Author Archives: @ltcmiked

About @ltcmiked

Expat-Masshole with an unhealthy obsession for the Boston Red Sox and a burning hatred for Buck Showalter and the entire city of Baltimore. Probably needs therapy. Stat geek with marginal math skills and anger management issues. I can't explain why, but my favorite player has always been Rick Burleson.

2018 Baseball HOF Ballot: The Pitchers

Leave a reply

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) released their Modern Era committee Hall of Fame ballot yesterday. Over the next few weeks Boston Sports Extra will make our case for who should and who shouldn’t, and who will and won’t, get elected.

The Process

In order to walk into Cooperstown as anything other than a paid visitor, a player must be on at least 75% of the ballots. Last year, there were 442 ballots cast, so a player must have been on 332 ballots to be inducted.

Voting for induction to baseball’s greatest shrine has no more integrity than voting for homecoming queen at your high school. Writers, who weren’t good enough athletes to actually play baseball, check the box next to the names of the players they like. It’s a popularity contest. Some writers are more objective than others. Some are comically biased.

Last year Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, and Edgar Renteria all received votes for the Hall of Fame. That’s not just ridiculous, it demonstrates that we should reassess who is allowed to vote. Every ballot should be made public.  Any writer so obviously out of step with reality should have their voting privileges suspended.

For now, BBWAA Hall voters can keep their ballots private. Those who do simply lack the intellectual integrity to defend their stances on certain players.

2018 Class of Pitchers

Embed from Getty Images

This year’s ballot includes fourteen pitchers. Trevor Hoffman, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Billy Wagner are all hold-overs from previous years. There are nine pitchers being considered for their first time: Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Jamie Moyer, Chris Carpenter, Livian Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kerry Wood, Jason Isringhausen, and Brad Lidge.

Here is how they stack up statistically.

  Pitching Stats
Rk Name YoB % of Ballots Yrs W L ERA ERA+ WHIP G GS SV IP H HR BB SO
1 Trevor Hoffman 3rd 74.00% 18 61 75 2.87 141 1.058 1035 0 601 1089 846 100 307 1133
2 Roger Clemens 6th 54.10% 24 354 184 3.12 143 1.173 709 707 0 4916 4185 363 1580 4672
3 Mike Mussina 5th 51.80% 18 270 153 3.68 123 1.192 537 536 0 3562 3460 376 785 2813
4 Curt Schilling 6th 45.00% 20 216 146 3.46 127 1.137 569 436 22 3261 2998 347 711 3116
5 Billy Wagner 3rd 10.20% 16 47 40 2.31 187 0.998 853 0 422 903 601 82 300 1196
6 Johan Santana 1st 12 139 78 3.2 136 1.132 360 284 1 2025 1726 220 567 1988
7 Carlos Zambrano 1st 12 132 91 3.66 120 1.331 354 302 0 1959 1709 161 898 1637
8 Jamie Moyer 1st 25 269 209 4.25 103 1.322 696 638 0 4074 4231 522 1155 2441
9 Chris Carpenter 1st 15 144 94 3.76 116 1.276 350 332 0 2219 2205 220 627 1697
10 Livan Hernandez 1st 17 178 177 4.44 95 1.44 519 474 1 3189 3525 362 1066 1976
11 Kevin Millwood 1st 16 169 152 4.11 106 1.328 451 443 0 2720 2770 296 843 2083
12 Kerry Wood 1st 14 86 75 3.67 117 1.267 446 178 63 1380 1083 148 666 1582
13 Jason Isringhausen 1st 16 51 55 3.64 115 1.328 724 52 300 1007 901 85 437 830
14 Brad Lidge 1st 11 26 32 3.54 122 1.291 603 1 225 603.1 492 57 287 799
AVERAGE HOF PITCHER 18 253 176 2.98     596 462 39 3801 3500 199 1052 2153

We will get into the details of a number of candidates in the coming weeks, but it is a safe bet that Hoffman will get the additional 1% he needs for induction. He will be the only pitcher elected this year.

Still Have a Shot

Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling will not only stay on the ballot next year, but should all eventually get elected. By the numbers, Rocket is a no brainer. But, as we’ll discuss later, his situation is more complicated than that.

Moose and Schill don’t have Clemens’ numbers, but they also don’t have his PED baggage. Mussina is safer bet than Schilling. His 270 wins are more in line with starting pitchers already in Cooperstown, and he hasn’t been nearly as controversial off the field. Much more on that later.

Good but Not Great

Of the newbies on the ballot, none of the starting pitchers are likely to make it, though some will stay above the 5% cut line for a couple of years. Moyer has more wins than the average Hall pitcher, but he has 209 loses and a career ERA almost a run and a half higher. Johan Santana was brilliant for a short time, but he wasn’t Pedro Martinez. He will eventually fall well short.

Embed from Getty Images

Similarly, none of the other four predominantly relief pitchers on the ballot will make it. This includes Kerry Wood, who due to injuries had his gifted career cut short. Billy Wagner is the most other Hall-worthy candidate, but when judged against Trevor Hoffman’s candidacy you can easily see how far he is below the standard.

JBJs San Fran suitors

Leave a reply

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the San Francisco Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Before everyone screams KUNG FOO PANDA! remember that wasn’t a trade. We signed him as a free agent. It was a self-inflicted wound.

That we’re still paying for until 2020.

Bradley is Eminently Tradeable

I simply do not understand the love affair with Bradley. Jackie Bradley Jr. is not Mookie Betts.  He is a fine baseball player, but he is not untradeable. He is Coco Crisp, not Jacoby Ellsbury. Bradley is an elite fielder and a great base runner, but he is a demonstrably average hitter (.239 BA / .726 OPS career).

Embed from Getty Images

Sure, in a childish way it’s cute when he, Benny, and Mookie dance after games.  It’d be better if he produced at the plate.  He is completely replaceable and should be available at the right price. The right price in a deal with the Giants is Buster Posey.

Posey

Posey (.308 BA /128 HR / 594 RBI / .850 OPS career) is under contract through 2022, with an average annual hit of $21.4M. He’ll be 35 when that deal is up. His resume is obscene: ROY, MVP, batting title champ, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger (4). Oh yeah, and three-time World Series champion.

Embed from Getty Images

Posey is the best catcher in the game. He shouldn’t be available. But he might be.

San Francisco was the worst-hitting team in baseball last year. Reports contend they want to be in the mix for Stanton to address their woeful lack of power (40 fewer HRs than the Sox if you can believe that!). The Giants problem, however, is that they are already committed to sixteen players at $170M next year and are even more afraid of the $197M luxury-tax threshold than the Sox.

They probably can’t add Stanton and his $28M (11-years, $310M remaining) contract without losing Posey. But, in trading Posey to Boston they can fix center field, upgrade the pop in their lineup, and stay under the luxury tax.

What it Would Take

As delusional as most fans are about their teams’ talent, nobody believes that the Sox could swap JBJ for Buster Posey. At least nobody with even a single active brain cell. It would cost much more.

Boston is deep at catcher. We’d need to lose one. Leon (29), Vazquez (27), and Swihart (26) are all younger than Posey. The ideal scenario would be JBJ, Sandy Leon, and a minor leaguer for Posey. JBJ and Leon are both under team-friendly control through 2021.

The problem is, Leon is not Christian Vazquez. Vazquez is younger and better both at the dish and behind it, and SF would likely demand him in any deal. Boston should avoid that at all costs, even if it means giving up better minor league talent in return.

The Ideal Scenario

The ideal scenario for the Sox is the JBJ-Leon for Posey deal for a number of reasons. First and foremost, it adds an elite veteran and quality bat to the lineup without giving up too much in return. Second, it keeps the better catcher on the roster, allowing for Posey’s eventual move to first base.

Like Minnesota’s Joe Mauer, the last AL catcher to win a batting title, Posey is going to have to move to first or DH to extend his career. He has more than a thousand MLB games on those knees.  Soon the wear and tear on the body will affect not only his availability but his productivity. And, unlike Jason Varitek, who was great managing the staff but a black hole in the lineup for years, Posey’s bat makes it a no-brainer. He will be more valuable to a team, and to his wallet, for longer by making the move sooner.

With Vazquez behind the dish and Posey at first, Boston can go all in on replacing Bradley with JD Martinez. Martinez is attainable for less than Stanton and, with Buster’s bat already an upgrade to Moreland, the lineup will be deeper and more productive than if they just add Stanton.

The Commish on the Ropes

Leave a reply

Among the most common qualities great leaders share are supreme competence in what they do and the ability to anticipate and deal with change. They are principled, and their values are consistent. Roger Goodell is none of these things.

I’ve spent my whole adult life surrounded by, working with, studying, and developing leaders. From infantry squad leaders to high ranking government officials and CEOs of Fortune 50 companies, I’ve seen some the best and the worst leaders in the country. The current commissioner of the NFL sits alone on the Iron Throne of incompetence.

False Accomplishments

Roger Goodell is a disgrace to the league. He is Portnoy’s clown, a caricature of a chief executive. Goodell’s defenders often cite the league’s financial standing as evidence of the commissioner’s accomplishments. They. Are. Not.

Goodell has received undue credit for the league’s financial strength over the past eleven years. Never mind the fact that the NFL was financially sound before he took over, environmental factors have made the NFL the juggernaut it is today. Goodells tenure (2006-present) coincided with the introduction and explosion of social media, live streaming, and a 300% increase in fantasy sports participation in North America alone.

Roger Goodell isn’t a business genius, he is Chauncey the Gardner, a dullard whose success has been coincidental.

Scandal Ridden Tenure

Rather than heaping unwarranted praise on the Commish for where the league is today, we should lay the blame at his feet as to where the league is heading tomorrow.

Truth in lending, I’ve hated Goodell long before he suspended Tom Brady for possibly being “generally aware” that an equipment manager may have done something that the league can’t prove and that science can disprove. This is a man who fines players for wearing the purple cleats to show support for domestic awareness, but is fine with players assaulting their wives and girlfriends off the field. Unless someone leaks the video to TMZ.

Goodell is a tone deaf, thin-skinned hypocrite. From his disgraceful handling of domestic abuse by players, to his inconsistent metering-out of punishment to players and owners, to his grandstanding about integrity of the game and player safety while stonewalling CTE investigations and settlements, abuse of office has been the defining characteristic of his tenure.

Where does Goodell choose to involve himself? Anthem protests. It’s clear that the NFL wants to appear to be the All-American game. You can’t attend one without some sort of display of fealty to the flag and a service member in uniform. But of course, that’s been largely fake too – after all the Department of Defense and the National Guard paid the NFL and its teams more than $12 million dollars for such patriotic displays between 2011 and 2015.

Face of the NFL

The list of great players who are also great people is nearly endless in the NFL. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, JJ Watt. These should be the faces of the NFL, but they’re not. Instead it’s Colin Kaepernick, Ndamukong Suh, Vontaze Burfict, and Prescott’s woman abusing teammate Ezekiel Elliott.

A work stoppage in 2011 that was resolved by Bob Kraft. Plummeting ratings. Hundreds of arrested players. Ndamukong Suh choking an opponent on the field – and not getting fined. This is Roger Goodell’s NFL. It’s past time for him to go.

Kingslayer

Jerry Jones is a fraud, but he may also be our only hope. He is not the hero we deserve, but he is the hero we need. Jones has been the commissioner’s greatest champion for years – a lap dog when Goodell was abusing his power to punish Tom Brady without evidence.

But, now that Jones’ newest woman abuser has been suspended for six games, suddenly Jerry is all about reeling in the powers of the commissioner. Suddenly, the arbitrary administration of suspensions is unjust. Suddenly, Jerry thinks we need a change of leadership.

Embed from Getty Images

Jerry cares about women. Just last week he proudly proclaimed that the Cowboys had a zero tolerance policy on domestic abuse. I’m sure Greg Hardy’s victim was glad to hear that.

Jones is, however, the kind of selfish, grudge-holding ass who might be able to mobilize 24 largely apathetic owners to block Goodell’s extension. That is doubtful, however, because this group of owners seem content printing their money and wrongly believe that Goodell is the reason they can.

Jerry’s palace coup probably won’t succeed. But, how it plays out will be telling for New England fans. Nobody has been on the receiving end of more horrible decisions and gross abuses of the powers of the commissioner than Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots.

Embed from Getty Images

Kraft famously dropped his appeal of the Goodell’s over the top and unjustified punishment after deflategate. In doing so, he infuriated most of his fan base. If he sides against Jones, Kraft will send a loud and clear message that he cares more for the community of billionaires that are the NFL owners than he does for his team and his fans.

Belichick breaks the “Patriot Way” for Brady

Leave a reply

I remember my dad swearing at the sight of Bobby Orr in a Blackhawks sweater. I remember Joe Montana in a Kansas City uniform, Jerry Rice in Oakland, and Emmitt Smith in Arizona. The idea of Tom Brady playing anywhere else is nauseating. I get it. As a fan, I’m glad he’s staying in New England.

That said, however, in trading Jimmy Garoppolo, Bill Belichick broke all the rules that have made New England the NFL’s premier franchise since 2001. Remorseless professionalism. Dispassionate player decisions.

I know this will make everyone lose their minds; but rather than laughing at 49ers GM John Lynch at the suggestion, the “Patriot Way” would have been to trade Brady.

The Foundations of Sustained Excellence

Since arriving in New England, Belichick has lived by the adage “buy low, sell high.” Nobody in professional sports has said good-bye to as many high performing veterans as the Hoodie. Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, Logan Mankins, Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Vince Wilfork. All beloved Patriots, all will have finished their careers elsewhere.

Embed from Getty Images

As a GM, Belichick has ripped emotion from the equation and relied on cold calculus when making player decisions, especially with veterans and especially at contract time. Rarely has he held on to someone only to watch that player decline. He gets rid of them early, gets maximum value in return, and invests in the future. He didn’t do that this time.

Jimmy G, We Hardly Knew Ye

We don’t yet know what Jimmy Garoppolo will be as a quarterback. We liked what glimpses we caught, but the sample size was limited. Belichick knows, and by all accounts he loved Garoppolo.

Is Garoppolo better than Brady? Of course not. Tom Brady is the greatest player in NFL history. Player, not just quarterback. Any argument about Rice, Brown, Taylor, or anyone else is just silly. The QB is the single most important position in all of sports. And nobody has ever done it better.

But that’s not what the Patriots should have asked before trading Jimmy. What they should have asked was: Would the Patriots be a better team in the future by trading Brady? and Will Garoppolo be a better QB for the Patriots than Brady in 3-5 years?

Garoppolo will likely struggle initially in San Francisco as he adjusts to a different system, new coaches, and unfamiliar players. None of that changes the fact that in New England he could have been a top 5 NFL QB.

40 Is Not the New 20

I don’t care how much avocado ice cream he eats or how comfy his magic pajamas are, Tom Brady is old and getting older. At some point soon his performance will decline. I’m not talking about Mad Max Kellerman’s wishful cliff theory. I’m talking about arm strength, ability to come back from hits, and ability physically perform at the same level he mentally performs.

Brady has indicated that he wants to play well into his forties. This is undoubtedly what forced the team’s hand with Garoppolo. Today, at 40, Brady remains the best QB in the NFL. But is a 43 or 45-year-old Tom Brady still among the league’s best behind center? Doubtful. Hell, behind this offensive line it’s a 50-50 proposition that he is even alive after week 10.

Gambling on Alex Guerrero

Jimmy Garoppolo could lead the NE Patriots. Sitting and learning behind Brady for the past three seasons, he was already the second best QB in the division. Under Jimmy the Pats were still winning the division for the foreseeable future.

Embed from Getty Images

By investing in Brady, the Patriots have put all their chips on snake oil salesman Alex Guerrero to keep their investment ahead of father time. That’s not calculated risk taking, that’s gambling. To date, Bill Belichick hasn’t gambled in player decisions.  We’ll see how that gamble pays off when the Patriots face off against the Broncos in Denver on Sunday.

Trading Tom Isn’t as Crazy as You Think

Everyone got a good chuckle at the John Lynch story this weekend. BB’s reported incredulous response to Lynch’s suggestion of trading Brady was, according to FOX Sports Jay Glazer, “Did you just ask if I’d trade the greatest quarterback of all time?” Yeah Bill, he did. And it was a legitimate question that you should have taken a minute to consider.

If Brady had been on the table, the return from SF or anyone else would have been almost incalculable. The Patriots could have addressed multiple roster shortcomings for years – including quality linemen on both sides of the ball. Led by Garoppolo, in whom NE management had complete trust, the Pats would have locked up the AFC East for another decade.

In trading the New England’s future franchise QB, Belichick got a second round pick and retained the better QB for the immediate future. He held serve. That’s it. The future remains very much in doubt.

Cubs Interested in Benintendi

Leave a reply

Don’t answer the phone.

It’s a foregone conclusion that Theo Epstein is the best GM is baseball. If you didn’t believe it by the time he delivered two World Series trophies in Boston, you have to accept it after what he’s done in Chicago. It’s like global warming, or the Tom Brady GOAT argument, it’s settled science.

When the best GM in baseball is interested in Andrew Benintendi, all you can do is check your caller ID and let it go straight to voice mail. Then delete it, throw away the sim card and change your number.

The total package

Of course Epstein wants Benintendi. He is the total package – great bat, great glove, above average speed and exceptional hair. In 151 games in his rookie campaign, Benny Biceps hit .271, 20 home runs, and 90 RBIs. He slugged .424, stole 20 bags and played above average defense in baseball’s most fickle left field.

He’s 23 years old. He is only going to get better, and his upside projection is Mookie Betts-level. He isn’t yet hitting for the same power he did in the minors (.546 ISO-P/K), but that will come. We saw it in Ellsbury, we’ll see it in Benny.

 

What’s important to Theo

Embed from Getty Images

In a word, value. In baseball terms, value is production over cost. The Cubs, despite their recent splurges in payroll, are not the Yankees or the Dodgers. Epstein understands this as well as he understands sabermetrics. Which is to say, better than basically everyone else in the game.

Epstein is a master of data analytics, recognizing potential and projecting talent better than anyone. He drafted Pedroia in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft, when everyone else in baseball projected him as little more than a utility player.

Theo also drafted Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and Ellsbury. In Benintendi’s case, Epstein sees high performance, unlimited potential, and manageable cost for years to come.

 

Options

The Cubs have more than enough talent to compensate Boston for Benintendi, but most of that talent isn’t going to be leaving the South Side. Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo would provide the kind of corner infield power Boston is lacking, and if either are on the table, the Sox should make a deal. However, neither will be on the table.

Acquiring Kris Bryant (3B) would force a position change with Devers, which given his yips in the field, might not be a terrible idea to consider. Bryant is arbitration eligible and under team control until 2022. At just 25-yrs old, the 2016 NL MVP is not only already better than Benintendi, he is better than Benny projects. He isn’t going anywhere.

Anthony Rizzo (1B) has four years and $47M remaining on his current seven-year deal. At 28, he is at the precipice of his baseball prime – and he is already an elite talent. Rizzo (.273 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI this year) has a career ISO-P/K of .304. He won a Platinum Glove in 2016, and finished this year with the highest fielding percentage of all NL first basemen.

If Chicago were strapped for cash or bereft of prospects, they could move Rizzo. They’re neither, so they won’t. The most likely marquee player on the table, is left fielder Kyle Schwarber. At 24, Schwarber (.211 BA, 30 HR, 59 RBI this year) was a key contributor to Chicago’s 2016 Championship run.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Just Say No

Schwarber alone wouldn’t be enough. Benintendi is to Schwarber, what Bryant and Rizzo are to Benny – better now, and way better three years from now. At 6’0”/235lbs, Schwarber is also not long for the outfield. He has “future designated hitter” written all over him. There is no value in a Benintendi for Schwarber deal, without much more added in by Chicago.

State of the Sox Pitching Staff

Leave a reply

Pitching wins championships. It’s that simple. Of course you need hitting, but it pales in comparison to the importance of a strong pitching staff. As we explained (here) and (here) and (here), we at Boston Sports Extra consider pitching kind of important. We’re smart. You should listen to us.

Consider the 2017 Red Sox; punchless at the plate, abysmal on the bases, and among the worst fielding teams in the league. Yet they still won 93 games and the division. That’s only possible because of great pitching. To take the next step and hopefully another World Series, Boston not only needs to add power to the lineup, they need to at least maintain their staff production.

The Rotation

Looking at the next year’s rotation starts with analyzing Boston’s existing contracts. In addition to the realization that Porcello basically makes double Sale’s salary, what stands out is that the Sox are in pretty good shape for starting pitching.

Name Age Contract Status 2017 2018 2019 2020
David Price 31 7 yrs/$217M $30M $30M $31M (O/O) $32M
Rick Porcello 28 4 yrs/$82.5M $20.12M $21.1M $21.1M FA
Chris Sale 28 5 yrs/$32.5M $12M $12.5M (O) $13.5M (O) FA
Drew Pomeranz 28 1 yr/$4.45M $4.45M Arb FA
Doug Fister 33 1 yr/$1.75M $1.75M FA
Steven Wright 32 1 yr/$594k $593.5k Arb Arb Arb
Eduardo Rodriguez 24 1 yr/$585k $584.5k Pre-Arb Arb Arb

It goes without saying that ownership will pick up Sale’s $12.5M team option for 2018.  Barring injury, they’ll pick up the $13.5M option for 2019 next year as well.  Price, though overpaid for what he’s delivered to date, is locked through 2018 at $30M.  He can opt out at the end of next season.

With Sale, Price, and Porcello in the fold, Boston has two starters eligible for arbitration. Teams must submit their offers to arbitration-eligible players by 12 December. If they don’t reach an agreement by 17 January, it goes to the arbitrator.

Embed from Getty Images

Drew Pomeranz is going to get paid, either signed long-term before the deadline or short-term through the arbitrator. Ownership cannot let him walk. At just 28-years old, Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32 ERA last year) was as important to Boston’s success last year as the flashier Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA). MLBTradeRumors.com released their normally accurate arbitration estimates last week (available here) and report that Drew is likely to cost $9.1M. Totally worth it.

Steven Wright and E-Rod are different stories. Both are coming off injuries and neither are guaranteed to be ready by spring training. Boston needs rotation depth, and will have to decide if the cost-benefit analysis makes sense in both their cases. At arbitration, Wright is likely to fetch $1.2M and E-Rod $2.7M (MLBTradeRumors.com). That is not chump change if they’re not healthy enough to contribute.

With Wright and E-Rod’s questionable status, don’t be surprise if we see Fister back on the mound in a Sox uniform. He certainly pitched well enough to be a number five starter in a pinch, at least at times. He also pitched poorly enough that he won’t cost a brick.

Free Agents

This year’s prize free-agent starters are Darvish (31 years old, 10-12 last year, 3.86 ERA), Arrieta (31, 14-10, 3.53), and Lance Lynn (30, 11-8, 3.43). Don’t even think about it. Boston will already have $72.6M locked up in the rotation if they resign Pomeranz for the market estimate.

Embed from Getty Images

Sox ownership has said time and again that they will not try to compete with the Yankees in terms of payroll. They require staff depth, not top-of-the-rotation starters, have too many line-up needs to dedicate another $15-25M to another starting pitcher. They are probably going to sit this dance out.

Few Crops on the Farm

Boston’s talent pipeline is pretty thin for starting pitchers. Last year’s first-round pick and potential future staff ace Jason Groome (LHP), is years away. And, while he has great stuff and projects high, he was injured in his first start (lat) and shut down until mid-June.  The team shut him down for the year in late August with a forearm injury.

Jaleen Beeks (LHP, PawSox) is probably the most big-league-ready prospect. Beeks has four good pitches but also command issues (3.4 BBs per 9-IPs).  He projects more as a relief pitcher than starter.

Mike Shawaryn (RHP, Salem) shows promise as an innings eater, but not top-of-the-rotation starter. Last year’s fifth round pick, he has a devastating slider and racks up K’s by the bushel despite an inconsistent fastball that tops out in the mid-90s.

2017 Red Sox Report Card

Leave a reply

We shouldn’t be upset that the 2017 Red Sox season is over. Certainly it would have been nice to get past Houston and into the ALCS. We might even hope to hit a little lightning in a bottle, beat the Tribe and make it to the World Series.

As any smart baseball observer knew long ago, this wasn’t a great Boston team (see here).   It was constructed poorly, managed poorly, and it performed poorly against baseballs best teams. Frankly, if you look at it through the commonly accepted five-tools of baseball, the 2017 Sox actually over achieved.

Tool 1: Hitting For Average (C)

After posting a league-leading team batting average of .282 last year, the Sox dropped to the middle of the pack this year at .258. Losing Ortiz (.315 in 2016) hurt. What hurt more was the precipitous drop from Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, and Ramirez – each batted at least 21 points below their 2016 average. Most troubling, as something we pointed out here, was Mookie’s fall from .318 last season to .264 this year.

Tool 2: Hitting For Power (F)

Embed from Getty Images

This year’s squad had all the pop of a softball team after finishing off the keg. In 2016 the Sox lead all 30 MLB teams in Slugging Percentage at .461. This year they finished 26th with a team slugging percentage of .407. For perspective, the Phillies slugged .409. They won 66 games.

The Sox hit only 168 home runs, good for 27th in the league. Papi’s absence again loomed large – 38 HRs and 127 RBIs in 2016. Again, more important was the decline in everyone else’s performance. Hanley hit seven fewer bombs and 49 fewer RBIs. Forty-nine.

Tool 3: Base Running (D)

Do we really even need to discuss this? The Sox were horrible on the base paths this year. Every night there was a new train wreck at home plate as the slowest players on the team were gunned down by five steps. Or, someone made a mistake and was doubled-up on what should have only been a routine fielder’s choice.

The only reason Base Running isn’t an “F” for the year is that with their team speed, the Sox managed 106 stolen bases (6th in MLB) and were caught only 31 times (13th). That’s what is so frustrating about this squad. With their speed, they should have been great running the bases.

Embed from Getty Images

Skipper John Farrell dismissed the Sox ineptitude on the bases, insisting the obscene number of outs was the result of an aggressive philosophy. That might be partly true, but the decision to send someone like Sandy Leon or Mitch Moreland home on a shallow fly isn’t being “aggressive” it’s being stupid. They were stupid a lot this year.

Tool 4: Throwing/Pitching (B+)

For all the Pedro-like excitement for Chris Sale’s starts this season, he really was pretty awful when we needed him most. As discussed previously (here), in the second half of the year he dominated the worst teams and was dominated by the best. He finished with career highs in both innings (214.1) and K’s (308) – and that might have been part of the problem. He looked tired down the stretch and gave up a ton of home runs.

As good as Sale was at times, Porcello was equally bad. Leading the league in losses (17), runs (125), and home runs allowed (38), Pretty Ricky was ugly in 2017. But, besides Sale and Porcello, team pitching was essentially the same this year as last year. This year’s staff managed a nearly identical WHIP and BAA (Batting Average Against) as last year in 43 more innings pitched. Given how poorly the team hit this year, the pitching deserves the bulk of the credit for winning the division.

Tool 5: Fielding (D)

Can we get a list of volunteers to hit grounders to the infield this off season? After committing only 75 errors in 2016 (3rd best in baseball), this year’s squad committed 107 (7th worst).

Devers adjustment at third base was certainly a factor. He committed 14 errors in 58 games. He’s young, he’ll improve. Bogaerts led the team with 17 errors in 2017, five more than in 2016 (in 10 fewer chances). Just like at the plate, he’s regressing in the field.

Final Grade (C)

My kids like to tell me that a “C” on their report card is “average”… as if that’s acceptable. It is not. Certainly not for a team with a $200M payroll. It is revealing that a team as demonstrably average as the 2017 Red Sox can, not only make the playoffs, but win the division. It should make everyone understand how important pitching is to success.

Where to Go From Here

We’ve said for months that the 2017 Red Sox were a deeply flawed team. They have talent, but not enough. They lack power and they commit too many unforced errors in the field and on the bases. That’s a coaching issue.

Embed from Getty Images

Chili Davis is simply not getting it done as a hitting coach. It’s easy to look good with David Ortiz compensating for team power numbers, but the regression of the core members of this franchise’s future can’t continue.

Base coaches Butterfield (3B) and Amaro (1B) need to be held responsible for the ridiculous performance on the base paths. No team with as much speed and experience as the Sox should look so clueless every night.

It is hard to justify firing a manager who just won consecutive division titles and won a World Series only four years ago, but changes must be made in the coaching staff.

 

The Enemy of My Enemy

Leave a reply

I must have missed that tweet. You know, the one where the @Yankees finally conceded that they were only a Wild Card team this season. Their public relations team must have just forgotten. I’m sure they were exhausted after pushing out hundreds of updates on how they were closing in on the division for the past two weeks.

Let’s Go Tribe

At the risk of sounding like an AL East snob, I don’t see any scenario in which the Twins beat the Yankees. Obviously, I hope that they do – nothing is quite as refreshing as bathing in the tears of your enemy. But, Severino is pitching great and rookie strike-out king Aaron Judge will probably bunt for a couple of home runs in their joke ballpark.

Embed from Getty Images

The Wild Card remains important, however, because it throws off NY’s rotation heading into their series with Cleveland on Thursday. Unless Girardi does something unusual and goes with Gray, Tanka, or Sabathia against Minnesota to save Severino for the ALDS opener, NY likely won’t throw their ace until game three. Even then, that would be on only four days’ rest. They could, according to Ken Davidoff of the NY Post, even slide him further to game four depending on the matchup.

React to contact

If the Tribe takes the first two in Cleveland, which they certainly could, the chances are very good that New York goes with Severino on four days rest in the potential elimination game. Sabathia would probably follow in game four.

If NY-CLE split the first two, I would expect Sabathia to pitch game three to give Severino the extra day off. Sabathia may be physically incapable of fielding his position or saying no to a second plate at the buffet, but he is still a big game pitcher and a solid game-three starter.

Embed from Getty Images

Where Cleveland is vulnerable

Francona is in a tough spot – which may sound strange considering he just won 102 games and seemed to clinch the playoffs in early May. The top of his rotation is great – better than NYs. But once you get past Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer, where are you? There’s a reason he’s supposedly considering a three-man rotation in the playoffs.

Embed from Getty Images

New York has more depth in their rotation. Severino is exceptional – perhaps as good as Kluber. Neither Gray, Tanaka, nor Sabathia are as good as Carrasco – but the three of them are better than the balance of Cleveland’s arms.

What this means is that Cleveland needs to wrap up this series fast. If this goes five games, the Tribe would have thrown Kluber and Carrasco twice. This would have Bauer leading off the ALCS and put Kluber at game two, and potentially six.

Play for Today, Plan for Tomorrow

Cleveland could get through Houston or Boston in the ALCS with that rotation. But what will the staff look like in the World Series. How many extra innings will the Tribe’s three best arms have thrown before they even get there?

In 2004 we learned that Tito is the ultimate play for today manager. He doesn’t look past games, let alone series. At least not publically. But, he better. He will need Kluber and Carrasco at least twice in the ALCS and World Series if he gets there. He better deliver the knock-out blow to NY early.

 

 

It’s Not About Veterans

Leave a reply

Spaceballs

This weekend, the world watched millionaire players and billionaire owners protest the national anthem, speak out against the President, or hide in the locker room. Monday, we saw a decorated Army Ranger who felt compelled to apologize for standing to honor his nation. WTF is wrong with this country?

In the span of a week we have jumped at ludicrous speed from a few guys kneeling to protest social injustice to a full-blown culture war.  The internet flooded with videos of self-righteous fans burning their season tickets and team jerseys. Patriots’ fans booed their team at home – not like in the 70s and 80s when the team deserved it.  Last week, they booed before kickoff.

It’s not about Kaepernick

None of this is new. This didn’t start President Trump tweeting something stupid and divisive. It didn’t start with a bad second-string quarterback in San Francisco taking a knee last year. Anthem protests have been around of years.

Most readers are too young to remember when US Track and Field Olympians gave a Black Power salute during the anthem after receiving their medals in 1968. Some may recall the NBA suspending Denver Nuggets guard Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf in 1996 for refusing to stand for the anthem.

Embed from Getty Images

Tommie Smith and John Carlo’s iconic protest came at the height of the civil rights movement and in the wake of Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination.  The difference between Rauf and Kaepernick is that Rauf was still a legitimate player in the NBA at the time. He was run out of Denver at the end of that season and was out of the NBA entirely shortly thereafter. Don’t forget – Kaepernick voided his own contract and chose to leave SF at the end of last season.

Is his activism a factor in why he’s still unemployed? Almost certainly. Is it the reason? In NFL terms, it’s less probable than not. Back-up QBs should be inexpensive and neither be seen nor heard. Everyone recognizes that that isn’t Kaepernick.

Enough with the fake outrage

I have attended hundreds of professional sporting events in more than 20 different cities. I have overpaid for nachos and beer in 16 different MLB parks alone.  Rarely have I been impressed with how fans honor America while the song plays.

Across the country, in all major sports, fans ignore the anthem as they buy beer, make their way to their seats, talk with friends, or update social media. They keep their hats on, video the singer, and take selfies. Other than the ballpark at Arlington, I can’t remember attending a sporting event that suspended concession sales during the anthem. God Bless Texas.

I graduated from that same little trade school on the Hudson as Steelers offensive lineman Alejandro Villanueva. I served more than 23 years in the Army and deployed five times. I’ve had friends come home in caskets under the flag. It means something to me. I will always stand in silence for the anthem and will smack my kids if they so much as sneeze before it’s finished.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Symbols and Rights

This fake controversy isn’t about disrespecting Veterans. The soldiers and friends I and others lost in the service to this country represented diversity racially and ideologically as any NFL locker room. They didn’t die for the flag or the anthem. They served, sacrificed, and died for their fellow Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines.

The flag and the anthem are not totems to bow down to, but rather symbols of the ideals of this country. Those include the idea that all men are created equal, have the inalienable right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, and to free speech. These represent the very things for which people are protesting. You are not a good American if you claim to love our nation’s symbols but not the exercise of someone’s right’s because you disagree with their message.

I am offended by the jerk who keeps his hat on, usually backwards, and won’t shut up during the anthem. That’s disrespectful. Players using the opportunity to make a peaceful statement about social injustice – whether I agree with them or not – doesn’t bother me at all. For 241 years Veterans have fought for them to have that right, it would be hypocritical for us to ask them not to exercise it.

Easy Solution

Americans used to believe in the market place of ideas – that everyone could exercise their right to free speech, that good arguments would win and bad ones would lose. Now, as a nation, we seem to have lost the intellectual courage to tolerate diverse opinions.  We are so threatened by people who don’t believe exactly like us that we demand they be silenced. The left has done that on college campuses and the right is doing it now in NFL stadiums.

Embed from Getty Images

We have two simple solutions to our current national distraction. First, instead of attacking these players we could seek to emulate them. Every team in the NFL has players from every race, religion, and political ideology.  Yet, somehow, they’re not killing one another in the locker room.  Players like Devon McCourty, Duron Harmon, and others have protested during the nation anthem for more than a year.  Kraft, Belichick, and Brady all have relationships with President Trump.  And yet, somehow, these two different groups have good relationships with one another. How shockingly adult of them.

Second, we could just stop playing the national anthem at sporting events. Don’t pretend that it mattered to you before people started kneeling. It probably didn’t.

Bullish on the ‘pen

Leave a reply

Grudging Respect to the Skipper

Let’s be clear. Despite this, I do not think much of John Farrell as a manager. That said, however, he was a great pitching coach during Terry Francona’s tenure as skipper. It is not a coincidence that the Red Sox have one of the best rotations and have the best bullpen in baseball. Tough to argue with a 15-3 record in extra-inning games or find fault in the skipper who got them there.

Loaded for October

As great as we may feel about sweeping unlikeable Baltimore and clinching a playoff berth, the road ahead is going to be difficult. October baseball is different. There are no more Toronto’s, Oakland’s or Cincinnati’s. Everyone can play. Every line up is deep. Every rotation is tough. But, not every bullpen is great. Ours is, as Scott Frizzell expertly laid out yesterday (here).

Embed from Getty Images

Sure, every one of the locked or likely AL playoff teams has a lights-out closer.  Giles (HOU), Kintzler (MIN), Allen (CLE), and, despite his struggles against Boston, Chapman (NYY) are all excellent. And they all have a decent set-up guys. But, in October starting pitchers face the deepest line-ups in the league and tend to have high pitch counts earlier. It’s not enough to have an eighth inning guy to bridge to your closer. You need a seventh inning stud. And often more.

With apologies to Velazquez, Maddox, Smith, and Elias who have all contributed but just barely, the nine core members of the Sox bullpen are the best in the AL. Kimbrel leads all AL playoff closers with 33 saves, with Houston’s Giles right behind him at 32.

Getting the ball to our ginger Travelocity gnome is a squad who’ve pitched over 350 innings, surrendered only 132 earned runs, struck out 345, and have a WHIP of 1.18. For perspective, Drew Pomeranz, 16-5 on the season, has a WHIP of 1.34. So, basically Boston’s bullpen is better than their number two starter. Not. Too. Shabby.

The Best We’ve Had

Boston’s current bullpen is the best we’ve had in decades. With the possible exception of ’07 Papelbon, nobody in their right mind would trade Kimbrell for any closer in recent Red Sox history. And, as much as the Timlin-Embree combination provided the ’04 world champions, the sheer depth of this year’s squad is unmatched.

None of this is to say that their success will continue in the post season. October baseball is different. Guys who were lights out in the regular season often fade as the innings pile up and as the teams get tougher. Hideki Okajima springs to mind.

In 2007, Oki had thrown 69 regular season innings – more than any of our current relievers – and registered a 2.22 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. He was the definition of shut-down. Yet, he threw 11 post-season innings, including 3.2 in the World Series, where his numbers skyrocketed (7.36 ERA).

As this season winds down, it is critical that Farrell manage innings for each of his arms. He should consider throwing Price as often as medically possible – to both get him in shape for important innings in October, and to protect the guys who are tired.