Tag Archives: Dustin Pedroia

Alex Cora is the Right Man for the Job in Boston

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The Red Sox are in the market for a new manager for the first time in five years after John Farrell was fired after another disappointing postseason appearance.

The team knocked it out of the park when they hired Farrell prior to the 2013 season, following up a tumultuous 2012 season with a World Series title in Farrell’s first season. The team followed that up with back-to-back last place finishes, as well as back-to-back AL East titles, something the organization had never achieved before.

Still, it was not enough, as division titles don’t buy you job security in Boston. Now, it’s back to square one, and the Red Sox seem to have their sights set on a new man to lead the ball club. A certain somebody who has experience playing in Beantown.

Take a minute and think back to the Red Sox teams of last decade, say from 2004-2010. Think of how much fun those teams were to watch; no drama, no media tirades, none of that. Just quality, winning baseball that resulted in two championships.

Cora played with the Red Sox right in the middle of that era. He was on the 2007 World Series winning team. He was on the 2008 team that was one win shy of back-to-back appearances in the Fall Classic.  Not to mention, Cora was teammates with Dustin Pedroia during the majority of his tenure in Boston.

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What this team needs is somebody who can communicate effectively in the clubhouse. The players need a manager that can be authoritative, but also friendly with the guys. Terry Francona found that happy medium, and it’s why he is one of the best managers, if not the best manager in Red Sox history.

Now, I’m not about to put Alex Cora in that category; the guy has only been a coach for one season.

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However, what I will say is that this team will have a different dynamic next season. The locker room will be better, players will be happier, and that will result in a much better on-field product.

Also, Red Sox fans everywhere will be spared from watching John Farrell make his fair share of questionable in-game decisions.  You can’t knock Farrell, however. I’m not here to crush the guy. He did bring a title to Boston in very unexpected fashion.  When it came right down to it, Farrell didn’t do enough after 2013 to maintain job security.

Should the Red Sox bring in Cora, which right now seems likely, the 2018 season looks much brighter than it did before.

 

Is Pedroia Bound for Cooperstown?

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A little more than a decade ago, I took my son to Arlington to watch the Red Sox play the Rangers. I’d been to the park a few times – whenever Boston came to town we’d try to catch a game or two.

A couple of years removed from 2004’s Curse Breakers, the ‘07 Sox were good. Objectively speaking, they were far and away the best of our three recent World Series teams. The 2007 Rangers sucked. Most of the 40,000 in attendance were there to watch Boston.

First Glimpse of Greatness

I don’t remember much about the game except that Julian Tavarez started for Boston and somehow managed to avoid having a psychotic episode on the mound – which was rare for him. The other thing that I’ll never forget?   Watching our diminutive rookie second baseman play for the first time.

Clinging to a one-run lead in the top of the ninth inning, Pedroia put together an epic AB against Texas closer Eric Gagne. To be fair, this was not Cy Young Gagne. He was three seasons removed from his chemically enhanced prime, but he could still pitch.

He and Pedroia went at it for nine or 10 pitches. Then, Gagne made the mistake of throwing him a high but hittable fastball – not the 101mph steroid specials that made him a hero in LA, but a low-mid 90s get-me-over – and Pedey drilled it 400-plus feet to the left-field bleachers to seal the win.

That single moment in time epitomizes Pedroia’s career. He fights for everything and he usually wins.

Though his most recent stint on the DL is hopefully coming to an end this weekend, the number of those has piled up over the last few years. It isn’t too soon to start wondering how much game he has left. He’s a 12-year veteran, but over the course of the ten full seasons he’s been with the big club (’07-‘16) he’s only averaged about 137 games a season.   He’s tough, but he isn’t exactly durable. And he isn’t getting younger.

Can he go the distance?

So where does his career land him?

He’s clearly one of the all-time great Red Sox players. But a Hall of Famer?

Probably.

If Pedroia can get back in the line-up this season and contribute at his pre-DL rate, he’s on pace for his career averages and should compete for another Gold Glove (would be his 5th). If we conservatively assume that Dustin will be 70% as productive for the next five years as his per-season career average, then when compared to the last four infielders elected to the Hall by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA – a horrible organization name by the way), Pedey deserves a plaque in Cooperstown.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA
Pedroia NOW 1483 5930 910 1786 392 15 139 716 612 640 0.301
Pedroia (Projected) 2050 8198 1256.5 2468.5 542.5 22 191.5 989 846.5 885 0.301
Jeter 2747 11195 1923 3465 544 66 260 1311 1082 1840 0.310
Larkin 2180 7937 1329 2340 441 76 198 960 939 817 0.295
Biggio 2850 10876 1844 3060 668 55 291 1175 1160 1753 0.281
Alomar 2379 9073 1508 2724 504 80 210 1134 1032 1140 0.300

Thanks to baseball-reference.com we know that, conservatively speaking, Scrappy Doo will have a significantly stronger Hall resume than Barry Larkin (in two fewer season), plus a Rookie of the Year, League MVP, and at least four Gold Gloves to his credit. Barry Larkin was a hell of a player – also a league MVP, three-time Gold Glover, and a World Series winner in 1990 – but Pedroia is clearly better in all aspects of the game.

We could put Bill James on retainer to analyze the second and third order stats to compare Pedroia to Jeter, Biggio, Alomar, and anyone else.  The result will be the same. Pedey’s problem is longevity and staying in the line-up. His career-per-season productivity is almost identical to Jeter’s – and unlike “the Captain”, Pedroia actually earned his Gold Gloves. If he stays reasonably healthy and averages about 450 ABs a season for the next five years, they’ll hang his plaque in Cooperstown.

I can’t wait for the speech.  You know it’s going to be hilarious.

Can the Red Sox Make the World Series?

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Five things that need to happen for the Red Sox to win the World Series:

  1. David Price comes back healthy and finally wins a couple games in the postseason:

    Price has notoriously never won a playoff game.   If he could come back and pitch well that would be huge for the Sox. He needs to get the monkey off his back and win a playoff game, and in so doing he would go a long way towards shoring up the pitching staff. Drew Pomeranz has had a complete turnaround, but behind Chris Sale the Red Sox pitcher with ace capability is David Price. Having a healthy Price to follow Sale in rotation is ideally what the Red Sox need.

  2. Red Sox bats follow Rafael Devers’ and Eduardo Nunez’ example:

    Red Sox hitters were ineffective until the month of August. Struggling to find their way following David Ortiz’ retirement, the trade for Eduardo Nunez and the call up of Rafael Devers have helped spark their dormant bats. Halfway through the month of August the Red Sox have 19 home runs, only six less than they hit the entire month of July. They are on pace to hit more home runs this month than any month this season and their team OPS of .810 is the highest of any month. But through Monday night, Mookie Betts was hitting .220 in August, Hanley Ramirez .214, Xander Bogaerts .211 and Jackie Bradley .179. If the Red Sox can get everyone clicking they will be dangerous.

  3. Bullpen continues to perform:

    Despite all the talk of the Red Sox needing bullpen help, their relievers this year are 21-13 with a 3.03 ERA and better than a strike out per inning. But the Sox don’t have a shut-down reliever beyond Craig Kimbrel.  Dominant as ever this year, Kimbrel’s stats speak for themselves:  striking out an insane 16.56 batters per nine innings while allowing just eight earned runs in 50 innings. All other Red Sox relievers are having solid seasons, but just not comparable. Does anyone have faith come playoff time the other relievers can hold down the fort?  That might just be a key to them winning the World Series. The Red Sox need their middle relievers and setup men to continue pitching well.

  4. Catcher Defense:

    The Red Sox have two excellent catchers who can control the running game. Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon have combined to throw out 29 would-be base stealers this season at a 35.8% rate. Vazquez stands fifth in the league in caught stealing percentage at 37.2%. Keeping opposing baserunners honest and not allowing them to take the extra bases has proved daunting for the Red Sox in recent seasons. In the playoffs, where every run seems to have amplified meaning, holding runners at first could be an underrated key.

  5. NO MORE PABLO SANDOVAL! :

    Does this one even need an explanation?

Year Age Tm Lg G PA WAR oWAR dWAR Salary
2015 28 BOS AL 126 505 -0.9 0.3 -0.9 $17,600,000
2016 29 BOS AL 3 7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 $17,600,000
2017 30 BOS AL 32 108 -1.1 -0.3 -0.8 $17,600,000
SFG SFG SFG 877 3562 20.7 20.6 0.8 $18,516,750
BOS BOS BOS 161 620 -2.2 -0.1 -1.7 $52,800,000

Five things that could go wrong

  1. Rotational depth isn’t strong enough in postseason:

    If David Price can’t get healthy the Red Sox rotation is solid, but not as strong as they would like for postseason play. What if David Price doesn’t pitch again this year? What if he comes back and can’t stand up, getting lit up a couple times? Without him, Drew Pomeranz and Rick Porcello have to be the numbers two and three for the playoffs, and I’m not sure they match up. Pomeranz has been great this year, but he doesn’t pitch deep into games. Pomeranz also had never thrown 100 innings before last year; will he wear down come playoff time? Rick Porcello just has not been very good this year with an ERA over 4.50. Those two would look a lot better behind Sale and a healthy Price.

  2. Dustin Pedroia doesn’t heal:

    Dustin Pedroia has been bothered by left knee inflammation for a couple weeks now. He came back from a disabled list stint to play in only one game before returning to the DL. By the sounds of things we won’t see him anytime too soon. Pedroia is the only season-long regular on the Red Sox with a batting average over .300 (.303). He also plays Gold Glove defense at second base, something his replacements most certainly do not. Hopefully Pedroia will heal up with a couple weeks off.  But if his knee gives him problems the rest of this season, the Sox will be without a team leader on the field.

  3. The bullpen implodes:

    This is something that seems to be the fear of all Red Sox fans. The bullpen has performed well this year, but without any lock-down guy beyond Craig Kimbrel can the bullpen hold up their end of the bargain down the stretch and come playoff time? I liked the Addison Reed trade, low-risk move for a setup man who has had a couple good years. However, he was another guy I do not trust added to the bullpen. I tweeted at the time of the trade I would not be surprised if he went full blown Eric Gagne circa 2007.

    The Red Sox traded for Gagne that year to solidify the bullpen.  He came over with a 2.16 ERA for Texas. Gagne posted a 6.75 ERA the rest of that season for the Sox. Unfortunately so far Reed hasn’t alleviated my concerns, allowing five runs in 4.1 innings pitched since the trade. Joe Kelly also hasn’t looked the same since coming back from the disabled list. The Red Sox could use him pitching like he did in May and June when he did not allow a single run.

  4. Rafael Devers and Eduardo Nunez slow down:

    Nunez and Devers have given the Red Sox offense a shot in the arm since they have arrived. Through Monday they had a combined 10 home runs between the two of them in just 130 at bats. Realistically though, Nunez isn’t going to bat near .400, and we can’t count on a 20 year old hitting with the best in all of baseball for the rest of the year. If and when they slow down, are other Red Sox stars going to step up their games and take the reins? Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez are all having down seasons. If they don’t make a move once others slow down the Red Sox might go back to hitting like they did in July.

  5. John Farrell:

    Many fans, myself included, are not the biggest John Farrell supporters. He routinely makes questionable decisions in games, leaving in certain pitchers too long, bringing in relievers in questionable situations, not pinch-hitting in obvious situations, etc. Will his game management help cost the Red Sox the World Series? He did his best in 2013, game three to be exact, but that’s another story.  Then again, maybe Farrell gets them to play better late in the year. Last year the Red Sox were one of the hottest teams down the stretch, and they seem to be trending that way again this year having won 11 of their last 12. Ninety percent of managing seems to be handling the personalities and keeping everyone in line and happy. You watch any manager enough and you will question plenty of moves they make.