Author Archives: Thomas Howland

The Blueprint For 2019 Nathan Eovaldi: 2013 Koji Uehara

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There is much consternation about Nathan Eovaldi being rushed back. Part of this is due to the news that he will not be used on back to back days, at least to start. But the Red Sox have seen this act before, and it was a thing of beauty. In 2013 Koji Uehara was used with kids gloves and it resulted in a World Series Championship.

What it could look like

In 2013 Koji managed to rack up 21 Saves. He got his first Save on May17th, but he didn’t start getting them consistently until June 26th. In the end here are his raw days off numbers from that year:

  • Days worked with at least a day off: 80%
  • Days off before working back to back: 2.27
  • Times working three straight days: 1

It just so happened Uehara had five days off before his only time pitching back to back to back.

Eovaldi will be starting a month later, more or less, than when Koji started in 2013. But from here on out it’s conceivable he could save 15-20 games for the 2019 Red Sox. And while both pitchers had and have injury histories, Koji was 38, while Eovaldi is 29. Koji worked with guile and an almost unbelievable .565 WHIP. Incredibly, Nathan Eovaldi, pitching against the best competition in last year’s playoffs, had a .536 WHIP. And unlike Koji, he has high 90s heat.

Alex Cora will have a hard time not using Eovaldi back to back if there are save situations galore over the next two weeks against the Rays and Yankees. But Alex Cora is a better manager than John Farrell was. Having watched Uehara in 2013 we’ve seen this kind of thing before. It is not a reason to be worried about Nathan Eovaldi in the Closer’s role.

Featured Image Via The Boston Herald

Eduardo Nunez World Series Memories

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A celebration of some of Eduardo Nunez‘s greatest hits from the 2018 World Series Championship, in light of him being DFA’d by the Red Sox.

Game One, bottom of the 7th

With the Red Sox clinging to a 5-4 lead, Andrew Benintedi doubled, and J.D Martinez was intentially walked. Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogaerts struck out with Rafael Devers due up. Dave Roberts went to the bullpen for Alex Wood. Despite the fact that Devers had gone 1-2 against Clayton Kershaw, Alex Cora pinch hit with Eduardo Nunez. He promptly hit a three run bomb, providing the final scoring in a 8-4 Red Sox win. Here is Nunez telling Big Papi himself, David Ortiz, all about it:

Game Three, top of the 13th inning

In the top of the thirteenth inning he came up with Brock Holt standing on first. He was facing Dodger lefthander Scott Alexander, who promptly set the gimpy Nunez on his butt not once but twice. The second time was a wild pitch, and Holt ended up on second base. Meanwhile Nunez had the look of someone who was going out on a stretcher. After a visit from Cora and the trainer, Nunez hit the next pitch into no man’s land in front of the mound. Max Muncy, playing first base, broke for the ball, but the pitcher got there first. Enrique Hernandez, who was playing second, went to cover first, but gimpy Nunez busted it down the line doing what makes fans and commentators cringe, sliding into the bag headfirst. Alexander threw the ball beyond Kiki Hernandez’s grasp, Nunez was safe, and Holt scored.

Fox TV Screen Grab – Nunez celebrating after his headfirst slide.

Game Three, bottom of the 13th inning

With Muncy at first having walked, and Nathan Eovaldi pitching, Nunez was at third base. Cody Bellinger skied a ball near the stands by third. Nunez limp-sprinted over and made a catch going into the stands. An Ian Kinsler bad play allowed Muncy to score on the very next batter. But at the time it was it was a crucial out.

Fox TV Screen Grab – Nunez goes into the stands

Eduardo Nunez not only has one of the best smiles and laughs in the Major Leagues, but was a big part of the 2017 and 2018 Red Sox teams. He fell short this year, but his part on the 2018 World Series Championship will live on forever.

Featured Image via Fox TV Screen Grab

Andrew Cashner: Cheap Yankee/Rays Killer

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The Red Sox made a trade today with the Baltimore Orioles for right hand pitcher Andrew Cashner. Sure, Cashner is far from a perfect player. He has a 3.83 ERA this year, yet only a 4.25 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Essentially, he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters and walks around three per game. This means his ERA is more lucky than good. But he’s here for two reasons: He pitches well against the Rays and Yankees, and he’s cheap.

Cashner Against The Sox Direct Competition

Starting on July 22nd, the Red Sox will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees for 14 straight games. This stretch can’t win the division, but it could end the Sox season if they don’t play well. Brian Johnson has a 6.13 ERA this year. Hector Velazquez is at 5.52. Young Darwinzon Hernandez? 5.06. Lucky or not, Cashner’s 3.83 ERA is looking pretty good in comparison.

Over the past three seasons Andrew Cashner has a 3.61 ERA combined against both Tampa Bay and New York. In 62.1 innings he has 42 strikeouts and 21 walks. That’s not great, but it’s a decent sample size, and that ERA shows he knows how to pitch against those lineups. Sure, he’s only 3-4 in 10 games, but he’s been playing for the Orioles. They’re one of the worst teams in all of baseball.

The Cost

In terms of money, this fits right in to the Sox luxury tax problem. Opinions are varied, but Cashner will cost somewhere between $1.6 and $1.9 Million. The Orioles are even kicking in anywhere between $3-$5 Million in incentives that Cashner is due both now and next year.

You can’t get that kind of cash out of Peter Angelos and the Orioles unless you give something up. In this case, it’s a couple of 17 year olds:

Who know what these guys will become. Whatever it is is years away. The Red Sox season is in jeopardy of falling off a cliff. Nathan Eovaldi, a Yankee killer himself, is desperately needed in the bullpen. The options for the Red Sox in the starting rotation are not very good, and also don’t pitch deep into games. They had to do something, and per Dave Dombrowski’s M.O. they struck early.

Andrew Cashner has the ability to give the Sox just enough to make it an interesting summer.

Featured Image via the New York Post

Red Sox Bullpen Target: Greg Holland

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There’s a man who could help bring stability to the bullpen toiling away in the deserts of Arizona. Greg Holland could be just what the doctor ordered to combine with Nathan Eovaldi in the late innings for the Boston Red Sox.

Contract

What makes Holland such an attractive target is his salary. He is on a one year contract for $3.25 Million, with two $1 Million bonuses he is likely to achieve. Because half the season is gone, the Red Sox would only be on the hook for half the base plus bonuses. This fits into their extremely limited “salary cap’ space.

Pedigree

Greg Holland was the linchpin of the vaunted Kansas City 2014 AL Champion bullpen. During that postseason run he had a 0.82 ERA for a team that lost to the San Francisco Giants. But they did go on a run from the Wild Card all the way to the World Series. The next year the Royals won it all, but Holland went down in August of that year with an injury that led to Tommy John surgery. All in all he saved 145 games for the Royals over parts of six seasons.

He took 2016 off recovering from TJS, before emerging in Colorado to lead the league in Saves with 41 in 2017. He toiled in the setup role for the Cardinals and Nationals in 2018, predictably struggling without being the Closer for the first time in years, with a combined 4.66 ERA. This year he landed the Closer role in Arizona and has 14 Saves with a 3.30 ERA.

Arizona

Currently the Diamondbacks are 46-45 and 13.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They are 1.5 games out of the NL Wildcard. When spring training started they were hoping Archie Bradley would grab hold of the Closer role. Bradley has disappointed, but others, including Yoan Lopez (34 Innings, 11 Holds, 1.59 ERA, .94 WHIP), have stepped up. Over the next two weeks, if they falter even a little, they will look to sell and Holland will be a prime candidate to move.

Low Price

Because Holland’s ERA has risen from 2.08 to 3.30 recently he should come cheap. Cheaper than the popular names out there like Will Smith of the Giants or Felipe Vazquez of the Pirates. Likely it would be low level minor leaguers.

The Diamondbacks’ GM is former interim Red Sox GM Mike Hazen. He was Dave Dombrowski’s top aide during the 2016 season before taking the GM job in Arizona. There’s a lot of familiarity between the two teams. This means a deal could happen quickly. Holland has had time to get used to not being the main Closer on a team. Nathan Eovaldi will most likely not be used on back to back days. This would be an under the radar addition that could pay huge dividends.

Featured image via Myfantasysportstalk.com

Red Sox should add Zack Wheeler

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There are reports circulating that the Red Sox are talking to the Mets about Zack Wheeler. This is an arm the Red Sox should snap up.

Tommy John Surgery History

Wheeler came on for the Mets with a bang in 2013 with a 3.42 ERA as a rookie in 17 starts. The next year he went he had a 3.56 ERA and seemed to figure it out: His strikeout rate rose from 7.96 to 9.08 K/9. Alas, soon after he went under the knife, and lost 2015 and 2016 to Tommy John surgery and recovery. It was a long road, but it is a road in the past. He’s starting to pick it up.

Recent History & Potential Cost

In 2018 Wheeler finally looked like himself again. He maintained a 3.31 ERA and got his K/9 back to 8.84. This year that rate is at a career best 9.8. Yes, he has a 4.49 ERA on the year, but the Mets have been a mess, even more than the Red Sox. And his last start against the Yankees was a great one. He went 6.1 innings, struck out seven, and allowed two runs. Can you imagine that in London?

Wheeler has a lot of potential, and is still only 29 years old. He walks guys, with a career walks rate of 3.4 BB/9 (down to 2.6 this year), which is why he will fetch a lesser price. Jarren Duran has turned some heads lately. He was just in the minor league Future’s Game. But he’s a no power, batting average guy. Those guys don’t go much beyond bench pieces in the Majors. Think that type of prospect, rather than a power bat like Bobby Dalbec.

Wheeler is right handed, which has already shown dividends against the Yankees. He’s topped 100 MPH with his fastball this year. He would look great as the number four or five starter in this rotation, with possibilities for more.

Featured image via the New York Post

Red Sox, Yankees

The 2019 Red Sox: Shades of the summer of 2004

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Are you fed up and ready to bury the 2019 Red Sox? Are their bullpen implosions making you tear your hair out? The feeling around here hasn’t been this dire, with big expectations not being met, since that early to mid summer of 2004.

2004 Drama

Just before the nadir of that 2004 season it was the salad days of high drama for the Red Sox. Most noteworthy Nomar Garciaparra got traded, then July 24th 2004 happened. Remember that one? On the NESN DVD for the 2004 team you can see Kevin Millar talking about going 2-0 that day. Bill Mueller hit a walk-off homer against the great Mariano Rivera, after the Sox maybe or maybe not won one of the last true fights in the rivalry. What people don’t talk about is the aftermath of that game.

Storm clouds

From being 8.5 games behind the Yankees after that game, through August 6th of 2004, the Red Sox dropped to a season low 10.5 games behind the Yankees. All that momentum from winning two out of three in Fenway against the Yankees vanished. It took until August 16th of 2004 for the Red Sox to finally stay above the 10.5 game drop.

That was a dark time. I personally watched Red Sox stickers being torn off cars in the work parking lot during lunch breaks.

Right now references to the 2018 World Championship team are met with disdain and anger. 2018 World Championship gear? At best it’s in the closet. At worst it’s about to be burned in the upcoming Fourth of July celebrations in Red Sox Nation. This is a very familiar feeling.

More old is new again, including hope

From June 29th to July 1st of 2004 the Red Sox were on the road against the Yankees and got swept. Two of those games were bullpen meltdowns. One each saddled on Curt Leskanic and Mike Timlin. Derek Lowe took the other loss. Sound familiar? Put Eduardo Rodriguez in Derek Lowe’s place and it’s almost a carbon copy of what just happened.

At that time the Red Sox were 42-34. Right now the 2019 team is 44-40. This illustrates that the 2019 has dealt with a compressed schedule, putting even more pressure on the bullpen and team overall. Yes, the 2004 team was eight games over .500, this team is half that. But they’ve also played eight more games than their 2004 counterparts by the same date in the calendar.

That team had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. This team has Chris Sale and David Price. For every Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz there is J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. 2019 is seeing the breakout of Rafael Devers and continuing stardom of Xander Bogaerts. We’re seeing Christian Vazquez dominate in the batter’s box in ways we never imagined.

Curt Leskanic and Mike Myers were added in the summer of 2004. With Alex Cora and, more importantly, principal owner John Henry making noise about being disappointed with this team we’re sure to see some bullpen additions between now and July 31st.

Yes, the 2004 team never did close the gap on the Yankees. And the Wild Card is now a play in game in contrast to a five game series. This team has the talent and resources to still make a run, and will be favored in any play in game. Despite the panic there’s still plenty of time. 2004 is the road map.

Put Eovaldi In The Bullpen

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This Red Sox season has seemed like one long extended Alien Ant Farm, Michael Jackson “Smooth Criminal” mashup. No, no we are not ok. I said we are not ok. Didn’t you hear me? Oh, right, we’ve been hit. Nathan Eovaldi apparently is not walking through that door before late June or early July at the earliest.

It’s not just the starting rotation that’s been hurting, but the bullpen too. Ryan Brasier, as predicted, has regressed. This is putting a lot of strain on the most consistent member of Alex Cora‘s pen: Matt Barnes.

Lou’s point is a good one. Matt Barnes has too much on his shoulders. Imagine if he was given the job of Closer, the stability Craig Kimbrel insisted on. The only thing Lou’s missing is Barnes isn’t just the Closer, he’s the stopper, the only one Cora trusts this year with the most difficult part of the opposing lineup. So he’s the 7th, 8th and 9th inning guy.

Eovaldi To The Pen

Sometimes, as Pete Townshend told us, one and one don’t make two, they make one. Eovaldi’s well known injury history has bitten, but what if he doesn’t have to pitch 80 or 90 or 100 pitches? He has his big contract, he’s in the first year of a four year $67.5 Million deal. That needle that pushes into the competitive and fear centers of the brain isn’t there. He doesn’t need to be a sometimes competitive starter to make his dough. He’s made it. Couldn’t he be happy being a dominant Closer?

Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez. Those are your top four starters. Yes, the replacements in the rotation have been dreadful, but 10 blown saves on the year so far are more important that the fifth starter.

Playoff Eovaldi

Alex Cora used “The Rover” in the 2018 playoffs. He asked the starters to fill in the bullpen gaps. Eovaldi was the most successful. For his career he has a 4.21 ERA with a 1.352 WHIP. In the playoffs, as a Rover, against the Astros and the Dodgers, he went 9.1 innings, four hits, one walk, seven strikouts, one earned run. Some quick calculations get to a 0.99 ERA and 0.54 WHIP.

If Eovaldi can do that against the toughest competition in the league, he can do it on a Wednesday night in June, or any other day.

Make Nathan Eovaldi a $17 million a year Closer. Give Barnes another year as the setup man. Next year, when Rick Porcello goes elsewhere and Pablo Sandoval‘s $18 Million come off the books…Hold it right there. Sometimes the reasons that the Red Sox have the highest payroll in the league and can’t add any more are dumbfounding.

Regardless, right now, for this team, Eovaldi in the bullpen makes too much sense.

Curt Schilling Is The Equal Of John Smoltz & Belongs In The Hall Of Fame

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On January 22, 2019, the 2019 Baseball Hall Of Fame class announcement occured. Curt Schilling did not matriculate. From here it is obvious that Schilling is the equal of John Smoltz. While Smoltz sailed in on his first chance in 2015, Schilling is still waiting. Why is that?

Schilling & Smoltz

The bare bones tell the story.Here are Curt Schilling‘s and John Smoltz‘s career numbers:

Wins/Losses/Saves/Games/Starts/Innings/Strikeouts/WHIP/ERA/WAR

Schilling 216/146/22/569/467/3261/3116/1.137/3.46/79.6

Smoltz 213/155/154/723/481/3473/3084/1.176/3.33/69.1

Smoltz has more games and saves, and a lower ERA. Schilling has more strikeouts and walked less, which resulted in a lower WHIP. WAR is an attempt by the Sabermetric community to equate the value of players across eras, teams, ballparks, etc. Schilling outclasses Smoltz there.

Curt Schilling played for the Philadelphia Phillies for eight and a half years. Other than the first year or two of Schilling’s time with them, the Phillies were a doormat in the National League. By contrast, Smoltz was part of one of the greatest collection of starting pitchers of all time, the perennially contending Atlanta Braves of the 1990’s. Smoltz was blessed to have fellow Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux in the same rotation. Consequently, that team famously went to the MLB Postseason every year from 1991 to 1999, yet only won one World Series.

Postseason Dominance

These guys are Titans of the playoffs. This is because they both stepped up when the bright lights came on. Smoltz goes from a 3.33 career ERA and 1.176 WHIP, to a 2.67 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in the playoffs. Schilling goes from a career 3.46 ERA and 1.137 WHIP, to a 2.23 ERA and .968 WHIP. Smoltz has one career Complete Game in the postseason, Schilling has four. Smoltz is 15-4 in the postseason, Schilling 11-2.

John Smoltz’s most iconic performance is Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. Smoltz was out-dueled by fellow Hall of Famer Jack Morris in a 1-0 extra innings loss. Curt Schilling had his bloody sock in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees. That was on the road to the Red Sox first World Series win in 86 years in 2004. And Schilling’s teams did something Smoltz’s teams never could: beat the Yankees. That’s why Schilling has three World Series Championships to Smoltz’s one.

The Real Difference.

John Smoltz received 87.92% of the vote his first time on the ballot in 2015 (75% of the vote is needed to be elected to the baseball Hall of Fame by the writers). Meanwhile, Schilling’s percentages have wavered since his first time on the ballot in 2013: 38.2, 35.43, 45.62, 58.5, 50.3, 57.5, and 64.7 last year. This is a very strange pattern. Most of the time, players start low and gradually increase over time. Schilling’s numbers have wavered from year to year.

While John Smoltz is busy being an advocate for the shoulder safety of young kids, and announcing postseason games on all the big networks, Curt Schilling is seen as a social pariah. Schilling had a failed software company in Providence after taking tax breaks from Rhode Island, talked about voting Bush during the 2004 Presidential election while in Democrat country, and had some poor taste on social media.

In short, John Smoltz is seen as a choir boy, Schilling a bad seed.

The Hall of Fame is not the Hall of Good People

The Hall of Fame is a museum chronicling the history of baseball. For many years the baseball writers and players were drinking buddies. The writers celebrated the players. This was a result of the Black Sox scandal in 1919, and the concentrated effort by all involved to rehabilitate baseball’s image in American society.

In 1970, Jim Bouton‘s book Ball Four came out, and blew the lid off the narrative that baseball players are heroes. Bouton details rampant drinking, womanizing, ballplayers sneaking around looking through bathroom windows to see women showering, and PED use by Hall of Fame players. Since then, stories about cocaine use, gambling and PED use have disabused most of us from the notion that ballplayers are anything but fellow humans.

Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux’s meticulous Hall of Fame vote tracking sheet, we can see the details of the vote for 2019. Schilling received 64.7%, but only 41.2% on private ballots. In 2018, Schilling received 25.8% fewer votes on private verse public ballots. This year it was 23.5% less. Schilling still has a massive mountain to climb to reach the Hall of Fame.

Hopefully the writers will get off their high horses and see the truth: Curt Schilling belongs.

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Chris Sale Pitches A Gem

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While you were busy watching the Bruins in the Eastern Conference Finals, or the Celtics ping pong balls, Chris Sale was dealing. After striking out 9 in his first four innings, he proceeded to finish with 17 in seven. Not bad being shoulder to shoulder with Pedro Martinez in 2000.

A twisting ball in the corner evaded JD Martinez to end his no-hitter bid, but Sale bounced back with weak fly ball to left and 2 more strikeouts.

It didn’t hurt to have yet another moonshot from Michael Chavis to lift Sox fans spirits:

In his last inning he gave up a single to Trevor Story, then a Green Monster homer to Arenado. But those guys came in destroying left handed pitching all year.

Chris Sale rallied back to strikeout 17 in seven innings. That’s a new career high, so it’s safe to say he’s back on track.

Brandon Workman did his best to lose the game, allowing a two run homer to Charlie Blackmon in the 8th to put the Sox down 4-3 and deny Sale the win. Moreland knocked in Devers in the bottom of the 8th to tie the game, but Mark Reynolds of the Rockies singled in a run to give the Rockies a lead in the 11th and the Red Sox lost. But don’t let it besmirch a performance like this.

Red Sox – Rockies Series Preview

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When we last took an depth look at the Sox they were starting their road to recovery. On May 1st they had gone 8-4 in their last 12 to meet last year’s .667 winning percentage. Since then they’ve gone 8-2. Mash that together and it’s 16-6 since April 19th. That’s a .727 winning percentage for the math geeks out there. Can they keep it going against the 19-21 Rockies?

Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)

5/14 – Chris Sale vs Kyle Freeland (NESN)

5/15 – Eduardo Rodriguez vs German Marquez (NESN)

Notable Numbers

+27: That is the Red Sox run differential. On April 19th the Red Sox were 29th (of 30 teams) in baseball in run differential at -42. Now they’re 9th at +27. This team is clicking on all cylinders.

.217: This Rockies batting average on the road this year. That’s the fourth lowest in the league.

What To Watch For

Every Chris Sale start is notable, and this one is no different. The Rockies power bats (Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story) are right handed, and destroy left handed starters (.400 for Arenado, .314 for Story). With the cooler weather, and that kind of right handed power in the lineup, the Rockies will be a challenge. It’s another good test for Sale, despite the Rockies low road average. Sale has a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts. But every start is another step forward or back. A good start would be further encouragement that Sale is back.

Eduardo Rodriguez was celebrated a little too much for finally pitching seven innings in a start for the first time since September 23rd of 2017 his last time out. Will he pull it off in back to back starts? If he does, it could be a harbinger of a true step forward from the mercurial Rodriguez.

Expectations

The Rockies have a lot of potential, and their 10-10 road record is actually an achievement. But the Red Sox are red hot. The Rockies will show better than the reeling Mariners did in the last series, but the Sox should continue to dominate. Expect a brief two game sweep by the Sox before the schedule tightens up in the next couple of weeks.