If you’re a baseball fan, you know what hitting .400 means. It is an almost impossible feat, one that is unlikely to ever be repeated in the Majors ever again. It’s always interesting to watch guys like Cody Bellinger who get off to these hot starts. They keep the average above .400 into May and everyone starts to get excited. When realistically, sustaining that is unfathomable.
So with Jarren Duran hitting .403 through his first 45 games in high-A Salem, people are starting to notice.
Duran is a 7th rounder from the draft that happened less than 12 months ago. It has been incredible to watch him absolutely tear through A-ball in this past year. He’s had 464 at-bats since being drafted, he’s had hits in 174 of those. That’s a .375 average, which is crazy.
What’s even more crazy is his torrid start to the 2019 campaign. Obviously Duran is too good to still be in Salem. In all honesty, he should have already moved on from the team and up to Portland. For the time being he’s in Salem, and he is having fun.
Early returns appear to have this draft pick as a steal for Dombrowski and the Red Sox. His elevated age of 22 gives him the motivation to progress through the minors at a quicker rate. Even when he does make it to Portland this year, he’s still not getting to Boston until September of 2020 at the earliest. That makes him 24 when he makes his debut, no spring chicken.
Duran has never been much of a power hitter, and even with an OBP of .466, his OPS currently sits just over 1.000, due to the lack of power (two home runs in 204 plate appearances). This doesn’t make him any less valuable, but it would certainly make him a candidate to be a future leadoff hitter.
Jarren is a natural outfielder, but also has the ability to slide in and play second base. He’s mostly manned centerfield in Salem this season, and appears to be handling it pretty well, having yet to make an error.
The timing should work out very well, should Duran continue to progress the way he has. Jackie Bradley Jr. is under team control for a couple more seasons, and by the time they have to make a decision on JBJ, they should have a grasp on whether Duran can be his successor or not.
With Bradley Jr. struggling offensively the way he has this year, I think it’s in the Red Sox best interest to start pushing Duran as hard as he wants to go to see if they can really accelerate his progress through the minor league system.
For a team that has struggled to keep its draftees, and has a notably weak farm system, it’s nice to see that our front office is being smart about the draft picks after the first couple rounds, and finding guys that can be developed into major league players. Just like Jarren Duran is going to do.
Coming into this season the Red Sox bullpen was the number one question surrounding this team. While there has been a couple issues, for the most part those concerns have subsided. Matt Barnes has officially taken a step towards being elite. Ryan Brasier has settled nicely into his role. Marcus Walden has been a terrific surprise that nobody say coming, and that doesn’t appear to be stopping anytime soon. Which brings us to Brandon Workman.
Workman is the longest tenured pitcher on the roster. It really does feel like he’s been around forever. From his attempts to crack the rotation in 2013 and 2014, to missing 2015 and 2016 with injuries, we’ve truly seen the ups and downs of Brandon Workman.
But here we are, 2019, and Brandon Workman has quietly worked his way to the forefront of the discussion for best reliever in Boston. After notching his first career save on Sunday against Houston, his ERA dropped to 2.21, with a stellar WHIP of 0.93.
It seems as if every time Workman is called upon, he delivers. However this shouldn’t been seen as a complete surprise. The last two years Brandon has featured an ERA below 3.30, and has slowly been growing into the pitcher we see today.
The most astonishing number he has produced this year has to be his BAA. Hitters are hitting just .065 off of Workman this year. That is absolutely insane. 4 hits in roughly 20 innings. That, is crazy.
It’s crazy that the national media hasn’t picked up more on Workman’s success. Matt Barnes has finally caught the eye of most, and rightfully so due to his strikeout dominance. Marcus Walden has been the feel good story, and that has also garnered a lot of attention, especially locally. Workman however, continues to quietly do his job and then some.
Even if Workman is slightly due to regress, he is still going to be a weapon for Alex Cora this year. There’s no reason to believe that his ERA can’t stay under 3. As long as his walks get slightly more controlled, Brandon is setting the tone to be a true eighth inning guy.
Better yet, if he keeps pitching this way, his save Sunday against Houston won’t be his last.
It is officially May. The 2019 season is in full swing, and the Red Sox are finally starting to get back on track. This is the point in the season where statistics start to be reflective. Most players have played in enough games at this point that their stats are fairly depicting of the player they are. Michael Chavis, is showing us who he is.
As award races around the league begin to heat up, we take a look at one that seems as wide open as any: The American League Rookie of the Year. Everyone and their uncle had Vlad Jr. as the landslide favorite coming into this season, but now things are changing.
Guerrero Jr. has struggled to get the bat going through his first couple weeks in the majors. He no longer looks like the runaway candidate we all once thought he was. This isn’t to say Vlad is going to be bad. Or to say that he can’t win the award, because he certainly can. However, with his struggle to start the year, and the torrid pace of Michael Chavis, we absolutely have a race on our hands.
So without further ado, we’ll take a look at the strongest candidates for this award, and how our prized prospect sizes up against them.
Jimenez, like Vlad Jr., may not be off to the scorching hot start that most expected, but the season is still incredibly young. Although Eloy has looked lost at times, there has been flashes of greatness.
He is on the IL at the moment, which will definitely set him back, if the other candidates continue to get consistent playing time. Jimenez has the ability to rattle off a bunch of home runs in a quick span. So if he’s able to hit 30 bombs with an OPS in the .800s, he’ll have thrown his name into the hat for the AL ROY.
Relative to some of the other guys mentioned here, Lowe is fairly unknown. To the diehard baseball world, this kid has the tools to become a star. Not just an all-star, but a star. Heading into Tuesday, he leads all American League rookies with seven home runs and 20 RBIs. He provides value at multiple positions (he already has reps at first, second and in right field). And he has an OPS of .935, while leading all AL rookies in plate appearances.
Lowe might not be the name you know, but he is going to make sure you learn it soon, and that you won’t forget it. If he continues the pace he’s on, he is certainly on the path to being named Rookie of the Year.
The lone pitcher on this list, Turnbull is off to an incredible start that has come almost out of nowhere. He had a career ERA over six entering 2019, and even at the minor league level last year, he was simply average. However, his peripheral stats begged to differ. While his ERA last year was over six, his FIP was under three, which is insanely good. It shows he was set up for future success even though he wasn’t seeing it at the time.
Turnbull was incredibly overlooked coming into this season. Some projections had him in the bullpen, or not even making the team. Spencer’s K/BB ratio of almost three is solid and sustainable. He has an ERA of 2.31, and his K/9 is right around average for a good major league starter. And my goodness, take a look at the video above and his NASTY breaking ball.
Ah yes, here we are. The man, the myth, the legend: Vlad Jr. Like we discussed earlier, his start in the majors hasn’t been anything like he had imagined. He’s struggled to a .152 average over his first 33 plate appearances, and hasn’t had an extra base hit since the clutch 9th inning double in his debut.
He is going to be fine. You know that, I know that, he knows it, hell, his Dad even knows it. But this slow start certainly gives every other player in the Rookie of the Year race a fighting chance. What once looked like it would be a runaway for Vlad, is now going to be a 5-6 horse race heading into September.
Friendly Reminder,
After 33 PA in 2011, Mike Trout was 4-30 with 1 XBH, 3 BB, 8 K's.
After 34 PA in 2019, Vlad Jr. is 5-30 with 1 XBH, 4 BB, 8 K's.
Obviously, Guerrero Jr. is going to figure it out, and the big hits and the bombs will follow. However for now, the other rookies in the American League need to capitalize on the wide open race.
Our guy, Michael Chavis is leading the league in homers since his call-up. He leads all qualified AL rookies with an OPS over 1.100. Chavis also sits top 10 in OBP and WRC+ in all of baseball, of players with at least 50 at-bats. This is absolutely incredible to have a player on your team putting up these numbers. If it were Mookie or J.D. it would be awesome, but the fact that it’s Chavis is even better.
To be getting this kind of production from a rookie, from a guy who is playing out of position and wasn’t even supposed to be on the team this year, is even better. The magnitude of Chavis entering the lineup can’t be measured. It certainly is a good building block for his career, and his path to the 2019 American League Rookie of the Year is wide open.
When Michael Chavis stepped up to the plate Saturday in his major league debut against Jose Alvarado, an excitement came over Red Sox nation.
Rafael Devers was the last big Red Sox prospect to make his debut, and that came almost two years ago. Even before then, it had been a few years since the debuts of Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Then even further back in Clay Buchholz and Will Middlebrooks. The point being, we don’t usually get to see too many prospects come through the system and actually make the big leagues in Boston.
When you play in a win-now market like Boston, it doesn’t matter how highly the team regards you as a prospect. If you can be traded to make the team better now, you almost certainly will be. This is why this excitement is felt by Sox fans. We’re finally getting to see the fruits of our labor, after years of building towards it.
Sure Chavis has had his ups and down in the minor leagues since he was drafted in 2014. From injuries to suspensions, he’s seen all the peaks and valleys of being a pro baseball player. All these things are just elements that Michael has used to make himself stronger. He’s worked on becoming a more disciplined hitter at the plate. His Walk Percentage has gone up every single year since 2015, while his Strikeout Percentage has gone down early on in 2019.
It’s exciting to finally have a prospect we can hold onto. Usually these kids are just the next name involved in a blockbuster trade. Yet Chavis seems like he’s here to stay.
His Path to the Big Leagues
Not only is here to stay, but he may have found himself a starting gig. Before, the issue was the roadblock of Rafael Devers at third base. However, Chavis has moved his way over to second base. His defense has been above average thus far, and he looks like he could have a future at the position.
With Dustin Pedroia‘s knee flaring up again, he can’t be counted on for consistent at-bats at this point in his career. Eduardo Nunez also recently hit the IL. Even before that, he was struggling to the tune of a .159 batting average with just one walk. Brock Holt is an average defender and can hit the ball, but he doesn’t bring anything to the table as far as elevating the lineup goes.
Chavis does. This kid has the potential to hit 20-30 bombs a year in this league. His swing is so pure. He is so smart at the plate, which could also lead to him hitting close to .300 or higher. The ceiling for Chavis is sky high, and the opportunity has presented itself at the perfect time for both parties.
The Red Sox need some to fill in at second base, be it temporarily or long term. Chavis felt he was ready to take the next step, and the hole at second opened up. He’s swung the bat well so far in the big leagues. He’s had a couple of great swings and another good plate appearance that led to a walk.
#RedSox No. 1 prospect Michael Chavis absolutely torched this ball to straightaway center for his first #MLB hit.
If he continues to succeed at this level, it doesn’t matter when Pedroia, Nunez or Holt comes back. Chavis will have earned this job for now, and for the future.
Oh boy. I’m not even sure where to start. The first few weeks of the 2019 Red Sox season have been about as miserable as anyone could’ve imagined, maybe even worse. The offense and pitching can never seem to line up to perform in sync on the same nights. The Rays seem to be pulling further and further away in the division. But, I digress. Things have to get better, don’t they?
There is just no plausible way that things are this bad. Clearly the rotation has been a glaring issue, but lately the starts have been better (Rodriguez vs. Baltimore, Price vs. Baltimore, Eovaldi vs. NYY.) The bullpen has had some issues, most notably last night in the Bronx, but for the most part it has been better than expected. So that brings us to the shoddy offense, and to the one element that I can see truly jump starting this team.
Obviously this isn’t a hot take. The Red Sox need their best player to play better? Shocking, I know. However, it is deeper than just that. Mookie Betts is not only the best hitter in this lineup, but hitting where he does in the lineup, he is the table-setter.
A role long held by Dustin Pedroia, his job isn’t always to hit the ball 500 feet, but rather to get the ball rolling for the rest of the lineup. Mookie might be better than Pedey ever was, which is why he is so important to the success of this team.
The 2018 Red Sox were so successful because of their approach. Mookie would come up, leading off the first inning, and almost every single time, he would come out swinging. It was this offensive approach the led to him hitting .346 and being the American League’s Most Valuable Player. It was this offensive approach that led to him becoming one of the most feared pure hitters in baseball.
So where has it gone?
Mookie is in maybe the worst funk of his career. He looks absolutely lost at the plate, and just cannot seem to get himself going. Even when he’s been getting pitches to hit, vintage Mookie meatballs, he hasn’t connected.
Through his first 78 plate appearances he’s hitting just .212, a number that has never been associated with Betts at any point of his professional career.
It’s only a matter of time before he turns it around. He is way too good a hitter to not figure it out. He is getting the same pitches to hit as he did last year, he just has to be more careful on which he chooses to swing at.
Getting their top hitter back to premier form will be huge for Boston. As soon as we see Mookie’s average crawl back up towards .300 like it inevitably will, the team’s success shouldn’t be far behind.
Ah, the home opener. When our beloved Sox won the World Series back in October, nobody envisioned our ring ceremony taking place with a 3-8 team. Unfortunately, that was the case. And even more unfortunate, the defending champs fell to 3-9 the same day they got to celebrate their achievements from 2018.
Call it a World Series hangover, blame it on the road trip to start the season, point fingers at the rotation — everybody has an opinion. Nonetheless, this team is still just as good as last season and I’m truly not worried one bit. So with that being said, we’re going to take a look at some of the happier moments of the Red Sox 2019 home opener.
The Three Man Booth
I love this. I love this so much. Having Dennis Eckersley in the booth is always a treat. But to have the comforting voice of Jerry Remy also back, beside Eck, was just phenomenal. Whether you love or hate Dave O’Brien, the three of them certainly make for an entertaining trio. Tuesday was no exception. Jerry was back, looking as healthy as ever and sharp with his jokes and insight.
Having two former players who can provide so much knowledge and insights into pitching and hitting is so intriguing as a listener and as a fan. It’s even better that they happen to be hilarious. They’re constantly cracking jokes and taking jabs at each other, while also using some of the most wild baseball terms on Earth to keep the audience involved (see: Eck-isms).
They had various guests come in and out of the booth yesterday. Despite what was happening in the opening day game, it was so much fun to hear these three in the booth together. It creates for more entertainment and more stories that we want to hear. Having the three guys happy and healthy back in the Fenway booth was awesome.
Bringing Back all the Championship Teams
So there was no Craig Kimbrel, or Dave Roberts. However, there sure as hell were lots of other legends in the building today. The Red Sox always know how to put on an impressive show, no matter the occasion. Today was no exception. They had the fans on the Green Monster hold up different banners with the various championship years, while members of those teams patrolled in the field. Donning their Red Sox uniforms once again and carrying the hardware that proves what they did for this city.
There were so many familiar faces who made their return to Fenway today. It was fantastic to see Curt Schilling be greeted with so much love and applause. He’s faced a large amount of turmoil in his off the field career, and he has not attended most events the Red Sox have held. Seeing smaller-name guys that had big moments like Salty and Napoli was great too. Every single fan in the building knew who those guys were. They know why they were so important to that specific team’s success.
Just another reason to love the fans of Boston, it doesn’t matter the name on the player’s jersey or the size of his contract. If you come here and do your job to help us succeed, we will forever be in your debt. Today was a splendid reminder of all the people who helped bring the Red Sox success. It was also another chance for us to thank them all for what they’ve done for the city of Boston.
Manny in the Booth!
Oh, Manny. A player of so much discussion, both positive and negative, from the second he entered the city of Boston until the end of his tenure. Manny joined the Sox in 2002 and the rest is history. So to have him back in the building today, was just icing on the cake.
There’s always going to be so many big names when it comes to 21st century success for the Red Sox. Manny Ramirez should be one of the most important in fan’s memory. Not only was he a titan in the regular season, he’s also Major League Baseball’s all time postseason home run leader with 29. He had so many big hits for Boston. It really was fantastic to be able to hear him sit with the guys in the booth and reflect on everything.
Ramirez was often criticized by the media in Boston for being slightly immature. Or not always seeming 100% focused on the game. Despite this, he remained a fan favorite and always provided a likable personality. That shined ever so brightly in the booth today, as he was cracking up jokes and making light of himself the whole time. It was great.
Reflection On His Career
Manny also got deep on us, talking about all the ups and downs he faced in his life and career, especially after leaving Boston. He conceded that it was wrong of him to push himself out the door. Now as a grown man, he realized this decision came from a place of immaturity.
Even when O’Brien dug further, Manny stood by his sentiment. He reiterated that he loved Boston. That it was his favorite place and he wished he had never left. It truly was refreshing to hear this stuff from Ramirez. He’s worked so hard the last year or two to try and mend his reputation. Seeing him so reflective and so positive was second to nothing for me today.
His Hall of Fame Candidacy
He also touched on his Hall of Fame candidacy. Realizing that if Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens don’t get in, he likely won’t either, he still remains hopeful.
“We’re praying. But you know, I think in life, everybody makes mistakes. Nobody’s perfect, but I think with time, if it’s God’s will, we’re going to be there. If not, hey, we’re just happy that we got the opportunity to play the game that we love”, he stated Tuesday.
I’ve always been a huge advocate that Manny deserves to be in. Whether he gets in or not, he will always have a place in the heart of every Red Sox fan. Seeing him today, in a different light than usual, was very refreshing. For me, it’s the highlight of the season so far.
Alright, so things didn’t really go to plan. The Red Sox got behind the eight ball early in all four games. Every starter gave up five or more runs in Seattle, and the Sox offense couldn’t recover. However, this isn’t the end of the world. Not even close. Things didn’t start well for Boston, but heading to Oakland and then Arizona, I see this team getting themselves back on track.
Despite the nightmare-ish series in the Pacific Northwest, there was some good things I saw from the team.
The Bullpen
The strong suit was supposed to be the rotation, which was supposed to carry the bullpen. Through four games, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez & Rick Porcello have combined to give up 22 earned runs on 28 hits. This is not good. However, in those four games, the bullpen was the one carrying the load. The bullpen had to pitch 18 innings against Seattle, with the relievers posting a combined 2.50 ERA.
We got what we expected in the lone appearances from Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier, both posting scoreless, solid innings. The lefty, Brian Johnson, made three separate appearances and did great work eating up innings while only giving up a single run.
Tyler Thornburg wasn’t a complete disaster in his second appearance, tossing two strikeouts in a shutout inning. Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman were both fringe guys coming into the year, but both came out firing with scoreless outings of their own. The biggest surprise, might be Colten Brewer. The only addition to the Sox pen this offseason, Brewer pitched way better than expected in his two games. He posted four strikeouts and gave up just one hit while allowing zero runs, and his stuff looked good.
Obviously the sample size is extremely small for the bullpen, but with how everything else went in Seattle, this bullpen could’ve really blown up. There was an immense amount of pressure in all four games. They were charged with the task of keeping a game close that was blown open early, and they did just that.
Again, the sample size is certainly small for Rafael, but early returns on Devers are looking good. He looks slimmer, his swing looks much more crisp and his eye looks to be improving. While his weight was never an issue, he is noticeably thinner this spring. Devers looks to have realized that losing a few pounds will make playing third a little easier on himself, and it also looks to be helping with his approach at the plate.
Through four games, Devers has six hits in 17 at-bats (.353) including two walks for an OPS of .892. That OPS is slightly unattainable for Devers, but he absolutely can keep a pace similar to this up. There is no reason to believe Devers can’t hit close to .300 and OPS close to .850. He only has three strikeouts to his two walks in 19 plate appearances, looking to have added some restraint to his plate approach.
While he doesn’t have any old fashioned stats (0 home runs, 0 runs batted in), he certainly has provided us with something to be excited about. He appears ready to take the next step in his career, and may be on his way to hitting 40 doubles this year. Devers doesn’t seem as eager to swing, which is a good thing for how he is pitched. He has waited for a pitch he likes, and he’s driven it.
The defense does need to improve still, it appears there are still some holes there, but Devers will come around defensively. Until then, he seems to be putting it together offensively. The adjustments he made to his approach this offseason should continue to pay huge dividends for him and the team.
The Resiliency
Unfortunately, things haven’t started off like 2018 for the Red Sox. They lost three out of four and gave up a ton of runs in all four games. It was great though, to see the fight in this team. . Even in the worst of starts, the Red Sox lineup still had the heart to go out there and try and get the job done.
Obviously, they did only get the job done in the second game, but in both the third and fourth game the Sox mounted sizeable comebacks to put the pressure on the Mariners.
It started Friday night, in the second game. Nathan Eovadi’s first start of 2019 didn’t end well, and the Sox trailed 6-1 in the fifth inning. The team battled all the way back to win 7-6. If it weren’t for home runs J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez AND Mitch Moreland, the Sox are getting swept. Luckily, that’s not the case. The lineup was persistent, battled back, and rewarded the bullpen for their effort by posting a six run comeback. In the words of Brock Holt‘s mom, “Way to go Mitchy!”.
Now they didn’t win the third or fourth games, but they did show some resiliency in those games as well. They trailed 6-2 in the third game, but rallied in the ninth against the Mariners bullpen for three runs to put the pressure on Seattle. Then again yesterday, Rick Porcello put the team in a tough spot down 9-3 after the third inning. After the weekend the team had, the lineup and bullpen easily could’ve rolled over and died. They did not though. They fought and rallied and brought the game all the way back to a two run game, and had a chance to tie it with JBJ at the plate.
I’m not one for moral victories by any means, but seeing the fight in this Red Sox lineup to not give up on games this early in this season is impressive. For a team coming off a World Series championship they easily could have folded on all four games, not made any effort to come back and just slowly worked there way into the season. However, even though they lost three of four, they at least have some building blocks to begin to get this season in track.
One of the Red Sox stars who was facing free agency has now re-upped with the club. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello are still yet to commit their futures to the team, but for now, Chris Sale is staying with Boston. All offseason the discussion has been central to Mookie Betts and his extension. But when Chris Sale said “My phone is on”, in reference to extension talks, Dombrowski knew what he needed to get done.
In the couple months since Sale’s comments, the two sides were working hard on a new contract. Dombrowski gave up a lot to bring Chris Sale to Boston, and wasn’t going to let him just walk away. He was facing free agency at the end of this season, a luxury Sale has never experienced.
Entering 2013, Sale agreed to a deal to buy out his remaining arbitration years. He signed an incredibly team friendly deal of 5 years and 32 million in total. In three seasons with the Red Sox, he’ll have made roughly just 30 million with incentives. This is absolutely nothing relative to how good he’s been since he’s got here, and all the leadership he’s provided (especially in a certain World Series comeback).
Sale Gets Breaded Up:
Which brings us to his new deal, finally paying Chris Sale what he deserves. The deal was agreed upon between the two sides Friday afternoon. It’s a five year deal stretching from 2020, through 2024, with a value around 150 million total. This would make the average annual value about 30 million. Certainly not a bargain, but for one of the top 5 or 10 pitchers in the league, it’s a reasonable price tag.
Questions will be asked about the durability of Sale. Or if the fatigue he’s experienced in cohesion with arm issues will subdue. The hope for the Red Sox is that it does. The hope is that he can put these issues behind him. Also the hope is for him to use his off-speed pitches to help himself become more of a finesse pitcher. With a guy who has faced issues with falling off later in the season, this much money is slightly concerning.
He absolutely has earned every penny of it, and more. But for the Red Sox, this deal is certainly a risk. They now have close to 100 million tied up in four starting pitchers (Sale, Porcello, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi).
What this Means for Boston’s future
The hope is Sale keeping his form and maintaining consistent seasons with an ERA around 3. If this happens for the next few years, this contract will be completely justifiable. Could Sale have tested the open market and/or pushed for a contract with 35+ million a year? Sure he could’ve. He decided to stay faithful to the team that had faith in him, and I think he’s going to reward this team for locking him up. The deal allows the team to still be flexible enough to sign Mookie, and hopefully Xander, while still keeping a huge piece in Sale around.
Does he possibly have a Cy Young in his future? Find out!
In the World Series run of 2018, the Red Sox got away with using three catchers on their active roster. With only 25 spots, carrying a third catcher is a rarity in today’s game. Despite the team’s success, this roster style is unlikely to carry over into 2019. Alex Cora already said it’s likely that Boston trades one of the three before the season starts. This is a team that could really use that extra roster spot for an extra arm in the bullpen, so one of the catchers has to go. But who?
All three catchers have both pros and cons, it’s just about finding the right balance between the two that stay. Between Blake Swihart, Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, there is a mixture of power, contact and defense. Keeping two that can work cohesively is crucial for Dombrowski and the Red Sox, and it’s going to be very interesting to see what path they choose to go down.
Blake Swihart
The most promising of the three options is Blake Swihart. Blake is a former first rounder who has been thrown at various positions throughout the field, but has yet to stick. Now, he finds himself with a chance to become an everyday catcher again. Being the youngest of the three certainly works in the favor of Swihart, however, his time is running out. If he can’t carry his hot spring into the regular season or stay healthy, and improve on his .678 career OPS, he could see himself traded.
If the team really wants the most value from a trade of a catcher, this may be their best bet. Teams like the Royals and Athletics are still in need of a starting catcher, and could be tempted by the upside of the former top prospect.
Verdict: To me, I’m keeping Swihart and riding with him as my starter. He showed flashes of a solid bat down the stretch in 2018, and I’d at least want to take the chance on him as one of the two catchers on my team.
Christian Vazquez
Certainly the most perplexing of the three options. Vazquez seemed to take strides by hitting .290 in 2017, which is excellent for a major league catcher. He’s always been a good defensive catcher, with a fantastic knack for throwing out runners. However, in 2018 he regressed heavily. He signed a contract heading into the year with an average annual value of around 4.5 million, so expectations were raised after his successful 2017. The expectations weren’t met, as his average fell to .207 and his OPS fell almost 200 points.
At times his focus appeared to be elsewhere, and staying in shape was brought into question. As someone who loved Vazquez as a prospect, I think he can get past these things. I do believe he has a solid .270-.280 perennial average in him, and he could be a solid starter or a reliable backup.
Verdict: He has been ice cold in the spring, but Vazquez still offers plenty of upside for a Boston team yet to settle on a starting catcher. Being locked in with him through 2022 gives the Red Sox some incentive to be persistent with Vazquez. I think that earns him the second catcher spot on this team, at least to start the season.
Sandy Leon
One time a folk hero for Red Sox fans, Sandy Leon’s fall from grace has been quick and hard. In 2016 he hit .310 with an OPS over .840. These numbers came out of absolutely nowhere, as he hit .184 and .156 the two seasons prior. Everyone knew he wouldn’t replicate his 2016 again, as those numbers are just absurd for a catcher. Especially one who was always known as a defence-first backstop. The average fell to .225 in 2017, then under .180 last season.
I was very much an advocate to cut Sandy at many points throughout the season. However, the Sox’ front office felt differently. They felt him being the strongest defensive catcher of the three was worth holding onto, despite a miserable OPS slightly over .500. Leon is sneaky young, as he turns 30 later this week. He still holds upside strictly because of his defense. There is a glimmer of hope that stretch in the second half of 2016 wasn’t an anomaly.
Verdict: He doesn’t hold a ton of trade value due to his historically poor offense. He will appeal to many teams who are in search of a backup catcher. Or any team who may need to fill a hole that is left by injury. To me, you find a trade somewhere for Leon, likely K.C., and you take whatever you can get back for him.
Finally. It took until February the 19th, but Manny Machado has found his new home. Machado is now on his way to San Diego for the next decade. This has to be close to the best case scenario for Boston. The former Dodger was rumored to be between the Yankees, White Sox and Phillies. So with the Red Sox’ rival, a fellow AL competitor and a potential NL World Series representative all missing out on a generational player, the Sox have to be happy with how things culminated. If Machado had chosen a different path in free agency it could’ve really changed things. However, since he is about to be a Padre, let’s analyze how the other scenarios could have affected Boston and its future.
Scenario One: Machado picks the other Sox
Of the three candidates who were tied to Manny all winter, the White Sox posed the smallest threat. Their team isn’t quite ready to contend, with a lot of young pieces on the major league roster still trying to find their place in the league. If the White Sox could’ve have pulled Machado along with Bryce Harper, then they would be much closer to contention. However, even the current White Sox roster + Machado would still be unlikely to win their division. The battle of the Sox will occur seven times this year, which is about the yearly average that the two teams play. Not having to play Machado an extra seven games a year is definitely a small win for the Red Sox.
Scenario Two: Machado heads to the City of Brotherly Love
This scenario scares me as much as any. As is, the Phillies have a roster that is capable of doing damage deep into October. They have big bats, a solid bullpen, and an ace heading their rotation. If you add a star like Manny Machado to the lineup Philly already has, they’re likely the easy favorite to come out of the NL. Now this wouldn’t be the end of the world for Boston. You might remember them beating this Machado guy in the World Series once before. The Phillies really could’ve made a splash by signing Machado and/or Harper, and it would have vaulted them to the top of the NL and near the top of the league. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, ownership wasn’t willing to meet his demands. This doesn’t take the Phillies out of World Series contention by any means, but for a potential World Series matchup with the Phillies, this certainly makes life easier on Boston.
Scenario Three: Machado joins the Evil Empire
Okay, this scenario is the most scary. Yeah, the Sox handled Machado in the division before. Yes, they just beat him in the World Series. And yes, they just eliminated the Yankees in four games. However, this would have been very, very scary. With Manny joining a lineup of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez would be lethal. He would have the opportunity to play shortstop for the New York Yankees, something millions of kids grew up dreaming about. The Yankees were always rumored to be on Manny, and at times it felt like it was inevitable. However, the Yankees lost too much ground in the Machado sweepstakes in the last couple of weeks. The repercussions of Manny coming to New York are obvious. Roughly twenty times a season over the next decade we’d have to face him. Even though the Red Sox starters have pitched him well over his career, that is still a task that Boston is lucky they don’t have to face.
