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Brady Theory’s Debunked With Facts-Part 1

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Tom Brady theory’s or “myths” claiming he’s not a great QB make me laugh, so I’ve compiled the first edition of Tom vs Truth. I am a fan, yet I am using facts to end these ridiculous claims.

They Love you Until they Don’t

Once upon a time Tom Brady was America’s golden child, beating the greatest show on turf put him on the map. Fast forward to the present day and many things have changed. Six Super Bowl wins, multiple MVPs and a supermodel wife has had the country turned against the GOAT. Let’s start with these theory’s about TB12.

“Tom Is A Product of the Patriots System”

Haters across the country can’t stop calling Brady a system QB. While every team has a system, and 3/4s of the teams using the same style. Why aren’t they playing in February? The answer is Tom Brady. We know his skill, so let’s look deeper. Brady has had numerous Offensive Coordinators. In the beginning it was Charlie Weiss. Charlie’s offenses in NY and NE before Tom Brady were ranked 12th, 5th, 19th and 25th. Compare those numbers with a very green, backup QB in Tom Brady. Charlie’s 4 years with Tom his offenses ranked 6th, 10th, 12th and 4th. This is what I call the Brady difference. Weiss left after 4 years with Brady to coach Notre Dame, ending with a record of 41-49.

McDaniels Makes Brady

Josh McDaniels makes Tom Brady Great. Well no, not at all. He has had success with Tom just like Weiss, but without Brady his numbers declined drastically. Working with Brady, Josh McDaniels offenses have been incredible. The worst those two finished was 10th in points and 11th in yards. Every other season with Brady, New England’s Offense was ranked top 3 in points, with one top 5 finish. McDaniels in St.Louis and Denver running the same system, ranked 20th, 19th and dead last at 32nd. (Brady Difference.)

Bill O’Brien in 2011 must’ve been the reason Brady and the offense was 3rd in points scored right? I don’t think so, since leaving the Pats O’Brien’s offenses in points scored rank 14th, 21st, 28th, 17th and 11th. Quite the drop off without Brady under Center. So if you say “System QB”, I say it’s the Brady difference.

Well What About Bill Belichick? “He makes Tom Brady”

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick stands alone as the greatest HC, he must be why Brady’s so great

First let me say that while Bill is the best coach of all time, that didn’t really start until Brady came into the mix. In Cleveland Bill went 35-55, along with 5-11 his first year in NE without Tom. There’s that Tom Brady difference again.

2008 Same Team No Brady

But Matt Cassel went 11-5 when Brady was hurt

This argument often made by haters really grinds my gears: “If Brady is so good then how did Matt Cassel go 11-5?”

Well let’s break it down. The 2007 and 2008 teams had the same roster minus Donte Stallworth on offense. In 2007 Tom Brady and his offense set records for TDs, Rec TDs and points scored. The team went 18-0 only to lose the SB just missing the perfect season. The 2007 offense with Tom had a 315 point differential, compared to Cassel’s team dropping 214 points all the way down to a 101 point differential. So the same team, with different QBs went from the best offense ever, to average and missing the playoffs.

2007 Brady- 4,806 yards, 50 TD/8 INTs with a 117 Passer rating along with MVP honors.

2008 Cassel- 3,693 yards, 21 TD/11 INTs with an 89 passer rating with the same offense. (Brady Difference)

In 2010 Matt Cassel made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl with KC. He was no stiff, throwing 27 TDs to just 7 INTs, which was the second best ratio in the league that year. Who could’ve been number 1 I wonder? Tom Brady of course, as he won the only unanimous MVP in league history. Sorry to say again but the Brady Difference is quite obvious in this popular theory among haters.

“Tom Isn’t Good without a Great Defense”

The Patriots had a very good defense in Tom’s early years, and certainly was a huge factor in the first 3 Super Bowls. People say Brady was carried by his defenses, which is not the case. From 2001-2004, with Brady coming in as a backup, he put together 10 4th quarter comebacks and 15 game winning drives. The numbers seem to show he did his part and then some, but that’s not what the haters want you to think.

Brady led the NFL in TD passes in 2002, so it’s not a reach at all to say the Patriots may have not won those Super Bowls without Tom Brady. For example, in Super Bowl 38 the Pats defense gave up 29 points to the Panthers. A young QB named Tom Brady going up against a fierce defense threw for 354 yards, 3 TDs and his second clutch SB game winning drive. Without Brady things could’ve been a lot different that day.

Jumping ahead to Patriots Defenses that weren’t as talented. The four year stretch from 2010-2013, New England’s defense was never better than 25th in total yards allowed. But again Brady in 2010 won MVP and got the #1 seed. 2011 the Pats were back in the Super Bowl despite being 31st in yards against, and that’s due to Tom Brady. In 2012 and 2013, Brady and the Pats went back to the AFC Championship but lost. Some people think going as far as possible in sports and losing is worse than not making the championship game at all. Ridiculous.

In 2017 the defense was ranked 29th. Brady and the offense once again were back in the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick shocked Pats nation by benching Malcolm Butler. The defense got shredded by a backup QB, giving up 41 points. Even in defeat Brady put up historic numbers, throwing for 505 yards with 3 TDs with no INTs.

My conclusion on this theory about his Defenses is that Brady always has done his part to win games and make it to the AFC Championship or Super Bowl. I don’t see him being carried by anything, like the haters do. Another interesting stat: In 17 seasons the Pats Defense was statistically better than the offense only 3 times. In 9 of those 17 seasons with Brady as the starter, the defense was ranked 20th or worse in yards allowed. Defensive “myth” shut down with facts.

“Joe Montana Never Lost in the Super Bowl”

Key Number here is 4

The debate over Montana and Brady has many factors. Joe Montana was the Greatest ever in my eyes, up until Brady’s comeback in Super Bowl 49 against the Seahawks. Since Brady tied Montana with 4 Super Bowl wins, he has gone to 3 straight Super Bowls and won 2. The real crime here is the loss to the eagles. Brady had the best Super Bowl performance of all time.

Some people say Brady can’t be better than Montana because Joe cool never lost in his 4 chances. The fact of the matter is that every athlete would tell you getting to the Championship and losing is better than not making it there at all. As we all know, Brady’s been to 9 Super Bowls with 6 wins. Let’s not forget the amount of Hall Of Fame players Montana had on both sides of the ball. He also had a coach in Bill Walsh who came up with an offense no one had ever seen before. It took years for teams to adjust to this new style of football, a great coach and system that Montana thrived in.

Brady on the other hand did not, and still doesn’t have anywhere close to the number of Hall Of Fame players Joe had. The comebacks alone in Super Bowls favor Brady, having 6 in 6 wins. And did his part in the losses too, by getting the lead, only for the defense to break at the end.

Montana has been bounced twice in the divisional round, twice in the Wild Card and three times in the NFC Championship. Montana in 11 seasons has gone one and done in the playoffs 4 times.

The GOAT Tom Brady in 16 playoff runs is 13-2 in the divisional round, 2-1 in the WC round and 9-4 in the AFC Championship. Brady in 16 seasons has gone one and done just twice in the playoffs.

Is 4-0 better than 6-3 in the Super Bowl? If you’ve never played sports then maybe you’d say yes. The ultimate goal of any athlete is to go as far as you can. That is something Brady’s done better than Montana. Doing so with less talent, an offense that has been seen before (unlike the 49ers), all while getting better with age. Brady wins this round, the numbers don’t lie.

“Montana Played in a Tougher and Better Era”

Again, not taking anything away from Joe Montana, I’m just telling it how it is. Sure the rules for QBs have changed over the years, but Brady played in a tough era of football himself. Rule changes to help offenses didn’t make an ounce of a difference until 2011. QB numbers didn’t go up or benefit Brady for an entire decade. From 2000-2011 only two players had a season with great numbers, Brady in 2007 and Manning in 2004. Since 2011 pretty much every QBs numbers are inflated like never before.

Defining the toughness of different eras contains a few different things:

Free Agency -Montana played when teams didn’t change and Hall Of Fame players typically stayed together. Brady has had a revolving door of players throughout his entire career, mostly castaways who were turned into Champions.

Defensive players -Tom Brady has played and shredded some of the best defenders and all time defensive units and coaches. The 2000 Steelers and Ravens, 2003 Buccaneers, The LOB Seahawks were no match in the Super Bowl, 2015 Broncos, 2017 Jags, the two Giants Super Bowl teams and the 2018 Rams. Just think of the players on those teams, and how if it weren’t for Brady most of them would have Super Bowl rings.

Geography – Joe Montana Played in a sunny warm climate, while Brady’s been playing in the Northeast. Freezing temperatures, snow and rain in a division where he plays in Boston and New York. No problem for #12.

This is the first of my 3 part Myth Busting Brady Hate. Next up will be topics like “The AFC Least”, “Deflategate, “Brady has no records” and my personal favorite: QBs like Rodgers, Marino, Brees and Manning being on Tom Brady’s level. Starting to feel like I’m writing a book, so these next topics plus more will be coming out soon. Hope you Pats fans can use some of these facts when arguing with Brady hating friends.

Trent Brown: Who Is This Guy?

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The Belichick strikes again!

The chicken littles came out when in force when Nate Solder left the Patriots in free agency. “How could they let him go”, and “No one on the team can replace him.” Sprinkle in a couple “You gotta protect Tom Brady!”

His Plan

So what does he do? Does he overpay for some of the other departing free agents in a panic? Does he sign marginal free agents in hopes that they stick? No, he waits. And he waits. Then when the moment and the situation is right, he strikes! Selecting Isaiah Wynn to join the team and recently resigned LaAdrian Waddle. Ok, the littles got a little quieter. “But, he’s a rookie” and “He should play guard,” joined the chorus.

 

Then Friday morning of the draft, news broke that the Patriots traded with the San Francisco 49ers to acquire right tackle Trent Brown. The internet was abuzz with the new look of the Patriots offensive line and what the position coach, Dante Scarnecchia, was going to be working with in training camp. So, who is Trent Brown? Is he going to protect the blind side? Why was he traded? Will we be hearing his name in February as a starter in the Super Bowl or a surprise cut in August?

The Man

Trent Brown was one of those nondescript draft picks, number 244 in the seventh round. If there were any remarks about the developmental prospect, it centered around how large he was for a player. 355 pounds of a tackle is both a blessing and a curse. While the weight will help to anchor and provide blocking power it can also lead to sloppy technique and lack of conditioning. His college career also was that of a young man still learning. He played at junior college Georgia Military College before enrolling at Florida. Brown would start at both tackle and guard before entering the draft in 2015

His Path

Proving that everyone’s football journey is different, Trent Brown actually started the last two games of his rookie season. He followed that up by starting all sixteen games in his sophomore season. This is an accomplishment for any player, let alone a seventh-round pick.

His Game

Are the Patriots getting a raw prospect that uses his bulk to overpower smaller opponents? If anything, the opposite. While his run blocking could use some refinement and improvement, his pass blocking is near elite. PFF graded his injury-shortened 2017 at 86.0, good enough for third on the year. Only Joe Thomas and Jason Peter graded out higher. Good company.

His Future

And consider this widely circulated quote from Von Miller. “He’s the best right tackle in the National Football League. And he may even be a top-five tackle, period, in the National Football League. There’s not another tackle who’s that tall, that big and can move the way he moves.” I’ll take it.

 

So how did the Patriots manage to score such a prize? For merely moving back two rounds they have a mountain of a man that could become an elite left tackle for the best quarterback in the NFL. The dreaded regime change. Kyle Shanahan took over the 49ers before the 2017 season. There were some rumors about toughness and ability to play through injury that will have to be monitored. The biggest factor to me is that Shanahan likes to move his tackles and guards around. Pull them for blocking assignments and get them to the second level. And while Brown is very athletic and agile for his size it still is difficult for a man his size to do the things Shanahan asks of his linemen.

 

Don’t think the Patriots acquired damaged goods or a disgruntled player. Think that they are getting a superb pass blocker that is an ascending player. If he wins the left tackle or right tackle job or some other combination of personnel, he will make his presence known.

Cassius Marsh: ‘No Fun in New England’

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Cassius Marsh Didn’t like the Drama in New England

Via Niners NationSan Francisco 49ers defensive end Cassius Marsh hated being with the New England Patriots last season. Marsh didn’t even enjoy his time just a little bit with the Patriots. Bill Belichick is known for running a tight ship in New England, and some players like it and others don’t. Even with the recent drama with the team, Belichick is still trying to run a tight and strict operation.

Marsh told Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle, “They don’t have fun there. There’s nothing fun about it. There’s nothing happy about it. I didn’t enjoy any of my time there, you know what I’m saying? It made me for the first time in my life think about not playing football because I hated it that much.” Marsh also added that he requested to be cut by the Patriots last November.

“I confronted [Bill Belichick] about all the things that were going on. I won’t get into detail, but it was B.S. things they were doing… And so I, basically, without asking to get cut, I kind of asked to get cut… I had confidence that I would have an opportunity elsewhere and I would take advantage of it.”

The Strict Lifestyle in New England Wins Championships

Cassius Marsh, also told Branch, “They asked me to do a bunch of stuff that I had never done: Covering running backs and receivers and basically almost never rushing the passer, which is what I did in playing defensive line.”

After the Patriots released him in November, the 49ers picked him up on waivers. Marsh was upset with the whole Patriots’ operation. Marsh didn’t want to get into the detail of what was going on because it’s already been released. At the end of the day, though, if you don’t like the strict lifestyle of the Patriots, then it’s not the right team for you.

Is a Brady-Garoppolo Super Bowl in the Forecast?

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JIMMY G TRADED TO SAN FRAN

In October of 2017, the Patriots traded away QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers for a 2018 second round pick. Prior to the transaction, Jimmy G was presumably New England’s QB of the future, as Tom Brady is nearing the end of his career. For this reason, many New England fans were troubled by the move. However, as I like to say “In Bill We Trust”. In other words, I personally did not question the move because as history shows, never question Belichick’s actions because he is always right.

49ERS PRIOR TO ACQUIRING GAROPPOLO

Image result for 49ers loss

ninernoise.com

Since a brief run of being an elite team from 2011-2013, the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. They have gone just 13-35 over the past three seasons. The offseason acquisition of former Falcons’ offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was a step in the right direction however the roster still lacked talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The first half of the season was evident that the Shanahan signing was not quite enough as San Fran started the season 0-9. Prior to starting Jimmy G, they were 1-10. During that span they allowed twenty-six points per game while only scoring seventeen. Luckily for San Fran, a savior was sent over from New England.

JIMMY G UNDER CENTER FOR SAN FRAN

Image result for jimmy g 49ers win

mercurynews.com

The Niners were an entirely different team once Jimmy G took over at QB. For starters, they went 5-0. The most remarkable wins came in the final two games of the season. In Week 16 they took down the Jaguars while scoring forty-four points on possibly the league’s best defense. Then the following week they stormed into LA and beat the Rams 34-13. Granted, the Rams were resting some players but it was still a very impressive road win. During the five-game win streak the Niners scored 28.8 points per game. That total was just one point less than the league-leading mark set by the Rams. Also, the efficiency of the offense vastly improved the play of the defense. During Jimmy G’s starts they allowed a respectable 19.8 points which was six less than they allowed through the first twelve weeks.

TB12 VS JIMMY G SUPER BOWL?

For 2018 it may be a stretch due for this to happen due to the strength of the NFC. However it is certainly not out of the question. Though it was a short period of time, San Fran played exceptional with Garoppolo at QB. They played well enough to make me question what the ceiling for this team really is. They have some solid weapons on offense with Carlos Hyde, Marquise Goodwin, and Matt Breida. If they manage to make a few key moves on defense then this team could become legit as soon as next season. In all likelihood, it probably will not happen in 2018, but with other NFC teams getting older a Brady vs Garoppolo Superbowl could certainly happen. Such an event would certainly be all a New England fan could ask for.

 

 

*Questions or comments? Find me on Twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

*Feature picture credit goes to WEEI.com*

NFL Week 15 Winners and Losers

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Week 15 featured a plethora of the season’s best match ups on paper. Chiefs vs Chargers, Panthers vs Aaron Rod- I mean the Packers, Seahawks vs Rams and of course: New England at Pittsburgh. Many of you probably know how the latter ended and are filled with either joy or rage based on geographic location. If you do not know how it ended, New England won 27-24 thanks to another heroic performance by Tom Brady, as well as a controversial call. Both teams played well enough to win and appear to be on a collision course to meet in the AFC Championship, therefore neither made the Winner or Loser list this week. Anyways, With playoff implications running haywire, let’s see who prevailed and who failed.

P.S. this week’s winners and losers lists are predominantly focused towards teams with playoff scenarios

Week 15 Winners

Dallas Cowboys: 20-17 W @ Oakland

I feel as though Dallas has been featured in this segment on almost a weekly basis. I guess that says something about the inconsistency of Dak and company sans Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have very quietly won three straight games. This win streak has them right in the thick of wild card contention. Dallas will have to win their last two games, which will be tough. In Week 16 they host Seattle and then travel to Philly to face the Wentz-less Eagles. Good news for Dallas: Zeke returns this week and they are seemingly a completely different team when he plays. His return makes their final two games look a lot more winnable. I don’t think any team wants to face Dallas with a well-rested Zeke come playoff time.

Cowboys playoff scenarios: if Detroit loses one of their final two games AND New Orleans, Atlanta or Carolina lose their final two games, then Dallas will earn a wildcard spot.

Detroit Lions: 20-10 W vs Chicago

Okay, a 10 point win at home vs the 4-9 Bears? Big deal. Certainly not the most impressive win, but it was not unimpressive. More importantly, Detroit did what they had to do to remain in playoff contention. This win improved their record to 8-6. Perhaps the best news for Detroit this week was Aaron Rodgers being placed on IR. This means that in Week 17 Detroit will get to host the Rodgers-less Packers, making it a very winnable game. Well, before I get ahead of myself they still have to rely on teams above them to collapse as well as win at Cincinnati in Week 16. Should not be a very tall task versus a team that has been outscored 67-14 over the past two weeks. But hey, you never know. I mean, wouldn’t that be the most Lions-y thing to do?

San Francisco 49ers: 25-23 W vs Tennessee

I feel as though the Niners deserve a spot under this column. Jimmy G and company delivered a quality win over a quality opponent. Jimmy G carried the load offensively going 31-43 with a TD, no picks and a 89.5 QBR. This performance included a clutch fourth quarter drive. Jimmy G took the Niners down the field from their own 25 with a little over a minute remaining. After going 3-4 for 45 yards, Garoppolo set up the 45 yard game-winning field goal for Robbie Gould. And just like that, San Fran has now won three straight with Jimmy under center.

Okay, so San Fran is still just 4-10 and has absolutely no shot at even coming close to a playoff spot. However, the Niners deserve this high praise for heading in a very good direction towards a bright future. Plenty of other franchises are probably jealous of San Fran due to the fact that they have found a franchise QB. quality QB’s are a hot commodity nowadays. However, San Fran still lacks a few key pieces on both sides of the ball. Also, they really need to work on red zone efficiency. During their 3 game win streak they have scored just three touchdowns while kicking 15 field goals. Too many points left on the board.

Side note: imagine next year’s NFC West with a much improved 49ers squad?

Image result for jimmy garoppolo 49ers win

Week 15 Losers

Seattle Seahawks: 42-7 L vs LA Rams

Cringe-worthy loss in week 15 for Seattle. Of course, key injuries have made it nearly impossible for Seattle to dominate like in years past, but come on, 42-7 at home with massive playoff and division title implications on the line? Not impressed. This loss really made the playoffs seem like a stretch for this years Seahawks. Still though, credit the Rams, who rolled into Seattle seeking revenge from their last meeting and got what they wanted. Also, credit Todd Gurley for being pretty much unstoppable. He ran for 152 yards and three TD’s on 21 carries. Oh and he had three catches for 28 yards and another TD. Imagine if it was a close game and Gurley remained in the lead-back role for all four quarters? He probably would have had six touchdowns and 300 total yards. Oh… right, this was supposed to be about the Seahawks. Oh well, it’s onto Dallas for Seattle for a true “must win”.

Image result for russell wilson loss vs rams

Los Angeles chargers: 30-13 loss @ Kansas City

I was really hoping that the Chargers would prove to me that they are legit. I can not help but root for those guys. Phillip Rivers is often criticized for turnovers and poor attitude. However, he is a very good QB and is putting together a very solid season. Entering this game he had 19 TD’s and just three interceptions over his past 10 games. His most impressive characteristic in my opinion is his competitiveness. If you watch this guy, it is easy to tell he wants to win. Some claim he is a cry baby or a poor sport, I think those people are confusing his fire and passion for whining. Anyways, it was time for LA to prove to the league they are for real. Fighting for the division title on the road, a win could have been a statement,  so what did they do? Flop.

Fortunately, it is not over for LA who currently hold a record of 7-7. Kansas City is only a game ahead in the AFC West while Buffalo, Baltimore and Tennessee are also only a game ahead in the wild card race.

Oakland Raiders: 20-17 loss vs Dallas

What was supposed to be a fantastic season for Oakland turned out to be a disaster. The home loss to Dallas put Oakland at 6-8 for the season. Theoretically, the Raiders could still sneak into the playoffs but the Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Dolphins and Bills would have to lose a combined 8032753238203 games, pretty unlikely. Really not sure what to think of this team moving forward. Hoping, for their sake that this year was the fluke and not last year, but I am not convinced. Also, what the bleep was Derek Carr thinking trying to score on that final play of the game? I understand he was trying to win the game for his team, but he already had the first down and needed just a field goal in order to tie the game. It would have been first and goal from the three yard line had he just ran out of bounds. This one is one is on him. Come on Derek Carr, you’re better than that… or are you?

Image result for derek carr loss

 

 

*Questions or comments? Find me at @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*