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NFL Week 8: Key Match-ups, “Must Wins” and Score Predictions

Week 8 has arrived, and that means we are just about half way through the NFL’s regular season. It should be quite an eventful weekend, despite six teams being on bye. Week 8 features nine games between teams with at least three wins each and three divisional match-ups. I’ve highlighted some of the match-ups to keep an eye on. I’ve also called out which teams face a “must-win” scenario and score predictions.

Week 8 Key Match-ups

Denver Broncos (3-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

Football fans have had this game circled on their schedule since the 2018 schedule was released. This match up features the top two teams in the stacked AFC West division. Both teams come off of back-to-back losses after strong starts to the season. For the Broncos it’s far uglier. They have choked in two winnable games vs the NYG and @ LAC. The offense looks terrible during this mini skid, notching just 10 total points in the past two contests. Denver’s defensive unit has not been its usual dominant self over the past two games, allowing 44 points during the span. It is not yet panic time for the Broncos, but they need to improve soon if they want to make the playoffs. The Chiefs have also dropped two straight, but they were both tough games. The first was a one-possession loss vs the 5-2 Steelers. The second, a tough loss in Oakland on the last play of the game versus a team that was desperate for a win (and played like it). The Chiefs do not have much to worry about at the moment, but a win could really help separate them from the rest of the division.

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) @ Washington Redskins (3-3)

Another enticing match up here between two divisional foes. Both teams sit at 3-3 and are tied for second in the division behind the high-flying Eagles. Dallas is coming off a huge 40-10 win in which they looked like a force to be reckoned with. Then again, it was against the win-less 49ers. Washington has played quite well this year despite just a 3-3 record. They have had an extremely tough schedule as their losses have come on the road against the Chiefs and twice against the 6-1 Eagles. They have won some quality games this year vs OAK and @ LAR. Expect a high-scoring affair as Dallas is currently ranked 7th in the league in points per game while the Redskins are 11th. Buckle up.

Houston Texans (3-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-2)

Interesting match up here. Houston rolls into Seattle off their bye week. The Texans will attempt to keep their third-ranked high-powered offense going against Seattle’s number one ranked defense. The Texans look a little bit like the Seahawks did a few years back. They feature an elite defense and an offense lead by a young, mobile quarterback. The difference is that Houston is on the rise while the Seahawks have been flying high for years now. This would be a statement win for Houston, though it will be tough without their superstar defensive end JJ Watt, out for the season.

Teams in “Must Win” mode

It may be a little early to start claiming games to fall under the “must win” category. However, it certainly feels as though a few teams can not afford a loss this week if they want to be in the playoff race or at least meet their pre-season expectations.

Baltimore Ravens (vs Miami)

The Ravens currently sit at 3-4. Luckily they are second in the division but at 5-2 Pittsburgh is beginning to pull away. Their 3-4 record is a result of poor performance by QB Joe Flacco and a defense not playing to its potential. The Ravens limp into a week 8 match up at home vs the Dolphins. Backup QB Matt Moore will be starting for Miami, replacing Jay Cutler. If Baltimore can not win at home versus a mediocre team that is starting their back up QB then they do not deserve to be in the playoff hunt.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs Indianapolis)

Luckily for Cinci, their “must-win” game is against a terrible Colts team. Cinci is just 2-4, but I believe they are better than their record shows. They have talent on both sides of the ball but have not executed well this year. Dalton needs to play better and they need to establish a run game. This game should be a “gimme” and the Bengals need it as they continue to fall out of the playoff race rapidly. With Pittsburgh at 5-2, it is unlikely that they will have a shot at the division title, but a wildcard spot is not out of the question yet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina)

After just barely missing the playoffs and looking good for most of last season, the Bucs are just 2-4. It has certainly been a disappointing start to the season. Tampa really needs a win this week to stay competitive. It will be a tough game, but at home vs an inconsistent team that just lost to the Bears, it is a winnable game. The fact that it is a divisional game adds even more magnitude to this match up. The NFC South division is no joke as it feature the previous two NFC champions and a 4-2 Saints team. If the Bucs want to climb out of the NFC South basement, they will need a win this week against the Panthers.

Score Predictions

Miami – 16 Oakland – 24 LA Chargers – 23 Atlanta – 23 Carolina – 20 Dallas – 27 Denver – 13

Baltimore – 20 Buffalo – 23 New England – 34 NY Jets – 20 Tampa Bay – 27 Washington – 31 Kansas City – 27

Minnesota – 26 Indianapolis – 13 Chicago – 17 San Francisco – 14 Houston – 20 Pittsburgh – 24

Cleveland – 10 Cincinati – 24 New Orleans – 31 Philadelphia – 38 Seattle – 26 Detroit – 30

Week 7: Winners and Losers

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Week seven proved to be another eventful week in the football world. The outcome of Thursday’s game turned on the final play. Sunday’s schedule included seven divisional match-ups, five one-possession games, three shutouts and an overtime game. A perfect week for football fans. Like every other week during the NFL season, we saw some surprising outcomes. Quite a few teams gave their fans a big sigh of relief while other teams made it a Sunday to forget. Below are the NFL’s week 7 winners and losers.

Week 7 Winners

Oakland Raiders: 31-30 win vs Kansas City

Oakland really stepped up here in week 7 to get the win, and boy did they need it. A loss would have put the Raiders at 2-5 on the season and possibly out of the playoff race in the competitive AFC West division. Props to Derek Carr for an outstanding performance after last week’s dud. Carr threw for 417 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. Also, I can’t forget about Amari Cooper. It seemed like Cooper had been falling off. In his first six games he had three games of single-digit reception yards. On Thursday night he exploded for 11 catches, 210 yards and two touchdowns. These two clutch performances came against arguably the premiere team of the league through the first six weeks of the season. Next up for Oakland: @ Buffalo (4-2).

New England Patriots: 23-7 win vs Atlanta

Statement win here for the Pats. The defense has looked awful all year, allowing 30+ points in three of six games entering Sunday. Their pass defense ranked last in the NFL. Atlanta’s offense has not looked nearly as good as it did last year but certainly still a quality unit. The Pats defense held Atlanta to 233 passing yards, much of which came in garbage time when the game was already out of reach. More importantly, Matt Patricia’s unit surrendered just seven total points. Brady did his typical thing, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Dion Lewis had his best game of the year with 13 carries for 76 yards. That guy always seems to produce when called upon. Hopefully for New England fans, the Pats defense can build off of this effort. Next up: vs the Los Angeles Chargers who have won three straight (3-4).

Los Angeles Chargers: 21-0 win vs Denver

This may have been the biggest statement made by a team in the NFL in week 7. The Chargers suddenly look like they could be a top-12 team. After starting 0-4 in very frustrating fashion, the Chargers have suddenly won three straight. This win streak has them right back in contention in the AFC West or at least the wild card hunt. The wins during the streak were all tough games: W @ NYG, W @ OAK and W vs DEN. Rivers has stepped up in a big way for his team as he has thrown eight touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. Real test for the Chargers next week as they are @ New England (5-2)

Honorable Mentions:

Bears, Rams, Steelers, Dolphins, Browns…?

Week 7 Losers

Carolina Panthers: 17-3 loss @ Chicago

I am putting the Panthers first on this not-so-prestigious list and deservedly so. Carolina was showing signs that they may still play like the 2015 team. Then, BOOM, week 7 smacked them right in the face. Prior to the loss, Cam and company rattled off wins at New England and Detroit and then played well in a five-point loss to the 5-1 Eagles. Week 7 was a different story for the Panthers. They managed only three points against the 17th ranked defense in the league. THREE. Yes, it was an away game and yes Chicago’s defense is actually pretty decent but still, what a lousy performance. Carolina can not seem to find consistency or an identity. Next up: @ Tampa Bay (2-4)

Indianapolis Colts: 27-0 loss vs Jacksonville:

Pathetic performance by the Colts this week. I will give credit where it is due. The Jaguars played excellently on both sides of the ball. Bortles threw for 330 yards, Yeldon ran for 122 and Hurns had 101 receiving. Nice to see production from guys other than Fournette for once. Anyways, a 27-0 loss at home is inexcusable even without your franchise QB. The Colts O-line was horrendous and they allowed Jacksonville (SACKsonville) to sack Brissett 10 times. Star receiver Hilton once again did nothing with two catches for 27 yards. It will not get easier for Indi in the near future. There next three games: @ CIN, @ HOU and VS PIT.

Tennessee Titans: 12-9 loss @ Cleveland

Some may think that putting a team that won in the losers section is odd but if you consider the opponent it makes a little more sense. The Browns are 0-7 and 4-35 since the start of 2015. They are probably undoubtedly the worst team in the four major sports. Cleveland is the only team in sports that is consistently blown out game after game. They have been the laughing stock of the league in recent years. With all that said the Titans only managed to beat them by three points and it required overtime to do it. If you ask me, the Titans are lucky to have won this game. The Browns had multiple chances to win and they probably would have if they weren’t well… the Browns. Tennessee has got to be concerned as they have not been playing well as of late. In week 4 they got blown out 57-14 at Houston, then lost to the Cutler-lead Dolphins, then barely escaped the Colts at home. Luckily for the Titans, they are still 4-3 and are tied with Jacksonville for the division lead. Next up: vs Baltimore.

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

“Keep Pounding”: Explaining the Carolina Panthers Early Success

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“Keep Pounding,” a phrase all Carolina Panthers fans say when cheering on their hometown team. This phrase has been shouted quite often in the early going of 2017. Carolina currently holds a 4-2 record (1st in NFC South), and do not appear to be slowing down. Here are some reasons for the Panthers early success. A few may surprise you.

On the Road Again, Winning away from Carolina

Playing on the road has benefited the Panthers heavily thus far this season. They are currently 3-0 playing away from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, and Detroit Lions have fallen victim to Carolina’s road success.

As of right now, the Panthers average just under 28 points per game on the road. This number looks much better than the 15 points they average at home. Most teams in the NFL find their success on their home field, but the Panthers have flipped the script this year. Although this has been key in the early going, Carolina will look to improve their home record (1-2) in the second half of the season.

Where is SuperCam?

Quarterback Cam Newton has been under-performing early on in the 2017 season. Luckily, this has not affected the team too much. Carolina very well could be undefeated right now if Newton improved his efficiency. In their two losses, he has one passing touchdown, two rushing, and six interceptions along with an ugly 57% completion percentage.

If Newton’s play picks up in the second half of the season, more dabs and Superman poses could be on the horizon. The defense has been able to pick up his slack thus far holding opponents to 20 points per game. As the quarterback, he will need to lead this team if they want to be competitive come playoffs in January.

Young Guns Making Noise

The emergence of wide receiver Devin Funchess and Running Back Christian McCaffrey has been fun to witness. Funchess, in his third season, leads the Panthers receivers with three touchdowns so far. He is a 6’4”, 225 pound receiver with elite speed and jumping ability. Some of his catches this year have left fans with their jaws on the floor. Carolina very much needed Funchess to breakout this season and that is exactly what he has done.

When the Panthers drafted Run CMC out of Stanford with the eighth overall pick in the draft, fans immediately set high expectations. Although Jonathan Stewart has been solid in the backfield in the past, Carolina was ready for a new weapon.

Christian McCaffrey has great catching and running abilities which make him a dual threat back like Dion Lewis or James White. So far, CMC has posted 397 all-purpose yards and two receptions touchdowns. For a rookie, his effective production is a positive sign of things to come in the Panthers future.

Closing Thoughts

Through the first six games of 2017, Carolina has enjoyed early success. Their record puts them up with the likes of New England, the Kansas City Chiefs, among others. If Cam Newton can return to his Superman ways, watch out for this team in the second half of 2017.

Funchess and McCaffrey have proven to be solid youngsters for the Panthers and their production has been key. What the team has been able to do on the road has been a pleasant surprise. Carolina must tighten up their play in Charlotte if they want to continue their early success.

Fantasy Football week 7 Love/Hate

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Well, here it is, my first fantasy football post. In this segment I would like to provide some of my insight for week 7 of fantasy football. You are probably thinking, “Who is this guy, and why should I listen to him?” You are probably right. I am certainly no psychic, and I do not have a crystal football, but I may know a thing or two about fantasy football. Fantasy football is the primary reason why all my friends hate me. In the five years our fantasy football league has existed, I have won the championship four times. The one time I did not win the championship, I was the runner-up.

Before you accuse me of bragging, I ask you to understand that I am no hot-shot for my fantasy football talent. It’s not my coolest attribute, I don’t glue my eyes to my iPhone screen for hours every week trying to figure out which kicker to start. Maybe it would be cool if my talent was on the field rather than behind the computer screen at the click of a mouse, but sadly it does not.

*Note: The following players are not my top options or start/sit recommendations, but rather the players whom I feel could exceed or fall short of their expectations. I want to avoid the obvious ones. For example, if Le’Veon Bell had a mouth watering match up with the lousy Browns, he would not make the “Love” section due to the transparency of the match up.*

Players I Love in Week 7

Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers RB:

I expect Melvin Gordon to have a big week. He is coming off a great performance against the Raiders in Oakland. Prior to last game, Gordon asked for more touches and he certainly got what he wanted. Gordon racked up 25 carries and 9 receptions, for a total of 150 yards in the Chargers 17-16 win. The third year back accounted for both Chargers touchdowns, earning one through the air and one on the ground. He also was targeted a career high 12 times in the passing game. Despite the tough match-up vs the Broncos elite defense, he could be due for another big game. Denver showed that their defense is vulnerable, as they surrendered 117 rushing yards to Orleans Darkwa last week. Who? Exactly. It helps Gordon that the Chargers have been playing well, while the Broncos looked really shaky last week against a win-less Giants team. I think the Chargers will use their momentum, and home-field advantage, to get the win over their division rival, and Gordon will be at the center of it all.

Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears RB:

Jordan Howard is coming off a monster week in which he logged 36 carries. THIRTY-SIX. He took those 36 carries for 167 yards, which is over 4.6 yards per carry. The Bears are not showing much faith in their young QB, Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky only threw the ball 16 times in the entire game against Baltimore. I do not expect them to throw much against Carolina’s 7th ranked pass defense either. This assures that the volume of work will be there once again this week for Jordan Howard.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams WR:

Robert Woods is beginning to settle in with his new team. He is quickly becoming one of Jared Goff’s favorite targets, as he leads the team with 37 targets. Woods has had at least 5 catches in three of the last four games, and has earned 261 receiving yards during that stretch. He has a juicy match up this week against the Cardinals defense that ranks 25th against the pass. With Sammy Watkins likely drawing all the attention from star corner back Patrick Peterson, Woods should be able to go to work against the less talented members of the Arizona secondary.

Other Honorable Mentions:

Dion Lewis, Jamison Crowder, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette

Players I Hate in Week 7

Demarco Murray, Tennessee Titans RB:

Prior to last weeks game, the Titans announced that they plan to get Derrick Henry more involved. I am not saying either guy is the better option at this point, but Henry certainly seems to be gaining ground on Demarco. Henry had 19 carries for 131 yards last week, while Murray only had 12 for 40 yards. Murray certainly is not someone who should be sat in any sized-league, in any format, but he does seem to be losing his RB1 status. I see Murray as a more of a RB2 now. I do not expect Murray to get 15-20 carries this week.

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks WR:

Doug Baldwin is having a down year thus far. This may be a result of the entire Seahawks offense struggling as they rank 16th in the NFL in points per game. 16th is the middle of the pack, but when you have faced SF, IND and TEN, more production is expected. Seattle is going to New York to face the Giants. The Giants own a record of just 1-5, but have had a very tough schedule, and have lost a lot of close games. They are coming off a win against a good Broncos team in Denver without their top three wide receivers (Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall and Sterling shepard). The Giants will have a lot of confidence coming into the game, and Baldwin will be matched up with Janoris Jenkins. Baldwin has only found the end zone one time this year. Doug has had one productive game this year in which he had 10 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. Aside from this performance, he is averaging about 4 receptions per game for about 45 yards. Baldwin is a low-end WR2 this week.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts WR:

Hilton is a tremendously talented wide receiver. However, he has been too inconsistent this year, partially due to playing with backup QB’s Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien. Hilton has had two monster games this year in which he logged 7 catches for over 150 yards, those two performances came against both the 0-6 teams (Niners and Browns). In games against teams with a win, he has just 11 catches for 155 yards in 4 games, not very good. The Colts are hosting Jacksonville this week. Hilton is coming off a one-catch for 19 yards performance, and is about to face a secondary that ranks third in the NFL in pass defense–allowing just 166 passing yards per game. I see the Jags corners’ Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye containing Hilton and frustrating the Colts offense.

What’s Wrong With The Patriots?

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The Patriots Are 4-2

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – OCTOBER 15: wide receiver Brandin Cooks #14 of the New England Patriots makes a catch against cornerback Morris Claiborne #21 of the New York Jets during the second quarter of their game at MetLife Stadium on October 15, 2017 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

The New England Patriots are 4-2 and atop the AFC East. But they don’t play like a Super Bowl winning team right now. Why? Because the new guys think they can just walk in and think they’ll just win a Super Bowl? With Tom Brady and Belichick here we should be fine? It’s okay for the media to say that, but as a player, you can’t think that way or you’ll be out. The defense can’t give up 300-plus yards a game as they have done. The defense ranks last in the league. With Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe out last week the defense still gave up more than 300 yards.

Bill Belichick Conference Call

HOUSTON, TX – FEBRUARY 05: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on from the sideline during the third quarter against the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl 51 at NRG Stadium on February 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

In Belichick’s conference call yesterday he was asked how to balance week-to-week adjustments with the foundation and system installed before the season began? His answer ” I don’t think we had a lot of major issues with pass protection. I mean, I think overall our passing game wasn’t particularly efficient. We had a couple plays, they got us on a couple of pressures where they schemed up a look and then had a little variation off it. They beat the protection, so they did a good job coaching-wise of setting up a couple things. That’s really not a player issue. That’s more of a scheme issue for us, but they hit us a couple times.” Very interesting and long six- minute answer from Belichick. Sounds like he’s sticking up for his players and this it’s too early to judge them.

Tom Brady Can’t Do It All Himself

FOXBORO, MA – SEPTEMBER 24: Tom Brady #12 reacts with Brandin Cooks #14 of the New England Patriots after a touchdown during the third quarter of a game against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium on September 24, 2017 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Tom Brady can’t do this all himself. Yes, he has the wide receivers and the talent on the offensive side to score, but they have been missing plays. The defense has to do their part and not give up big plays on third down. The New York Jets win was an ugly one and needed the refs help at the end with the questionable touchdown or down at the one. The touch-back call proved lucky for the Patriot.s Up next — Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night, the much-anticipated rematch of the stunning Pats victory in SuperBowl LI.

Tale of the Tape: Brandin Cooks’s Catch Percentage

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Brandin Cooks has not failed to impress as the NFL zeros in closer to the midpoint of the season. He has clocked in 472 receiving yards on 24 receptions and two touchdowns, including a game-winner against Houston, all in six games. Leading the Patriots’ crippled receiving corp, Cooks has held down the role of running routes on the sideline. Before the season began there were comparisons to Cooks and Randy Moss, one of Tom Brady’s all-time best receivers.

Cooks is on pace for a third consecutive 1000+ yard season and is comfortable being a Patriot. But one of his stats so far this season has raised a few eyebrows in confusion. In his three-year stint in New Orleans prior to this season, Cooks has boasted extremely high catch percentages. From 2014-2016, Cooks averaged 7.5 targets per game and caught 69.5% of his targets. In his first six games as a Patriot, he has averaged 6.8 targets, hauling in 58.5% of them.

How Could This Be?

Brandin Cooks is not on a decline surely enough, he is the same receiver that he was in New Orleans. But how could he catch targets more often on the Saints? The answer could lie within the routes Cooks has ran for the Saints compared to the Patriots. He has solely ran deeper routes across the sideline for the Patriots, but did similar things for the Saints. If anything, the Patriots have relied on Cooks a little more in the absence of Julian Edelman. At the same time, however, Chris Hogan has shared a similar role to Brandin Cooks in the offensive scheme.

Football and Physics

The answer to this enigma could possibly be the product of pure physics. No two quarterbacks throw at the same velocity and force. Brandin Cooks has had the privilege so far in his career to work alongside Drew Brees and Tom Brady. In an ESPN Sports Science segment years ago, Drew Brees clocked in his throwing speed at 52 miles per hour, or 23.2 meters per second. Tom Brady on average takes 0.39 seconds to get a pass off at an initial velocity of 61 mph, or 27.3 m/s.

https://youtu.be/Kl7ZK3a0TkU

The acceleration of each QB’s passes are found using the equation Δv/t, or the change in velocity over time. Assuming the initial velocity is the same as the final and using 0.39 seconds as the time for each, Brady’s acceleration would be 70.0 m/s² and Brees’s would be 59.5 m/s².

The formula for force is m·a (mass multiplied by acceleration). If the average football mass is about 0.425 kilograms and using the accelerations yielded, Tom Brady would throw with a force of 29.75 N and Drew Brees would throw with 25.29 N.

The Math Doesn’t Lie

Brandin Cooks’s targets from Tom Brady are thrown harder than from his former quarterback Drew Brees. In order to catch a more forceful pass the receiver has to bring his hands in closer to his body to absorb the ball’s momentum. Brandin Cooks has been fairly successful with catching Brady’s passes, but has shown some struggle catching shorter passes. In recent weeks, however, he has shown improvement with his catch percentage. It has fluctuated from around 40% in Week 1 to around 65% in Week 6, and the high was Week 3 at around 70%. The Archer is slowly acclimating to a new quarterback, and will be in mid-season form in no time.

BSE’s Keys to Pats – Jets Week 6

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As the 2017-18 NFL regular season rolls towards being more than a third finished, very few people would have thought the Patriots and Jets would have the same record. The Patriots have surprised fans by not performing as well as envisioned, and the Jets have had an adverse effect. Coming into the season, a few expressed unwarranted confidence that the Patriots would finish the regular season undefeated. The Jets, on the other hand, were prophesied to finish with three wins if lucky. Yet here we are in a season that has already exceeded fans’ expectations in upsets.

The Patriots’ losses have come from the red-hot Chiefs and the Panthers, who rarely show up on the schedule. These losses have proved to be a learning experience for the team and the coaching staff. The Jets began their season with two consecutive losses to the stingy defense of the Bills and the Raiders. Since then, the Jets have picked up three wins against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Browns. Though the Jets have defied their odds so far, the Patriots have had little struggle against them in recent years. Tom Brady has only dropped seven games out of thirty against the Jets since 2001.

Stopping the Jets on Defense

New York offensively bullies their way down the field through the run game. Bilal Powell either runs the offense, or sits quietly in any given week. He is questionable for Sunday, but if he does play, expect the Jets to primarily run the ball. Josh McCown has done a considerable job incorporating the pass into the Jets’ offense. Jermaine Kearse, picked up by the Jets early in the season, and who almost broke the hearts of every Patriots fan in Super Bowl 49, has shown to be McCown’s favorite receiver. The Jets do not have many offensive weapons, but they have gotten by with Robby Anderson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Kearse.

The Patriots could possibly bring pressure to Josh McCown up the middle from Alan Branch and Trey Flowers. McCown tends to throw down the middle with medium passes– Dont’a Hightower and Devin McCourty will be important.

Rolling on Offense

With Mo Wilkerson also questionable this week, the Patriots offensive line can take a breather in the event of his absence. The o-line has let up too many hits on Tom Brady, to the point where last week he injured his non-throwing shoulder. Though Brady will start this week, it is imperative that the offensive line protects him well to avoid injury to that throwing shoulder. The Patriots can open up the run game this week with Mike Gillislee and Dion Lewis to add options. Expect Danny Amendola to be a viable option this week for Brady at medium range. Rob Gronkowskl returns from injury this week as well– a big addition for the offense.

Amendola Meeting Pats Expectations

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The Next Wes Welker?

When the New England Patriots signed Danny Amendola in 2013, fans were ready to call him Wes Welker 2.0. This opinion quickly shifted from Amendola to Julian Edelman. Edelman put up more than 100 receptions and 1,000 yards that same year.

Amendola put up solid numbers in his first season with the Pats (54 receptions for 633 yards), but for most of his Patriots tenure, his production has mediocre when compared to Edelman.

The 2017 season has provided different circumstances (Edelman out for season with torn ACL, Gronk on and off injuries), and Amendola is flourishing, becoming the player that fans were hoping he would be. He is the most experienced player in the wide receiver group for the Patriots this year. Quarterback Tom Brady is beginning to show trust in Dola as a top option in the passing game.

Can’t Cover Amendola

Brady is calling Dola “uncoverable” this season, adding “he’s just been so great for us this year.” This trust has been shown during the early part of the 2017 season, with Amendola already matching the number of receptions from the previous year (23 receptions total in 2016).

Second year Patriots receiver, Chris Hogan, has been Brady’s go-to option in the end zone. Dola has made some huge plays down the stretch when needed most. On 3rd and 18, Amendola caught a pass to set up the game winner against the Houston Texans in Week 3. A pass from Brady to receiver Brandin Cooks, in the endzone, sealed the victory.

Currently, Amendola is on pace for 854 yards this season. This would surpass his previous season high of 689 (2010) by nearly 200 yards. His efficiency has been key, he has 23 receptions on 27 targets. Opposing teams usually place a linebacker on him, while they put their defensive backs on Hogan and Cooks. This leads to many match up problems that have been key to Dola’s efficiency thus far.

Next Man Up

It is safe to say that Edelman’s sudden rise to stardom was unexpected in the 2013 season. His production has been consistently high as the number one receiving option for Brady. Sadly, his preseason injury will keep him on the sidelines for the entirety of 2017.

In his absence, Amendola is becoming the reliable option that Brady needs to be successful at 40 years old. Brady is currently on pace for his best season of his career in terms of yards. Danny Amendola has been a key factor, along with Hogan, Cooks, and Gronkowski.

Most expected Cooks and Gronk to perform at a high level. Few expected what they have seen from Dola. His emergence as Brady’s go-to option has been exciting for fans to witness each game this season. If he continues to perform this well, the Patriots offense will be very dangerous down the stretch.

Do Your Job

Amendola has gone under the radar since signing with New England. He is quickly emerging into a receiver Brady can look to in the clutch. Brady has connected with Amendola in clutch situations before (both Super Bowl XLIX and LI featured a clutch touchdown from Amendola), and is now connecting with him in the regular season as well.

Whileans dearly miss Edelman, and hope for a speedy recovery from the ACL injury, Amendola is doing his best to fill the void in the offense. The Week 1 Loss to the Kansas City Chiefs showed a lack of trust between Brady and his receivers. As the season has progressed, Brady has developed a strong rapport with Amendola, and the offense has clicked.

Dola started out the season being considered a third or fourth option in the passing game. Now, opposing defenses will need to key in on Brady’s most trusted option of 2017. If Brady’s mentions of Dola being “uncoverable” are true, defenses will struggle heavily trying to stop him.

Patriots’ Player Profile : Stephon Gilmore

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Hello everyone, I am embarking on a new feature for BostonSportsExtra and PatriotsExtra. We will have a weekly profile of a Patriots’ player so you can get to know more about the individuals on the team. This week features one of the newest Patriots, cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

INTRODUCTION

Stephon Stiles Gilmore was born on September 19, 1990 in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Gilmore went on to play high school and college football in his home state. Gilmore was voted third team all-American in 2011 and first team SEC 2010-2011. The Buffalo Bills drafted him in the first round (tenth overall) in 2012.

Gilmore went signed one of the richer free-agent contracts in Patriots’ history this past off season. Gilmore signed a five-year, $65M dea,l making him one of the highest paid defensive players on the team. This is coming off his last season with the Bills where Gilmore was voted to his first Pro Bowl. Gilmore also gained notoriety this season in mini camp for his feisty play. Both he and Julian Edelman were thrown out of practice for fighting on August 1st.

Gilmore has teamed up this season with Malcolm Butler to form one of the more formidable CB tandems in the league. Before you crucify me or them, it is only the first month of the season. Time should show that this signing was a very good one for both the short and long term of the defense. Gilmore, a great tackler, has averaged three interceptions a season, which I expect to go up this year.

PERSONAL DETAILS

Stephon Gilmore married his college sweetheart, Gabrielle Glenn, who he met at the University of South Carolina. She was a member of the track team as a sprinter. They currently plan to spend their off season time in South Carolina as well.

OFF THE FIELD

Gilmore has a reputation for his feisty behavior on the field, but it turns out Gilmore can be feisty off as well. Gilmore quickly dissed his former team (the Bills–who doesn’t) after signing this off season. “My friends and family will actually see me play on TV” highlighted one of his first quotes to the media. Gilmore can trash talk with the best of them, and has quick wit on and off of the field.

Otherwise, Gilmore tries to maintain a low profile and hangs out with his new defensive-back mates at least once a week. They get together as a group and have dinner or do something at one of their houses. They all say that this brings them closer together and helps with team bonding.

Hope you guys enjoyed my first ever Patriots’ player profile. Check out BostonSportsExtra.com and PatriotsExtra.com for a new profile each week. Thanks again and Go Patriots.

A Quick Analysis of the Patriots’ Week 5 Match-Up Against the Buccaneers

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A short week of preparation for the Patriots after suffering an unexpected loss at home against the Carolina Panthers Sunday. A defensive breakdown by the Patriots caused a full-blown shootout between Cam Newton and Tom Brady. And it just so happened that the Panthers’ defense showed more resiliency.

There’s no doubt that the Patriots’ coaching staff this week focused solely on improving the defensive game plan. Currently, this season’s Patriots defense ranks as one of the worst since 2006. On average, in the past ten seasons the Patriots have ranked third in the league in touchdowns allowed per drive, out of every drive they have allowed six points 17% of the time. In the past four weeks that statistic for this year’s defense skyrocketed to 31.1%, ranked worst in the league. So far on goal-to-go situations this season the opposing team has scored 100% of the time, being ranked 30th in the league. Though it is early in the season, the Patriots’ defense is statistically slipping already.

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

This week the Patriots are tasked with another rare opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A Thursday night match-up in Tampa will be more difficult for the Patriots to prepare for than the Bucs. This will be New England’s third NFC South match-up out of four still early in the season, and have had no trouble against the Buccaneers in the past. However, the Patriots and Bucs have not met in the past four years. Since then the Buccaneers have made a great addition with Jameis Winston. Luckily for the Patriots, the Buccaneers are one of the seven teams Tom Brady is undefeated against in his career.

Stopping the Buccaneers on Offense

Unlike any team the Patriots have faced so far this season, the Buccaneers boast a two tight end set on offense. Tight ends Cameron Brate and rookie O.J. Howard share playing time with either one blocking with the offensive line or both running routes over the middle of the field. Just last week when the Buccaneers squared up against the New York Giants, O.J. Howard burned the defense on a simple bootleg play-action pass because the corners were fixated on Brate and receiver Chris Godwin running the opposite way.

In addition to this set, the Buccaneers offense possesses a huge vertical threat in Mike Evans and speedy route-runner and returner DeSean Jackson. Rookie Chris Godwin is up-and-coming as well. At running back, the Bucs have Doug Martin, who in the past has ripped up defensive lines for huge gains. Jameis Winston is the perfect guy to sling the ball them. He has a cannon of an arm and in recent years has become more accurate. The Patriots’ defensive line will get a break this week when it comes to rushing the QB because Winstson does not scramble that often.

The most feasible way for the Patriots to stop this top-10 offense is to help each other as much as possible. Zone coverage and conservative play calling will help against the pass. Stephon Gilmore has struggled so far making mental errors, including one that cost the Patriots the game last week. If he continues to play as the team’s number-two corner, he should have someone helping in the backfield to reduce the field for him. Patrick Chung would capitalize on coverage like that and could force some turnovers. Dont’a Hightower will have to come up big on coverage in the middle of the field. Devin McCourty will have to hold down the top of the zone as well if Chung drops down.

Getting the Patriots Offense Going

Tom Brady has kept the Patriots’ offense alive, despite all the injuries plaguing his receivers. He has picked up his tempo and slinging the ball more, but there is only so much that he can do individually. Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks have been lighting up secondaries and finding the end zone without much adversity. Danny Amendola has successfully has been filling Julian Edelman’s slot-reciever role in his absence. With Rob Gronkowski the newest entry on the injury report, and Rex Burkhead continuing to be out this week, the Patriots will bring the next man up. Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes will be tough to get catches over. However, Brandin Cooks has the capacity to out-speed Grimes win in a jump ball situation against Hargreaves. This leaves the middle passing game open for Danny Amendola to get open.

In the backfield, Mike Gillislee and Dion Lewis have shared reps on the team’s dismal running game. James White has gotten few targets in the backfield as well, which could be used against the Buccaneers defense. Linebacker Lavonte David is the only factor to interfere against a halfback screen. Expect this game to continue the trend of being pass-heavy for the Patriots.