have earned spots in the bullpen in 2019 barring injury. Brian Johnson is the lefty out in the pen, so I also believe he’s a lock to make this team.

Then we turn to a few names competing for two spots. Workman and Velazquez have the spots in my books, but Tyler Thornburg, Bobby Poyner, and Colten Brewer will also compete for those two jobs. A couple other names I’d keep on eye on, depending on their spring performance, Carson Smith, Marcus Walden, William Cuevas and the kid, Durbin Feltman.

If Craig Kimbrel were to sign, or another reliever was brought in, I believe Workman is the pitcher who gets pumped from this 25 man roster. A lot of things could change on this list, but for the most part this is what the roster is going to look like going into 2019. Looks fairly similar to a roster that didn’t do half bad in 2018.

A Cheaper Closing Option

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As the Red Sox struggle to avoid massive penalties from the luxury tax, the question of who will be the team’s closer remains. Many of the top free agent relief pitchers have already been signed. Craig Kimbrel is still on the market, but the contract he would command would be much larger than the Red Sox will go. Ideally, the Red Sox could find a cheap closing option to avoid even stiffer penalties than they already face.

The Early Years

Greg Holland was once one of the most dominant late-inning bullpen options in the game. His rookie season of 2011 he went 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The next season he went 7-4 and saved 16 games as he morphed into the closer’s role in Kansas City.

Over the next two seasons, Holland was as good as anyone. Between 2013 and 2014 he saved 93 games. He had a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over that two year stretch and struck out 13.4 batters per nine innings. The results were staggering.

Holland faded a bit in 2015 but still put up serviceable numbers. It was then revealed that he needed Tommy John Surgery, which may have explained some of his drop-off in production.

Post Tommy John Surgery

The days of Holland being one of the best closer’s in baseball may be a thing of the past, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good one. Fresh off his Tommy John Surgery and missing the entire 2016 season, Holland signed with the Colorado Rockies. Probably not the best place to sign for someone coming off an arm surgery. Nevertheless, Holland was an All-Star for them.

In 2017, Holland led the National League with 41 games saved. He had a solid 1.15 WHIP and 11 strike outs per nine innings. Not quite what he was in his best years, but certainly effective. His ERA of 3.61 doesn’t tell the whole story. At the end of July, after four months of pitching, Holland had a 1.64 ERA. Opponents were batting just .169 against him with a .268 on-base percentage and .262 slugging percentage. His numbers weren’t far off from his dominant seasons.

Holland was far more hittable from that point forward, but you must remember, he hadn’t pitched in over a year following surgery. On top of that, he was pitching in Coors Field and the high altitude of Denver, Colorado. The high altitude has been known to put extra stress on a pitcher’s arm. He likely was just running out of a gas.

The Ups and Downs of 2018

2018 tells the story of why Holland can likely be had on the cheap. He turned down the Rockies contract offer and hit the open market. Many players remained unsigned late into the offseason, and it seemed to affect the pitcher’s the most. Holland did not sign until March 31st, missing the entire Spring Training. This likely threw him out of whack and had a huge detriment on his pitching.

Holland was a total disaster for the Cardinals. Over 25 innings he walked as many batters as he struck out (22). He was extremely hittable, allowing 12.2 hits per nine innings. His previous career high since his 15-game stint in 2010 was under eight hits per nine. His ERA and WHIP were unsightly, at 7.92 and 2.24. Nothing went right in St. Louis. As a result, he was ultimately released on August 1st.

When the Nationals picked him up on the cheap later that month, they got the Holland of old. In 24 appearances in DC, Holland allowed just two runs on nine hits. He was 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings. Those results are much more what people had come to expect from Greg Holland. Leading us into this offseason, where he comes off a mixed bag of a season.

Greg Holland of the Washington Nationals pitches in the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on August 17, 2018(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Conclusion

Is Holland going to be one of the best closers in all of baseball? No, probably not. But he was still an All-Star and led the league in saves just two years ago. After not having a normal offseason, and no spring training last year, he did not have a peak performance. However, with a change of scenery, he looked like the Greg Holland he used to be. Therefore, it would seem likely that if he were to sign a contract earlier in the offseason this year, that team would likely be getting a good pitcher for the back end of their bullpen.

Currently, the Red Sox don’t have anyone with closing experience on their roster. The top candidates on the roster to close at the moment appear to be either Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier. Barnes has been a relatively effective setup man, but he isn’t one of the best in the game. Brasier on the other hand has very little experience, and was on the verge of retirement last offseason. The Red Sox could use a guy with experience on the team, and Holland could maybe be just as good as Craig Kimbrel was last year for far less money.

Holland is likely searching for a one-year deal to restore his value. He will want to have a good season and enter free agency again next offseason coming off a good year, looking for one final big payday. The Red Sox should jump.

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The Closer Option Nobody is Talking About

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Add Adam Ottavino to the list of potential closers who are now elsewhere. Even worse, Ottavino is leaving Colorado and heading to the Bronx. The list is now significantly smaller than the one we began the offseason with. Along with Ottavino; Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera are all signed. Kimbrel is likely out of the Sox’ current plans, and the in-house closer candidates are limited. However, there is still a name on the free agent market that does entice me. The move is definitely one I could see the Red Sox making now.

A familiar face in the American League East, Brad Brach made his way into a playoff race last season with the Atlanta Braves. He had struggled in 2018 with Baltimore up to the point of the trade. However, he kicked it into another gear in ATL. His BB/9 came down an entire walk after his trade, as he seemed to find the control that made him dominant in years past.

Between 2013 and 2017, Brach averaged an ERA under three, with four of those five years coming in the gruelling American League East. He’s coming off a solid renaissance in Atlanta, but still won’t command a large salary at all. He’s a year younger than Ottavino, but he also doesn’t have one season as dominant as Ottavino’s 2018. However, the large body of work would say that Brach could be just as effective.

Ottavino has a career 3.68 ERA and a nice, round WHIP of 1.30 over 366 games. Brad Brach meanwhile has a 3.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27 over 424 games. Ottavino reportedly had tons of suitors, so why isn’t the market for Brach the same? Brach has better numbers, over a longer period of time as well. He also has postseason experience (1.80 ERA in 5 games) and has 30 saves over the last two seasons.

For whatever reason, he hasn’t had a tenth of the market that Ottavino had. The Red Sox should capitalize on that. A one or a two year deal with a mutual option would benefit both sides short-term. The money wouldn’t be much more than the 5.1 million he earned in 2018.

He’s a closer that costs around 10 million dollars, and has no long-term economic impacts on the payroll. That should be one that the Red Sox should have jumped all over months ago.

The Greatest Red Sox Legends by Uniform Number: 46-50

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The players stay strong as we move through the end of the forties and into the fifties.  The best players to wear the uniform numbers between 46 and 50 all played key roles on some good Red Sox teams.  One is the franchise all-time leader in games pitched, another is the franchise leader in innings pitched.  Take a look.

Number 46 – Bob Stanley

Born in Portland, Maine, Bob Stanley spent 13 seasons with the Red Sox, and is the franchise leader in games pitched with 637.  He started a healthy amount the first few seasons of his career before moving full-time to the bullpen (aside from 1987).

1978 was Stanley’s second season in the bigs, and he had an excellent year.  Stanley was 15-2 with a 2.60 ERA and saved 10 games on that famous team.  The next year he made 30 starts, made the All-Star Game, and won 16 games.  In 1980 he won 10 games and saved 14, while pitching to a 3.39 ERA.  He was 49-29 with a 3.55 ERA and 28 saves after four seasons, making 63 starts and 122 more relief appearances.

Moving to the pen, Stanley won 22 games over the next two seasons.  Becoming the full-time closer in 1983, Stanley saved 33 games and made his second all-star team.  From 1981-85, working in relief, Stanley had a 3.20 ERA and saved 79 games while winning 45.  He had a mediocre 1986, and despite not allowing a run in 6.1 innings in the World Series, he is remembered very negatively for his crucial wild pitches in game six.

The Red Sox oddly moved Stanley back to the rotation in 1987 after six years of relief work; it did not go well.  Stanley was 4-15 with a 5.01 ERA.  With the experiment over, Stanley had one more good season in him, going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA over 101.2 innings in 1988.  In total, he won 115 games, and saved 132, over his 13 seasons in Boston.

Honorable Mentions: Craig Kimbrel, Jacoby Ellsbury (2007-09)

Number 47 – Bruce Hurst

Bruce Hurst was a solid pitcher for the Sox in the eighties.  He had an excellent 1986, and was good in 1988, but aside from that was largely average before going to San Diego.  With that said, he is easily the best number 47 in team history.

Hurst spent some time with the Sox in 1980, but didn’t do much before 1983.  He was 7-9 with a 6.17 ERA by the end of 1982.  At age 25 he made some strides, going 12-12, and throwing over 200 innings in 1983.  He was 12-12 again in 1984, and got his ERA below 4.00 for the first time, despite a very high 1.47 WHIP.  His strike outs and WHIP improved in 1985, but his ERA rose back up.  Over that three-year stretch, he was 35-37 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Hurst had his best season yet in 1986.  He was 13-8 over 25 starts that year, posting an excellent 2.99 ERA.  He then went 3-0 in the postseason, including 2-0 in the World Series.  Had the bullpen not choked away game six, Hurst may have won World Series MVP.  Hurst won 15 games in 1987, and made his first All-Star Game despite a high ERA (his ERA was much better in the first half).  1988 would be the final season of his Red Sox career, and he posted a career best 18-6 record.  Hurst placed fifth in the Cy Young vote with his 3.66 ERA and 18 wins.

He was largely much better towards the end of his time with the Sox, going 46-27 with a 3.76 ERA over the final three seasons.  In total, he won 88 games as a Red Sox, and posted a 4.23 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Honorable Mentions: Rod Beck, Jason Varitek (1997-99)

Number 48 – Lee Smith

The recent Hall of Famer did more of his work with the Cubs than anyone else, but his two-plus seasons with the Sox contributed to his case.  Acquired in the offseason between 1987 and 1988 for Al Nipper and World Series goat Calvin Schiraldi, Smith was brought in to give the team a legitimate closer.

Smith’s first season with the team he had a 2.80 ERA and struck out over 10 batters per nine innings.  His 29 saves were the most by a Red Sox since Bob Stanley’s 33 in 1983.  In 1989 he was 6-1 and saved 25 games.  His 12.2 strike outs per nine innings pitched was the highest of the Hall of Famer’s career.

The Red Sox curiously acquired another closer in the offseason in Jeff Reardon.  This seemed to spell something was amiss. S mith had a 1.88 ERA and four saves early that season, before being dealt to the Cardinals for Tom Brunansky on May 4th.

Honorable Mentions: Javier Lopez, Tony Fossas, Scott Atchison

Number 49 – Tim Wakefield

The franchise’s all-time leader in starts and innings pitched, as well as some less desirable categories, Tim Wakefield is the only 49.  Picked up off the scrap heap in 1995, Wakefield had an epic season for the Sox.  He was 16-8 with a 2.95 ERA, finishing third in the Cy Young vote.  He started the year 14-1 with a magical 1.65 ERA, before teams started squaring up his knuckleball late in the year.  That was the start of a 17-year run in Boston for Wakefield, including two World Series championships.

Wakefield was a serviceable starter over the next few seasons, and won 17 games in 1998.  The following four seasons would be split between starting and relieving.  He made 17 starts three straight years from 1999-2001, and 15 starts in 2002.  Wakefield even saved 15 games in 1999 as he proved he could perform many roles.  2002 was his best season since his first in Boston, going 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Wakefield moved back to the rotation in 2003 and had a solid season.  He was then excellent in the postseason before an ending that never should have happened.  He threw a career high 225.1 innings in 2005, and won 16 games, his most since 1998.  In 2007 he matched his career high with 17 wins.  Proving, at the age of 40, the knuckleball is ageless.  In 2009 he finally made his first all-star team, going 11-3 by the break.

After pitching two more seasons, Wakefield got to 200 career wins, 186 of them coming for Boston.  That total sits him third on the franchise list behind Roger Clemens and Cy Young.  He pitched in every role for the team, and proved himself a valuable commodity both on the field and as a teammate.

Number 50 – Mookie Betts

Who other than the MVP would be number 50?  Betts is the cornerstone of this current Sox team and coming off an MVP season.  At 26 years old he is already a three-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove winner, a two-time Silver Slugger, an MVP, a batting champion and a World champion.  Not too shabby.

Betts showed his potential immediately in 2014, batting .291 for the Sox in a season that began in AA.  The next year he batted .291 again, hitting 42 doubles, eight triples and 18 home runs.  Betts broke out in 2016, and nearly won the MVP, finishing second to Mike Trout.  He had 214 hits as he batted .318 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases.

Despite 2017 being a down year, Betts still homered 24 times and drove in 102 runs.  He doubled 46 times and stole 26 bases in 29 tries.  With a new hitting coach and new manager this past year, as well as some much-needed lineup protection, Betts put together a historic season.  He has now doubled over 40 times in all four of his full Major League seasons, giving him 189 total.  He has hit 110 home runs, as well as stolen 110 bases.  The future is bright for the always smiling Mookie Betts.

 

 

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Could Joe Kelly be the next Red Sox Closer?

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“I still feel like that’s where I’m gonna be for the rest of my career.” Joe Kelly’s recent comments have made it clear how he feels about Boston. Are the Red Sox going to grant him his wish of being with the team the remainder of his career? With Eduardo Nunez and Steve Pearce both locking themselves in with Boston for 2019, the money is starting to go on the books. Craig Kimbrel returning is seeming more unlikely by the day. So, going forward, the champs are going to need someone to hold down the back end of the bullpen. And I’m not saying Joe Kelly is the answer, but he’s definitely an admirable candidate.

Joe Kelly has firmly planted himself in Red Sox lore. From fighting Tyler Austin and the Yankees in April to pitching tough as nails in October, to dropping the puck at a Bruins game in November. Kelly has been endearing himself to the fans all season long, myself included. How can you not love this guy and the attitude he brings?

Admittedly, Kelly did struggle in the dog days of summer. Every time he came in the game, he was allowing inherited runners to score or giving up runs left, right and center. If he struggles like that in the ninth inning of games, in Boston, the seat will get hot real quick. So is it worth paying Kelly a good chunk of change to close out games? Personally, I think it’s a safe bet. He obviously won’t command the 4-5 years at 70+ million that Kimbrel likely will. This is huge for a Red Sox team who’s trying to make other moves.

Joe Kelly Has The Boston Mentality

He’s never been short of confidence. Having this persona, allows him to be a guy with the guts to get the job done in the tough moments. Closing out games in one of the biggest sports markets isn’t easy. It requires these aforementioned guts to get the job done. The light shines brighter than in almost any other city in America. Putting money in the wrong place for the man to fill the job could be costly.

Despite the temporary summer struggles, I’ll take the grit of Joe Kelly any day of the week. If he comes back it would almost certainly be as the closer. Many other teams in the league could use an upgrade at the position and likely could also pay more than Boston can. Selling Kelly on having the closer’s role would likely be a huge factor in pleasing Joe, and keeping him with the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.

There are other options on the table via trade and via free agency. If the Red Sox choose to spend their money in other ways, I could see Matt Barnes also taking over the reins. Whatever ends up happening, if Joe Kelly does in Boston it’ll be as the closer. After October, I think that should be a comfortable feeling.

 

The Red Sox Should Move on from Kimbrel

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Craig Kimbrel rejected his qualifying offer Monday, making him a free agent. Without Kimbrel, the Red Sox have no obvious candidate to fill in as the closer. However, they have a couple of in-house options and there are several viable free agent candidates who would cost much less than bringing Craig Kimbrel back. These are the reasons the Red Sox should explore those other options.

The Contract

Craig Kimbrel was always going to command a big contract for a relief pitcher. With news the other day that his agent, Scott Boras, claims Kimbrel to be the greatest closer ever, one can expect they are aiming for a big-time payday. What would that entail? My guess is Kimbrel will receive a five-year contract somewhere in the 90-100 million dollar range.

With Kimbrel turning 31 next spring, a 5-year contract could be a bit risky. His velocity might decline over the next couple of years, hurting his effectiveness. As things stand now, his effectiveness already waxes and wanes. For how good Kimbrel is, his control tends to disappear at times, at which point fans are in for a rocky rollercoaster ride in the ninth inning. Do you really want Kimbrel taking up 18-20 million of payroll each year for the next five years? That money would be better spent elsewhere. In addition, with the qualifying offer rejected, the Red Sox would pick up a draft pick if Kimbrel signed elsewhere.

This isn’t meant to criticize Kimbrel, he has been one of the better closers of all-time. He has a career ERA under 2.00 and 333 saves. Just two years ago he had another historic season, nearly striking out half of all batters he faced. However, when looking at his other two seasons in Boston, Kimbrel has been good, but nothing special. In 2016 and 2018 Kimbrel has a 3.04 ERA and walks nearly five batters per nine innings pitched. He’s still a strikeout machine and typically gets the job done, but it raises some questions.

More Important Contracts

Mookie Betts jumps to mind as a player the Red Sox need to extend. As the probable 2018 American League MVP and already a three-time Gold Glove winner, Betts is going to command a very large contract. The Red Sox will need plenty of available space to make an extension with Betts work. It might not happen this year, but with only two arbitration years left before he hits free agency, the Red Sox can’t be sleeping on this.

Chris Sale is another obvious guy as he enters his final year before free agency. Sale has been everything the Sox could have hoped for when they traded for him, going 29-12 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 over his two seasons with the team. Sale is probably a top-five pitcher in all of baseball, it would be hard to lose that. With free agency looming, the Sox should be locking him up long-term this offseason.

Xander Bogaerts is also entering his final season before free agency. A two-time Silver Slugger coming off his best season to date, Bogaerts isn’t going to be cheap to retain either. Bogaerts hit 23 home runs, drove in 103 runners and posted a career-best .883 OPS this season. At a premium position, Bogaerts is an important player and won’t be a cheap one. Can the Sox retain him, Betts and Bogaerts even if they don’t keep Kimbrel?

The Red Sox shouldn’t be doling out massive contracts to guys who pitch 50 innings a year when they have MVPs and Silver Sluggers and potential Cy Young Award winners to lock up.

Free Agent Options

The Red Sox might be able to sign two late-inning options for the price of just Kimbrel, with considerably fewer years of payroll tied up in them. That is the direction they should go in, sign two, maybe even three guys to one or two-year deals to lock down the end of the bullpen. If they keep Joe Kelly, they’d likely be looking at signing two.

David Robertson

Robertson has had a nice career but has always done better in a setup role than as a closer. He had a sub-2.00 ERA his final three years with the Yankees before signing with the White Sox to be their closer. He did a good job but had an ERA above 3.00 all three seasons as their closer. At 34 years old come next season, he isn’t someone the Sox would want to give more than a two-year deal.

Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller is coming off a down season, so it might make some sense for the Sox to pounce. He too will be turning 34 next spring, so he won’t command a long-term deal. Coming off a down season, there is a chance he will be looking to sign a one year deal to reestablish some value. In his down season, Miller still struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. In his four previous seasons, Miller was 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 14.5 K/9. Those are some insane numbers, ones I would love to give him a chance to rebound to.

Adam Ottavino

Ottavino has less mileage on his arm than the other guys, but he’s actually about to turn 33. He has missed time with arm injuries more than once, but when healthy he is good. Pitching in Colorado, Ottavino had a 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 13 K/9 this past season.

Cody Allen

Allen might be looking for a one year deal after having his worst season as a pro this past year.  At just 29 years old, he shouldn’t be nearing the end of his effectiveness, and he might be a bounce-back candidate. In the five years before this past season, Allen had an ERA under 3.00 each season, coming to a 2.59 ERA for that five year period. He has saved 147 games over the past five seasons and strikes out 11.5 batters per nine innings for his career.

These are just some of the many options the Red Sox could explore to help form their bullpen. Joakim Soria, Greg Holland, Jeurys Familia, and Zach Britton are several more options that could be had for a fraction of the cost of Craig Kimbrel. Soria and Holland could probably be had on one-year deals. The Red Sox should be looking to sign a couple of the above players to vie for the closer role.

Miller spent four seasons with the Red Sox already. Staff photo by Christopher Evans.

 

Featured picture from Yahoo! Sports

What to Do with Craig Kimbrel

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Another night; another heart attack brought on by Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but another win. This has become commonplace in close Red Sox victories this postseason, as Kimbrel has been a disaster on the mound, but has ultimately finished out each game successfully; somehow.

Kimbrel appears to be a disaster waiting to happen, so what should the Red Sox do with him moving forward?

Pitch Him In Lower Leverage Situation

I think Kimbrel needs to be taken out of the closer role, at least temporarily. He absolutely cannot be trusted right now. Even if the next game is close, I would use other pitchers in the late innings.

If there is an opportunity in the near future to pitch Kimbrel in a game that isn’t very close, the Red Sox should take it. I’m not sure if nerves are playing a factor, they likely are, but Kimbrel can barely find the strike zone.

Maybe working in a lower leverage spot Kimbrel can find the strike zone. Maybe he won’t be able to, but you can’t have a guy throwing ball after ball trying to close out games.

There have been multiple times this postseason where Kimbrel has been brought on to protect a three-run lead and hasn’t thrown strikes. In that situation, the only goal is to throw strikes; a home run can’t beat you, throw the ball over the plate and make them work for it. Kimbrel has been giving the opposition baserunners without much fight.

Kimbrel’s Struggles

Craig Kimbrel has pitched in four games this postseason and allowed the opposition to score in all four. Just let that sink in for a moment.

His ERA is standing at 8.44 after last night and he has put 13 baserunners on in only 5.1 innings pitched. 13! Kimbrel has walked five batters and hit two as he struggles to locate his pitches. On numerous occasions he has yanked his fastball, missing so far outside the catcher is left reaching as far as he can to corral it. Other times, his breaking ball is a wild pitch waiting to happen. He has been playing with fire and somehow has yet to be fully burned. It’s only a matter of time if something is not done.

In game four of the ALDS, pitching with a three run lead, Kimbrel walked two batters and hit another. He threw 28 pitches to get three outs, less than half of them going for strikes. He came about as close to blowing that game as one could without actually blowing it.

His next outing he gave up back-to-back two out hits before a fly ball from Alex Bregman nearly tied the game.

Last night was another heart attack, walking three batters and hitting another. He faced 11 batters to close out the three run lead. Kimbrel has now thrown a whopping 101 pitches in his four postseason appearances. And then there is this:

Other Options

Despite everyone being worried about the Red Sox bullpen entering the postseason, Kimbrel has been the problem. Others have pitched very well, excluding Brandon Workman. Workman shouldn’t pitch unless the game is a blowout, he’s the only guy that’s been worse than Kimbrel.

Ryan Brasier struggled in his first postseason appearance but did not allow a run. He seemed to have cleared his postseason jitters with that performance because he has been nails since. Brasier is up to seven scoreless innings over seven appearances.

Matt Barnes has also come up big, netting a big strike out looking to end the seventh last night. Barnes has now thrown 5.2 shutout innings over six appearances this postseason. These are currently the Sox two most trustworthy relievers, like it or not. At least for now, they should be getting the highest leverage spots.

In addition to them, others are also performing well. Heath Hembree has thrown 3.2 shutout innings, albeit not in any tight spots. Joe Kelly has stepped up his game, showing the good side of his pitching. Kelly has allowed one run over 5.1 innings without issuing a walk. The strike throwing is refreshing.

Ideally Kimbrel is the ninth inning guy; he’s been doing it a long time and it helps set up the bullpen better. But for the moment, he can not be trusted with the way he is throwing, and the Red Sox need to try someone else.

Red Sox Should Target Three Relievers This Offseason

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The bullpen has been a thorn in the Boston Red Sox’s side many times in 2018. To say that it is a bad bullpen is, quite frankly, a bad statement. However, it seems that they may not be a threatening bullpen to opposing teams. They can get the job done, but are they reliable to have a lock-down inning when needed? Red Sox fans loathe the moment when a relief pitcher comes in to a high leverage situation, in 2018.

This season has been a fantastic one as of now. Currently at 103 wins and one win away from clinching their third AL East title in as many years. The writing seems to be already on the wall for this impending postseason. The bullpen is barely trustworthy.

This is a small cloud that is seen in a huge ray of sunshine. Not to be redundant, but this Red Sox team is legitimately good. However, every team has its weaknesses and this is one that can carry into next season if not addressed. Don’t expect a trade, as the Red Sox don’t have a lot of pieces they can afford to give away for the time being. Thus, it’s never too early to look at who the Red Sox could sign in the offseason. Here are three serious options they should consider:

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1. Craig Kimbrel

Hear me out on this one before you shoot me.

Yes, we all know that Kimbrel isn’t having a fantastic season. Yes, he is having the worst season of his career when it comes down to FIP. A statistic that is, of many things, very telling of how a pitcher could perform in the future.

When it comes down to who the Red Sox currently have that can take over in case of Kimbrel’s departure, it’s frightening. Currently the closer role would have to go to Ryan Brasier, who has been the most reliable pitcher this season for the Sox. Even then, Brasier is unproven (38.1 IP in his MLB career) and Kimbrel should not be replaced with Brasier just yet. Also, some current closers on the 2019 free agent market are not worth breaking the bank for.

Kimbrel knows what it’s like to pitch in Boston, experience the media, fans, ballpark and the pressure of a big market. He’s experienced success and struggles with this team. He knows what is needed of him, and he is the best available option in the 2019 free agency class. It’s time to trust Kimbrel again.

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2. Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller has been on my list of “Relief pitchers I want next season” and there are a lot of reasons as to why this still holds water. Since 2016, he is ranked first (high leverage situations) in average against, ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP, BB/9, and K/BB among all relief pitchers that will be a free agent in 2019.

He’s been to a World Series, seen success and failure throughout his career and is a seasoned veteran. Also to note, he has a 1.10 ERA in 32.2 Postseason innings pitched.

One final note is that he has also experienced what Boston has to offer, being that he was with the club for four seasons. He knows what is expected of him just like Kimbrel, and Miller can be the guy that can bring this bullpen to a new level if added.

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3. Jeurys Familia

Never would a former Mets player would be on a list of players that I would put my trust in, yet here we are.

Jeurys Familia has quietly put together a pretty good career up to this point. Albeit, he hasn’t looked unhittable since joining Oakland but that’s besides the point. His numbers in high leverage situations are very good and he does a great job at keeping the ball in the yard. Familia is someone that the Sox can potentially replace Kimbrel with if talks fall through. He’s proven to the world that he can close out games (51 saves in 2016) and can produce in a big market city.

One final note on Familia, is that he is younger than the aforementioned options. This is one less worry for when this team has to lock up some of the younger guys.

@ELJGON

Fresh Take Friday: Is Koji or Kimbrel a Better Closer for the Red Sox?

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Is Koji Uehara or Craig Kimbrel a Better Pitcher for Boston?

As current Sox closer Craig Kimbrel continues to rack up saves for the team, fans are looking ahead to a potentially deep postseason run. There is no doubt that Kimbrel has been an excellent pitcher for Boston. His success reminds one of the last dominant Red Sox closer: Koji Uehara. Koji was a catalyst for the 2013 title run and had an impressive resume of his own with Boston. The success of both pitchers leads to an obvious question: which was better in Beantown?

The Case For Koji

Koji Uehara was a total fan favorite from the moment he took the mound. His first season in Boston is arguably one of the best seasons for a closer in history. During that 2013 regular season, he had 101 strikeouts over 74.1 innings. He had nine walks in that timeframe. That’s ridiculously good. His velocity was nowhere near that of the other star closers, but his command of the strike zone was masterful, complete with a splitter that can only be described as pure filth. His ERA was 1.09 that season, and his save percentage was 87.5%. In the postseason, Uehara pitched 13.2 innings with 16 K’s and not a single walk. He was named ALCS MVP and threw the final pitch of the World Series to clinch it for the Sox.

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While the next few seasons weren’t quite as spectacular, they were still serviceable as the team’s success declined. He was on and off the DL in the next three years, but still posted good numbers. He had 26 and 25 saves in 2014 and 2015, respectively, with ERAs of 2.52 and 2.23 in those years. His 2016 campaign was less successful, but doesn’t take away from what he did in Boston.

Aside from his baseball performance, Koji was just an awesome person. He was super enthusiastic on and off the mound and simply radiated pure joy. Everyone tuned in when he took the mound because he was just so much fun. As an added bonus, someone made this hilarious song about him. It might be difficult for anyone to top Koji’s career with the Sox.

The Case for Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel took over for Koji in 2016 and hasn’t looked back. In 2016, though he posted a 3.40 ERA, he recorded 31 saves in 33 chances. In 2017, he dropped his ERA to 1.43 and converted 35 of 39 save opportunities. He was an All-Star in both of those campaigns. So far this year, he has amassed 24 saves with a 2.23 ERA. His fastball simply rips by opponents, usually at around 98 miles per hour. He also has a nasty curveball that he uses, getting batters to go down swinging miserably. Some argue that Kimbrel has been inconsistent this year, and while he’s had his ups and downs, most nights the Sox can rely on him to slam the door.

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Though Kimbrel doesn’t have a World Series ring like Uehara, one could be in his future. The Red Sox currently sit in first place in the AL East  and don’t show any signs of slowing down. Kimbrel could be a key player for the team if they make a deep run. He’d serve as one of the most important members of the pitching rotation, if not the most important. Opposing batters become frightened and Boston fans get excited when the Red Sox “Release The Kimbrel”.

The Verdict

So, which of the two pitchers was better in their time at Fenway? As it stands right now, it looks like the nod has to go to Koji. His ERA in Boston was 2.19 compared to Kimbrel’s 2.27 thus far. His strikeout to walk ratio was also far better, averaging 7.86 to Kimbrel’s 4.55 strikeouts per walk. Uehara also had his dominant year in 2013, when absolutely no one in the league could touch him. Kimbrel hasn’t quite had that year as of yet. Of course, Koji also has that elusive World Series win under his belt while with the Sox.

However, that’s not to say Kimbrel can’t flip the script. He’s already tallied more saves in his time here than Koji did (89 to 79), and is only 36 strikeouts behind Uehara in 71.2 less innings. If Kimbrel keeps up the solid work, he could pass Koji as the better closer to ever dawn a jersey in Boston. If he really wants to cement his name in Red Sox lore, though, he’ll help Boston to their sixth World Series championship come October.

What do you think? Tell me on Twitter: @jackbuffett_