Tag Archives: 2019 Boston Red Sox

The 2019 Red Sox: Shades of the summer of 2004

2004 Drama

Just before the nadir of that 2004 season it was the salad days of high drama for the Red Sox. Most noteworthy Nomar Garciaparra got traded, then July 24th 2004 happened. Remember that one? On the NESN DVD for the 2004 team you can see Kevin Millar talking about going 2-0 that day. Bill Mueller hit a walk-off homer against the great Mariano Rivera, after the Sox maybe or maybe not won one of the last true fights in the rivalry. What people don’t talk about is the aftermath of that game.

Storm clouds

From being 8.5 games behind the Yankees after that game, through August 6th of 2004, the Red Sox dropped to a season low 10.5 games behind the Yankees. All that momentum from winning two out of three in Fenway against the Yankees vanished. It took until August 16th of 2004 for the Red Sox to finally stay above the 10.5 game drop.

That was a dark time. I personally watched Red Sox stickers being torn off cars in the work parking lot during lunch breaks.

Right now references to the 2018 World Championship team are met with disdain and anger. 2018 World Championship gear? At best it’s in the closet. At worst it’s about to be burned in the upcoming Fourth of July celebrations in Red Sox Nation. This is a very familiar feeling.

More old is new again, including hope

From June 29th to July 1st of 2004 the Red Sox were on the road against the Yankees and got swept. Two of those games were bullpen meltdowns. One each saddled on Curt Leskanic and Mike Timlin. Derek Lowe took the other loss. Sound familiar? Put Eduardo Rodriguez in Derek Lowe’s place and it’s almost a carbon copy of what just happened.

At that time the Red Sox were 42-34. Right now the 2019 team is 44-40. This illustrates that the 2019 has dealt with a compressed schedule, putting even more pressure on the bullpen and team overall. Yes, the 2004 team was eight games over .500, this team is half that. But they’ve also played eight more games than their 2004 counterparts by the same date in the calendar.

That team had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. This team has Chris Sale and David Price. For every Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz there is J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. 2019 is seeing the breakout of Rafael Devers and continuing stardom of Xander Bogaerts. We’re seeing Christian Vazquez dominate in the batter’s box in ways we never imagined.

Curt Leskanic and Mike Myers were added in the summer of 2004. With Alex Cora and, more importantly, principal owner John Henry making noise about being disappointed with this team we’re sure to see some bullpen additions between now and July 31st.

Yes, the 2004 team never did close the gap on the Yankees. And the Wild Card is now a play in game in contrast to a five game series. This team has the talent and resources to still make a run, and will be favored in any play in game. Despite the panic there’s still plenty of time. 2004 is the road map.

Nathan Eovaldi Should Be Top Priority

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2018 was a fun ride for fans and players, now it’s time to get down to business. For the Red Sox, I think they need to find a way to keep Eovaldi in Boston. Reports on the situation are that Boston does indeed want to re-sign him. If they are unable to make that happen, they want to sign another proven Major League starter to replace him. I think that it is imperative to keep him.

Here’s Why Eovaldi Needs To Stay

With Nathan Eovaldi re-signed Boston’s starting rotation would be unreal with Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez all staying put. Suring up that rotation with Nathan would be smart. Boston has their key offensive pieces in place. Boston doesn’t have to worry about Mookie Betts or JD Martinez this year, so instead of signing another veteran pitcher, this is why Eovaldi is the answer.

Game 4 of the ALDS against the rival Yankees, Eovaldi dominated, pitching 7 plus innings with 1 run allowed. New York is also one of the teams that could be in on him. As the Red Sox continued into the ALCS, Eovaldi was great again. 6 plus innings with just 2 runs as the Sox won Game 3 using his arm again. As we all know by now the Red Sox beat the Houston Astros, and we were introduced to the rover. Alex Cora used Eovaldi as his rover in game 5 of the ALCS and in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. In those 3 games, he came into each game and threw fire allowing 0 runs, while making it look easy. Even with short rest, Boston was going to have him start Game 4 of the World Series, but Game 3 changed that plan.

Eovaldi Turns in Heroic Performance Showing His Selflessness

Eovaldi was perfect for the Red Sox and should stay in Boston

Once again, Eovaldi was called on as Game 3 of the World Series turned into a marathon of a game. Still tied in the 12th inning, Nathan Eovaldi came out of the pen. In one of the greatest performances I’ve ever witnessed, he turned in a heroic 6 inning relief appearance. He knew that he was putting his future in jeopardy, by pitching so often. Anything could have happened and he could’ve lost a lot of money. As a free-agent-to-be, he risked his health along with future contracts, but he just wanted to help his team. Putting all of that aside, he went deep into the 18th inning, hitting triple digits on the radar gun like it was nothing.

Eovaldi pitched a gem and kept the Sox in the game as long as he could. In the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a solo shot to end the longest game in history. His teammates were all amazed at what he just did, some brought to tears as they realized how much Nathan just gave for his team. I believe it galvanized an already very close clubhouse. Eovaldi was a huge reason for Boston’s Championship.

Closing Thoughts on Nathan Eovaldi

Boston should do what they can to keep Eovaldi. He’s 28 years old, extremely dominant and the way he pitched since arriving in Boston is all I need to know about him. For what it’s worth he threw 16 scoreless innings against the Yankees in the regular season. Also, his 1.35 ERA in September combined with what he did in the postseason, I believe he’s worth the $15 million range. He himself said he’d love to stay in Boston. While many teams will be fighting for him, I believe he wants to be here enough that he and Boston will work something out.

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: The Craig Kimbrel Question

Craig Kimbrel

In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers. 5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA. If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.

Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect. Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.

Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings. That’s a lot of base runners. When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works. When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton. And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.

All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer. But who is out there who could be a good fit? Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option. He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018. The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance. That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.

There’s a lot to like about Herrera. He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019. He also he walks the fewest batters. His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group. It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat. Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.

His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year. His injuries were bad luck. This year was his first extended time on the DL.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive. He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Cody Allen

This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018. While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.

Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success. In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9. That is dominant.

Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question. But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.

Conclusion

Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary. But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.

Boston Sports Extra

By Boston Fans, For Boston Fans