Tag Archives: Giancarlo Stanton

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Does Charlie Morton Compare to Nathan Eovaldi?

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One of the surprises of the 2019 Free Agency crop in Major League baseball is that Charlie Morton is available.  The Astros did not sign him before he hit free agency and they did not extend him a qualifying offer.

Nathan Eovaldi In Demand

Why does that matter to the Red Sox?  Because Nathan Eovaldi is suddenly starting to attract attention in the market.  A quick google search will show the Yankees’ interest.  And shockingly, curveball enthusiast Lance McCullers is going to miss the 2019 season for the Astros due to Tommy John Surgery.  According to many, this puts Eovaldi on the Astros list.

All of this is to say, the Red Sox will have a lot of competition for Eovaldi.  And while we rightly sing songs to his World Series heroics, it’s not like Eovaldi is the second coming of Pedro Martinez.  So it’s worth asking, if Eovaldi signs elsewhere, are there legit replacements available?

Charlie Morton

Let’s play a choose your own pitcher game.  Here are the average stats for the past two active seasons of each pitcher.  One of these is Charlie Morton, the other is Nathan Eovaldi:

  • Pitcher A: 118 innings, 23 starts, 4.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
  • Pitcher B: 157 innings, 27 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Can you guess which is which?  A is Eovaldi, B is Morton.  Charlie Morton gets a bad rap that he’s injury prone, but he’s averaging 157 innings a year, which is what you need from a number 3, 4 or 5 starter.  He walks a few more than Eovaldi but strikes out a lot more too.

The fact that Morton, like Eovaldi, is right-handed also works in his favor.  The Sox already have three left-handers in Sale, Price and Eduardo Rodriguez.  There are a lot of right-handed bats on the Red Sox closest competitors, the Yankees, and Astros.  Having a right-handed starter to counteract Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa is a necessity.

One other nugget about Morton: He is the forerunner of Eovaldi in terms of bullpen work in the ALCS and World Series in 2017.

Charlie Morton is 35 years old, 6 years older than Eovaldi, and because of that, there will be less demand for his services.  MLB Trade Rumors state, and I love this, that Morton is aging like fine wine.  They also estimate a 2 year $32 Million deal for him, verse a 4 year $60 Million deal for Eovaldi.

The Alex Cora Connection

There’s that man again.  Cora worked with Charlie Morton last year with the Astros, he has the inside knowledge on this guy.  Because of this, if there is smoke out there about the Sox interest in Morton I would believe it.

To me, Nathan Eovaldi is the Number 1 priority for the Red Sox in Free Agency.  But if the numbers start to creep towards $20 million a year I think the Red Sox should search for alternatives.  Charlie Morton is a great back up plan.

Red Sox-Yankees ALDS Preview Extravaganza

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It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.

I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:

Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.

Starting Lineup

The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.

And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.

The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.

The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.

Slight Edge: Yankees

Starting Pitching

Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale

Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price

Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…

Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)

Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)

Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen

I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.

The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).

The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.

Major Edge: Yankees

Bench X Factor

Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:

Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.

For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.

Edge: Red Sox

Manager

Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.

I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.

Edge: Red Sox

The Pick

I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.

But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?

RED SOX IN 5

What Could a Mookie Betts Extension Look Like?

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The Red Sox are most certainly going to re-open extension talks with the All-Star right fielder. What could a potential extension look like?

With free agency about the blow up the entire landscape of the MLB for the foreseeable future, could the Red Sox make an unprecedented move? If so, what could shake up things for the next decade? Extending All-Star and MVP candidate Mookie Betts! The five-tool player has shown flashes of greatness. When will Betts get paid?

His career numbers as of now indicate his game is only trending upward. He sports a career .301 batting average, with 105 home runs and 374 runs batted in. to go along with 104 stolen bases. To go along with two Gold Gloves, three straight All-Star selections, and a Silver Slugger award.

Last winter, the Sox signed J.D. Martinez to a five year $110 million contract with numerous player opt-outs after this season. While there are talks of restructuring after this season, these are the present numbers. J.D. has experienced his fair share of struggles throughout his career, making Mookie the better of the two. He will command more in any contract.  The rising star is becoming one of the top 3 players in the game.

Similar extensions

In 2015, the Los Angeles Angles extended Mike Trout to a six year, $144.5 million contract. The two-time MVP is one of the other top three players in the league. Now, there is no comparison between Trout and Martinez as an all around player, but offensively you could make some arguments. If Trout could command this money, what can other stars expect to want?

This year, the other top three player becomes the biggest free agency prize in years. Bryce Harper watch has been in effect all season long, with hopes of hints as to where he’ll wind up after free agency is all said and done. He could command anywhere to a rumored ten year $400 million deal. It would be the largest deal in sports history, but that deal could be shrinking after his sub-par .248 batting average. The Washington Nationals star has plenty of options moving forward.

Finally in 2014, the Miami Marlins extended Giancarlo Stanton to a 13 year $325 million contract, the largest contract ever. Now a member of the New York Yankees, Stanton has ten years left on his current contract, while he can opt out at anytime after 2020. The no trade clause is still in effect.

Considering all of the above contracts, what could a possible Mookie Betts extension look like? With the level of play he has flashed (especially against American League east teams) He could easily command a $200 deal. He is currently making $10.5 million this season with three more years of arbitration left.

Let’s just suggest his arbitration increases by at least $5.5 million each season. By the time he hits his first free agency, he would make $27 million for one season. If you go by his five-tool ability, it’s easy to conceive that his extension could be in the eight year, $225 million range.

If the two sides decide to go this route will have to wait. The postseason is creeping fast. While the numbers will be different, this is how the market is. While all attention shift to the end of the season, more excitement is soon to come.

Mookie

Red Sox Beat New York In Round One

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The battle of David vs. Goliath was more of a thrashing, as Mookie, and Chris Sale lead the charge and beat the Yankees 14-1 .

While both teams sent their aces out in the first match up of the year, Luis Severino didn’t have a shot. Chris sale mowed down 8 while lasting 6 innings in a monstrous 14-1 win. This brings their season record to 9-1 while New York is sitting at 5-6 ( 4.5 games back.)

Mookie Betts went 4-4 while hitting a grand slam and collecting 4 rbis and drawing a walk. Hanley extended his hit streak to 8 games with a pair of hits and grabbing 3 rbis. To round off the top three hitters Andrew Benintendi went 2-3 with a triple and 3 rbis.

Luis Severino (2-1) now posts a 3.50 era with 20 strikeouts on the season. He had a rough night from the jump, his command was never well placed, and he never had the Red Sox hitters second guessing. His opponent, Chris Sale (1-0) now sports a 1.06 era while tallying 23 strike outs on the season. Sale had a polar opposite night than Luis, with great command and sending multiple Yankee fans home depressed.

Aaron Judge hit the Yankees only run in a 444 foot home run over center field. Giancarlo Stanton went 2-4 while striking out twice and notching a double out by the Green Monster. With Xander Bogaerts slated for the 10 day dl, Brock Holt and Tsu-Wei-Lin stepped in for the shortstop. Both infielders  providing great defense in tonight’s win.

Wednesday’s match-up is slated for 7:10 pm with the Sox sending David Price ( 1-0) 0.00 era, against New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (1-1) 2.92 era in what should be a good match up.  With Alex Cora keeping his powerful lineup well rested, it’s only a matter of time until we see which line up is sent out to the field tomorrow night. It’s Boston vs. New York round 2, with only 18 more meetings on the season, every game counts towards first place.

Can We Get Chris Sale a Win?

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One of the most dominating pitcher in the American League has two no decisions. When will the cards fall for Chris Sale?

With his second start of the season on Tuesday against the Marlins, Chris Sale did Chris Sale things. He went five innings, allowing one run and five hits. He also struck out six. Just like last season, he had a no decision to start the season. But after this start can we please get him into the win column?

The dominant left hander made a huge run towards AL Cy Young Award last year, finishing second to Corey Kluber. While some consider that a questionable call one thing is for certain, he needs support. Against the Rays, he had the run support, yet the bullpen lacked the electricity it had last season. On Tuesday, it took 13 innings for someone to score more than one run. He needs stability in order to sign an extension.

A Chris Sale extension could very well look like a Clayton Kershaw type deal. While he might not get a seven year/ $215 million deal, he could easily command that or a deal in similar to teammate David Price. Price, who is 1-0 on the season, takes the mound on the home opener Thursday afternoon. While most signs point at an easy victory, the Rays will hope to have another Opening Day win versus the defending AL East champs.

While his next projected start might very well be against the New York Yankees, all sights are set to see two teams fight fire with fire. Electric power featuring Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge against the unhittable prowess of Chris Sale, David Price, and potentially Eduardo Rodriguez.

The David vs. Goliath match up is just around the corner, follow that series as well as the entire push for October glory at bostonsportsextra.com.

The Top Right Fielders Long-Term

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Right field is a very top heavy position. Not knowing yet how the Yankees will utilize their two sluggers, they both get included in right field as that’s where they have played previously. There is also a good chance they both play right field this season, rotating between there and DH. After a group of four superstars, the position has a steep drop-off. Who helps round out the top 10 for the best right fielders to have for the long haul?

1. Bryce Harper

Harper may not have been a consistent superstar to this point, but he is still only 25 years old. Harper has also put up superstar numbers for two of the last three seasons now while healthy. With his upside, and still being only 25, it is hard to argue against him in the top spot.

One of the most hyped phenoms of all-time, Harper broke in to the Major Leagues at the age of 19. Although it took a few years for him to achieve star numbers, he was good immediately. He hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper truly broke out in 2015 at just 22 years old. That season he won the MVP Award after leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He batted .330 with a .460/.649/1.109 slash line, showing the world his immense upside. Although he “slumped” to an .814 OPS the next year, Harper bounced back last season before getting injured. He again had an OPS over 1.000 while batting .319 with 29 home runs over 420 at-bats.

The biggest concern with Harper’s productivity moving forward may be health. Harper has now missed a relatively large amount of time in half of his six Major League seasons. When healthy, Harper should threaten 40 home runs with a near 1.000 OPS for years to come.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is another superstar right fielder who has struggled with injuries. Stanton has missed significant time in four of his Major League seasons. Despite all the missed time, Stanton’s 267 career home runs place him in the top 10 for most home runs through the age of 27. That number is more than Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. Imagine how many Stanton would have if not for the injuries. Heck, the last couple years he got hurt were fluke injuries. For his career, he has averaged 44 home runs per 162 games played.

In 2015, at the time of his beaning, Stanton was on pace for a 50 home run season. Last year he achieved it for real, bashing a league high 59 home runs. Now, leaving Miami, Stanton gets to play in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s park. If he stays healthy, Stanton could see a couple more 50 home run seasons in his future. Health is the key for the man who hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen.

Stanton won’t be taking aim at this ugly sculpture anymore. (Getty Images)

3. Aaron Judge

Personally, I think we just saw Aaron Judge’s career year, but after what he accomplished as a rookie, it’s hard to put him lower than three. Judge never hit all that well in the minors, posting a high of 20 home runs in 2015. He also only batted better than .280 once, back in his first season. Yet, his first year in the bigs and Judge batted .284 with a league leading 52 home runs. Strange how things work out sometimes. Judge also led the league in walks, 127, and strike outs, 208. Judge then struck out 27 times in 13 postseason games. To keep his average up, he will certainly have to cut back on his strike outs.

Diving into his numbers, 25.9% of Aaron Judge’s fly balls traveled for home runs. That is an insanely high rate, as the league average is 9.6%. I have to think that number will come down, and probably below 20%. As for his strike out rate, which was higher than 30%, that definitely will need to improve for a repeat performance. A .357 BABIP, which places him in the top 10, helped him to his .284 average despite all the strike outs.

Now, all this isn’t saying Aaron Judge is going to be a bad player. I am merely pointing out his underlying numbers which tend to show he won’t be as good moving forward. If Judge drops to a .250 batting average, with the way he walks he will still have better than a .350 on-base percentage.

4. Mookie Betts

I would not be surprised if Betts provided more value moving forward than some guys ahead of him on my list. Coming off a “down season” it is hard to justify putting him higher than 4th. He is easily the best fielder of this bunch though and he was an MVP candidate two seasons ago. Betts also has the most speed of anyone to this point, giving him arguably the most well-rounded game of the group.

Betts strikes out far less than the average player, striking out in only 11.8% of his career plate appearances. That number has been right round 11% in back to back seasons now. Assuming his BABIP normalizes, he should bounce back to closer to the player he was two years ago. That season, Betts had 214 base hits on his way to a .318 batting average. He also hit 31 home runs, 42 doubles and stole 26 bases as he finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award. He didn’t benefit from a high BABIP (.320). But last season, Betts’ BABIP dropped all the way down to .268. He still hit 24 home runs and 46 doubles though, while once again stealing 26 bases. With a return to normalcy, Betts should be around the .300 mark again this season.

As for his defense, Betts has won two straight Gold Glove Awards while posting a 5.4 dWAR. He has saved more than 30 defensive runs above average in both seasons, totaling 63 between the seasons. His 31 last year were 13 more than any other right fielder had. At 25 years old, Betts should be an all-around star for years to come.

Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts hits a double against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Domingo Santana

This is where the position drops off, though Santana is still a good player. Given a chance to start for the first time last season, Santana hit 30 home runs. Not only that, Santana exhibited the ability to draw a walk, walking 73 times. This gave Santana an excellent .371/.505/.875 slash line. The on-base percentage placed him 4th among all right fielders and the slugging percentage was 6th. Not bad for a first full season.

Santana always exhibited ability, twice hitting over 20 home runs in the minors and another time posting a .999 OPS. He was a big piece of the Astros trade to acquire Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez in 2015 for the stretch run. Playing half a season in the bigs in 2016, Santana hit 11 home runs and posted a .792 OPS. Yes, he was much better this past season, but it’s not like the season came out of nowhere. Also, young guys are supposed to improve, right? The ability is real, if anything drops some it will be his batting average after he benefited from a .363 BABIP this past year.

6. Nicholas Castellanos

After being a third baseman his whole career, Castellanos will call right field his home this season. He played 20 games there late last year to see if he could handle it. How he performs there is yet to be determined. As for the bat, that will play in right. Castellanos made Baseball America’s top 100 list four times, twice placing in the top 25. He then spent his first full season in the majors at the age of 22. It’s not a surprise it took him a few years to start producing, but he has now had two straight excellent seasons at the dish.

Castellanos took a big step forward two years ago, batting .285 with 18 home runs and an .827 OPS. Despite a slow start last season, Castellanos hit a career high 26 home runs and led the league with 10 triples. The numbers look sustainable, as his extra base hit percentage and home run rate have held steady the last two seasons. Castellanos has also improved his strike out rate in back to back years. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Castellanos should be entering his prime.

7. Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen has the superstar name, and certainly has been one, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now. His game has shown obvious signs of decline as he no longer has the speed to steal many bases or to play center field. McCutchen looks like he will play primarily right field for the first time in his career this season as he makes the move to San Francisco.

McCutchen may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he still has a good bat. At 31, he isn’t so ancient that we should be expecting him to continue to rapidly decline. He still should have a few good seasons left in him. He isn’t the .300 hitter he was from 2012-2014, falling short of that mark in each of the last three seasons. However, he did bat .279 with 28 home runs last season. He probably will provide more value on defense as well playing in right field. He posted negative defensive value playing center in each of the last four seasons. However, McCutchen posted positive value in a 13 game stint in right field last year.

McCutchen will call San Francisco his home after spending his first 9 seasons in Pittsburgh.

8. Jay Bruce

Bruce will join McCutchen as a 31 year old shortly after the season begins. Although the age does him no favors in my long-term articles, it’s by no means a death knell. There is no reason why he can’t continue hitting into his mid-thirties at least. He ultimately may find himself moved to first base, a position he has played a little of before.

Bruce is a fairly one-dimensional slugger. Although he isn’t allergic to walks, he doesn’t walk too often. He doesn’t hit for a high average, he doesn’t steal bases, he mostly just slugs home runs. At least he seems to be a pretty good player again. From 2010-2013, Bruce batted .262 and averaged 30 home runs per year. He then had two very poor seasons, batting .222 without posting any real value. However, he is back to being the player he was before 2014 it seems. Bruce has hit .252 the last two seasons while hitting 69 home runs. He is coming off a career high 36 home runs last season. He looks like he should be a .250 30 home run hitter for a couple more seasons.

9. Yasiel Puig

Puig is a polarizing player, both on and off the field. He looked like a future star his first two seasons, batting .305 with an .888 OPS. His arm in right field was a weapon as well as his bat. Then his play fell off the next two seasons, batting just .260 with a .748 OPS. He hit only 22 home runs combined those two years and was sent to the minors in 2016. His attitude was considered to be a problem both on and off the field.

Still just 26 last season, Puig’s play rebounded. He still hit just .263, but he clubbed a career high 28 home runs. Puig posted an .833 OPS, his best in three seasons. His play in the outfield was arguably the best of his career, putting up 18 defensive runs saved above average. Runners don’t test his arm like they used to, as Puig had just 4 assists. But he’s still holding runners, and he only made one error.

So, which Puig will we see moving forward? Can he continue to be a force on the field or will his play regress again? Puig also carries the character concerns, meaning he could affect team chemistry even when going well. Still just 27 years old, Puig has plenty of time to turn his career around.

10. Nomar Mazara

Mazara was just 20 years old when he made the majors, and he has held his own. The number 21 prospect according to Baseball America in 2016, Mazara batted .266 and hit 20 home runs. Last season, he had his peaks and valleys, showing all the streakiness one might expect from a 22 year old. When all was said and done he had hit 22 home runs, doubled 30 times and driven in 101 runners. His average dropped a bit, while his other rate stats saw incremental gains.

I believe there is more in him waiting to show the world. He was a big prospect brought to the majors at such a young age. Still just 22 at the start of the year, Mazara has plenty of development left. He’s got plenty of power in his 6’4″ 215 pound frame, and I expect his skills to become more toned and consistent. I expect Mazara to post career highs across the board this season, except maybe runs batted in.

Honorable Mentions:

Steven Souza Jr., Avisail Garcia, Mitch Haniger, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Scott Schebler, Randal Grichuk

 

 

 

Feature picture from Federalball.com

 

Can the Red Sox Win with Spot Starts?

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Starting pitching is one of the most injury-riddled positions in baseball. The throwing motion itself is inherently unnatural, so injuries plague the position. Last week, Red Sox management announced that both Eddie Rodriguez and Steven Wright are unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. This means the Sox will be relying on spot starters entering the season, which begs the question: can the Red Sox win with spot starts?

Can the Red Sox Win with Spot Starts?

How Long Will They Need Him?

This article isn’t going to be about who the spot starter will be – that’s already been analyzed here – but more about how the team around him will perform. E-Rod’s offseason knee surgery has been public news for a while, and he’s expected to be back in early to late May.

Wright, however, seems to be further along than E-Rod. He’s already been throwing off flat surfaces, and is expected to transition to throwing off a mound within a week. Knee injuries are tricky, but let’s conservatively assume he’ll be ready in a bit under two months time.

With that conservative estimate, the Red Sox will likely need to use their fifth starter for three or four trips through the rotation. Let’s take a look at what those starts might look like.

First Run Through Rotation: the Miami Marlins

Image result for giancarlo stanton

Whoever the fifth starter is won’t have to worry about Giancarlo Stanton…yet

Image credit: New York Times

The Red Sox begin their season with six straight games, so the spot starter will be needed early. However, his first start will be against arguably the worst team in baseball.

The Miami Marlins are a certified mess. The team is under new ownership and is in full rebuild mode. After finishing 2017 with an underwhelming 77-85 record, the Marlins have gotten considerably worse. They sent away National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton as well as All-Star caliber players in Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, just to name a few.

This team is so talent-barren that the Pawtucket Red Sox could probably beat them. It really doesn’t matter if Brian Johnson, Hector Velasquez, or a random fan in the stands is the starting pitcher. The Red Sox are winning this one.

Second Run Through Rotation: Not Needed

Five games later, the Red Sox are scheduled to play the New York Yankees. The Yankees are the primary threat to the Red Sox chances of winning the AL East, and every game matters. However, even though the Yankees are five games later, the Sox don’t necessarily have to pitch their fifth starter.

The schedule gets a bit easier after starting the season with six straight games. The Sox have April 4th off, and then play every other day until facing the Yankees on April 10th. The Sox are currently set to have David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello pitch in the three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Team ace Chris Sale is scheduled to pitch the final game of the six-game opening stretch on April 3rd. This leaves Price, Pomeranz, and Porcello to handle the Rays. Thanks to the rest days, the Sox could skip the fifth starters turn in the rotation altogether.

This will almost certainly happen, as doing this wouldn’t force Sale to throw on short rest. On the contrary, Sale will actually be on a full week of rest due to all the days off. The Red Sox will have their top three pitchers set to face the rival Yankees, and it would be foolish to play a spot starter over Sale, Price, or Pomeranz.

The Next Two Runs Through the Rotation

Following their cozy stretch of three rest games in three days, things get hectic for the Red Sox. Boston’s set to play in 13 straight games, starting with their series against the Yankees. This type of run is very abnormal for April, and the spot starter will certainly be needed during this run.

It’s tough to imagine Wright being out any longer than the fourth run through the rotation, so this should be the last time the spot starter is needed. As things currently stand, the fifth starter is set to face the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels.

While neither one of these teams is in the elite level of, say, the Houston Astros, both teams are certainly capable of beating Boston. Each team boasts a solid group of talent led by one superstar. The Orioles have Manny Machado and the Angels have Mike Trout. Both players can dominate the best of the best, never mind the likes of the spot starters.

That being said, don’t chalk these two games up as losses. All three potential spot starters have shown that they can keep games competitive, and that’s all they need to do. As long as they don’t get shelled, the Red Sox team around them could easily be enough to steal a few wins.

Just Make It to the Bullpen

Image result for craig kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel should remain one of the best relievers in baseball

Image credit: SI.com

The spot starter won’t be asked to pitch a no-hitter, just to make it through the fifth inning. If they can hold opponents to three or four runs through five innings, then they’ve done their job. The Red Sox bullpen can take it from there, and they should be hard to hit.

While they don’t have the depth they had late last season, this Red Sox bullpen should still be one of the best. For the early innings, Matt Barnes has shown he can be a good bridge arm, so long as the pressure isn’t high. Nobody knows what roles Joe Kelly and Brandon Workman will have, but they’ve both proven capable of shutting down top talent with their fastballs. While he’s normally not an inspiring option, Heath Hembree is actually surprisingly amazing in April. Since 2016, he’s only allowed two earned runs in 21.2 innings.

If those four can make it to the eighth inning, Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrel can easily handle the rest. Smith looked like a difference maker in the eighth inning last season, albeit in minimal appearances. If he can build on his successful end to 2017, the Red Sox will have a great setup man.

And of course, Kimbrel will handle the ninth. One could argue that Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He certainly was last season, posting an absurd 126 strikeouts in 69 innings. He probably won’t be that good this year, but he’s still poised to be a top-five closer in baseball.

A Stronger Offense

Of course, the Sox had a great bullpen last year, but still weren’t always able to overcome sub par starts. This was mostly due an underwhelming offense. The Red Sox offense didn’t live up to its potential due to key injuries and underperformance by other players. Of course, David Ortiz‘ absence was a big part of last years limited offense.

Those problems should be a thing of the past. There’s no fully replacing David Ortiz, but the Red Sox have found their next big power bat in J.D. Martinez. That alone will give the Red Sox a better chance at coming from behind, but he won’t be the sole fix for the offense.

Hanley Ramirez battled through a shoulder injury all of 2017, and his health should be a huge boost for the roster. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts should bounce back from down years, and Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers should only get better in their second years. This probably won’t be the best offense in the league like it was in 2016, but it could easily be a top five unit.

Not the End of the World

Obviously, it’s never ideal to lose two starting pitchers before Opening Day. However, the Red Sox have built a strong roster that’s capable of handling those types of losses. They don’t need the spot starter to be great, just serviceable.

It’s not crazy to think that the Sox could pull off a win in two or even all three of the spot starter’s appearances. In years past, that wouldn’t have been likely. This year, thanks to a great four-man rotation, a strong bullpen, and a talented lineup, it can certainly be done.

 

Cover image courtesy of Florida Today.

BSE Week in Review

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Read through the articles that our talented writers have put together as we go back and review the Boston sports week and elsewhere. Also included are what other sport fans are saying about our articles, join in and be heard!!

@PatriotsExtra News

https://bostonsportsextra.com/nfl/2017/11/week-11-key-match-ups-score-predictions

https://bostonsportsextra.com/new-england-patriots/2017/11/super-bowl-xxxix-rematch

https://bostonsportsextra.com/nfl/2017/11/week-10-winners-losers

https://bostonsportsextra.com/new-england-patriots/2017/11/the-commish-on-the-ropes

@CelticsExtra News

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-celtics/2017/11/can-take-away-celtics-win-warriors

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-celtics/2017/11/boston-celtics-week-4

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-celtics/2017/11/brad-stevens-finally-win-coach-year

@RedSoxExtra News

https://bostonsportsextra.com/uncategorized/2017/11/jbjs-san-fran-suitors

https://bostonsportsextra.com/mlb/2017/11/cy-young-reaction-rotation-red-sox

https://bostonsportsextra.com/uncategorized/2017/11/twitter-stanton-sources-trusted

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/red-sox-build-offensive-machine

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/red-sox-greatest-second-basemen

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/red-sox-greatest-first-basemen-ever

https://bostonsportsextra.com/mlb/2017/11/jeter-send-stanton-red-sox

@BruinsExtra News

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-bruins/2017/11/bruins-tank-rest-season

https://bostonsportsextra.com/uncategorized/2017/11/bruins-journey-califonria

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-bruins/2017/11/boston-bruins-trade-zdeno-chara

 

News from other Sports Cities

https://bostonsportsextra.com/charlotte-hornets/2017/11/kemba-walker-deserves-respect

https://bostonsportsextra.com/uncategorized/2017/11/college-basketball-returns

https://bostonsportsextra.com/carolina-hurricanes/2017/11/panic-time-already-hurricanes

Armchair GM: How the Red Sox Could Build an Offensive Machine

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How the Red Sox Could Build an Offensive Machine

Two straight seasons with the Red Sox finishing first in the A.L. East, and two straight seasons barely making a dent in the ALDS.

Should the Red Sox keep waiting for consistency from their young players Bradley, Betts and Bogaerts? Should they hope one day they all click at once in the playoffs? Then, could the Red Sox finally make the run their payroll demands?

Or is it time to stop waiting? Should the Red Sox finally do away with the old, and bring in the new? 

The very thought has half of Sox Nation calling for my head, as the official unofficial Armchair General Manager of the Red Sox. This is not a democracy people! I appointed myself, and only I will dethrone myself! Before you go “Louis XVI” on me, allow me to entice you with an improved offense, because perhaps it’s time.

FIRST MOVE:

Let me start by saying I am not of the belief that JD Martinez will be leaving the National League. Had he been available in a hypothetical world, perhaps I make a different move, given the history of our President of Baseball Operations, and the flexibility that comes with being an organization like the Red Sox.

Jackie Bradley Jr. CF + Michael Chavis 3B + Alex Scherff P + Tanner Houck P

=

Giancarlo Stanton

 

First, allow me to dive into the haul that I have chosen for Giancarlo Stanton…

We know what Jackie Bradley, Jr. provides, so no need to discuss him. Michael Chavis, Alex Scherff and Tanner Houck, are three of the top five prospects in the Red Sox system. Yes, this is a lot, but allow me to break it down:

Michael Chavis has been playing the best baseball of his life in the Sox system, but is being blocked by Devers, he is an easy move.

I consider Alex Scherff to be a rather easy move as well, considering the Sox aren’t giving up their top prospect here, Jason Groome.

Tanner Houck could be special. He is the one that hurts here, hurts bad. He has ridiculous upside, but remember former Red Sox #1 pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza? The Sox gave him up for Pomeranz, and everyone was irate? He was pitching poorly for San Diego, and went on to have Tommy John surgery. I know, hindsight 20/20, but allow history to put it into perspective: Prospects are prospects, and Stanton will be crushing fifty bombs a season over the Monster for the next ten years (no bias here, I swear!!!).

Overall, it is a pretty hefty trade, the top five of the Red Sox farm is going to need some new faces for sure. They were able to keep their #1 prospect Jason Groome, (ace potential) and Sam Travis.

SECOND MOVE:

This next move seems almost too good to be true. Keep in mind, The Red Sox may need a Designated Hitter after next season, with Hanley most likely gone. Even with Stanton, and Pedroia, missing a substantial amount of time, there is a lack of power.

Xander Bogaerts SS

=

Brian Dozier 2B + Jorge Polanco SS/INF

 

Many will view this as the Red Sox giving up a young, and unbelievably talented SS, who was raised in their system. What do your eyes tell you? After watching the World Series, does slapping singles to right field look valuable on the big stage? 

What I will call it, is the Red Sox trading a young SS who has hit his ceiling. I hate to say it, but the power isn’t coming.  Stop having false hope. He has yet to show up in the playoffs. In return, a power hitter in a contract year (good thing), could play 2B while Pedroia is out, then play Designated Hitter, or potentially First Base, if the Red Sox work at it. Given Dozier’s small ($6M) cap hit this season, the way is paved for the Red Sox to pay him well, once Hanley is off of the books after next season, when Dozier is up for a renewal.

Jorge Polanco showed his undeniable upside, as he tore up the majors towards the end of the season. His hot ending was needed after he struggled during the beginning and middle. At the very least, he could play 2B while Pedroia is out, or be a depth player while he hones his craft.

THIRD MOVE:

The Red Sox could go with Jorge Polanco as their full-time SS, but I see them wanting to develop more first. With that being said…

Re-sign Eduardo Núñez SS/3B/2B/OF

 

The Red Sox have their starting SS, for probably the next three seasons. Núñez was obviously a hit with fans, due to his amazing production. Putting Núñez’s speed atop the lineup with Betts, Stanton, and Dozier, is mouth-watering.

CONCLUSION:

This new-look offense certainly has some sparkle to it.  Adding Stanton and Dozier provides stability in the power department, while at the same time shores up the DH position, after Ramirez is gone. Dozier could also play 2B, while Pedroia is out. Núñez at full-time SS, for likely three years, gives the Sox time to either draft, or prepare, Jorge Polanco for the gig. This offense remains young, but gains powerful veterans to help put them over the top. 

 

C – Sandy Leon/Christian Vazquez

1B – Hanley Ramirez/Brian Dozier

2B – Dustin Pedroia

3B – Rafael Devers

SS – Eduardo Núñez

LF – Andrew Benintendi

CF – Mookie Betts

RF – Giancarlo Stanton

DH – Hanley Ramirez/Brian Dozier

 

Will Jeter Send Stanton To Red Sox?

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Red Sox Stanton Talks Heating Up

According to the Miami Herald, the Red Sox Stanton talks are “heating up.” Dombrowski told the Boston Herald he could not comment on any trade talks at this time. Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox may have to give up. They really do need a power hitter, after missing David Ortiz. The question is, who has to go in order to get Stanton? The Red Sox would probably have to send them Jason Groome, Jackie Bradley Jr., and either Devers, or Nunez.

Will Andrew Benintendi Stay Or Will He Go?

Will Andrew Benintendi be in a Red Sox uniform next season? I sure hope so. You really don’t want to give up Benintendi. He is a great asset to the team, and has a future as a player. The Red Sox want to win, they aren’t in a rebuilding stage at this point. The Marlins are rebuilding. Stanton has made it clear he wants to win now, he doesn’t want to be on a rebuilding team. The other three teams interested in Stanton are the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals.

Stanton’s Contract?

The Red Sox have to figure out if Stanton has a no-trade clause. With any trade for the outfielder, they have to deal with the $295 million owed over the next 10 seasons remaining on his contract. He can opt out after the 2020 season. The Red Sox hit the fewest home runs in the American League last season, a power bat would help their lineup greatly. Stanton has a better shot of winning with the Red Sox, with a new manager. They have the pitching, and really have controlled the division the last two seasons.

Red Sox Need The Bat In The Middle Of There Lineup

With Aaron Judge in the middle of the Yankees lineup, it’s clear the Red Sox need a big bat. Otherwise, they could find themselves in the wild card spot come next postseason.