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About @b_sam54

Born and raised in Massachusetts - I'm a life long fan of the game of basketball. Please message or tweet at me about the articles and let's talk about what is going on in Celtics land.

Brad Stevens Named Coach of the Month

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Brad Stevens has been named Eastern Conference Coach of the Month. According the nba.com, “The fifth-year Celtics coach guided his squad to a league-best 19-4 record during the first month and a half of the 2017-18 season, despite dealing with a plethora of unexpected obstacles”.

Some notes:

  • Brad and the team overcame the Gordon Hayward injury (so far).
  • They added 10 new players during the offseason.
  • The team’s margin of Victory is 7 point per game (teamrankings.com).
  • The team’s opponents points per game is first in the league (teamrankings.com).
  • Brad and the Celtics produced a 16 game win streak.

To top it all off, Wednesday (11/29) was the first time that the Celtics made it into their Waltham practices facility in over a month (nbcsports.com). That makes this accomplishment even more impressive. Brad coached through film, during games, on buses, on visitor practices courts – but without dedicated time at home. In my opinion, that makes his revisions and iterations even more unique.

Congratulations, Brad and the Celtics.

 

 

Would the Celtics Be Better with Gordon Hayward?

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Just over two months ago expectations for the Celtics’ were sky-high. A hugely productive off-season that brought Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward to Boston also brought massive expectations. The Garden was loud on opening night. But just a few minutes into the game, Gordon Hayward came crashing down and so did the Celtics. We were done. There goes our pick. We lost the game. Our team is lost. For Celtics fans, that was a dark day. But now, the Celtics boast a league leading 19 wins with only 4 losses. So that begs the question: would the Celtics be better than with Gordon Hayward on the court?

Jayson Tatum is the primary beneficiary of Hayward’s vacated minutes. According to teamrankings.com, he is playing 30 minutes a game, averaging 13.74 PPG, 5.26RPG and 1.48APG. Among a great rookie class, Tatum is keeping pace and making a bid for rookie of the year. That said, Hayward is still a better player. Last year he played 35 minutes again averaging 21.9 PPG, 5.4RPG and 3.5APG. That was with the turtle paced Utah Jazz. Sure, there would be an adjustment period with the Celtics, and Tatum shows ton of promise. However I’d still pick Hayward scoring and facilitation.

Embed from Getty Images

The Numbers Don’t Lie

This year, the Celtics are only 19th in the league in scoring, but are #4 in margin of victory. Thanks in large part to their defense. They have only allowed 96.8 opponent points per game this year, which is #1 in the league. The Celtics still struggle to get points in the paint, but I don’t think having or not having Hayward makes a difference there. Even though the Celtics’ defense is top 5 in the league during the first half, the offense sputters. They are ranked #23 in the first quarter and #27 in the second quarter respectively (teamrankings.com). If Hayward was starting, we would see the second unit’s offense run through Tatum. We’d likely see Tatum’s efficiency rise when playing against the competition’s 6, 7 and 8th men. This is where we miss Hayward the most. Because what would be our second unit’s core of Tatum, Brown and Marcus Smart, now go up against starters, we don’t get to see them wreak havoc against others teams’ benches.

In summary, the Celtics would be a better team with Hayward – even with a current record that is just about impossible to beat. That said, getting guys like Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum, Marcus Smart, Semi Ojeleye and Jabari Bird get minutes – on a winning team is priceless for our future. Typically, it’s either lots of development minutes on a losing team or playing garbage time for a contender. These Celtics’ players are getting better and learning how to win at the same time – that’s special. When Hayward comes back, this team will be deep, experienced and have real world knowledge of how to win.

 

Kyrie and IT Trade Reactions

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It’s been a wild 24 hours for the Celtics, after an off season that has already give Celtics fans a some cause to order that celebratory drink.  In fact, we just posted “Way-to0-early predictions” and you can’t help but ask if this team adds a few more Ws to our Celtics’ cause.

Chris and I found ourselves debating the merits of IT, the trade and their histories and decided to take it public so you can weigh in.  But, before we get started, let’s say a collective THANK YOU to Isaiah Thomas.  He brought it for the fans and his teammates every night.  The things he did off the court, like recruiting other players to our cause, had a significant impact on this team.  So, thank you Isaiah.  But, this is a business, so let’s talk…

Chris:  There are probably a lot of people with negative emotional reactions to this trade. However, this won’t be your typical “heart says no, head says yes” argument. In my opinion, this is an objectively bad trade from a value standpoint. Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas are very similar players. They’re both great PGs. But Isaiah Thomas fit the system perfectly. Excellent pick and roll player, great at attacking the rim or pulling up and shooting from range. Excellent getting to the line, and one of the very best free throw shooters in the NBA. While Kyrie is also undeniably a great player, paying Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic and the BKN ’18 pick to swap Thomas for a younger, less seamlessly fitting, version of himself seems like a massive overpay.

The trade by the numbers

First, play-type data from nbamath.com shows Thomas as the massively superior player both offensively and defensively last season. (And far superior in the pick and roll offensively, a bread-and-butter play for the Cs.) And this isn’t a volume stat. This isn’t a “well he ran more PnR so of course he accumulated more points in this type of situation. We’re talking points per possession, an efficiency stat that volume usually drags down. Thomas was a top 10 NBA player in Win Shares. He was top six in Win Shares Per 48. He scored 29 points per game as the sole focal point of the defense, attracting numerous double and triple teams and baseline and half-court traps. Thomas could get to the free throw line as well as anyone not named James Harden, and he was the second-best free throw shooter by percentage in
the NBA last season.

Brett: I’m not going to lie, I had an emotional reaction to this trade.  I think ITs commitment to the fan base is irreplaceable.  From all accounts, he was a great teammate, has a strong work ethic and is an all around good guy.  Kyrie got some of those qualities, but (and maybe it is because I don’t live in Cleveland) – I didn’t see as much of that.  That said, bringing a guy who can create his own shot and needs less help in post defense.  Sure, neither are great defensive players but Kyrie hasn’t had a coach like Stevens and can learn a new system, IT can’t grow.

I have a different perspective on the win shares.  Did he score, yes.  Did the team have anyone else who could come close to that, no.  Lebron (according to ESPN) averaged about 33 points again, Kyrie 26 and Love 17.  The top three Celtics players had Thomas at 23, Bradley with 17 and Horford at 15 for the 2016 season.  Boston needed to run plays, to provide Thomas room to find his shot.  Even competing for his shots in Cleveland with higher performing players around him, Kyrie was a top 20 ppg guy.

The algorithms of basketball

Chris:  Kyrie is also a great player. However, Kyrie Irving is a less efficient scorer. Sometimes this isn’t necessarily his fault, he excels at less efficient play types like isolation sets out of the high post. But the fact remains. This is especially concerning as Kyrie was playing with the greatest basketball player on earth and for a great three-point shooting team featuring the likes of Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye. Usually playing alongside other super-stars has statistical side effects. It may temper your counting stats, as you won’t see the ball as much or get as many shots. However, it usually increases efficiency. Celtics fans saw this effect first-hand when Pierce, Garnett, and Allen joined together. The all experienced drops in raw production of counting stats, but the best efficiency of their careers.

Kyrie is also not an improvement defensively. Again, turning to nbamath.com, one can see that Kyrie was a massive negative in several play-types. While Isaiah Thomas was also a negative defender, his negative impact on that side of the ball has been far overstated. Kyrie was actually far worse.

Brett: Ok, Chris, I hear you, and according to nbamath.com almost 20% of Isaiahs shots in the last two years came off screens or hand offs where Kyrie needed that help half as often.  In fact, Kyrie was able to play isolation more than twice as often as the It.  I supposed someone could argue thats that nature of these two teams systems.  but for Kyrie to spend 20% of his team in isolation with guys like LeBron and Love on the team is undeniable.    So, Isaiah needs his teammates to put extra miles on their legs to get him open where Kyrie can create his own shot.  Two sides of the same coin?  Maybe, but Kyrie’s value added in isolation is twice as strong as IT.

Celtics sacrifice?

Then there is the value side of what the Celtics gave up. The BKN pick was a prime asset. The 2018 draft class appears to be excellent. Zizic had very promising overseas numbers. Guys like Porzingis, Jokic, and Nurkic played comparably during their overseas careers. Zizic may not pan out like them, and isn’t a three-point shooting or offensively skilled unicorn like Porzingis, but he is a nice prospect. And Jae Crowder was included in the trade as well.

The thought of the Cavs lining up Isaiah Thomas, J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Jae Crowder at the four, and either Tristan Thompson or Kevin Love at the five looks terrifying. Crowder can defend the three’s and four’s of the modern NBA and hit spot-up and catch and shoot threes at a 40% rate.   Crowder represents one of the best value contracts in the league. All this for a player who will cost roughly $14M dollars more than Isaiah Thomas this season, and has an opt-out after two years. For all the whining about paying Isaiah Thomas max money, Thomas was still on the books for a bargain price this year, and Kyrie will need the exact same max to stick around just a year later.

 

This trade stands as a massive gamble and still possibly a massive overplay. The Celtics have to hope they can integrate Kyrie in their system.   They’ll need to transform him from an isolation player to a read-and-react offense, pick-and-roll heavy type system fit. They have to work on his shot selection. They have to hope Kyrie can duplicate the success Thomas had last year.

Even if you believe Kyrie has superior talent, which doesn’t necessarily showing up in the objective evidence, this won’t be a slam dunk because Isaiah was such a great system fit. The Celtics also have to hope Kyrie re-signs with the team in two years. If he walks, it’s a terrible trade.

The Celtics also have gambled on IT and LBJ leaving CLE in a year. If they both leave, and Kyrie works out, they’ll look like geniuses. If LBJ, IT, Love, TT, and Jae all excel together and decide to stick around, it may not matter how well Kyrie integrates into our system. So not only is this trade a risk in the short-term, but the best long-term asset in the trade went to CLE. And that is the BKN pick. In three years if Kyrie Irving is playing elsewhere and the Cavaliers have a young lottery stud to groom, this will be a terrible trade.

Consider the upside

There is potential for this trade to work. Kyrie could excel in the Celtics system like Isaiah did. Kyrie came from an ISO-centric system in college. Perhaps coming to a motion heavy, PnR-heavy, read-and-react offense will be a breath of fresh air. He’s a great ball handler, finisher and shooter. He could re-sign with the team. He is younger than Isaiah. (Though the two have very similar mileage in terms of NCAA+NBA combined minutes.  Thomas was a four-year college player, and didn’t jump up to an 82 game grind as early as Kyrie did.) The Celtics now have two years to make a max contract decision on their star PG instead of one. While Isaiah Thomas has been the far more durable player in their careers to date, and the hip is probably being over-stated as a concern, Kyrie is healthier right now and will be to start the season. The Celtics may have had to deal with a slight delay with Thomas. That’s probably not a big issue long term, but now they should start the season fully healthy as a team, which is always nice.

Way-too-early NBA predictions on the 2017 Celtics

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Enthusiasm for a season hasn’t been this high since the Big 3 came to town, but with some young studs, proven veterans and our second free agent in as many seasons, we have plenty to be excited about.   A lot of people feel that tipping the scales at 53 wins and the #1 season was an over achievement – so if the Celtics simply’ achieve’ how much more can we expect?  I hit the streets, Twitter, and my fantasy football league (they like the Celtics too) to find out fan predictions for the 2017 season.

New York Knicks v Boston Celtics - Game Six

BOSTON, MA – MAY 3: Paul Pierce #34 of the Boston Celtics and Kevin Garnett #5 exchange words in the final moment in the 4th quarter in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals of the 2013 NBA Playoffs on May 3, 2013 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics lost 88-80. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Survey says…

“I don’t see them eclipsing last years total in wins and am going to keep them at 53 wins.  The battle will be similar to last year between Toronto and Boston for the Atlantic Division with the April 4th contest between the two being deciding factor for who will see first Cleveland in the post season” – @JoshBeRube

“Celtics last season’s record was 53-29. The question everyone asks, though, did they improve that much this off season? The loss of Avery Bradley certainly hurts as he was one of our defensive bulldogs . With the addition of Gordon Hayward and another year of being with the Celtics for big Al , I can only see our record improving to what could possibly be a nice 58-24 record improving us by 5 wins. 60 is a big chance especially with how weak the East has become.  For the number one seed it’s a two-horse race between the Celtics and Cavaliers. As long as Lebron James is at Cleveland, he will continue to push and fight. In terms of playoffs, we look ready to reach the Conference finals in a replay against the Cavaliers. The Celtics look stronger, and our bench depth will become a big factor when we bring in the second unit and need scoring from the likes of Tatum, Rozier, Brown and Smart. We may be able to take Cleveland to a seven-game series but sadly going down 4-3 if the Cavs’ roster stays intact. Hold tight though, Bean town! The future is ever so bright and we can only look forward to what we have to come with the likes of rookies and even Boston being a popular destination for free agents to sign here.”  -@mitchphillipsbc
2017 Las Vegas Summer League - Portland Trail Blazers v Boston Celtics

LAS VEGAS, NV – JULY 09: P.J. Carlesimo (L) gets ready to interview Jayson Tatum #11 of the Boston Celtics after the team’s 70-64 win over the Portland Trail Blazers in a 2017 Summer League game at the Thomas & Mack Center on July 9, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

“57-25(53-29) +4 wins . The addition of Gordon Hayward gives the Celtics the scorer they need. Then a bigger starting lineup will give them a better chance to win the rebound battle. I imagine they will start off slow but their talent and having a more equipped bench than most teams – will allow them win while learning to play together.   Once they get on the same page, you will see short runs and flashes of what the team will be come playoff time. It may take a while, but once they are up and running they will be fine.” – @BlaiseG1991
“I’d like to be 52-30.  We’re a better team this year but getting some of the younger guys more minutes and time to develop is in the best interest of the team in the long run.  I think Stevens will play to that and we’ll be a better team come playoffs because of it.”  – Adam K
“I think the entire “net” will be three more games than last year.  Good for 56 wins, second seed.  They get to the ECFs and lose in six.  Not buying all the dysfunction in Cleveland.   Cavs are shooting for the best record and home court throughout the playoffs.” – Chris R
“They may struggle a little to start the season, as half the team has turned over, but will get hot late.  They will finish 51-31, to earn 2nd seed.  Brad Steven’s will experiment will different line-ups early, knowing that the team will have time to make up ground in an extremely weak Eastern Conference.  They will reach the Eastern Conference Finals, but lost to the Cavs in five games.  LeBrown is just too much to handle, ITs defense will again be an issue and three of the four Cavs wins will be by four points or less.”  – @williesteegz
“Celtics will be 56-26 and another 1 seed.  Got better adding Hayward and Jaylen Brown will take a leap forward with more minutes.  Tatum will provide instant scoring.  Teams also can’t focus on IT the whole time which will open up the paint and allow for him to get to the rack and either put it up or dish it to the shooter.  Cavs are in disarray and Kyrie is most likely gone.”  – @MatthewKusch1
I tend to agree with the folks expecting about 55 wins.  The team is more talented than last year, but as @Williesteegz said, half the team has turned over.  You can’t argue that the acquisition of Gordon Hayward and having one of the deepest benches in the league with overcome much of the “first-day-in-a-new- school syndrome” but it’s there.  All in all, the team has the talent, but we’ve seen talented teams underachieve in the past if they lose their identity.  Don’t forget, the C’s have one of their more difficult schedules in recent memory with 25 nationally televised games (If Rondo was still here, he’d probably have his best season) – for more schedule analysis keep an eye out for @JoshBeRube’s article later this week.
 Brad Stevens has his most exciting roster, but it’s on him to ensure the pieces don’t just fit, but overachieve (again).

Which Boston Celtics’ Player Reaches New Heights in 2017 NBA Season

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As a team, the Celtics have improved a lot over the 2016-2017 squad.  Considering they were the number-one seed in the east and went to the conference finals, it’s very impressive.  This group is especially interesting to most fans. With the added veteran talent, Boston has a lot of young players who could take the leap.  Currently, 10 of the players on Boston’s payroll are working through their first four years in the league. We’ve also brought in Gordon Hayward who will help everyone create his own shot.  To dive in-more, I reached out to the BostonSportsExtra.com staff, a fan or two and a local radio pal to get their take.

Survey Says…

“Marcus Smart, because he will most likely transition into the starting two guard and gain valuable playing time to make him a future point guard.  He might get paid instead of Isaiah Thomas” – Don @cjoneswho1212

“Al Horford. Another year with Steven’s and now a more veteran starting corp. The fans were kind of down on him.” – Andrew @ALykins32
“He isn’t the answer to that question, but I like Yabusele a lot for a couple years down the road.  I think he has great upside and is very athletic.  For this year, I might go Jaylen Brown. 2nd year in NBA, knows how things work now, will get a lot of rotational minutes and I expect a nice year out of him.” – Scott @TheFrizz87
“I’m going Al Horford because he will own inside now that Hayward is there.” – Jeff @JeffJardine3
“I say Jaylen Brown. The kid showed he is willing to learn (coachable)  and glimpses of athleticism that cannot be taught. Not to mention he can play D. LeBron was +21.6 net rating, 64.3 EFG% with Jaylen on Bench and a -2.3 Net rating and 50.0 eFG% with Jaylen on the floor (CSNNE).  Plus Brown avg. 17 minutes as a rookie, 2.8 boards and 6.6 points. The ceiling is high and I see him and Rozier lighting up 2nd unit teams..  Not to mention he played in 78 games.  Brad trusts him.  I see him marking the leap just as Marcus Smart did.  – Josh @JoShBeRuBee

Smart Money on Brown

Most people will say, Smart. While I think Smart will have his best year yet, with Avery’a departure, I’ll have to give the nod to Jaylen The GOAT Brown. Last season when Avery went down with the injury, Jaylen took that SG position. The Celtics were 10-1 with him on the lineup. We have seen the flashes of what he can become. Statistically he will improve. On the court, you will see a different player and that will earn him lots of minutes. I’ve seen pictures of him this offseason — he looks even bigger (He already had a NBA body). His shooting will once again shock people. Handles still need some work, but I believe Brown to be the starting SG once the season begins. – Ricard0 @kaardovieira
Marcus Smart will work to improve this off season and will be an important player to the Celtics system this year. Smart brings intensity, strength and determination both on and off the floor. He struggles with his shooting woes but with practice and a consistent jump shot, I believe he could make the biggest leap. I’m think he will get a big upgrade in his minutes per game with Bradley gone.  He has some shoes to fill. Exciting times but I think Smart can rise to the occasion. – Mitch@mitchphillipsbc
Jaylen Brown should take the biggest leap this season. Marcus Smart will play above his head in a contract year. If you look at the money Roberson got on OKC 3/30 and Waiters in Miami 4/53. He will get that money or more in a weak free agent class – Joe @JoeyMurr
Looks like it’s a three way tie between Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford.  I was surprised to see a vet like Horford in the mix, but with a lot more room to move and surrounded by more play makers, his stats should go up.  All that said, I’m in the Jaylen Brown camp.  His production during the post season, the departure of Gerald Green and his off-the-court maturity (he hosted a dinner for new players) makes me think he has the tools.
Fans, who do you think takes the leap this year?

We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Positions

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It used to be called “overloaded at the position.”  And when you couldn’t draft your need you “picked the best available.”  Then, if someone was under 6’3″ and couldn’t bring the ball up the court but could shoot, you had a “tweener.”  Suddenly, this always-avoided situation has become desirable and sexy. Position-less basketball has taken hold and it’s exactly what we’re going to see this year. As a Celtics fan, I love it.

We’re looking at a team and a league that have finally realized (some sarcasm coming) that putting your five best players on the court (‘cause size doesn’t matter) results in a better product.  Who woulda thunk?  Finally the days of “you need to draft a seven footer” or “you can’t teach height” have passed and the focus is on finding a team that can score, defend, and win. Who cares what they look like?  For all intents and purposes it’s NBA money ball (the book, which includes all the stats, not the movie). 

To be clear, I’m not hating on centers.  You know from my other articles that I love a good enforcer.  When my friends and I played “Space Jam” in the middle school courts I actually wanted to be Shawn Bradley.  My opinion does not value one position over another.  When you build a team where everyone can score and defend (IT doesn’t ruin this because his DEF rating is almost identical to Kyrie according stats.nba.com) then you will win.  It will also be fun to watch the switches, rotations and defensive assignments that will drive other teams bonkers.

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Just think about a starting lineup where everyone can bring the ball up in a pinch:

  • IT is going to run the point, but to free him up
  • Jaylen Brown might need to bring the ball up, and if he’s high flying then
  • Gordo can quarterback the play, and if he’s knocking down shots from all over the court then
  • Jae can grab the ball around half court and when he needs to get back on D
  • Horford has been known to take it coast to coast

Whether you agree with that starting line-up doesn’t matter.  All these folks can handle the ball and it works the other way around too.  Imagine the second unit grabbing boards:

  • Baynes is going to be a big guy to get around when going for boards, and if he gets tied up than
  • Marcus Morris can still pull down five boards a game, and if he’s busy closing someone out then
  • Tatum grabbed seven a game in college (according to sportsreference.com), but if he’s off scoring a million points then
  • Marcus Smart will out-grit the competition and if he’s still on the floor after diving for a loose ball then
  • Rozier will grab three boards/game (ESPN.com) just like he did last year.

Celtics fans are probably taking this where I want you to; which is everyone can do everything and seven of the 10 guys listed above might end up covering Lebron next spring.  Everyone else thinks that I’m overselling the Celtics.  Fine, maybe I’m being a little theatrical, but it’s not my fault.  I want to see seven-footers shoot and five- footers dunk.  It’s not my fault though.  Most of my formative basketball years started with Dee Brown and ended with Antoine Walker.

What do you think?   Is this this here to stay?  Will it work? http://gty.im/800014202