Author Archives: @richevans

About @richevans

A British Red Sox fan who plays a little over in the UK. Been to Fenway in October for a tour - what a cathedral - history just drips from the place

The Road to the World Series Not Paved with Gold

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The Red Sox are in the playoffs with a magic number of one to secure the AL East title. The journey to the World Series starts now.

‘Stros and the Tribe Up Next

There is a good chance that will happen, but then the fun begins. With the Astros and the Indians still competing for home field advantage, the Red Sox have a mountain to climb.  Both possible opponents have been among the best and most consistent teams of 2017.  The Indians have won 100 games, the Astros 99.  The Astros lead the MLB in batting average, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS, runs, hits and doubles. Offensively, they are a machine with a line up deeper than the Atlantic.  While their pitching is not as strong, the team ERA is 4.13, they strike out a lot of batters and are above average in just about every way.  The also have former CY Young winners in Keuchal and Verlander who have sampled the play offs before.

The Indians also play on the back of that record-breaking winning streak with high confidence. Offensively not as strong as the Astros, but The Indians remain in the top five in most categories.  Their pitching is their strong card. They have the best team ERA, most strikeouts, most complete games, a second best WHIP of 1.17 and they have Terry Francona, a manager who has won and lost in the World Series and understands how to manage his pitching staff in the post season cauldron.

The Up and Down Sox

At the moment, the Red Sox are frustratingly inconsistent. They have the talent but can’t seem to put it all together over a sustained period.  There is no doubt the Red Sox are down on power at the plate. They rank just 27th in home runs with just a mere 167 this season.  The team slugging percentage is just .408, down in 25th spot with an OPS of just .738.

It is brighter on the defensive side. The Red Sox have the fourth-best ERA of 3.71, the third most strikeouts a WHIP of 1.25 and Chris Sale, who on his day is one of the top-three pitchers in the whole MLB.  The problem is that the Red Sox have pitched the most innings of any team, mainly because run support had often been non-existent. Chris Sale has pitched more innings than anyone and it’s beginning to show.  That said, there has been a recent and alarming tendency by the pitching staff to give up runs in the first inning. With the current, offensive state of play its game over.

We know the Indians will have a game plan for the playoffs. We saw it last year and no doubt it will happen again.  The Astros will let their bats do the talking and will just try and outscore everyone. Any off day from a Red Sox pitcher will be punished.

If the Red Sox are to make it to the World Series, it is likely they will have to beat both the Indians and the Astros. To do that they are going to have to shut down the Astros’ offense and overcome Kluber, Miller and co.

That’s a tough ask.

Can Fister be Part of World Series Glory?

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Doug Fister threw a complete, one-hit game against the Indians as the Red Sox beat the 2016 AL champions. To say he has come in for a lot of criticism since his move to Fenway is an understatement.

Its also true to say that Fister has been excellent and awful from start to start. His recent stellar performance followed a nightmare against the Indians when he gave up five runs over 4.1 innings.

Filling In

Fister fills in for the injured David Price, taking the fifth starter slot behind Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez. Fister remains an important part of the push for the post season with Price sidelined.

Fister is currently 3-6 with an ERA of 4.78. Porcello occupies the same bracket, although last year’s Cy Young winner has shown signs of improvement of late. The front office has a lot of faith in Fister, even if fans don’t. He will be around for the playoffs.

The Red Sox should make the playoffs if Sale and Co. continue to perform, and the offense provides run support. Getting to the play offs is one thing, winning the post season is another. Can the pitching staff as a whole get it done in the play offs?

Post Season Pitching

The Royals and the Indians proved how a different way of pitching can succeed in the post season. Francona showed in 2016 that the traditional divisions between starters and relievers get blurred. Starters, like Kluber, and relievers like Miller, had to get used to a different regime during October.

That regime was designed to ensure pitchers could pitch at their best in Game Seven of the World Series showdown. The Royals had a clear plan in 2015. Get a lead by the seventh and then call for the lights-out bullpen.

It’s not clear whether Farrell has a clear plan but he needs one and the right personnel to make it work. As we stand, it’s the management of bullpen that is shaky not the starters.

If Price returns, pitches well and the rest of the rotation is healthy, expect Fister to join the bullpen. Fister could yet prove to be the unexpected treasure for the Red Sox.

Where are the Red Sox Now?

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There are of course over 20 games to go in the regular season, the Red Sox lead the AL East by 4.5 games.

They have been inconsistent to say the least but are finally showing signs of stringing victories together. The current streak stands at  8-2 and with a lot of home games left for them to make the playoffs.

Offensively, the team’s performance lands them in the top 10 of most categories apart from power. They rank 5th best BA (.263), 10th in RBI (537), 8th in runs (573),  6th  in OPB (.334) and 9th in doubles (216). In these categories they compare favorably with all the pace setters such as the Nationals, the Dodgers and the Astros.

Some listless veteran bats

The Red Sox power rating has dropped horribly from last year. Currently they have just 124 HRs, SLG of .411 and just 13 triples. Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez lead the way with 18.

Xander Bogaerts’ production badly disappoints compared to last year. His current six home runs compare badly with the 21 he hit in 2016. Mookie Betts is not having the MVP-style-year he had last year, down across all batting stats. Jackie Bradley Jr. also lags in  performance at the plate, despite being the best center fielder around.

Big bats emerge

New recruit Mitch Moreland may have had a sticky patch but has earned the nickname Mitchy Two Bags for good reason with 26 doubles this year so far.

Eduardo Nunez and Rafael Devers have made the most significant impact on the offense. Both have nearly carried the Red Sox since they appeared.   Nunez is batting .384 and Devers is .348.

They have already contributed 10 HRs between them and injected a certain’ je ne sais quoi’ into the team. Something that was much needed.

Both catchers have been outstanding with Vazquez surprising many with his production at the plate.

Dustin Pedroia’s knee remains a considerable concern  The veteran is currently batting .303 and remains the leader in the clubhouse. With Holt healthy and the emergence of Nunez, the Red Sox have the flexibility to make up for Pedroia’s absence on the field.

The key question focuses on whether someone will fill the leadership gap.

Powerful pitching

In pitching, the team closes in on the top of the tree only behind the Dodgers, the Indians and the Diamondbacks in team ERA (3.65).

The star of the show has been Chris Sale, the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young Award. He leads the ways in strikeouts with 241. Max Scherzer is next with 220. That shows Sale’s dominance.

Although David Price divides opinion among the faithfull, he is an important cog in the rotation, performing as he did last year despite periods on the DL. He will be needed when and if the post season beckons.

Last year’s CY Young winner, Rick Porcello, has been a little disappointing but has suffered more than most from a lack of run support.

E-Rod remains an enigma but Drew Pomeranz has been outstanding. With a 12-4 record and a 3.39 ERA, he will need to keep that form together and stay healthy.

The fifth starter remains a problem for the Red Sox and Doug Fister is not the solution.

The bullpen is pretty solid and is having a good year with Kimbrel doing what it says on the tin with 28 saves, 94 strikeouts and an ERA of 1.41.

Although Joe Kelly has pitched well, there is a concern about the relievers as a group. All are prone to giving up crucial runs at the wrong time. The strategy also seems unclear about their use.

Are you ready for some playoffs?

Play off baseball is different and the pitching staff will need to be on their mettle. Terry Francona showed what could be done. Let’s hope Farrell has the same command of his pitchers.

If the Red Sox don’t make the playoff its will be a disaster. They have the talent and the resources.

Betts, Bogaerts and Ramirez need to get their bats going on a consistent basis and the bullpen needs to get some consistency. They cannot afford to waste the efforts of the starters and lose tight games.