Tag Archives: George Springer

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Does Charlie Morton Compare to Nathan Eovaldi?

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One of the surprises of the 2019 Free Agency crop in Major League baseball is that Charlie Morton is available.  The Astros did not sign him before he hit free agency and they did not extend him a qualifying offer.

Nathan Eovaldi In Demand

Why does that matter to the Red Sox?  Because Nathan Eovaldi is suddenly starting to attract attention in the market.  A quick google search will show the Yankees’ interest.  And shockingly, curveball enthusiast Lance McCullers is going to miss the 2019 season for the Astros due to Tommy John Surgery.  According to many, this puts Eovaldi on the Astros list.

All of this is to say, the Red Sox will have a lot of competition for Eovaldi.  And while we rightly sing songs to his World Series heroics, it’s not like Eovaldi is the second coming of Pedro Martinez.  So it’s worth asking, if Eovaldi signs elsewhere, are there legit replacements available?

Charlie Morton

Let’s play a choose your own pitcher game.  Here are the average stats for the past two active seasons of each pitcher.  One of these is Charlie Morton, the other is Nathan Eovaldi:

  • Pitcher A: 118 innings, 23 starts, 4.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
  • Pitcher B: 157 innings, 27 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Can you guess which is which?  A is Eovaldi, B is Morton.  Charlie Morton gets a bad rap that he’s injury prone, but he’s averaging 157 innings a year, which is what you need from a number 3, 4 or 5 starter.  He walks a few more than Eovaldi but strikes out a lot more too.

The fact that Morton, like Eovaldi, is right-handed also works in his favor.  The Sox already have three left-handers in Sale, Price and Eduardo Rodriguez.  There are a lot of right-handed bats on the Red Sox closest competitors, the Yankees, and Astros.  Having a right-handed starter to counteract Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa is a necessity.

One other nugget about Morton: He is the forerunner of Eovaldi in terms of bullpen work in the ALCS and World Series in 2017.

Charlie Morton is 35 years old, 6 years older than Eovaldi, and because of that, there will be less demand for his services.  MLB Trade Rumors state, and I love this, that Morton is aging like fine wine.  They also estimate a 2 year $32 Million deal for him, verse a 4 year $60 Million deal for Eovaldi.

The Alex Cora Connection

There’s that man again.  Cora worked with Charlie Morton last year with the Astros, he has the inside knowledge on this guy.  Because of this, if there is smoke out there about the Sox interest in Morton I would believe it.

To me, Nathan Eovaldi is the Number 1 priority for the Red Sox in Free Agency.  But if the numbers start to creep towards $20 million a year I think the Red Sox should search for alternatives.  Charlie Morton is a great back up plan.

Raising a Glass to Rick Porcello

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Let’s take a minute to appreciate Rick Porcello from the ho hum, nothing to see here, game three of the ALCS in Houston.  He comes in to start the fourth inning and proceeds to give up a pesky pole special, a 326 foot homer to Mookie’ Betts’ best pal, and number 9 hitter, Tony Kemp. 

Tony Kemp.  What a gnat.  If the script was flipped and Houston wins in five it might’ve been him instead of our beloved JBJ being the ALCS MVP.  Then he faces the daunting top of the Astros lineup.

THE SETTING

Just imagine: The roof is closed on Minute Maid park, the smell of leather, sweat, the Jackson Street BBQ and Taco Trio in the air.  The awesome noise of the Houston fans pounding on his amygdala.  It’s Alex Bregman at bat looking to atone for inciting the Sox with his Instagram post before game 3.  Can we get an Instagram post of this sweet 102 MPH dot he swung through in his last at bat of the season?  You know, this one.  Ah, I think David Price said it better. 

THE PITCHING

At one point in the series Bregman was slashing a .000 batting average, .700 on base average, and .000 slugging percentage that was blowing statisticians minds.  Porcello dispatched the 800 lb gorilla of the Astros lineup with a strikeout, spotting the low and outside corner again and again. Then comes George Springer, doing his best Carlos Beltran playoff edition impression, having already homered and doubled in this game alone.  Walk.  Springer sprints to second on a blown Porcello toss over, inciting the Houston Thunderdome again.  

It’s 4 – 3 Astros and they’re looking for more.  With two outs now Rick has the Astro’s Tyrion Lannister, full of rage and frustration from having a home run taken away, or not, to deal with.  And Altuve’s doing his best Kirk Gibson, limping along and stinging every ball he gets his bat on. Porcello induces a gentle, tiny, wrapped like a little burrito just out of the womb, infield pop up.  As insignificant an outcome as there is from one of the best bat handlers in the game. Brilliance.

THE MAN

Yes, Rick Porcello didn’t have his best stuff.  The Astros got to him.  But Houston was on the precipice of routing him in the early innings of ALCS game 4 and he held his ground against the toughest part of the deepest lineup (I was hoping the national media wouldn’t notice the Red Sox incredibly deep lineup but I think we’re beyond that) in baseball and stood as tall as Nolan Ryan or, dare I say, David Price ever did.  We tip our weathered hats and frayed nerves to you Rick Porcello. May Chris Sale endeavor to emulate you.

Previewing the Sox: 5/28-6/3

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The previous week (5/20-5/27) for the Red Sox has been an encouraging one to say the least. They took two out of three from the Tampa Bay Rays and the first place (at the time) Atlanta Braves. The offensive player of the week is Andrew Benintendi (.353/.455/.824, 1.278 OPS, 223 wRC+). The pitcher of the week is Eduardo Rodriguez, who got two wins while posting up a 1.59 ERA with 14 strikeouts, three walks and two earned runs. This is evidence of two players who needed to have a great week like this. Will these performances kick-start the players into performing at a better rate? Only time will tell.

Glancing Ahead

Looking ahead to this week, the Sox play the Toronto Blue Jays at home for three games, and then travel to Houston for a four game showdown with the Astros. The Astros split their four game series with the Cleveland Indians, and will also be playing the Yankees for the first three game series of this week. Focusing on the Astros series, the probable pitchers look to be Pomeranz, Sale, Price, and Porcello. For the Astros, it looks to be McCullers Jr., Cole, Verlander, and Morton. The Sox seem to be facing the best of the best as both Verlander and Cole are ranked first and second in ERA in the American League (1.08 and 1.86 respectively). Also, George Springer and Alex Bregman are doing quite well in the month of May. Springer posting a .341/.383/.557 slash with a .940 OPS and Bregman with a .282/.396/.529/.940 line.
The Sox offense really needs to step up more than ever against Houston. The Astros, as a team, throw 43.9% of their pitches in the strike zone, and have the highest swinging strike percentage in the majors (12.6%). The Houston bullpen should not be undermined, as they have one of the lowest contact percentages in the majors (73.6%). They also have a 2.63 ERA, which is ranked third in baseball. All in all, this Astros pitching staff is no joke since they have the highest strikeout rates, along with a top 5 walk rate and a miniscule 0.86 HR/9 figure. The Sox need to be aggressive in the zone and attack early, because there is not a whole lot of relief once the opposing starters exit. Of course, there is the obvious payback feeling for being booted in the ALDS against this same Astros team. But here’s a catch: Alex Cora is leading the charge. He was on A.J. Hinch’s World Series winning coaching staff last year, which will prove to be an advantage. This series will be epic.

Notes for the week:

  • David Price has a career 1.088 WHIP with a 2.92 ERA while playing indoors (like Minute Maid Park).
  • The Astros lead the league in overall run differential, however Houston has a pedestrian +34 differential at home for the season.
  • The Sox will need Mookie Betts back in order to contend with the Astros this weekend. Don’t be shocked if Mookie misses the next few days.
  • The Red Sox have a 3.04 ERA as a team when playing away and the Astros have a 2.63 ERA when playing at home.
  • The Astros have a .235 batting average as a team when playing at Minute Maid park this season. The Sox have a .248 average when on the road.

This upcoming series with the defending champions is going to be a crazy experience. Don’t miss it.

@ELJGON

The Top Center Fielders Long-Term

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Center field is the easiest position to answer who the best is, as it is home to the best player in the game. It’s Mike Trout and everyone else. Who are those everybody else? Some are household names; some are new guys on the scene on their way to becoming household names. Factoring in age in determining the best players to have for the long-term, some perennially included players have dropped to the bottom or even off my list entirely. It does not mean I don’t think they are one of the best right now.

1. Mike Trout

Mike Trout is an all-time great, and he’s only 26. He finished first or second in the MVP vote in each of his first five seasons, and would have made it six straight if not for an injury last season. Instead, he finished fourth despite barely reaching 400 at-bats. At the time of his injury, Trout was on pace for a historic season, on pace for over 50 home runs and over 30 stolen bases.

After becoming a bit more of a slugger than all-around hitter in 2014 and 2015, Trout has again cut back on his strike outs the past two seasons and led the league in on-base percentage both years. He’s back to stealing bases, hitting over .300 and yes, he hits home runs still. He’s probably going to bat .300 and have an OPS around 1.000. Trout will be a threat for 40 home runs if healthy and possibly steal 30 bases. Heck, if the Angels turn him loose like they did his rookie year he could be baseball’s first 40-40 man since Alfonso Soriano in 2006. Enjoy watching him; you might never see anyone do it better.

2. George Springer

Springer has been slowly improving every season, culminating in career highs almost across the board last season at the age of 27. Springer then homered five times in the World Series, taking home MVP honors. He has fully arrived and he is in his prime. Mostly healthy the last two seasons, Springer has homered 63 times. What he really improved on last year was making contact. After striking out 178 times in 2016, Springer cut that number all the way down to 111 last year. His strike out percentage was well above average at 17.7. Despite a career low batting average on balls in play, Springer posted the highest batting average of his career. If he can keep the contact rate up, his average could climb even more.

3. Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, leading the league in hitting, base hits and triples. Blackmon homered 37 times and posted an OPS of 1.000. So why do I have him third? One, he benefits greatly from playing half his games in Coors. Blackmon is a career .346 hitter at Coors versus just .264 everywhere else. With that, his OPS is over 200 points lower playing on the road for his career. Secondly, Blackmon will be turning 32 around midseason, so he’s got a few years on the other guys.

Blackmon’s game has changed a lot the last couple seasons. In his first two full seasons, Blackmon hit a total of 36 home runs, one less than he hit all year last year. He was a gaps hitter who stole a lot of bases, stealing 43 in 2015. His stolen base numbers have dropped to 17 and 14 the last two years. In fact, his 14 stolen bases last season came with ten caught stealing. Meanwhile, his power has spiked, with his home run total going from 17 to 29 to 37 the last three years. He hasn’t even really been hitting more fly balls; just more of them are going over the fences. A free agent after the season, it will be interesting to see what he does if he leaves Coors Field.

4. Byron Buxton

Long heralded as the next big thing, Buxton may have arrived in the second half of last season. Buxton was the number one prospect in baseball according to Baseball America in 2014, and the second best in each of the next two seasons. His physical tools are matched by very few, it’s only been about if and when he could put it all together. He batted only .220 over parts of two seasons heading into last year, then was batting .216 at the all-star break last season. Did something click at that point, or did he just get lucky? Buxton batted .300 in the second half with 11 home runs, showing the world what they had been waiting for. He did benefit from a .378 BABIP though, and still struck out 63 times in 57 games.

Buxton doesn’t need to bat .300 to be a star though, he has all the tools. Buxton might just be the best defensive outfielder in the game, winning the Gold Glove last year after posting 2.8 dWAR. His 24 defensive runs saved above average last year led all center fielders. Buxton is also a great base stealer, stealing 29 bases while only being caught once. And after homering 11 times in the second half, he looks like he has 20 home run power. Even as a .250 hitter, Buxton would be a good player. Does he have more in him?

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton makes a leaping catch at the wall in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

5. Michael Conforto

The Mets appear to want to make Conforto their center fielder once back from injury. He is better suited to play a corner outfield spot, as he doesn’t have the range to cover center field. Conforto made 39 starts in center last year, posting a negative rating in defensive runs saved. Expected back from shoulder surgery in May, the Mets will have some decisions to make. Hopefully the shoulder injury does not have any huge impact on his bat, as Conforto broke out last season at the plate. A highly touted prospect for a couple of years, Conforto homered 27 times last season at the age of 24 before going down with the injury. He had an outstanding slash line of .384/.555/.939, a line ranking among the best in the game. Turning 25 in less than a week, Conforto could be a slugging outfielder for a long time to come.

6. Tommy Pham

Despite just playing his first (mostly) full Major League season, Pham will be 30 before the season starts. He is an interesting case in that he has always performed well, but never got a real opportunity until he was 29. Pham was a career .298 hitter in AA and .301 hitter in AAA. He performed adequately for the Cardinals off the bench in 2015, posting an .824 OPS. His numbers dropped off in 2016, but he showed some power with 9 home runs in 159 at-bats.

Pham has long since battled a degenerative eye condition, Pham has been overcoming obstacles his entire career. Finally given every day at-bats last year, Pham batted .306 with 23 home runs and a .931 OPS. That OPS placed him in the top 20 for the whole Major Leagues. He also stole 25 bases, hinting at a possible 30-30 season if he plays in 150 games. It’s quite impressive he can post such a good batting average and on-base percentage given his eyesight, hopefully it will allow him to continue to display his baseball tools.

7. Kevin Kiermaier

If Byron Buxton isn’t the best defensive outfielder, it’s because Kevin Kiermaier is. Kiermaier only played in 98 games last year thanks to injury, yet still posted 22 defensive runs saved above average. That total was only two behind Buxton. Kiermaier won the Gold Glove for center field in each of the two prior seasons, totaling 67 defensive runs saved above average. His dWAR over that three year span is 10.4. My money is still on him for the best defender in center field.

Kiermaier isn’t all glove either, and is coming off his finest offensive season. Kiermaier batted .276 last year and hit a career high 15 home runs despite the missed time. He also stole 16 bags, which would have been his second consecutive 20 steal season without injury. He’s certainly no great shakes at the plate, but he gets the job done. A solid batting average, a little bit of pop and the ability to steal a base; not a bad addition to the best glove in the outfield.

8. Starling Marte

2017 was not a good season for Marte, missing half the season due to a PED suspension. When he came back, he looked rusty and didn’t play his best ball. He finally said hello to the baseball season as it was saying goodbye, batting .322 in September with 3 home runs and 8 stolen bases. This was a reminder that Marte is a good ballplayer. The year before he had batted .311 and stolen 47 bases. Still just 29 this year, Marte should be a good hitter and a threat on the bases for a few years to come.

Over Marte’s four full seasons heading into last year, he had batted .292 while averaging 13 home runs and 37 stolen bases per year. He had twice eclipsed 40 steals in a season. He might not hit 19 home runs again like he did in 2015, as he dropped to 9 the following year. However, with a good batting average and 40 steal capability, power is not his game. Marte will be playing a mostly new position this year, after winning two Gold Gloves in left field.

Pirates’ Starling Marte hits a three-run triple against the Padres in the first inning at PNC Park Monday night. Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

9. Ian Happ

The 9th overall pick in 2015, Happ made his debut with the Cubs last year after appearing on top 100 prospect lists everywhere for two years. Happ certainly didn’t disappoint, smashing 24 home runs in only 364 at-bats. He is unlikely to have 18.9% of his fly balls go for home runs again, as they did last year. However, it is likely his contact rate and batting average will improve. Happ struck out in over 30% of his at-bats as a rookie, a number that will likely come down closer to 25%. Happ was only 22 years old for most of the season and spent less than two years in the minor leagues. He still has some developing to do.

Happ came up through the minors as a second baseman, so he also has some developing to do in the outfield. Above all that, the Cubs are putting him in center. He held his own at the position last year, posting a positive defensive runs saved in 41 starts in center field last year. Although not a large sample size, it’s a start. Only time will tell how he handles the position.

10. Lorenzo Cain

Cain is better than the tenth best center fielder in baseball right now, but he is 32. Cain’s game relies a lot on his speed, a skill that will most likely fade quicker with age than other skills. He might be a top five center fielder currently, but given these reasons, he comes in at tenth for the purposes of my list. Cain has stolen more than 25 bases in three of the past four seasons, and he uses his speed to cover a lot of ground in center field. But how will those skills look in two or three years?

Cain is also an excellent hitter. He does not have a lot of power, reaching double digits in home runs just twice, but he has hit .300 or better in three of the past four years. Last year, he bounced back from an injury-riddled campaign to bat .300 with 15 home runs. Moving to a hitter friendly ballpark in Milwaukee, there is no reason why Cain can’t equal those numbers again this year.

Honorable Mentions:

Ender Inciarte, Odubel Herrera, Adam Jones, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Michael Taylor, Aaron Hicks, Jackie Bradley Jr., Dee Gordon, Kevin Pillar