Boston Sports Extra

The defending champs face off against a stripped down Seattle Mariners team in a four game series starting today in Seattle. Here’s what to look for as the Red Sox kick off the 2019 season.

Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)

3/28 Chris Sale vs Marco Gonzalez 7:10pm ESPN/NESN

3/29 Nathan Eovaldi vs Yusei Kikuchi 10:10pm NESN

3/30 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Mike Leake 9:10pm NESN

3/31 Rick Porcello vs Wade LeBlanc 4:10pm NESN

Notable Numbers

Rookie Yusei Kikuchi pitched well in his Major League debut in his Japanese homeland last week, allowing 2 runs (1 earned) in 4.1 Innings against the A’s. Long time watchers of the Sox know this team can struggle against pitchers they see for the first time. This could be a very interesting match-up, because Nathan Eovaldi went 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road last year.

Chris Sale had an insane .766 WHIP on the road last year (just another Bugs Bunny number from 2018), going 8-2 in those situations. But the most important number will be his average fastball velocity. A low 90s number means he’s on track, high 90’s (on average) means there isn’t a plan for his long term health, 80s may signal shoulder weakness.

J.D. Martinez has 2 Home Runs and hit .384 against the three Mariners starters he’s seen.

Edwin Encarnacion could be trouble. In 86 career at bats against the Red Sox starters, he’s hit .314 with 6 Home Runs and 17 RBI.

What To Watch For

The Bullpen: Alex Cora told us he would reveal the closer when the situation presented itself in the regular season. Will we see Brasier in the 8th, Barnes in the 9th? Will Cora deploy the bullpen based purely on match-ups regardless of the inning? We should know a lot more after this series.

Sam Travis: With Steve Pearce down, Sam Travis gets to face left-handed starters in the early part of the season. If he performs well with this chance he could guarantee a lot more playing time throughout the season. He’ll face three left handed starters in this series. He only hit .244 in Spring Training so he’ll have to pick it up quickly.

Expectations

The Sox went 4-3 against the surprisingly competitive Mariners last year. Since then the M’s have traded Robinson Cano, Jean Seguara, Edwin Diaz, and James Paxton. They also lost Nelson Cruz to free agency. That would be their best everyday players, their Closer, and their Ace. They’ve brought in replacements Edwin Encarnacion, Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Strickland, but that’s a big step down. They’re riding high and feeling confident after sweeping the As 2 – 0 in Japan.

The biggest question for the Red Sox is how they will play coming off winning the World Series in 2018. Going on the road is never easy, but the Sox are still a juggernaut and should win three of these games at least. It feels like the team wants to make a statement. A split will be a disappointment.

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The designated hitter “position” is old, with most of the players over 30. Two of the three best current designated hitters are over 35. So with their even further advanced age, it’s hard to keep them in the top three for the long-term. These guys will all play some in the field this year, but by and large, they will be at DH. With only half the league using the position, I will do the top five at the position with honorable mentions at the end.

1. J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez is an elite hitter, and still just 30 years old. This gives him a few years on the other elite guys at the position, so he should have a lot more value left in him. Since Martinez changed his swing heading into the 2014 season, he has been one of the best hitters in the game. One of the first to buy into hitting the ball in the air more, Martinez has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played over these past four seasons. This has not come at the expense of getting on base, as Martinez has batted .300 during that span as well. His .574 slugging percentage during that time bests even Giancarlo Stanton.

As for the claim that playing in Arizona helped him? He had three excellent seasons prior to last year, and hit 38 home runs in 2015. Yes, Arizona probably helped some, but he only played a partial year there. Sixteen of his 45 home runs last year came at Chase Field, leaving 29 hit elsewhere. Take away Arizona, he likely still would have approached and possibly reached 40 homers.

2. Khris Davis

I have Davis no better than the fourth best DH in baseball, but factoring in age, I have to elevate the 30 year old above guys who are 35 and 37. He’s not going to get on base a ton, but not many players in baseball have more power. Davis has batted exactly .247 for three consecutive seasons, with his rate of getting on base ranging between .307 and .336. Not great. However, in his two years playing in Oakland, one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game, Davis has hit 85 home runs. His slugging percentage has been above .500 for three straight years and in four out of five total. Pencil him in for a .250 average and 40 home runs.

3. Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion is one of the elite hitters I was referencing. At 35 years old, he has five years on both guys ahead of him, which is why he’s down at the three spot. However, he is still good enough that I would prefer his two or three seasons of scaring pitchers at the plate to the four or five years of solid play others might provide. His average won’t be great, but it should be much better than Davis’. Unlike Davis, Encarnacion also walks a lot to give him a good on-base percentage.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2012, Encarnacion has averaged 38 homers per season. His lowest total in that six year stretch was 34, in a season he only played 128 games. Leaving the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre last year, Encarnacion still crushed 38 home runs for Cleveland. Despite his .258 average he had a .377 on-base percentage thanks to walking over 100 times.

4. Logan Morrison

After years of underperforming, Morrison bought into the “fly ball revolution” and broke out. He still hit just .246, but with his 81 walks he got on base at a .353 clip. The big win was Morrison’s 38 home runs. This came after he had his 31 home runs the previous two years and 42 over the previous three. Morrison hit by far the most fly balls of his career last season, but also a career high 18% of them went for home runs. That likely won’t happen again, but if he keeps hitting the ball in the air he could be a threat for 30 home runs.

5. Nelson Cruz

Cruz will be turning 38 by mid-season, but he’s just as good now as he ever has been. He is quite remarkable; consistently putting up better stats in the second half of his 30’s then he did his entire career before then. Not that he wasn’t good; Cruz broke out in 2009 when he was 29. However, Cruz had never hit 40 home runs and only reached 30 in that 2009 season before 2014. Since, Cruz has hit 39 or more home runs in all four seasons.

Cruz is easily number two for just this season, with an argument for the top spot. But turning 38 this year, he just has too many years on the other guys for me to put him higher for the long-term. Given his 42 home runs per season and .908 OPS from his age 34 through 37 seasons though, I am not betting against this guy until he shows some decline.

Honorable Mentions:

Mark Trumbo, Evan Gattis, Kendrys Morales, Shin Soo-Choo

Featured picture from wpri.com