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Bruins or Lightning- Who Owns the Atlantic?

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The Tampa Bay Lightning took the league by storm in the first half of the season, but the Bruins have clawed their way to just four points back of the Atlantic Division lead. Just as it’s been all season, it looks like the Bruins and Lightning will finish with the top two seeds. Who comes in first is still up for grabs. They’re both powerhouse teams and the numbers leave plenty of room for debate over who’s more dominant.

Bruins’ Stats

Both teams share a similar goal differential, with the Lightning at +58 and the Bruins at +56. But the numbers adding up to these are drastically different. As usual, the Bruins have been a solid defensive team, allowing just 177 goals. This is the second lowest in the league behind only Nashville, who has given up 172. Defense has been a consistent strength for the B’s over the last several years and this time the scoring is right on par. They’re currently sitting at sixth in the league in goals for.

It looks like the Bruins are about to finish in the top 10 of the two most important categories. Their special teams have been solid as well, also cracking the top ten in both power play and penalty kill. They’ve converted on 22.3% of power play opportunities, while posting the third best penalty kill in the league at 82%. This is huge considering how chippy playoff games can be, and surely adds to the team’s confidence.

Tampa Bay by the Numbers

Although that all sounds promising, the Lightning are still the top offensive team in the league. They’ve been responsible for 254 circulating red lights this season, mainly thanks to Kucherov, Stamkos, Gourde and Point. These four players alone account for 44% of the teams scoring. Their power play ranks second in the league at 24%, but their penalty kill is among the worst in the league. They’ve only managed to kill off 76.8% of penalties this season, the second lowest out of any playoff-bound team.

Tampa is less of a force on the defensive side but still can’t be overlooked. Victor Hedman is having another unbelievable year with 52 points and a +26 rating, while Mikhail Sergachev has enjoyed a stellar rookie season. The recent acquisition of Ryan McDonagh is huge, too. He’s a great two-way defenseman and eats up 23 minutes a night. Vasilevski got off to a hot start but he’s had his recent struggles. He currently has .922 save percentage to go with a GAA of 2.53. These are solid numbers, but neither stat cracks the league’s top 10. He’s good, but beatable. The real challenge is dealing with Tampa’s star players up front.

Bruins vs. Lightning

These two teams lead the Atlantic, but you can make a case that either one of them is the best team in the entire league.  The main take away from their stats is that Tampa relies more on the offense while the bruins are more balanced. This makes the Lightning extremely susceptible to hitting a wall in the playoffs and puts a lot of pressure on Stamkos and Kucherov.  They’ve been great all year, but slumps are inevitable.  With a mediocre defense, these guys need to stay on top of their game. The Bruins’ versatility allows for a bit more breathing room.  Whether it’s Marchand putting up four points, Tuukka pitching a shutout, or the penalty kill going 7/7, the B’s always seem to find a way to win.  They can beat any team, on any night, in any way.

Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand, top, celebrates after his goal off Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price (31) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Boston, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2018. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Who the better team is remains up for debate. They’re currently at second and third in the league-wide standings, with Tampa at 102 points and the Bruins with 99. Time will tell if the Bruins can catch them in the standings, but they won the season series.  They’ll play them once more in Tampa on April 3rd, but the B’s won the first two meetings by scores of 3-2 and 3-0.  With all things considered, I might have to give the edge to the Bruins.  It’s almost too close to call, but Tampa’s 76.8% penalty kill draws a huge red flag.  They might have the edge in scoring, but that’s atrocious.

The Bruins have also remained steady since December while the Lightning got off to a hot start and cooled down from there.  They won 16 of their first 20 games, but the Bruins have been more consistent down the stretch.  I didn’t think I’d say this in October, but the Bruins very well may be the best team in the Atlantic.

 

Cover image courtesy of The Tampa Bay Times.

Is Brad Marchand a Hart Trophy Contender?

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Hart Trophy Contenders

As of now it appears that Nikita Kucherov, Taylor Hall, and Nathan Mackinnon are the frontrunners for this year’s Hart Trophy. Kucherov leads the league with 88 points and has dominated all season. Hall and Mackinnon have also had career years, yet both teams remain on the playoff bubble. Many fans and analysts have actually used this to strengthen the argument for both of them. They say that their individual production is essentially the only reason New Jersey and Colorado are in contention. Heading into the season neither team had high expectations, so this is a valid point. But can’t the same logic be applied to Brad Marchand and the Bruins? If we’re talking about one player stepping up his game and allowing his team to defy expectations, Marchand absolutely needs to be in the conversation.

By the Numbers

They made the playoffs last year, but the Bruins have been on the outside-looking-in for a while now in terms of being a cup contender. Prior to the season, the consensus was that the Bruins would be a bubble team come the latter part of the season. One set of preseason rankings from www.sportingnews.ca even had the B’s listed as the 20th best team in the league, falling behind Montreal, Ottawa, and Carolina.

But with Marchand continuing his dominance that we saw last season this prediction has become far from accurate. He leads the team with 67 points despite having played in 13 less games than the second leading scorer, David Pastrnak. This averages out to 1.29 points per game, good for fourth in the league and only 0.05 points per game behind Nathan Mackinnon, the current leader. This is something that the Bruins haven’t seen in a while. If Marchand can keep this pace up, he’ll have the most points per game by a Bruin in a single season since Joe Thornton back in 2002-03. Thornton managed to put up 101 points through 77 games that year, and even those numbers narrowly beat Marchand’s current points per game at 1.31.

We all know what Marchand’s reputation is outside of Boston- he’s pretty much hated unanimously. Fans, players, coaches, analysts- you name it, they all can’t stand him. He’s been suspended six times throughout his career and hasn’t made too many friends around the league. He’s always straddled the line between “chippy” and down-right unacceptable. But the effect that it has on the team is overblown.

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Marchand for MVP

So far this season Marchand has 53 PIMs in 53 games. This doesn’t even crack the NHL’s top 50 and averages out to just one minor penalty every other game. For some teams this would cause problems, but the Bruins penalty kill is more than capable of weathering the storm. They’ve managed to kill off 82.4% of penalties this season, good for 10th in the league. We also can’t look past how this time in the box relates to his style of play. Unlike most scorers he plays his best hockey while trying to get under the opposing teams skin. Scoring and being a pest are a package deal, and he’s equally talented in both categories.  With the amount that he throws the other team off their game, I’ll take a minor penalty every other night.

Even despite all this, it remains unlikely that Marchand will take home the Hart Trophy.  He’s missed too much time with suspensions and his reputation has taken a bigger hit than ever.  Keep in mind that the Hart trophy is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association. Most of them probably hate him too.  But his production when in the lineup has been just as good as anyone in the NHL, and it shows with his 1.29 points per game.  He’s part of the best line in hockey and has given Bruins fans scoring that we haven’t seen in 15 years.  It’ll be interesting to see if Marchand can pad his stats down the stretch and become more of a solidified Hart Trophy candidate.