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Red Sox-Yankees ALDS Preview Extravaganza

It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.

I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:

Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.

Starting Lineup

The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.

And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.

The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.

The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.

Slight Edge: Yankees

Starting Pitching

Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale

Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price

Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…

Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)

Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)

Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen

I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.

The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).

The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.

Major Edge: Yankees

Bench X Factor

Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:

Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.

For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.

Edge: Red Sox

Manager

Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.

I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.

Edge: Red Sox

The Pick

I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.

But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?

RED SOX IN 5

The Atmosphere At Fenway Is Better Than Ever

I was in attendance with a packed house full of fans from both teams on Sunday’s 5-4 comeback win against the New York Yankees. The atmosphere was electric.

Both Masahiro Tanaka and David Price looked good in the beginning, which led to chatter from both fans. After Mookie Betts hit a solo shot over the monster in the 5th inning, Sox fans had plenty to celebrate. After the 4-run 7th inning, Yankee fans tried to get a ” Let’s go Yankees” chant. But, the Sox fans quickly overwhelmed them.

Late Game Emotions

The crowd got a little thinner after the 8th inning ended. The families with small children left early, as expected. By the time the top of the 9th ended, more red seats were open and empty. As the large group of fans watched with our rally caps, laughing at the New York fans with their Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez jerseys on, we witnessed yet again why you should never count this team out.

The stadium erupted throughout the bottom half of the inning, with Yankee fans jolted back down in their seats with anger, sadness, and disappointment. Someone once said, “Anything goes in extra innings.” The 10th inning did not disappoint. After the walk-off single other than Andrew Benintendi, the crown went nuts. It felt like the stadium was shaking. The adrenaline was pumping through everyone. The remaining Yankee fans left in flurries towards the gates.

A Memorable Walk Down Lansdowne

The victory walk around the park and the streets of Boston was great. The energy felt with hundreds of fans sharing the same emotions is something that will stick with me forever. This team is something special.

During the come from behind victory on Sunday night, the fans were more connected and in unity than they have been in quite some time.

Over the numerous amount of games that I’ve attended over the years, this one felt like a prelude to the World Series. Over the entire night, you could feel something special. This is what professional sports are all about. There was nothing political or anything else getting in the way – just an escape from the world we live in. Even if only for a couple of hours, the feeling was that no matter what Red Sox jerseys were being sported, the crowd was in unison.

Mookie

Red Sox Beat New York In Round One

The battle of David vs. Goliath was more of a thrashing, as Mookie, and Chris Sale lead the charge and beat the Yankees 14-1 .

While both teams sent their aces out in the first match up of the year, Luis Severino didn’t have a shot. Chris sale mowed down 8 while lasting 6 innings in a monstrous 14-1 win. This brings their season record to 9-1 while New York is sitting at 5-6 ( 4.5 games back.)

Mookie Betts went 4-4 while hitting a grand slam and collecting 4 rbis and drawing a walk. Hanley extended his hit streak to 8 games with a pair of hits and grabbing 3 rbis. To round off the top three hitters Andrew Benintendi went 2-3 with a triple and 3 rbis.

Luis Severino (2-1) now posts a 3.50 era with 20 strikeouts on the season. He had a rough night from the jump, his command was never well placed, and he never had the Red Sox hitters second guessing. His opponent, Chris Sale (1-0) now sports a 1.06 era while tallying 23 strike outs on the season. Sale had a polar opposite night than Luis, with great command and sending multiple Yankee fans home depressed.

Aaron Judge hit the Yankees only run in a 444 foot home run over center field. Giancarlo Stanton went 2-4 while striking out twice and notching a double out by the Green Monster. With Xander Bogaerts slated for the 10 day dl, Brock Holt and Tsu-Wei-Lin stepped in for the shortstop. Both infielders  providing great defense in tonight’s win.

Wednesday’s match-up is slated for 7:10 pm with the Sox sending David Price ( 1-0) 0.00 era, against New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (1-1) 2.92 era in what should be a good match up.  With Alex Cora keeping his powerful lineup well rested, it’s only a matter of time until we see which line up is sent out to the field tomorrow night. It’s Boston vs. New York round 2, with only 18 more meetings on the season, every game counts towards first place.