Boston Sports Extra

The NFL is full of surprises around every corner. Nothing can be truly expected as the season progresses. The Raiders were predicted to make a deep playoff run, and they fell flat on their faces instead. Carson Wentz was prophesied to be this season’s MVP, and an ACL tear ruined those hopes for this year. More recently, the Baltimore Ravens were slated to make the playoffs. All they had to do was beat the seemingly uninspired Bengals and they would secure a playoff berth in Week 17. But the NFL can be a wicked mistress. The final offensive drive for the Bengals just so happened to be the dagger to secure a late win. The Ravens got knocked out the playoffs after their disappointing loss, and the Buffalo Bills were inserted in their place.

In Week 17 the biggest fans of the Bengals were the Bills. They had just secured a win in Miami, and awaited the conclusion of the game going on in Cincinnati. They did their part to get into the playoffs; the rest fell in the Bengals’ hands. The Bengals were eliminated weeks ago, but like they did with the Lions the week before, they aimed to crush the Ravens’ playoff hopes. A late touchdown from the Bengals sent the Ravens home early, and ushered the Bills into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Thank you, @Bengals. pic.twitter.com/HrJjuV5zWO

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 1, 2018

The Bills don’t want to just make a playoff appearance, they want to win a playoff match-up. That’s something the team hasn’t done since 1995. Their odds to make Super Bowl 52 has gotten a lot better from December to now. This Saturday the Bills will play their first game in January in over a decade in Jacksonville, home of the also playoff-starved Jaguars. Here’s how the Bills can upset the best defense and third seed this weekend:

Strike Early, Strike Often

The only way for the Bills to dismantle the Jaguars defense will be through running an up-tempo offense. On all cylinders the offense has to be no less than perfect. Tyrod Taylor needs to do what he does best: keep the defense guessing. He needs the green light to roll out of the pocket as much as he can. Taylor is a huge threat when he leaves the pocket. He can pull linebackers out of the play to become fixated on him and can fire over his head to a receiver left open on a drag route. If the linebacker plays back on the receiver, Tyrod can tuck the ball and punish the defense with a run. Extend the drive and tire out the defense, and in turn pressure Blake Bortles with less time to answer.

This game will come down to which team can cause a defensive breakdown. Both the Bills and Jaguars are defensively minded teams, so scoring early will set the tone of the game. Expect this game to be a low-scoring affair, so the Bills can capitalize by catching the opposing defense off guard early.

It’s Always Shady in Buffalo

There’s no question that the Bills would not be the same on offensive without their workhorse running back. Shady McCoy is a difference-maker in the Bills’ offense, and could make a splash against the Jags. McCoy is making progress with coming back early from an ankle injury he suffered in Week 17. Dr. David Chao claims McCoy can play through his injury, but worries about his production level:

Good sign that @CutonDime25 was dressed and out of boot.
Still slight hitch in gait walking.
Not impossible to play but effectiveness will be the question.
He is where I thought he would be from Sunday when carted off.https://t.co/7DImpOYqs7 https://t.co/oRWYYCWvEn

— David J. Chao – ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) January 4, 2018

If LeSean McCoy is active this week, it will be a huge plus for the Bills to have him in the backfield. It not only opens up room for Tyrod Taylor to operate, but it alleviates the need for the Bills to use their 23rd-ranked air attack. On the other end of the field, the Jaguars may be 1st in pass defense, but are 26th in stopping the run. McCoy is the team’s leading rusher at 1,138 yards. He is also Tyrod Taylor’s favorite passing target. If LeSean McCoy plays on Sunday, the Bills’ chances to trounce the Jaguars’ playoff run early increases.

Stop the Run

On defense, the Bills have to run rampant on Blake Bortles and the Jaguars. If the big guys up front can keep Leonard Fournette from having his usual productive game, then the Jags’ offense will waiver. The one thing that the Jaguars’ offense cannot afford is to become one-dimensional. Blake Bortles has not proven to be clutch whatsoever. He is one of the most important cogs of the offense, but is also one of the most inconsistent.

If the Bills can keep the ball is his hands and force Bortles to throw, they will be in great shape. Their secondary of Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, E.J. Gaines, and Micah Hyde is a scary ball-hawking group. Bortles can get into some trouble against this group, and if he throws a few interceptions that only helps the Bills gain advantage. Against the Bills’ back line throw across the middle if you dare, and throw deep if you can.

Media Credit:

www.sportingnews.com

www.buffalorumblings.com

Introduction

Every football team has at least one weakness. Honestly, it may be fair to say two weaknesses. Usually one on the offensive side of the ball, and one on defense. This article I will be dissecting any potential weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball.

Hopefully you can relate to this: when the Patriots have been eliminated from the playoffs, it damn near always catches me off guard. I can’t remember a playoff game that the Patriots have lost and I wholeheartedly expected them to lose. That just doesn’t happen. Us Patriots fans have built this expectation to win the Super Bowl every single season, and anything short of that is a failure. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have instilled this into us.

Year after year winning Super Bowls or being in contention has plateaued our standards at ‘Super Bowl or bust’. So, when the Patriots are in fact eliminated from contention, I am initially in a stage of anger and shock. Naturally, because of how great the Patriots always are, when they are eliminated, it seems like a blown opportunity. A few days after the loss, ‘hindsight 20-20’ becomes reality to me. I begin to understand why they lost, and that their weaknesses couldn’t be masked by Brady and Bill.

As a Patriots fan, even with the weaknesses that the team has, it becomes easy to overlook them or minimize them because “we have Brady and Belichick”. By the end of this article, I intend for you to fully understand the Patriots offensive weakness.

My Attempt at an Non-Bias Uncovering of the Patriots’ Offensive Weakness

Whether you want to use statistics or the eye test, the Patriots’ offense this season has been elite. Arguably they are the best in the NFL. They finished top-2 in total yards, points for, turnovers lost, and total first downs. This New England offense seems like one without a weakness.

One may in fact have a point in believing that, had the Patriots never traveled to Miami this season. In by far the worst offensive performance of the season, the Patriots were 0-11 on third down conversions. A usual staple of success for the Patriots became what derailed the team that week.

Brady Isn’t Connecting with His WRs

Taking a deeper look at what went wrong that game, it became clear that the Patriots could not throw the football down field. To be fair, they didn’t have Rob Gronkowski, who was serving a one-game suspension. Without Gronk up the middle demanding two sets of eyes, there was nothing the Patriots could do to free up their wide-receivers vs Miami’s press-man-coverage. Xavien Howard led the Miami CB group through to a no-hitter vs Tom Brady and company. Playing straight up man-coverage, with a plethora of different blitzing schemes, the Patriots were helpless.

Heading into the next week vs Pittsburgh for the biggest game of the season, New England clearly had to clean up its act. A team that usually plays zone-coverage, played tight man-coverage vs New England, following the blueprint that Miami put together the week before. The difference this time, was Rob Gronkowski, who ate up the Pittsburgh defense. While it was nice to see Gronk back, the Patriots still only completed nine passes to wide-receivers that game.

The next two games against the Bills and Jets, with the season all but locked up, the game plan seemed to revolve around running the rock. Opportunities to throw were still there, and so were the issues. Brady missed Cooks wide open deep down the field vs Buffalo that should have been a touchdown.

Cooks(36yd line) has the safety beat over the top.

An under-throw by Brady towards the middle of the field forced Cooks back inward, helping the safety catch up. Incomplete.

Against the Jets, Cooks stopped running too early, resulting in an incompletion that should have been a deep touchdown.

The Numbers

According to NFL Research, over the first 11 games this season, Tom Brady completed 42.3% of his passes of 20+ yards and had a TD/INT of 5/1. Over the last 5 games, Tom Brady has completed only 27.3% of his throws of 20+ yards and has a TD/INT of 0/3.

Through those first 11 games as well, Brandin Cooks averaged 79 yards per game. Over the last 5 games, however, Brandin Cooks has averaged 42.6 yards per game and has spit out his only two ‘under 20 yard’ games.

The Reason(?)

I want to tread lightly here, but maybe this bye-week is exactly what Tom Brady needs. I am not saying that Tom Brady is done, or seriously regressing, the G.O.A.T will probably win the MVP for crying out loud! What I am saying, however, is that Tom Brady only had to play a twelve game season last year. He had five weeks off. As fit as Tom Brady is, at age 40 the human body needs more time to recover. Tom Brady, to my estimations, has at least two years of great football left.

With that being said, he is going to have to rest more, and continue to nurture his body as he gets older, like anyone would. Tom Brady from weeks 12-16 threw at least one interception in each game. It was the first time he had thrown an INT in five straight weeks since 2002. This bye-week could indeed be what Brady’s body needs to help get him back on track.

It is also completely fair to credit this issue to injuries that transpired throughout the season. Losing Edelman in the preseason changed the entire dynamic of the offense. Before Hogan was knocked out with his shoulder injury, he was on pace for his best season. At the same time, Brandin Cooks was tearing up the field with his deep crossing and go routes. On top of that, Malcolm Mitchell, a Brady favorite, has been out for the entire season.

Hope

The good news is that both Hogan and Mitchell are likely to be back in the playoffs at some point. This would be crucial for the Patriots offense. To have weapons like Gronkowski and Lewis grouped with a dangerous wide-receiver group *that Brady trusts* could make this offense unstoppable. Right now, however, throwing outside is still a big weakness for this team.