J.D. Martinez has been the #1 topic of the offseason for Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox. Are we or are we not getting him? Is he going to a whole other team? What kind of contract will he get? Those are some of the questions that we have been continuously asking ourselves as we inch closer to Spring Training.
Scott Boras recently said that he and Martinez are willing to hold off until Spring Training to get a deal done. They are trying to get the seven years with at least $25 million for each year. Dombrowski’s apparently not having it.
MLB insider Jon Heyman recently reported that Dombrowski won’t go over his $25 million per year for five seasons offer, and is basically saying take it or leave it. I absolutely love this.
Don’t get me wrong, J.D. Martinez is one hell of a player. He hit 45 homers last year, 29 of them coming from after he got traded to Arizona at the deadline. And this is just home runs we’re talking about. He’s had a slugging percentage over .500 for the last four years. Martinez has also improved from a .535 slugging in both 2015 and 2016 to .690 in 2017. He’s had an on base over .350 three of the last four years. Also he had an OPS of .912 in 2014, .879 in 2015, .908 in 2016 and 1.066 in 2017. This guy is possibly better than Stanton. The dude can hit, I’m not denying that.
But what I’m saying is this whole thing is getting ridiculous at this point. Is J.D. Martinez a pretty great hitter? Yes. Is he someone who can be a great presence in the middle of this Boston lineup? Yes. But is he worth what he’s asking for? Nope. Not many are. And especially not when you add the fact that he’s into his 30s now. History says that signing guys in their 30s to large contracts is never a good idea. Teams are getting smarter. The game is evolving. People don’t want to be giving out these huge contracts to anybody any more, and rightfully so.
For example look at someone like Albert Pujols on the Angels. The dude was unreal when he signed with them. Now? He has a negative WAR for them. He has no value to his team. Want to talk about awful contracts with the Red Sox? Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are two names I don’t have to go further into.
So no, the Red Sox don’t have to overpay for J.D. Martinez. Just wait it out. His market isn’t that big. Your offer may very well be the biggest one he gets. So I absolutely am all for what Dombrowski is doing right now. Not playing Boras’s game, and I love it.
Before we begin, the dissection and determination of the overall value of one MLB player compared to others is no easy task. It takes a deep in-depth look at several facets of their individual impact. The player can have tremendous talent and outshine their teammates or fit well in a system giving them opportunities constantly to produce. Without continuing to skate around the point, ranking players ahead of others isn’t always easy. There is a way of looking at the personal statistics a player can produce, but there always must be a situational and big picture perception.
In an article written by Mike Petriello, he broke down the top ten left fielders in all of the MLB based off of The Shredder’s list. This would be the official ranking of Top 10 Right Now. Andrew Benintendi was placed on this list, which wasn’t a shock to me at all, although the order may leave some to question. Given Benintendi seems to be a staple of this organization for years to come, it is fair to comment on the results of The Shredder list as well.
The Shredder’s List- Left Fielders
1. Marcell Ozuna (STL)
2. Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)
3. Justin Upton (LAA)
4. Ryan Braun (MIL)
5. Trey Mancini (BAL)
6. Khris Davis (OAK)
7. Adam Eaton (WAS)
8. Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
9. Marwin Gonzalez (HOU)
10. Brett Gardner (NYY)
Eric Goudreau’s Thoughts & List:
I will not go into strong details about each individual player as that would take the plot away from this article. I will give my list below, but the objective and purpose of this piece are to justify my positioning of Andrew Benintendi and to argue the list above. Yes, I am a Red Sox fan by heart, yes I sleep under a signed picture of Andrew Benintendi every night, but this will not promote any objectivity. I am a fan of this game first, and when I see a glaring injustice done to a player of Benintendi’s value I speak. Or type.
1. Marcell Ozuna (STL)
2. Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)
3. Justin Upton (LAA)
4. Andrew Benintendi (BOS)
5. Marwin Gonzalez (HOU)
6. Rhys Hoskins (PHI)
7. Adam Eaton (WAS)
8. Ryan Braun (MIL)
9. Kris Davis (OAK)
10. Brett Gardner (NYY)
Andrew Benintendi Explanation:
There needs to be a constant reminder when looking at each of these players on my list. I am evaluating player performance as well as what the team’s style seems to be. The player succeeds when the system surrounding him can play to strength and weaknesses. Also added to this is the player’s potential growth in those systems. This is based on their skill set relative to team needs/concentrations.
Andrew Benintendi finished his long rookie season coming just shy of the AL Rookie of the Year award. Maybe just shy is not the word when comparing him to the MLB The Show 18 cover boy. Second place will not be ignored. For me, this completely negates Trey Mancini on The Shredder’s List. Yes, Trey Mancini has shown growth with outstanding power and surprising defense. With a career total of WAR for 3.1 to Mancini’s 2.5 and the RoY standings being what they were, I don’t put him ahead of Benintendi.
Andrew’s Age:
What will push Benintendi (age 23) over the likes of Adam Eaton (age 29), Khris Davis (age 30) and post PED use Ryan Braun (age 34) is sheer age and potential. It has been a universal agreement and observation that in baseball the prime of a player’s career is around the ages of 26-29/30.
A player like Andrew Benintendi being in these talks around the age of 23 for a top player at his position does not come very often. A player passing through the ranks of AAA to a major league diamond to create an impact like Benintendi did in 2016 does not come very often. Now if you want to argue that I’m basing Benintendi to be better LONG TERM compared to these players, I can see a point to be made. But if we want to even look at the numbers last season, it’s important to back to the statistic that does not lie.
WAR
1. Andrew Benintendi- 2.6
2. Khris Davis- 2.5
3. Ryan Braun- 1.2
4. Adam Eaton- 0.4
I gave the edge to Benintendi for my last criteria, which is the system. Personally, I believe there was a misuse of players in the 2017 Red Sox system. The argument could even be made for the 2016 team as well. Both teams Benintendi has been a part of/still excelled in. John Farrell’s firing could be the best thing that has happened to the grooming and maintenance of players in Boston. In Benintendi’s situation a new young manager, Alex Cora, will only benefit his career. At times Cora has dealt with young talent both in playing years (Dustin Pedroia) and his one year in Houston.
I look to the development of Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) as an example. It may surprise most that Marwin Gonzalez at the age of 28 came in 19th for AL MVP last season. A player who has never mentioned in such conversation in past years. Although Alex Cora may not have been the main cog of Marwin Gonzalez seeing success, Cora witnessed it happen at the position. With a mold like Andrew Benintendi and a manager like Cora who has quite an eye for talent, I believe Benintendi’s ceiling is massive for 2018.
With all that said, the entire argument’s based on statistics and some “I believe”. The flurries of opinions are what makes the MLB community great. Ultimately I want you to let me know how you are feeling in the comments.
The Red Sox only offered $7.5 million, which was substantially lower than the $10.5 million that was asked for. This is Betts’s first year being eligible for arbitration, and he now has the largest first year case win in the MLB. Mookie has been part of the team for several years and definitely earned the $10.5 million. His agent put out the asking price this offseason, and it raised some eyebrows. The Sox put up $3 million less in rebuttal. The Red Sox eventually gave Mookie the $10.5 million and he won his arbitration hearing. There are problems that the Sox organization will now face when it comes to working with Mookie and his agent. This is going to be because the hearing had to happen so late in the offseason.
Trouble in Paradise due to Arbitration
The biggest problem is the length of time that it took to come to an agreement. Both Mookie and his agent have grown to love the city of Boston and the organization itself. The question being asked now is how long will Mookie stay in Boston? The organization only offered $7.5 million, which can cause Mookie to see that they were not interested in him enough to raise his salary. Going into an arbitration deal is never something that a player wants, but there are pros and cons to the hearing. If the organization only wanted to offer the $7.5 million, do they plan to keep Mookie in Boston? Through the arbitration, Mookie and his agent may feel as though the Sox are not as interested in the right fielder anymore.
Why did the Sox go into Arbitration?
The Red Sox still are trying to get a power hitter. Maybe the reason was that they did not know how much money they wanted to offer. With Mookie playing at the level he is, there was never talk of a trade, but there was also never a talk about a raise. The Red Sox organization has had there focus on obtaining a power hitter. Due to that, they have neglected current players or those who hold other positions. Mookie Betts was never in trade talk, but they also never discussed keeping him around for many years.
Until Friday the MLB offseason had been remarkably boring. Of the top ten free agents only two have signed. On Friday the Brewers signed Lorenzo Cain to a five-year deal and acquired Christian Yelich from the Miami Marlins. With a little more than two weeks left until Spring Training these free agents will start to sign and the Red Sox have needs to fill. Their needs include an impact bat and relief help. They have many options remaining in both free agency and through trades.
Photo Credit: Rob Foldy/Getty Images
Options for Offense in Free Agency
All offseason the Red Sox have been linked to J.D. Martinez. He is the best hitter on the market and would make the Red Sox offense much scarier. The only problem is that his agent is Scott Boras. He is known for being getting his players big deals. So far, the highest offer the Sox have given Martinez has been for five years and around one hundred and twenty-five million. Martinez wants a seven-year deal, but the Sox are hesitant to commit to him for that long. Recent deals like the Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, and Rusney Castillo deals have not worked out. The Red Sox could look elsewhere. Eric Hosmer still remains but the Sox signed Mitch Moreland to a two year deal. The Sox do not have the prospect depth to pull off a big trade. Martinez may be their best option, but they will have to offer more money.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/ Ross D. Franklin
Bullpen Options
The Red Sox are returning most of their bullpen from last year. That isn’t a bad thing as the Sox bullpen had the second-best ERA in the American League last year. The only subtractions from the staff is Addison Reed, who signed with the Twins as a free agent. There are not a lot of options remaining meaning any addition would like to come from within the organization. If the Sox do make an addition it could be an experienced shutdown lefty.
Photo Credit: Kathy Willens/ AP
Bench Options
The Sox are expected to begin the season without Dustin Pedroia. They will need someone to replace Pedroia at second until he returns. The Sox have options internally like Brock Holt, but he struggled with the bat last year. The Sox have options in free agency such as Eduardo Nunez and Neil Walker. The only problem is once Pedroia returns they would not be the starters. The Sox could find spots for Nunez as unlike Walker he can play shortstop and third base.
Photo Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Final Thoughts
The Red Sox need to improve their offense. Last season the Sox ranked towards the bottom in home runs. Martinez would provide a big boost and Nunez would make the team deeper. The Sox could also add Logan Morrison or Lucas Duda who both hit thirty home runs last year. With Spring Training less than a month away the Sox have plenty of options and should make a move soon.
On December 9th, the Yankees and Marlins officially agreed on a deal to send slugger Giancarlo Stanton to the Bronx. There were mixed opinions from Red Sox fans on whether or not they wanted Stanton because of the idea of trading pieces and his huge contract.
One thing for sure is whether or not Red Sox nation wanted him, they certainly did not want him to join Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez who slugged their way to one game from the World Series.
The Pressure
Dave Dombrowski had to immediately feel the pressure as soon as he found out that the Yankees had acquired Stanton. Not only because of the fact that the Marlins got a weak haul that the Red Sox could have matched, but also because their arch-rivals now have two giants in their lineup.
The attention immediately focused to what “Dealin Dave” would do to counter the Yankees’ move. Many believed he was going to try and sign both Eric Hosmer and JD Martinez. Not only did fans want this to happen, they wanted it to happen as soon as possible.
However, Dave has stayed calm under pressure, which is surprising because he is usually a gunslinger.
Financial Situation
One thing to take into consideration is the financial situation of the Red Sox. They currently have some huge contracts on the table, including Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello, and Rusney Castillo. The Average Annual Value (AAV) of those contracts alone is a colossal chunk of the payroll.
Splurging just to splurge is not the answer here, and going after just JD Martinez instead of both him and Hosmer is also the right idea. One big contract added to the payroll will already be a burden, never mind two. Fans who also want to see the massive extensions of Mookie Betts and Chris Sale whe nthey hit the market should also take this into consideration.
Scott Boras
A lot of people know who Scott Boras is at this point. Boras is an infamous sports agent whose notorious for getting giant contracts for his clients. JD Martinez is a Boras client, and was originally seeing a 7 year deal worth $200 million+ going into the offseason. Obviously he will not end up getting that deal, but he will be making a lot of money.
What is happening right now is a stare down between Scott Boras and Dave Dombrowski. This is a staredown that is actually benefiting Boston though. Right now, the only real market for Martinez currently is the Red Sox. They have already been linked to him and are desperately seeking a middle of the order bat.
Fans who are begging for DD to make a move and sign Martinez are not using their brains properly. It is common sense that the longer Dave milks this out, Boras and Martinez will eventually get desperate and take a deal for less.
The offseason can be a very long and painful process, but Dave Dombrowski is a smart man. It may be boring right now, but the waiting game will be worth it in the long run.
Let’s be clear, I love baseball. While it no longer dominates American sports like it did before the NFL exploded in the 1990’s, baseball remains a great game. Unlike football, it is an international game and the league draws the best talent from around the world. Like the NHL being better after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the influx of the best Eastern European players to North America, Major League Baseball draws the best talent out of Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
But it is a game that can be improved. We previously talked about how baseball can improve the fans experience by fixing the pace-of-play. This article will address larger, more controversial changes that MLB should adopt to improve the quality of the game.
1. Contraction
Over-expansion in the 90’s diluted the talent pool in MLB by forcing players into The Show too early, and in some cases promoting players who previously would have topped out at AAA. This month’s fire sale in Miami only serves to highlight what we’ve known for a long time – there are franchises that are not viable and there are fan bases unworthy of teams.
Major League Baseball needs to stop the charade and eliminate both Florida franchises. Like a third world country devaluing their currency, Miami has routinely sold off their talent to cut payroll and remain solvent in a market that doesn’t support the franchise. Miami was 28th (of 30) in attendance this year.
Tampa is even worse. Tampa, last in attendance in every year since 2012, can’t fill the Trop even in years when the team is competitive. And they almost never are.
It’s lonely for fans at the Trop.
Keeping Tampa and Miami is tantamount to baseball’s welfare state. Between 2012-2015, Miami received $142M from MLB Revenue Sharing; Tampa $138M. In that same period they were 30th and 29th respectively in team payroll rank. The $142M payout from the league to the Marlins represented 57% of the total amount of players’ salaries on their 40-man roster during that same period.
Baseball should stop subsidizing teams that owners can’t afford and cities do not support.
2. Shorten the Season
Why do the “boys of summer” play baseball in the snow? This happens almost every year at the beginning of the season and, depending on who’s in the Fall Classic, could happen at the end of the season. The answer is because the season is simply too long. Major league teams play 162 games over roughly 182 days. There are only twenty off days in a season – five of which occur over the All Star “break”.
Baseball went to the 162-game season in 1962. Prior to that, beginning in 1920, it was 154 games. From 1892 until 1920, it fluctuated between 154, 132, and 140, but for 17 of those 27 years it was 154 games. Put it back.
Cutting eight games off the regular season isn’t going to save the world, but it will save almost two weeks. Between games and travel or off days, MLB can push the opening day back a week and end the regular season a week earlier. But that’s just part one.
The second way to shorten the season is to return to scheduled double headers. Baseball used to routinely schedule double headers but the 2002 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) eliminated them except under special circumstances like a make-up game due to a rain-out.
Returning to regularly scheduled double headers will shorten series and therefore shorten the season. One regularly scheduled double-header per team, per month saves an additional six game-days, which if scheduled properly is almost ten calendar days of the season. Yes, it is hard on players – hence the ’02 CBA. However, the 2012 CBA authorized teams to expand their active rosters to 26 for double headers and, coupled with a reduction in games, the introduction of scheduled double-headers will increase off days.
3. Automated Strike Zone
I enjoy watching Joe West, Hunter Wendelstedt, and Angel Hernandez ruin a good ballgame with inconsistent plate calls as much as the next guy. And by that I mean, not at all. Game to game, inning to inning, and at bat to at bat – strike zone variations are not just frustrating, they are unnecessary.
In 2016, according to PITCHf/x data from Baseball Savant, home plate umpires correctly called 82.21% of strikes. In other words, they made the wrong call almost 18% of the time. It’s frightening to think that in 2012 it was only 76.8%. Umpires have gone from C students to B-.
Why on earth do we accept this? MLB needs to invest in automated strike zone technology and limited the home plate umpires role to adjudicating swings and misses, foul ball, hit-by-pitches, and out calls. Baseball is a $10 Billion dollar industry, it shouldn’t be left in the hands of B- students.
Fewer teams will improve the leagues financials and reduce the number of not-ready-for-primetime players in the league. A shorter season will keep fans engaged. Better umpiring improves the quality of the game. That’s all I want in my stocking this year.
Baseball was once America’s pastime. Not anymore. Today, the NFL dominates professional team sports. Baseball, despite the unbelievable quality of the game, is quickly becoming the old guys sport. Why? Because the pace of play makes it “boring”.
At least that’s what most non-baseball fans believe. We live in a time of instant gratification. People care less and less about strategy, tactics, and the intricacies of a defensive shift or a pitching match-up. And, while they may still appreciate of the beauty of a well-turned double play, they don’t want to endure a fifteen pitch, four mound visit at bat to get there. Baseball is boring because baseball is slow.
The Problem at Hand
I am not trying to be the old guy yelling “get off my lawn”, but something has to be done about the pace of play. Countless pitching changes in an inning, lefty and right specialists who face a single batter, and catchers who walk to the mound so many times you think they’re trying to meet their daily Fitbit goal have driven the average game length to over three hours.
This season’s average was almost five minutes higher than 2016 and seven more than in 2000. Of course the average Red Sox game is higher, and the average Sox-Yankees affair is much higher. It is even worse in the playoffs.
Average Length of MLB Game 2017
REG SEASON
BOS-NYY
BOS-HOU ALDS
WORLD SERIES
3:05
3:27
3:48
3:42
Part of this is to be expected. Deeper line-ups, runners on base, and higher-pressure games slow the pace of play. Pitchers and catchers strategize each at bat like it’s the Invasion of Normandy, while managers scroll through pages of data weighing match-ups and bullpen options.
Past Proposals
Major League Baseball recognized the problem years ago and has tried in vain to address it. The two biggest measures proposed by Commissioner Rob Manfred last year were a 20-second pitch clock and a limit on mound visits. The Players Union rejected both suggestions.
The union argued that forcing pitchers to work more quickly could lead to more injuries. But, according to CBS Sports, the average time between pitches last season was 24.2 seconds. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t speak to the rehabilitative magic that an extra four seconds between pitches does for a throwing arm. But what I do know is that in a game with 300 cumulative pitches, those extra four seconds translates to 21 added minutes.
Options Moving Forward
Manfred was on the right path with his recommendations last year. There are plenty of ways to reduce the length of ball games. Here are a few:
Pitch clock.
Damn the union, the commissioner needs to exercise his “in the best interested of baseball” powers and implement the clock by fiat if necessary. If that means that, in order to prevent injuries, teams will need to lower pitch counts per start and carry more pitchers – then expand the rosters.
I do not believe that awarding a ball for each violation is a realistic punishment. That will alter the game too dramatically. Rather, I recommend that MLB impose a $100-500 fine to the team for every violation. The team can, if it chooses, pass that along to the pitcher or pay it outright.
Under this plan, a pitcher who throws 200 innings stands to lose about $40,000 a year if even just ten percent of their pitches violate the pitch clock. That’s motivation.
Eliminate the lefty-righty specialist.
What’s worse than watching Clay “Molasses” Buchholz pitch? Watching him get pulled for a lefty-specialist who faces one batter only to be pulled himself. The specialization of relief pitching may be supported by analytics, but pitching changes add tons of time to games.
The simple solution is to eliminate the one-out specialist. Not eliminate the roster spot, just require that every pitcher face not less than two batters. The only exceptions to this rule is injury or if the pitcher comes in and records the final out of the inning or game.
Limit Mound Visits.
As cute as it was to listen to Crash and Nuke discuss what to get Jimmy and Mille for their wedding, we need to cap mound visits so we can all get on with our lives.
As Matt Snyder noted, in Game 1 of the 2016 NLCS, the Dodgers had a mound visit before every single batter in the eighth inning. The Cubs had nine guys come to the plate that inning. How much time do you think that added? A lot. They scored five runs. How effective were those visits? Not very.
Under this proposal, there can be no more than one player mound visit per inning and it cannot exceed thirty seconds. Any subsequent player mound visit or any violation of time not related to injury would result in a $1,000 fine to the team.
A pitching coach or manager may visit the mound once per inning (not per pitcher) for not more than one minute. A managerial time violation would result in a $5,000 fine to the manager. Subsequent mound visits by the pitching coach or manager are allowed for pitching changes.
How Big an Impact
The total effect of these proposals would be revolutionary.
Games were 12-minutes shorter in AA and AAA ballparks with 20-second pitch clocks in 2015 than in 2014. Eliminate even one pitching change per team per game and you trim another 10-15 minutes. Keep catchers and managers from wearing out the grass to the mound with all those visits and it’s easily another eight to ten minutes per game.
I just cut the average baseball game down by 37 minutes from 3:05 to 2:28. You’re welcome.
In our continuing series of articles on this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, we now turn our attention to two guys who didn’t enhance their stats through the needle. Unlike the greatly debated case of Roger “the HGH was for my wife” Clemens, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling have never been linked to PEDs. Each deserves induction.
As I mentioned here, neither Moose nor Schill have Clemens numbers, but they also don’t have his PED baggage.
The Standard for the Hall
We used to believe that the standard for Cooperstown was 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. That is actually far from the truth.
There are 75 pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Taking away those who were exclusively or predominantly relief pitchers, including Eck, Rollie Fingers, Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Hoyt Wilhelm, we’re left with 70. We should also take out Babe Ruth, Satchel Paige, and John Smoltz from the sample.
Ruth only pitched a couple of years and is in the Hall for his bat. Paige, certainly an all-time great, only pitched in the major leagues for part of six seasons after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. Smoltz earned induction based on a balanced career of excellence as both a starter (213 wins) and closer (154 saves).
Thanks to our friends at www.baseballreference.com, we know what the average starting pitcher in Cooperstown looks like. They pitched for 18 years, went to four All Star Games, won 253 games, lost 176, had an ERA of 2.98 and struck out 2,153. And, for those readers who appreciate modern, second-order stats, they have a WAR (wins above replacement) of 70 and a WHIP (Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.197.
Mussina by the Numbers
Mike Mussina was a great pitcher, but he meets none of the traditional marks for Cooperstown. His 270 career wins are below the magic 300 but are above the Hall average. He also lost fewer games than the typical HOFer.
The five-time All Star struck out 2,813 and had a career ERA of 3.68. His career WAR (83.0) was better than the average Cooperstown pitcher and his WHIP (1.192) is nearly identical. Mussina won seven Gold Gloves, but he never finished higher than fourth in Cy Young award voting.
Schilling Beyond the Numbers
I won’t pretend to be entirely objective about Curt Schilling. I’ve known him for years since his retirement and know that he’s not the caricature some in the media portray him to be. His Hall candidacy ceased resting on his baseball resume a few years ago. His numbers are beyond Hall worthy except for his wins total.
Schill (216-146, 3.46 ERA, 3,116 Ks, 79.9 WAR and 1.137 WHIP) finished second in the Cy Young award three times, and was a six-time All Star. His low win total is often used as an excuse for those who keep him off their ballot. There are 18 starting pitchers in the hall with fewer than 216 wins.
No pitcher in the Hall has Schilling’s post season resume. The three-time world champion is universally understood as the greatest post-season pitcher of the modern era.
In 12 post season series, Shilling went 11-2, had an ERA of 2.23, a WHIP of 0.968, and was a League Championship Series (1993) and World Series MVP (2001). You would need a Pentagon super computer to calculate Schilling’s post season WAR. When the weather turned cold and the competition heated up, against the best hitters in the game, Curt Schilling was the best in baseball.
Tomes have been written about Schilling’s off the field activities. His failed company, his departure from ESPN, his political positions, and his social media presence. Some writers, including Boston’s “favorite” curly-haired boyfriend, have used one or more of these things to justify keeping Schilling out of the Hall. Many of these same writers ignore Curt’s long and substantial charitable work and his Roberto Clements award, but have no issues voting for steroid users who cheated, like Bonds and Clemens.
The Case For Both
If the Hall is really about baseball, and voters truly care how pitchers performed within the context of their era, than both Schilling and Mussina must be inducted. That these two pitchers accomplished what they did, in an era when juiced hitters were breaking every offensive record and when new and smaller ballparks popped up every year, is simply amazing.
To compete clean in the steroid era and achieve to their standard cannot legitimately go unrewarded. Of the pitchers who faced Barry Bonds, the poster child of the steroid era and the most prolific power hitter in history, at least 100 At Bats, Schilling held him to a lower batting average (.263) than both Greg Maddux (.265) and John Smoltz (.275). Both are in the Hall. Both were elected on their first ballot.
The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) released their Modern Era committee Hall of Fame ballot yesterday. Over the next few weeks Boston Sports Extra will make our case for who should and who shouldn’t, and who will and won’t, get elected.
The Process
In order to walk into Cooperstown as anything other than a paid visitor, a player must be on at least 75% of the ballots. Last year, there were 442 ballots cast, so a player must have been on 332 ballots to be inducted.
Voting for induction to baseball’s greatest shrine has no more integrity than voting for homecoming queen at your high school. Writers, who weren’t good enough athletes to actually play baseball, check the box next to the names of the players they like. It’s a popularity contest. Some writers are more objective than others. Some are comically biased.
Last year Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, and Edgar Renteria all received votes for the Hall of Fame. That’s not just ridiculous, it demonstrates that we should reassess who is allowed to vote. Every ballot should be made public. Any writer so obviously out of step with reality should have their voting privileges suspended.
For now, BBWAA Hall voters can keep their ballots private. Those who do simply lack the intellectual integrity to defend their stances on certain players.
This year’s ballot includes fourteen pitchers. Trevor Hoffman, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Billy Wagner are all hold-overs from previous years. There are nine pitchers being considered for their first time: Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Jamie Moyer, Chris Carpenter, Livian Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kerry Wood, Jason Isringhausen, and Brad Lidge.
We will get into the details of a number of candidates in the coming weeks, but it is a safe bet that Hoffman will get the additional 1% he needs for induction. He will be the only pitcher elected this year.
Still Have a Shot
Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling will not only stay on the ballot next year, but should all eventually get elected. By the numbers, Rocket is a no brainer. But, as we’ll discuss later, his situation is more complicated than that.
Moose and Schill don’t have Clemens’ numbers, but they also don’t have his PED baggage. Mussina is safer bet than Schilling. His 270 wins are more in line with starting pitchers already in Cooperstown, and he hasn’t been nearly as controversial off the field. Much more on that later.
Good but Not Great
Of the newbies on the ballot, none of the starting pitchers are likely to make it, though some will stay above the 5% cut line for a couple of years. Moyer has more wins than the average Hall pitcher, but he has 209 loses and a career ERA almost a run and a half higher. Johan Santana was brilliant for a short time, but he wasn’t Pedro Martinez. He will eventually fall well short.
Similarly, none of the other four predominantly relief pitchers on the ballot will make it. This includes Kerry Wood, who due to injuries had his gifted career cut short. Billy Wagner is the most other Hall-worthy candidate, but when judged against Trevor Hoffman’s candidacy you can easily see how far he is below the standard.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, the San Francisco Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Before everyone screams KUNG FOO PANDA! remember that wasn’t a trade. We signed him as a free agent. It was a self-inflicted wound.
That we’re still paying for until 2020.
Bradley is Eminently Tradeable
I simply do not understand the love affair with Bradley. Jackie Bradley Jr. is not Mookie Betts. He is a fine baseball player, but he is not untradeable. He is Coco Crisp, not Jacoby Ellsbury. Bradley is an elite fielder and a great base runner, but he is a demonstrably average hitter (.239 BA / .726 OPS career).
Sure, in a childish way it’s cute when he, Benny, and Mookie dance after games. It’d be better if he produced at the plate. He is completely replaceable and should be available at the right price. The right price in a deal with the Giants is Buster Posey.
Posey
Posey (.308 BA /128 HR / 594 RBI / .850 OPS career) is under contract through 2022, with an average annual hit of $21.4M. He’ll be 35 when that deal is up. His resume is obscene: ROY, MVP, batting title champ, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger (4). Oh yeah, and three-time World Series champion.
Posey is the best catcher in the game. He shouldn’t be available. But he might be.
San Francisco was the worst-hitting team in baseball last year. Reports contend they want to be in the mix for Stanton to address their woeful lack of power (40 fewer HRs than the Sox if you can believe that!). The Giants problem, however, is that they are already committed to sixteen players at $170M next year and are even more afraid of the $197M luxury-tax threshold than the Sox.
They probably can’t add Stanton and his $28M (11-years, $310M remaining) contract without losing Posey. But, in trading Posey to Boston they can fix center field, upgrade the pop in their lineup, and stay under the luxury tax.
What it Would Take
As delusional as most fans are about their teams’ talent, nobody believes that the Sox could swap JBJ for Buster Posey. At least nobody with even a single active brain cell. It would cost much more.
Boston is deep at catcher. We’d need to lose one. Leon (29), Vazquez (27), and Swihart (26) are all younger than Posey. The ideal scenario would be JBJ, Sandy Leon, and a minor leaguer for Posey. JBJ and Leon are both under team-friendly control through 2021.
The problem is, Leon is not Christian Vazquez. Vazquez is younger and better both at the dish and behind it, and SF would likely demand him in any deal. Boston should avoid that at all costs, even if it means giving up better minor league talent in return.
The Ideal Scenario
The ideal scenario for the Sox is the JBJ-Leon for Posey deal for a number of reasons. First and foremost, it adds an elite veteran and quality bat to the lineup without giving up too much in return. Second, it keeps the better catcher on the roster, allowing for Posey’s eventual move to first base.
Like Minnesota’s Joe Mauer, the last AL catcher to win a batting title, Posey is going to have to move to first or DH to extend his career. He has more than a thousand MLB games on those knees. Soon the wear and tear on the body will affect not only his availability but his productivity. And, unlike Jason Varitek, who was great managing the staff but a black hole in the lineup for years, Posey’s bat makes it a no-brainer. He will be more valuable to a team, and to his wallet, for longer by making the move sooner.
With Vazquez behind the dish and Posey at first, Boston can go all in on replacing Bradley with JD Martinez. Martinez is attainable for less than Stanton and, with Buster’s bat already an upgrade to Moreland, the lineup will be deeper and more productive than if they just add Stanton.
Baseball went to the 162-game season in 
