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What to Do with Craig Kimbrel

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Another night; another heart attack brought on by Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but another win. This has become commonplace in close Red Sox victories this postseason, as Kimbrel has been a disaster on the mound, but has ultimately finished out each game successfully; somehow.

Kimbrel appears to be a disaster waiting to happen, so what should the Red Sox do with him moving forward?

Pitch Him In Lower Leverage Situation

I think Kimbrel needs to be taken out of the closer role, at least temporarily. He absolutely cannot be trusted right now. Even if the next game is close, I would use other pitchers in the late innings.

If there is an opportunity in the near future to pitch Kimbrel in a game that isn’t very close, the Red Sox should take it. I’m not sure if nerves are playing a factor, they likely are, but Kimbrel can barely find the strike zone.

Maybe working in a lower leverage spot Kimbrel can find the strike zone. Maybe he won’t be able to, but you can’t have a guy throwing ball after ball trying to close out games.

There have been multiple times this postseason where Kimbrel has been brought on to protect a three-run lead and hasn’t thrown strikes. In that situation, the only goal is to throw strikes; a home run can’t beat you, throw the ball over the plate and make them work for it. Kimbrel has been giving the opposition baserunners without much fight.

Kimbrel’s Struggles

Craig Kimbrel has pitched in four games this postseason and allowed the opposition to score in all four. Just let that sink in for a moment.

His ERA is standing at 8.44 after last night and he has put 13 baserunners on in only 5.1 innings pitched. 13! Kimbrel has walked five batters and hit two as he struggles to locate his pitches. On numerous occasions he has yanked his fastball, missing so far outside the catcher is left reaching as far as he can to corral it. Other times, his breaking ball is a wild pitch waiting to happen. He has been playing with fire and somehow has yet to be fully burned. It’s only a matter of time if something is not done.

In game four of the ALDS, pitching with a three run lead, Kimbrel walked two batters and hit another. He threw 28 pitches to get three outs, less than half of them going for strikes. He came about as close to blowing that game as one could without actually blowing it.

His next outing he gave up back-to-back two out hits before a fly ball from Alex Bregman nearly tied the game.

Last night was another heart attack, walking three batters and hitting another. He faced 11 batters to close out the three run lead. Kimbrel has now thrown a whopping 101 pitches in his four postseason appearances. And then there is this:

Other Options

Despite everyone being worried about the Red Sox bullpen entering the postseason, Kimbrel has been the problem. Others have pitched very well, excluding Brandon Workman. Workman shouldn’t pitch unless the game is a blowout, he’s the only guy that’s been worse than Kimbrel.

Ryan Brasier struggled in his first postseason appearance but did not allow a run. He seemed to have cleared his postseason jitters with that performance because he has been nails since. Brasier is up to seven scoreless innings over seven appearances.

Matt Barnes has also come up big, netting a big strike out looking to end the seventh last night. Barnes has now thrown 5.2 shutout innings over six appearances this postseason. These are currently the Sox two most trustworthy relievers, like it or not. At least for now, they should be getting the highest leverage spots.

In addition to them, others are also performing well. Heath Hembree has thrown 3.2 shutout innings, albeit not in any tight spots. Joe Kelly has stepped up his game, showing the good side of his pitching. Kelly has allowed one run over 5.1 innings without issuing a walk. The strike throwing is refreshing.

Ideally Kimbrel is the ninth inning guy; he’s been doing it a long time and it helps set up the bullpen better. But for the moment, he can not be trusted with the way he is throwing, and the Red Sox need to try someone else.

Hot Date in Houston for the Sox

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Red Sox seek redemption in the 2017 ALDS

Well the Sox just ended the regular season with a four-game series against the Houston Astros. Houston grabbed three of four from the Sox in Fenway. Now, starting Thursday at 4 pm ET, these two clubs meet again for at least three more contests in the ALDS. The Astros won this years season series 4-3 and outscored Boston 35-22 in those seven games. Houston may appear to have an edge, but we all know the MLB playoffs are a crap-shoot.

Houston certainly has the better offense, ranking first in the AL in runs scored with 896. Boston scored 785, not nearly as many as Houston, but still good for sixth in the AL. The Red Sox pitching staff has an edge over Houston with the team ERA for the year standing at 3.70. Houston’s team ERA stands significantly higher at 4.12. While both teams have similarly talented starting rotations, the pitching advantage for Boston comes from their phenomenal bullpen. The Sox ranked 2nd in the majors this year with a 3.15 bullpen ERA. Houston’s bullpen was far worse, with a 4.27 ERA which ranked them 17th in the majors.

ALDS Game 1- Sale vs Verlander

Image result for chris sale

Mouths water over this exquisite pitching match up. Sale and Verlander are undoubtedly two of the very best pitchers in baseball. Sale has the better ERA (2.90) but Verlander comes into the playoffs as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The Sox lefty threw an MLB-leading 214.1 innings this year. Verlander racked up the innings as well with 206. It appears Verlander may have handled the physical stress a little better, as his performance improved as the season went on. For Sale, it was the opposite.  He seemed unhittable until the end of the season when his numbers started to fall off. Sale’s ERA over the last month of the season was 3.72, not great for his standards, but still pretty solid. He was under a lot of scrutiny for his poor performance but he actually allowed 0 ER in three of his final six starts. As I mentioned, Sale lead the entire league in innings pitched.  So his poor late-season numbers were likely a result of fatigue. He last pitched on September 26th, so he should be plenty rested come Thursday’s series opener.

Verlander Finishes Strong

Verlander also put together an exceptional year, but very unlike Sale’s season. Houston’s new ace had a rough start to the season with a pre-all star break ERA an uncharacteristic 4.73. This may have had something to do with being on one of the worst teams in baseball (Detroit Tigers). As expected, Verlander was much improved in the second half, posting a 1.95 ERA after the All Star break. He was especially exceptional in the last month of the season, earning five quality starts in as many tries and posted a 1.06 ERA to go along with a 0.65 WHIP. Verlander’s main advantage in this match up is experience.  He has 16 career post season starts and Sale has none. Verlander is 7-5 with a with a 3.39 ERA in his post season career. expect game one to be a low scoring affair despite the high powered offenses.

ALDS Game 2- Pomeranz vs Keuchel

 

Image result for dallas keuchel stats

Another great pitching match up here in game two. Many teams around the league would love to have Pomeranz or Keuchel serving as a backup to their ace. Pomeranz has put together a career year posting a 3.32 ERA on the season. A reason for concern for the Sox is that the Astros Lineup is stacked full of great right handed hitters. Houston’s lineup features the league batting title champ (Jose Altuve), Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yuliesky Gurriel, all righ- handed batters. However, Pomeranz has handled them well this year. In two starts Pomeranz has thrown 12.1 innings while allowing just seven hits and two ER. Houston batters are hitting only .245 with just eight extra base hits in 102 at bats vs Drew. Boston will need this display of dominance from Drew if they want the win.

Like Sale, Keuchel was scorching hot to start the season, going 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Unfortunately for Houston, Keuchel found himself on the DL in June due to a neck injury. He returned in July and struggled mightily, posting a 5.05 ERA in six starts. However, Keuchel did seem to find his groove in August as he went 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. The bearded lefty seems healthy and locked in as we enter the ALDS. Prepare for another low scoring game in game two.

 

ALDS Game 3- Morton vs Porcello?

Image result for rick porcello

 

The official pitching match ups have not been posted but this is who I imagine game three will feature. The third post-season starter position for the Red Sox is up for grabs between Doug Fister, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello. I believe Porcello is the best option, despite having a disappointing year after winning the 2016 AL CY Young. I am ruling Doug Fister out of the equation due to a horrific final month which he had an ERA of 6.85. While E-Rod has slightly better numbers than Porcello this year, the difference is not enough to overcome his lack of experience. Porcello has certainly not lived up to expectations, but his numbers are skewed by some really poor starts. The quality starts are still there, but the bad ones have just been really bad. Rick has thrown at least 6 innings in 26 of his 33 starts. He has allowed three ER or fewer in 19 starts this year and even has two complete games. If the good version of Porcello shows up for the Red Sox then they have a clear advantage here in game three. Veteran Charlie Morton has put together a career year for Houston in his 10th year in the league. Morton has won 14 games and has an ERA of 3.62. I am leaning towards Houston electing Morton due to his impressive final month which he posted an ERA of 2.54 in 28.1 innings of work. This match up will really come down to Porcello pitching to his potential and keeping his sinker down in the zone.

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

 

Astros-Red Sox Positional Breakdown

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On Thursday the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will start the best-of-five ALDS series. These two teams closed their regular seasons facing each other, so they had plenty of time to get acquainted. This series means a little more of course, and the two teams will pull out all stops to try and advance. Which team has the advantage at each position?

Starting Pitching

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros throws against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 27, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The Astros’ trade for Justin Verlander right before the waiver deadline has shored up their rotation. After a sub .500 month of August, people doubted the Astros’ legitimacy as a World Series contender. Behind Dallas Keuchel, their rotation had question marks. Lance McCullers got hurt after a hot start and hadn’t been pitching well since. Then Verlander arrived. Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA for the Astros and they bounced back to go 21-8 from there on out. With Verlander and Keuchel at the front, the Astros have two aces. McCullers has been struggling, but Brad Peacock has had an excellent season for them, winning 13 games with an ERA of 3.00 and 11 strikeouts per nine. He would seem to be a fine option to slot in at number three.

The Red Sox have a Cy Young candidate in Chris Sale at the top. Following him is Drew Pomeranz, who somewhat quietly has put himself in a position for a potential top five finish in the Cy Young vote himself. Beyond that, though, the Red Sox have many questions. No one is quite sure yet who will be their #3 or 4 starters, and none of the options are altogether appealing.

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen

The Astros are strong at the back end of their bullpen, but if forced to dip into the pen earlier in games they could face issues. Closer Ken Giles is excellent, and Chris Devenski had a heck of a year for them striking out 100 batters. Will Harris is another excellent reliever for them, posting an ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season. No one else is reliable though. Their next best reliever, Luke Gregerson, had an ERA of 4.57.

The Red Sox bullpen is strong, and rather deep with options. It features Craig Kimbrel, possibly the best closer in the game. Kimbrel struck out 126 of 254 batters faced this season! He’ll be setup by Addison Reed, and possibly Joe Kelly and Carson Smith. Those are some solid pitchers, maybe not quite as good as the Astros setup men, but good. After that, the Red Sox depth shows much better. They have many quality options for relievers to make the roster, unlike the Astros whose fourth best wouldn’t make the Red Sox roster.

Advantage: Red Sox

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after beating the Houston Astros and winning the AL East Division at Fenway Park on September 30, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Catcher

The two teams differ quite a bit at catcher. The Astros will pretty much just feature Brian McCann, while the Red Sox have two catchers in Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon who should both get playing time. McCann is a low-batting-average hitter with good pop, whereas the Sox have Vazquez who batted .290 but with just five home runs. On the defensive side they are even more different. McCann is one of the worst defensive catchers in the league,  who only threw out eight of 62 would-be base stealers. That 13% caught stealing rate pales in comparison to Christian Vazquez’ 42% and Sandy Leon’s 37% clip. Vazquez and Leon combined to throw out 39 base runners.

Advantage: Red Sox

First Base

The Astros have highly touted Cuban import Yuli Gurriel playing first. Gurriel had a nice first full season in the Majors, batting .299 with 18 homers and 43 doubles. He actually batted over .300 in every month except for May.

The Red Sox’ Mitch Moreland batted only .246, but thanks to his ability to draw walks, his .326 on base percentage is actually only six points behind Gurriel’s. He out- homered Gurriel 22-18, but his slugging percentage still lags behind. Moreland is probably better with the glove, having committed just five errors after winning the Gold Glove last season, but it’s not enough to make up the difference.

Advantage: Astros

Second Base

Altuve

Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros bats during a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 13, 2017 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Dustin Pedroia is a high contact, good average hitter who is also an excellent defender. As much as I love Pedey, this is no contest.

Jose Altuve led the league with 204 base hits, becoming the first player ever to lead his league in hits in four straight seasons, collecting 200+ in each of them. Altuve came in third in the MVP vote a year ago and has a strong case for winning it this season. He led the league in hitting with a .346 average, while also popping 24 homers despite being 5’6″. Oh, he also stole 32 bases and missed reaching 40 doubles for the fourth consecutive year by just one double. He is one of the absolute best players in the league.

Advantage: Astros

Third Base

This is a fascinating match up. Both teams have a very good, young player at the position. Alex Bregman was the second overall pick in the 2015 draft and made the Majors by the next year. This year he batted .284 with 19 home runs and an .827 OPS.

Red Sox Rafael Devers has long been considered one of the highest upside players in the minor leagues, and he’s still only 20! In 58 games Devers matched Bregman’s .284 batting average while cracking 10 homers and posting an .819 OPS. Their numbers are almost identical and both are very highly touted.

Advantage: Push

Shortstop

Carlos Correa had been a fine shortstop his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year in 2015 and hitting 20 homers in both seasons. He took a step forward this year though, showing he could contend for best shortstop in baseball for many years to come. Correa batted .315 with an excellent .941 OPS this season.

As for the Red Sox, they have a very talented shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, but one who is maddeningly inconsistent. Bogaerts had a fantastic first half last season, only to fall way off in the second half. This year he again started hot before cooling off. At seasons end he had only batted .273 with 10 home runs while also making numerous baserunning mistakes. This is no contest.

Advantage: Astros

Left Field

The Astros have a variety of guys they play here, and Marwin Gonzalez may be the one they use. He has played all over however, and like Eduardo Nunez for the Sox, could be used in a variety of places. Cameron Maybin was aquired from the Angels to play outfield. He is adept at stealing bases, but his hitting prowess leaves something to be desired.

The Sox have a rookie to get excited about for years to come in Benny Biceps. He might not be as good now as he will be, but he is still a very good player already. Benintendi hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases this season, the first rookie left fielder to accomplish that since Barry Bonds 30 years ago.

Advantage: Red Sox

Center Field

The Red Sox will usually have the advantage in the field here. Jackie Bradley is a wonderful defensive outfielder, routinely making spectacular throws and catches. He isn’t bad with the bat either, a bit inconsistent, but he gets the job done.

The Astros though have George Springer, a guy who hit 34 home runs this year. Springer also batted .283, showing he isn’t just a power hitter. His .889 OPS dwarfs Bradley’s .726 mark.

Advantage: Astros

Right Field

The Astros play former Red Sox Josh Reddick in right field, and he actually had one of his best seasons. Somehow, Josh Reddick batted .314 this year; not sure where that came from. Despite a down year from Mookie Betts, this isn’t really a contest. Betts almost won the MVP last year and is a very good fielder to boot. He hit 46 doubles this year and drove in 102 runners. His season may have left a bit to be desired, but the talent difference between these two is rather large.

Advantage: Red Sox

Mookie

Mookie Betts #30 of the Boston Red Sox reacts as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of a game against the Houston Astros on September 30, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Designated Hitter

Hanley Ramirez had a very disappointing follow up to his 2016 campaign, reverting back to the guy we saw in 2015 who swings wildly for the fences in every at bat. He only hit .242 and killed many rallies. He did manage to hit 23 home runs though, which is more than we can say for the Astros’ Carlos Beltran. Beltran, showing all of his 40 years, batted just .231 with 14 home runs and a devilish .666 OPS.

Advantage: Red Sox

Utility

I’m making a utility spot for the aforementioned Marwin Gonzalez and Eduardo Nunez. Both will probably play in more games than they won’t…if Nunez is healthy that is. Marwin Gonzalez had an out-of-nowhere breakout season. He batted .303 with 23 homers and 90 RBI this season, by far his best season to date. Nunez really helped kick start the Red Sox lineup after being acquired from the Giants, batting .321 with 8 home runs and a near .900 OPS for the Red Sox. Nunez’ Red Sox numbers extrapolated over a season would be similar to what Gonzalez has done, but is he healthy?

Slight Advantage: Astros

Final Analysis

So the final breakdown totals come to five advantages for the Astros, five advantages for the Red Sox, and two pushes. These teams are looking pretty even when it comes to which team has the advantage at each position. The Astros did win 99 games to the Red Sox 93 and finished the year stronger. They also have home field, so the overall advantage would have to go slightly to them, but this could be a good ALDS matchup. Sit back, watch, and hopefully enjoy.