Tag Archives: 2019 Boston Red Sox Bullpen

Nathan Eovaldi Should Be Top Priority

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2018 was a fun ride for fans and players, now it’s time to get down to business. For the Red Sox, I think they need to find a way to keep Eovaldi in Boston. Reports on the situation are that Boston does indeed want to re-sign him. If they are unable to make that happen, they want to sign another proven Major League starter to replace him. I think that it is imperative to keep him.

Here’s Why Eovaldi Needs To Stay

With Nathan Eovaldi re-signed Boston’s starting rotation would be unreal with Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez all staying put. Suring up that rotation with Nathan would be smart. Boston has their key offensive pieces in place. Boston doesn’t have to worry about Mookie Betts or JD Martinez this year, so instead of signing another veteran pitcher, this is why Eovaldi is the answer.

Game 4 of the ALDS against the rival Yankees, Eovaldi dominated, pitching 7 plus innings with 1 run allowed. New York is also one of the teams that could be in on him. As the Red Sox continued into the ALCS, Eovaldi was great again. 6 plus innings with just 2 runs as the Sox won Game 3 using his arm again. As we all know by now the Red Sox beat the Houston Astros, and we were introduced to the rover. Alex Cora used Eovaldi as his rover in game 5 of the ALCS and in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. In those 3 games, he came into each game and threw fire allowing 0 runs, while making it look easy. Even with short rest, Boston was going to have him start Game 4 of the World Series, but Game 3 changed that plan.

Eovaldi Turns in Heroic Performance Showing His Selflessness

Rover

Eovaldi was perfect for the Red Sox and should stay in Boston

Once again, Eovaldi was called on as Game 3 of the World Series turned into a marathon of a game. Still tied in the 12th inning, Nathan Eovaldi came out of the pen. In one of the greatest performances I’ve ever witnessed, he turned in a heroic 6 inning relief appearance. He knew that he was putting his future in jeopardy, by pitching so often. Anything could have happened and he could’ve lost a lot of money. As a free-agent-to-be, he risked his health along with future contracts, but he just wanted to help his team. Putting all of that aside, he went deep into the 18th inning, hitting triple digits on the radar gun like it was nothing.

Eovaldi pitched a gem and kept the Sox in the game as long as he could. In the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a solo shot to end the longest game in history. His teammates were all amazed at what he just did, some brought to tears as they realized how much Nathan just gave for his team. I believe it galvanized an already very close clubhouse. Eovaldi was a huge reason for Boston’s Championship.

 Closing Thoughts on Nathan Eovaldi

Boston should do what they can to keep Eovaldi. He’s 28 years old, extremely dominant and the way he pitched since arriving in Boston is all I need to know about him. For what it’s worth he threw 16 scoreless innings against the Yankees in the regular season. Also, his 1.35 ERA in September combined with what he did in the postseason, I believe he’s worth the $15 million range. He himself said he’d love to stay in Boston. While many teams will be fighting for him, I believe he wants to be here enough that he and Boston will work something out.

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: The Craig Kimbrel Question

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There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Yesterday I took a look at Joe Kelly.  The biggest piece, closer Craig Kimbrel, is today’s focus..  Is he worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Craig Kimbrel

In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers.  5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA.  If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.

Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect.  Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.

Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings.  That’s a lot of base runners.  When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works.  When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton.  And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.

All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer.  But who is out there who could be a good fit?  Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option.  He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.

His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year.  His injuries were bad luck.  This year was his first extended time on the DL.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Cody Allen

This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018.  While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.

Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success.  In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9.  That is dominant.

Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question.  But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.

Conclusion

Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary.  But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: Joe Kelly or David Robertson

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There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Two big pieces, closer Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, are both free agents.  Who is worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Today is the beginning of our deep dive into those questions.  We start with Joe Kelly.

Joe Kelly

Kelly had an indelible stamp on the 2018 team.  He started the year by blowing game 1.  He became Jim Buchanon and started a Joe Kelly Fight Club faze when he called out Tyler Austin of the Yankees.  Then he became an afterthought and albatross around the neck of the bullpen as the summer dragged on.

But then, in the playoffs, the mid-bullpen became a strength, because he became a strength.  In six innings in the World Series he had a 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts.  That is domination.

However, is that the Joe Kelly we know for any other stretch of time?  His ERA over the past three years has been 4.12 during the regular season.  His fastball has averaged 97.8 MPH over that same time.  How is that?

It has been noted frequently that his fastball is straight, and he could not get his breaking ball over for strikes.  This lead to walks, a lot of them.  Almost 5 per 9 innings, 4.67 to be exact.

It feels like instead of only relying on his gifted arm that can throw gas with ease, he finally starting pitching in this postseason.  Because he threw his breaking ball for strikes, it was almost that simple.

It’s at least a question whether he can repeat it.  Will he continue to work after winning the World Series?  Is he worth betting on?  History says no.  How about an alternative?

David Robertson

One name is David Robertson.  He has spent the past year and a half toiling in the mid to late innings for the New York Yankees.  Before that he was the Chicago White Sox closer.  Unlike Craig Kimbrel, Robertson has proven he can work in different innings and different game situations.

He throws a lot softer than Joe Kelly, averaging 91.9 MPH over the same 3 year period.  But his ERA weighs in at 2.85, about 30% better than Kelly.   He also strikes out 25% more batters.  How can this be?

Because he throws more strikes, and he pitches rather than throws.  He walks a batter less than Kelly.  Less runners on base leads to fewer runs allowed.

Conclusion

It’s not perfect.  Robertson still walks 3.7 per 9 innings, that’s high for a reliever.  Robertson is also 3 years older than Kelly.

But Kelly was not given the 8th inning with a lead until game 5 of the World Series.  This was not an accident, Cora didn’t trust him there.  Robertson can work the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever you want.

Robertson will command north of what he’s making now, $13 Million per year.  Kelly probably much less.  But a team could bid up Kelly and make him expensive.

The choice here is Robertson, if you can convince him.  He’s representing himself in free agent negotiations and probably looking for closing opportunities.

The Red Sox might have an opening at closer.  More on that tomorrow.