Tag Archives: National Football League Playoffs

NFL Championship Sunday Preview and Predictions

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The stage has been set for some of the most talented teams in football to compete in the Conference Championship. They devoted over 1,500 hours, or six days a week from August to January, to train for a shot at an appearance in Super Bowl LII. The postseason isn’t just an extension of the regular season, it’s what teams grind for all season. In the playoffs fans and players are shrouded by the fear that there might not be another week to play. One mistake could end a season. It’s go big or go home. Fans and their teams mesh together to create an electric atmosphere, all equally knowing what is at stake. Regular season stats are thrown out of the window. When faced with a win or go home situation adrenaline takes over, causing players to dig deeper than ever.

We have seen a multitude of spectacular moments already in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Patriots will appear in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship game and are searching for their sixth Super Bowl ring. Their opponents, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have shocked the league by steamrolling their way deep into the playoffs after several failed seasons. In the NFC the Vikings and Eagles will square off after both securing late fourth quarter wins last weekend. Unfortunately, two teams must go home after this Sunday. This guide includes tips for betting on this weekend’s NFL championship games. These are the match-ups that we will be talking about all week:

AFC Championship: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

For the past five seasons the Jaguars were a laughing stock in the NFL. From 2012 to 2016 they failed to eclipse five wins on the season. However this year the Jaguars were on a mission. They finished with a winning record for the first time since 2007; coincidentally the last time the team appeared in the playoffs. In a low-scoring affair the Jags were able to survive the Bills, winning 10-3 in the Wild Card round. Critics scoffed at the idea that they would surpass the Divisional game in Pittsburgh. Their low offensive output in the first round of the playoffs was deemed futile against one of the AFC’s premier squads.

Everyone doubted the Jaguars except for themselves. The Steelers spent the week preparing for the Patriots rather than their current opponent. They seemed to forget that the Jaguars’ defense had a field day on Ben Roethlisberger back in Week Five, where he was picked five times. Last weekend “Sacksonville” was able to secure a 45-42 upset victory over the Steelers behind their running back corps’ four scores. The Jags’ defensive nightmare that they create for offenses is always something to worry about.

The Patriots played exemplary football so far in the postseason. They are held to high expectations because they are always able to ascertain them. It’s always hard to figure out what the Patriots are planning going into each match-up. They have the offensive weapons to pick apart any defense. Interestingly enough Tom Brady is the only quarterback left in the playoffs who has won a Super Bowl ring. The Patriots have the poise and experience to make another deep playoff run.

What is the most admirable about them is that Bill Belichick can remove a vital player on the opposing team from the game. Consequently this always makes the opponent squirm and eventually sputter out as the Pats skirt on by for a win. That was the case for their Divisional game last weekend against the Titans. Running the football is the basis of the Titans’ offense, and without Demarco Murray the running back corps was slim. Play after play Derrick Henry slammed into a wall of defenders and was only able to pick up twenty-eight yards against the Patriots. On the other side of the field Tom Brady outplayed Titans defenders through the air. The Patriots sailed to an easy 35-14 victory.

The Patriots will have their work cut out for them against Jacksonville’s stingy defense. The key to keep them afloat is for their offensive line to have a repeat of last weekend. Against the Titans the o-line didn’t allow Brady to be sacked once. On the other side Blake Bortles is always unpredictable and Leornard Fournette has been a huge cog for the Jags’ offense. They must strike early and keep Brady off the field as often as possible to pull out a win. The first defense to break down will dictate who will win the AFC Championship.

Prediction: 27-17 Patriots

NFC Championship: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

The Vikings quietly had one of the best seasons in the league this year. Their defense was phenomenal behind Pro Bowlers Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes, and Anthony Barr. Also, despite all odds and injuries suffered on offense the Vikes were able to get to where they are today. The loss of rookie Dalvin Cook caused the run game to take a hit, but since then balanced out. Teddy Bridgewater, the team’s original starter, sat out with a brutal knee injury for one and a half seasons. His place was taken over by the man with the hot hand: Case Keenum. Keenum went from the bench in Los Angeles at the end of last season to a strong MVP candidate in Minnesota. Teams wrote him off but his leadership brought the Vikings to the conference championship for the first time since 2009.

In an insane chain of events the Vikings came out on top over the Saints 29-24 on the final play of the Divisional game. A last play touchdown by Stefon Diggs is now regarded as the Minneapolis Miracle.

The Eagles were the team to beat for the majority of the regular season. Their year was going perfectly up until when the injury bug took away their star quarterback (and probable MVP) Carson Wentz. Since then there has been a little turbulence for the Eagles since Nick Foles took the helm. The Eagles locked up the number one seed in the NFC despite losing Wentz, yet things felt different. The once dangerous offense the Eagles possessed became mundane. Those strikes down the middle of the field for huge gains became less common. Nick Foles has done what’s in his power to lead the Eagles through the playoffs, but their offense is not as dangerous as they once were weeks ago. Home field advantage has been a saving grace for the team.

The Eagles’ Divisional match up against the Falcons was a physical defensive bout. Though the Eagles failed to score a touchdown against the Falcons they snuck by with a 15-10 win. All credit for the victory goes to the defense, who shut down Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones.

The Eagles’ defense will be a huge test for Case Keenum and the Vikings. On the flip-side, the Eagles will have to put their running game into high gear to jump-start the offense. The key for this match-up will lie in the trenches. Foles will need a scapegoat to open up his passing game. Jay Ajayi also has to be a prime performer to make a dent in the Vikings’ defense. However Minnesota is one win away from being the first team to play in a Super Bowl that they are hosting, and they are going to fire on all cylinders.

Prediction: 20-14 Vikings

 

Follow Mike Clement on Twitter @MClementMedia

Cover photo courtesy of Todd Rosenberg/NFL.

Uncovering Patriots Weaknesses

Uncovering New England’s Offensive Weaknesses- Part 1

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Introduction

Every football team has at least one weakness. Honestly, it may be fair to say two weaknesses. Usually one on the offensive side of the ball, and one on defense. This article I will be dissecting any potential weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball.

Hopefully you can relate to this: when the Patriots have been eliminated from the playoffs, it damn near always catches me off guard. I can’t remember a playoff game that the Patriots have lost and I wholeheartedly expected them to lose. That just doesn’t happen. Us Patriots fans have built this expectation to win the Super Bowl every single season, and anything short of that is a failure. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have instilled this into us.

Year after year winning Super Bowls or being in contention has plateaued our standards at ‘Super Bowl or bust’. So, when the Patriots are in fact eliminated from contention, I am initially in a stage of anger and shock. Naturally, because of how great the Patriots always are, when they are eliminated, it seems like a blown opportunity. A few days after the loss, ‘hindsight 20-20’ becomes reality to me. I begin to understand why they lost, and that their weaknesses couldn’t be masked by Brady and Bill.

As a Patriots fan, even with the weaknesses that the team has, it becomes easy to overlook them or minimize them because “we have Brady and Belichick”. By the end of this article, I intend for you to fully understand the Patriots offensive weakness.

My Attempt at an Non-Bias Uncovering of the Patriots’ Offensive Weakness

Whether you want to use statistics or the eye test, the Patriots’ offense this season has been elite. Arguably they are the best in the NFL. They finished top-2 in total yards, points for, turnovers lost, and total first downs. This New England offense seems like one without a weakness.

One may in fact have a point in believing that, had the Patriots never traveled to Miami this season. In by far the worst offensive performance of the season, the Patriots were 0-11 on third down conversions. A usual staple of success for the Patriots became what derailed the team that week.

Brady Isn’t Connecting with His WRs

Taking a deeper look at what went wrong that game, it became clear that the Patriots could not throw the football down field. To be fair, they didn’t have Rob Gronkowski, who was serving a one-game suspension. Without Gronk up the middle demanding two sets of eyes, there was nothing the Patriots could do to free up their wide-receivers vs Miami’s press-man-coverage. Xavien Howard led the Miami CB group through to a no-hitter vs Tom Brady and company. Playing straight up man-coverage, with a plethora of different blitzing schemes, the Patriots were helpless.

Heading into the next week vs Pittsburgh for the biggest game of the season, New England clearly had to clean up its act. A team that usually plays zone-coverage, played tight man-coverage vs New England, following the blueprint that Miami put together the week before. The difference this time, was Rob Gronkowski, who ate up the Pittsburgh defense. While it was nice to see Gronk back, the Patriots still only completed nine passes to wide-receivers that game.

The next two games against the Bills and Jets, with the season all but locked up, the game plan seemed to revolve around running the rock. Opportunities to throw were still there, and so were the issues. Brady missed Cooks wide open deep down the field vs Buffalo that should have been a touchdown.

Cooks(36yd line) has the safety beat over the top.

An under-throw by Brady towards the middle of the field forced Cooks back inward, helping the safety catch up. Incomplete.

Against the Jets, Cooks stopped running too early, resulting in an incompletion that should have been a deep touchdown.

The Numbers

According to NFL Research, over the first 11 games this season, Tom Brady completed 42.3% of his passes of 20+ yards and had a TD/INT of 5/1. Over the last 5 games, Tom Brady has completed only 27.3% of his throws of 20+ yards and has a TD/INT of 0/3.

Through those first 11 games as well, Brandin Cooks averaged 79 yards per game. Over the last 5 games, however, Brandin Cooks has averaged 42.6 yards per game and has spit out his only two ‘under 20 yard’ games.

The Reason(?)

I want to tread lightly here, but maybe this bye-week is exactly what Tom Brady needs. I am not saying that Tom Brady is done, or seriously regressing, the G.O.A.T will probably win the MVP for crying out loud! What I am saying, however, is that Tom Brady only had to play a twelve game season last year. He had five weeks off. As fit as Tom Brady is, at age 40 the human body needs more time to recover. Tom Brady, to my estimations, has at least two years of great football left.

With that being said, he is going to have to rest more, and continue to nurture his body as he gets older, like anyone would. Tom Brady from weeks 12-16 threw at least one interception in each game. It was the first time he had thrown an INT in five straight weeks since 2002. This bye-week could indeed be what Brady’s body needs to help get him back on track.

It is also completely fair to credit this issue to injuries that transpired throughout the season. Losing Edelman in the preseason changed the entire dynamic of the offense. Before Hogan was knocked out with his shoulder injury, he was on pace for his best season. At the same time, Brandin Cooks was tearing up the field with his deep crossing and go routes. On top of that, Malcolm Mitchell, a Brady favorite, has been out for the entire season.

Hope

The good news is that both Hogan and Mitchell are likely to be back in the playoffs at some point. This would be crucial for the Patriots offense. To have weapons like Gronkowski and Lewis grouped with a dangerous wide-receiver group *that Brady trusts* could make this offense unstoppable. Right now, however, throwing outside is still a big weakness for this team.