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Brady Theory’s Debunked With Facts-Part 1

“Tom Is A Product of the Patriots System”

Haters across the country can’t stop calling Brady a system QB. While every team has a system, and 3/4s of the teams using the same style. Why aren’t they playing in February? The answer is Tom Brady. We know his skill, so let’s look deeper. Brady has had numerous Offensive Coordinators. In the beginning it was Charlie Weiss. Charlie’s offenses in NY and NE before Tom Brady were ranked 12th, 5th, 19th and 25th. Compare those numbers with a very green, backup QB in Tom Brady. Charlie’s 4 years with Tom his offenses ranked 6th, 10th, 12th and 4th. This is what I call the Brady difference. Weiss left after 4 years with Brady to coach Notre Dame, ending with a record of 41-49.

Josh McDaniels makes Tom Brady Great. Well no, not at all. He has had success with Tom just like Weiss, but without Brady his numbers declined drastically. Working with Brady, Josh McDaniels offenses have been incredible. The worst those two finished was 10th in points and 11th in yards. Every other season with Brady, New England’s Offense was ranked top 3 in points, with one top 5 finish. McDaniels in St.Louis and Denver running the same system, ranked 20th, 19th and dead last at 32nd. (Brady Difference.)

Bill O’Brien in 2011 must’ve been the reason Brady and the offense was 3rd in points scored right? I don’t think so, since leaving the Pats O’Brien’s offenses in points scored rank 14th, 21st, 28th, 17th and 11th. Quite the drop off without Brady under Center. So if you say “System QB”, I say it’s the Brady difference.

Well What About Bill Belichick? “He makes Tom Brady”

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick stands alone as the greatest HC, he must be why Brady’s so great

First let me say that while Bill is the best coach of all time, that didn’t really start until Brady came into the mix. In Cleveland Bill went 35-55, along with 5-11 his first year in NE without Tom. There’s that Tom Brady difference again.

2008 Same Team No Brady

But Matt Cassel went 11-5 when Brady was hurt

This argument often made by haters really grinds my gears: “If Brady is so good then how did Matt Cassel go 11-5?”

Well let’s break it down. The 2007 and 2008 teams had the same roster minus Donte Stallworth on offense. In 2007 Tom Brady and his offense set records for TDs, Rec TDs and points scored. The team went 18-0 only to lose the SB just missing the perfect season. The 2007 offense with Tom had a 315 point differential, compared to Cassel’s team dropping 214 points all the way down to a 101 point differential. So the same team, with different QBs went from the best offense ever, to average and missing the playoffs.

2007 Brady- 4,806 yards, 50 TD/8 INTs with a 117 Passer rating along with MVP honors.

2008 Cassel- 3,693 yards, 21 TD/11 INTs with an 89 passer rating with the same offense. (Brady Difference)

In 2010 Matt Cassel made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl with KC. He was no stiff, throwing 27 TDs to just 7 INTs, which was the second best ratio in the league that year. Who could’ve been number 1 I wonder? Tom Brady of course, as he won the only unanimous MVP in league history. Sorry to say again but the Brady Difference is quite obvious in this popular theory among haters.

“Tom Isn’t Good without a Great Defense”

The Patriots had a very good defense in Tom’s early years, and certainly was a huge factor in the first 3 Super Bowls. People say Brady was carried by his defenses, which is not the case. From 2001-2004, with Brady coming in as a backup, he put together 10 4th quarter comebacks and 15 game winning drives. The numbers seem to show he did his part and then some, but that’s not what the haters want you to think.

Brady led the NFL in TD passes in 2002, so it’s not a reach at all to say the Patriots may have not won those Super Bowls without Tom Brady. For example, in Super Bowl 38 the Pats defense gave up 29 points to the Panthers. A young QB named Tom Brady going up against a fierce defense threw for 354 yards, 3 TDs and his second clutch SB game winning drive. Without Brady things could’ve been a lot different that day.

Jumping ahead to Patriots Defenses that weren’t as talented. The four year stretch from 2010-2013, New England’s defense was never better than 25th in total yards allowed. But again Brady in 2010 won MVP and got the #1 seed. 2011 the Pats were back in the Super Bowl despite being 31st in yards against, and that’s due to Tom Brady. In 2012 and 2013, Brady and the Pats went back to the AFC Championship but lost. Some people think going as far as possible in sports and losing is worse than not making the championship game at all. Ridiculous.

In 2017 the defense was ranked 29th. Brady and the offense once again were back in the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick shocked Pats nation by benching Malcolm Butler. The defense got shredded by a backup QB, giving up 41 points. Even in defeat Brady put up historic numbers, throwing for 505 yards with 3 TDs with no INTs.

My conclusion on this theory about his Defenses is that Brady always has done his part to win games and make it to the AFC Championship or Super Bowl. I don’t see him being carried by anything, like the haters do. Another interesting stat: In 17 seasons the Pats Defense was statistically better than the offense only 3 times. In 9 of those 17 seasons with Brady as the starter, the defense was ranked 20th or worse in yards allowed. Defensive “myth” shut down with facts.

“Joe Montana Never Lost in the Super Bowl”

The debate over Montana and Brady has many factors. Joe Montana was the Greatest ever in my eyes, up until Brady’s comeback in Super Bowl 49 against the Seahawks. Since Brady tied Montana with 4 Super Bowl wins, he has gone to 3 straight Super Bowls and won 2. The real crime here is the loss to the eagles. Brady had the best Super Bowl performance of all time.

Some people say Brady can’t be better than Montana because Joe cool never lost in his 4 chances. The fact of the matter is that every athlete would tell you getting to the Championship and losing is better than not making it there at all. As we all know, Brady’s been to 9 Super Bowls with 6 wins. Let’s not forget the amount of Hall Of Fame players Montana had on both sides of the ball. He also had a coach in Bill Walsh who came up with an offense no one had ever seen before. It took years for teams to adjust to this new style of football, a great coach and system that Montana thrived in.

Brady on the other hand did not, and still doesn’t have anywhere close to the number of Hall Of Fame players Joe had. The comebacks alone in Super Bowls favor Brady, having 6 in 6 wins. And did his part in the losses too, by getting the lead, only for the defense to break at the end.

Montana has been bounced twice in the divisional round, twice in the Wild Card and three times in the NFC Championship. Montana in 11 seasons has gone one and done in the playoffs 4 times.

The GOAT Tom Brady in 16 playoff runs is 13-2 in the divisional round, 2-1 in the WC round and 9-4 in the AFC Championship. Brady in 16 seasons has gone one and done just twice in the playoffs.

Is 4-0 better than 6-3 in the Super Bowl? If you’ve never played sports then maybe you’d say yes. The ultimate goal of any athlete is to go as far as you can. That is something Brady’s done better than Montana. Doing so with less talent, an offense that has been seen before (unlike the 49ers), all while getting better with age. Brady wins this round, the numbers don’t lie.

“Montana Played in a Tougher and Better Era”

Again, not taking anything away from Joe Montana, I’m just telling it how it is. Sure the rules for QBs have changed over the years, but Brady played in a tough era of football himself. Rule changes to help offenses didn’t make an ounce of a difference until 2011. QB numbers didn’t go up or benefit Brady for an entire decade. From 2000-2011 only two players had a season with great numbers, Brady in 2007 and Manning in 2004. Since 2011 pretty much every QBs numbers are inflated like never before.

Defining the toughness of different eras contains a few different things:

Free Agency -Montana played when teams didn’t change and Hall Of Fame players typically stayed together. Brady has had a revolving door of players throughout his entire career, mostly castaways who were turned into Champions.

Defensive players -Tom Brady has played and shredded some of the best defenders and all time defensive units and coaches. The 2000 Steelers and Ravens, 2003 Buccaneers, The LOB Seahawks were no match in the Super Bowl, 2015 Broncos, 2017 Jags, the two Giants Super Bowl teams and the 2018 Rams. Just think of the players on those teams, and how if it weren’t for Brady most of them would have Super Bowl rings.

Geography – Joe Montana Played in a sunny warm climate, while Brady’s been playing in the Northeast. Freezing temperatures, snow and rain in a division where he plays in Boston and New York. No problem for #12.

This is the first of my 3 part Myth Busting Brady Hate. Next up will be topics like “The AFC Least”, “Deflategate, “Brady has no records” and my personal favorite: QBs like Rodgers, Marino, Brees and Manning being on Tom Brady’s level. Starting to feel like I’m writing a book, so these next topics plus more will be coming out soon. Hope you Pats fans can use some of these facts when arguing with Brady hating friends.

NFL Week 15 Playoff Implications: Win or Out

Playoff Race Heats Up

Well, it’s Week 15 and nearly every game carries playoff implications. In fact, every game aside from the one that already occurred (Denver at Indy) carries playoff implications. Some teams are fighting for the division title, while others desperately try to claw their way into wild card contention. Only two divisions have been clinched thus far as the two teams representing Pennsylvania have clinched their respective divisions. In the rather weak AFC, it seems as though almost every team still has a shot to get it. The Jags and Titans are still battling for the AFC South crown. The AFC West is as hectic as you will ever see. The Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders are all within a game of each other. With a lack of quality teams in the AFC, it appears nine wins will be enough to earn a playoff spot.

Over in the far more competitive NFC, nine wins ain’t going to cut it. I’m not even sure if 10 wins will be enough. The NFC currently contains ten teams with a winning record. Tight battles are still being fought for the NFC West crown as well as the NFC South. Football fans have the luxury of witnessing the Rams roll into Seattle this Sunday. LA will certainly be seeking revenge on their rival as they lost 16-10 at home vs Seattle in Week 5. Also, the three team race for the NFC South ensues as the Falcons, Saints and Panthers are all separated by just one game.

So, which teams face an absolute must win scenario if they wish to keep their playoff hopes alive?

Detroit Lions vs Chicago

The Lions continue to fly under the radar in the NFC. Detroit lurks in the shadows of the NFC bullies such as the Eagles, Saints, Rams and Vikings. However, the fact of the matter is that Detroit (7-6) still has a shot at making the playoffs. Their final lunge into the playoffs will start this week with a very winnable home game against the Bears. Their luck will continue into Week 16 as they will travel to Cincinnati to face a team that will only be playing for pride. Unfortunately, their luck will end there because healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will roll into town, also fighting for a playoff spot. Lions fans: when Week 17 arrives, it’s best you wish for two things:

1. Aaron Rodgers is still a little rusty

2. Stafford will have one final fourth quarter game-winning drives left in the tank.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina

Very tough test here for the Pack. Luckily they have their superstar QB returning this week. Unfortunately, they have to travel to Carolina to face a team that has won five of its last six games. Carolina has been scoring in bunches over their past four games, averaging 33 points during that span. Hopefully for Packers fans, Rodgers will be fully healthy, any signs of rustiness could be the difference this week. Also, much unlike the aforementioned Detroit Lions, the Packers have a harsh schedule to close out the season. After Carolina will be Minnesota at home and then of course at Detroit. Green Bay will need Aaron Rodgers to be Aaron Rodgers if they want to participate in the playoffs this season.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland

Both teams are featured in bold in the headline because they both MUST win this game to keep playoff hopes alive. It will be a tall task for either team to make the playoffs as they both have tough remaining schedules. Oakland of course starts with Dallas at home then travels to Philadelphia and then to LA to face the Chargers. The Eagles sans Wentz are certainly less intimidating but still a force to be reckoned with. The road tilt in LA will not be any easier as the Chargers are playing as well as almost anyone in the AFC. It will be tough, but if Oakland manages to win out, then they will have a great shot at getting into the playoffs.

It will not be any easier for the Cowboys. Starting with the match up of iconic franchises in Oakland. Dallas will attempt to get by one final time without their superstar running back. If they manage to win in Oakland and get Ezekiel Elliott back for the Seahawks and Eagles then they certainly have a chance. However, never mind Seattle and Philadelphia for now because it is “win or out” for Dallas as they will need 10 wins to make the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo

Well it certainly seems as though the ‘Fins season was over long ago after suffering some embarrassing losses this year. However, their embarrassing losses seem to be cancelled out by impressive wins, most notably their Week 14 win. Miami pulled off what was potentially the upset of the year as they handed New England a 27-20 loss. It is quite remarkable that Miami ranks 27th in the NFL in point differential at -82 but they are still fighting for a playoff spot. It will be a very tough road for Miami as they are at Buffalo, at Kansas City and then back home against Buffalo to wrap up the season. Miami will need to win all three of their remaining games if they wish to be playing in mid-January. Unfortunately, KC and Buffalo are both fighting for a playoff spot as well so Miami will have to be at their very best.

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

Quick Hits and Tidbits Around the NFL

Jimmy G Report

49ers’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was stellar at Chicago in his first start with his new team. In addition to passing the eye test, he made several accurate throws in leading San Francisco to their second win of the year. Make no mistake, he was not facing Richard Dent or Dick Butkus, but Garappolo was outstanding in marching his team down the field all afternoon. Obviously he will have to tighten some things up in the red zone. But that largely could be a product of a lack of weapons at his disposal. The Niners will make it a priority to surround Garoppolo and their excellent half backs with a stronger offensive line and a solid WR1. Those moves make the Niners a team that could compete for a playoff spot sooner than later.

Teammate Carlos Hyde acknowledged that Garappolo looked like he learned a lot from Tom Brady. If he did, he can look forward to a superb career. Brady backups don’t necessarily work out 100% of the time. Ryan Mallet comes to mind as an utter flop. But there is a lot of optimism in the Bay area. The 1986 Bills went 4-12 with Jim Kelly and the 1998 Indianapolis Colts went 3-13 with Peyton Manning. Yet their fan bases looked to the future (rightfully so), seeing that good things were ahead. Such can be the case this season with Garoppolo if he continues to look as good as he did this past Sunday.

Heart Meter – The Broncos

One cannot get over the difference between teams that play hard for their coach and teams that do not. Last Sunday the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets were at the total opposite end of the heart meter. The Broncos were listless, emotionless, and pathetic in a loss to the Miami Dolphins. On the other hand, the Jets played with great guts and gusto in a 38-31 victory over Kansas City.

Denver’s season got off to a strong enough start. In fact, when they crushed Dallas in September, Trevor Siemian was being appointed as a real deal starting QB in the NFL. But, he crashed to the earth and his demise was as swift as his ascension. He has arguably been the worst passer in the NFL over the past two months. Brock Osweiler has been almost as bad. And Paxton Lynch was injured.

Anyone who watches the Broncos knows the problems are not just at the quarterback position. It was just two years ago that this team with an armless Peyton Manning and the inconsistent Osweiler won the Super Bowl. The huge difference between this Broncos’ team and the great teams in years’ past is they lack passion and exuberance. A very unscrutinized move this past offseason by GM John Elway was letting TJ Ward walk. Ward is an excellent safety; a Rodney Harrison-type. His teammates loved him. And, they were not silent about his departure.

Hence, when things went south, the only thing that could get this defense the slightest fired up was Aqib Talib’s obsession with Oakland receiver Michael Crabtree’s neck wear.

It looks like Vance Joseph will last only one season. And it appears his players don’t care. Miami went up 33-9 and attempted an onside kick. Yet, not a single member of the Broncos seemed to worry about being disrespected. Nobody seemed aggravated with Adam Gase’s unsportsmanlike call. The Broncos are obviously just playing out the string.

Heart Meter – The Jets

With the Jets, their 5-7 record is far exceeding their preseason expectations. With a 38-year old journeyman quarterback and a group of no names playing along the offensive line, it is simply unbelievable what they have accomplished this season. When they fell behind a determined Chiefs’ team, it would have been easy for the Jets to reckon, “It’s not our day”. But, they fired back swiftly and defeated the befuddled Chiefs 38-31.

Getty Images

Todd Bowles, as a player, was cool and quiet. That style fits his young team. Bowles has done an excellent job with this team and unlike the Broncos and the Giants for that matter, his guys play hard for him and each other.

Antonio Brown is Amazing

Speaking of playing with heart and guts, is there anybody in the NFL better than Antonio Brown? This guy brings it each week. Indeed, at his pace, he will a first ballot Hall of Famer. One would be hard-pressed to find a wide receiver in NFL history that has dominated so many games over such a long period time as Brown has done since 2013.

Aaron Doster

Therefore, Brown truly deserves MVP consideration. Other than Adrian Peterson’s other-worldly 2012 season, the league MVP typically goes to the quarterback with the best stats or on the best team. This season is not different. The national media has fallen in love with Carson Wentz so he will be a favorite. Russell Wilson has been incredible this season and Tom Brady is Tom Brady so they will be in the conversation as well. But, it is foolhardy to think the NFL has a more valuable player than the Steelers’ wide out. Brown makes terrific catches. He is an elusive runner in the open field. He is as tough as nails and has as much fun on the field as can be allowed by the league office. Those are the necessary traits to deem someone as valuable.

Can Green Bay Really Make the Playoffs?

The Packers are actually in pretty good shape to make the playoffs if Aaron Rodgers plays as great as he usually does down the stretch this season. He will not be eligible to play at Cleveland. But, Green Bay should be able to win that ball game even with back up Brett Hundley.

Rodgers can play next week at Carolina, which conveniently is a team that the Pack will need to catch. After that, Green Bay will host the Vikings on a Sunday night with revenge on their minds. They then close at Detroit. They hold tiebreakers over Dallas and Seattle, but not with Atlanta if it comes down to those things. If they “run the table”, they will likely get in and if they get in, look out!

The NFC has been much more exciting, interesting and competitive this season than the AFC. Their champion will have truly deserved it. Consider this: The teams in the hunt like Carolina, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas and Green Bay are vastly superior to the AFC teams in the hunt like Tennessee, Baltimore, Buffalo, Oakland, and Kansas City. What is the big deal? Pittsburgh and New England will truly have the easiest route to winning the Super Bowl this season. So, the more that things change, the more they stay the same.

Brandon Fazzolari is a Super Bowl expert…@spot_Bills

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