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RED SOX – ASTROS SERIES PREVIEW

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After sweeping Seattle and then splitting the series with the Rockies, the Red Sox are looking at .500 in the rear view mirror. However, now the Red Sox embark on a huge part of their schedule. In their next five series they face the Astros home and away, square off with Cleveland at Fenway, then head to New York. This series against the Astros could lay a marker for how the coming weeks might shape up.

5/18 Rick Porcello vs. Gerrit Cole (R) 7:10 pm NESN

5/19 Hector Velazquez vs. Corbin Martin (R) 7:15 pm NESN

5/20 Chris Sale vs. Brad Peacock (R) 1:05 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

Pitchers

It is nice to be talking positively about Chris Sale again! In his last five starts, Sale has allowed just seven earned runs in 33 innings pitched. There is also the small matter of the incredibly number of strikeouts. In those last five starts he has 59 strikeouts. That is as incredible as it gets, and is nearly two strikeouts per innings! In fact the guys at Fangraphs took a deep dive into Sale’s 2019 season so far, which I highly recommend you read.

Corbin Martin was very impressive in his season debut for the Astros. In 5 1/3 innings he struck out nine and allowed just two earned runs. However, the Rangers and Red Sox are very different teams. The Rangers brand of baseball right now is essentially all or nothing. They are either going to batter you, or strikeout trying. The Red Sox have a little more nuance to their offense. It will be interesting to see how Martin fairs, but more than anything it will be good for the Red Sox to get a chance to face him. There is a good chance they could be seeing him again come playoff time.

Gerrit Cole is the ace in this series for the Astros. However, he has had some struggles in 2019, especially on the road. Away from Houston this season Cole has a 4.30 ERA, but has struck out 49 hitters in 29 1/3 innings. This should be a fascinating duel between a pitcher providing mixed results, and a lineup which is starting to hit its rhythm.

Hitters

The Red Sox face three right-handed pitchers in this series in the form of Cole, Martin and Peacock. This season the Red Sox hitters rank 15th in home runs, fifth in batting average, and eighth in runs scored against righties. However, they will need to be at their peak at the plate in this series against a potent Astros team.

The Astros offense is lighting up the stat sheet this season. Heading into this series they rank first in the majors in batting average, OBP, runs, home runs and slugging percentage. Their offense is a juggernaut. Either this team is going to have to pitch well, or the hitters are going to have to go toe-to-toe with them.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: The news that Sale is back close to his old self is a massive relief, but their are still question marks. Porcello is just meh, and the Red Sox are going to need him to be better come the end of the season and during the playoffs. Velazquez has been promising, but he has only gone five innings once this season, mostly serving in a relief role. Now would be a great time for Sale to show us he is right back at the height of his powers, and for Porcello to step up and demonstrate he can be a contributor in the playoffs this year.

Hitting: Now that J.D. Martinez is finally starting to find his power legs things feel a little more comfortable. Martinez already has five home runs this month, and his power being a factor means that this lineup can go head-to-head with anyone. On top of that Andrew Benintendi has three home runs this month, and suddenly this team is not being carried by the power of Mitch Moreland and Michael Chavis, which is a huge relief. Now it would be great if this lineup can take apart a good rotation and settle any remaining concerns.

EXPECTATIONS

The three game cushion over the .500 mark provides some consolation that if things go wrong here, the Red Sox are still above water. However, this series is about so much more than just this series. The way the Astros are playing there is a good chance that the Red Sox will meet them again in the Postseason. That series is also more likely to be on the road right now, so losing to them at home would be less than ideal.

This series is the first part of an Astros double, with a trip to the Blue Jays filling the sandwich. The Red Sox have a legitimate opportunity to stamp their authority back on the AL over the next week. If they can win series both at home and on the road against the Astros, everyone will be back to taking them seriously. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Right now getting out of Boston with a win in this series would be a major accomplishment.

BSE Baseball Writers Postseason Predictions

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Following up our predictions for the major awards in the upcoming baseball season, the baseball writers here at Boston Sports Extra make our predictions on the most important thing of all; the postseason. Who will win their divisions, who will sneak in as Wild Cards, and ultimately, who will win the World Series?

American League East

Thom Howland: Boston Red Sox

No bullpen? No problem. Sale is ready for a Cy Young season, Price is over the playoff hump, Porcello is a rock, and EROD is about to make the leap.  The lineup is 2004 deep, and AC is a wizard.

Scott Frizzell: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox won’t win as many games as last season, but who does? Both them and the Yankees should drop into the 90’s for a win total, with the divisional race going down to the wire.

John Principe: Boston Red Sox

Even though the Yankees have certainly closed the gap, and the Rays have also taken a step forward, this division is still Boston’s to lose. I think this team is more than capable of winning their 4th straight AL East.

Ben Rolfe: New York Yankees

It will be a two horse race but the combination of a little more offensive depth and the best bullpen in the majors should mean the Yankees come out on top this season.

Mike Quilty: Boston Red Sox

Boston’s rotation looks to be one of the best, if not the best in baseball. With Sale as #1 and Price at #5 it’s going to be tough for teams to score, especially with the defensive talent in the field. Best outfield, good infield with a stacked lineup to jump on teams. Boston will figure out the closer spot and will look to go deep into the playoffs.

American League Central

Thom Howland: Cleveland Indians

Their starters are deep, almost the rival of the Sox.  They have an MVP candidate in Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor’s not far behind.  But their depth is questionable, and their bullpen beyond Brad Hand is unproven.  They’ll win a weak division.

Scott Frizzell: Cleveland Indians

The Indians have seemingly taken a step backward, but with the rest of the division being arguably the worst in baseball, they should still have this division wrapped up with a couple weeks to go. Their rotation is one of the best in baseball one through five.

John Principe: Minnesota Twins

The Indians are obviously the clear pick here, but with questions up and down their lineup, I decided to open this one up a little. The Tigers and Royals are clearly in rebuilding modes and the White Sox are still a year or two away. This leaves the Twins; with an improved lineup, rotation and a new manager, all of which I believe will culminate for a surprising division win.

Ben Rolfe: Cleveland Indians

The White Sox will be better than many expect but the Indians should romp home comfortably in the Central. They just have too much everywhere for a generally weak division.

Mike Quilty: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is in a very winnable division as it is, not to mention their pitching. I see Cleveland racking up wins in 2019.

American League West

Thom Howland: Houston Astros

Formidable. And Josh James will be there full time this year and push for the Rookie of the Year.

Scott Frizzell: Houston Astros

As was the case in the central, I don’t see any team making this a race. The Astros have both the best rotation and the best lineup in the division.

John Principe: Houston Astros

This division should be more tightly contested this year than in the past few. The A’s and Angels are both going to be right there with the Astros all year, but to me with the addition of Brantley, the Astros are still superior to the other 4 teams in their division.

Ben Rolfe: Houston Astros

Perhaps the most competitive division in terms of depth in the AL. Expect one or two of the Mariners, A’s and Angels to push this deep into September. However, the Astros will have the experience and talent to win this division once again, led by their one-two punch of Verlander and Cole.

Mike Quilty: Houston Astros

This pick seems like a lock as Houston looks like the best team in baseball from top to bottom. The Astros will be a wagon in 2019.

American League Wild Cards

Thom Howland: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels

I feel really bad that New York’s Ace is dealing with injuries and their starters average age is in the mid-30s.  However, their lineup is the best in the game, and so is their bullpen, so they’ll push the Sox into September for the division lead. The Angels starters are iffy. Maybe Heaney stays healthy and Matt Harvey dons his cape and cowl once more.  Mike Trout is the current Best Player in Baseball (apologies to Mookie, he’s got to do it for a few more years to truly match Trout), Cozart, Bour, and Calhoun take a step forward, and the underrated bullpen gels. Pujols has one more decent season in him too.

Scott Frizzell: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels

The Yankees will be far ahead of the other teams vying for the Wild Card. I see the Angels, Rays, Twins, Athletics and possibly even the Mariners fighting for the second spot. The A’s will take a step backwards from their big season last year, as their rotation is highly questionable. So is the Angels, but I think their lineup puts a strong foot forward this year.

John Principe: New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians

There should be lots of teams left in contention with who I have winning the division (Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Indians, Rays, Blue Jays) but the two teams I think should comfortably land one and two, respectively, in the Wild Card standings, are the Yankees and Indians. Of all the teams in WC contention, those two are the deepest and most experienced and it would make for a great one game wild card.

Ben Rolfe: Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners

The Red Sox could easily win 100 games again and not win the division, but they will be a Wildcard team. The Mariners have made some fascinating moves, but their offense does just enough to drag them over the A’s and Rays for the fifth and final spot.

Mike Quilty: New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays

Having a lethal lineup that can score at will, the Yankees will be a hard out for any team that plays them this year. My second Wildcard pick is the Rays. After winning 90 games in 2018 TB added depth at an already good rotation and I think they will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2013

National League East

Thom Howland: Washington Nationals

It’s Ewing Theory time. Bye bye Harper, hello Division winner. They added Patrick Corbin to a loaded starting staff, their lineup is deep and balanced, and so is their bullpen. 

Scott Frizzell: Philadelphia Phillies

I correctly predicted the Phillies hanging in the playoff race until September before fading last year, saying they were a year away from making it. I’m not backing off them now, with the additions of Harper, Realmuto and Segura to the lineup. I would have liked to see them sign Dallas Keuchel to help shore up their rotation, but they should be in this anyways.

John Principe: Philadelphia Phillies

This division should be as hotly contested as any, with four teams all believing they can win it. I think the Braves take a slight step back, and the Mets are slightly inexperienced. This leaves Bryce Harper’s new team and his former team. While I think Juan Soto helps the Nationals improve on last year, I don’t believe it’s enough to catch Philly for the division.

Ben Rolfe: New York Mets

Much like the AL West this is a deep division with four challengers. The Phillies have the depth, the Braves have the young talent and the Nationals have the rotation. However, the Mets rotation is the one that shines and will lead New York one step closer to a potential Subway World Series.

Mike Quilty: Washington Nationals

Maybe I’m crazy, but even with the departure of Bryce Harper and missing the playoffs last year, I think they get this done. Washington has 3 great arms in their rotation with a mix of young and veteran talent. I think they just beat out Atlanta.

National League Central

Thom Howland: Chicago Cubs

Yu Darvish will bounce back and anchor a strong rotation that includes old friend Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana. Kris Bryant is healthy again, and the lineup has a ton of depth. A deep bullpen puts the cherry on top. The Chicago Cubs will be back as one of the top NL teams this year.

Scott Frizzell: St. Louis Cardinals

The NL East should be competitive, but this is probably the toughest division one through five with the Reds improvements. The Cardinals added Paul Goldschmidt this offseason to anchor a good lineup (if only they’d bench Dexter Fowler).

John Principe: St. Louis Cardinals

Another tightly contested division, every single team in the NL Central has relatively high hopes. The Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals all see themselves as World Series contenders, and the Pirates and Reds have made much progress on filling out their rosters. With five solid teams, these teams could end up beating up on each other, and in that case, I like the new-look Cardinals to come out on top. 

Ben Rolfe: Chicago Cubs

The Brewers and Cardinals are both really good teams and this should be a tight race right down to the wire. However, the Cubs have the raw talent on offense and the best rotation in the division, which should be enough to see them avoid another miserable October on the sidelines.

Mike Quilty: St. Louis Cardinals

I’m a big fan of Paul Goldschmidt as you know if you read our last predictions. The Cardinals added him to a decent lineup that already has Matt Carpenter, who should make a great 1-2 punch with Goldschmidt. Last year they struggled with the pen, but I think Andrew Miller should bounce back in 2019.

National League West

Thom Howland: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dave Roberts sits his best power hitters in the World Series, but the analytical acolytes will continue to dominate the regular season. Stripling and Buehler make Kershaw’s continuing slow downward trend palatable in the starting rotation. That lineup is among the deepest in the game and Kenley Jansen leads a strong bullpen.

Scott Frizzell: Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s hard to see the Dodgers relinquishing their crown. Kershaw has started to have injury problems and miss time, but Walker Buehler is a burgeoning ace. They have a good rotation and go deeper than any team in baseball with good options in case of injury.

John Principe: Los Angeles Dodgers

Possibly the easiest division to pick, the LA Dodgers won’t see a whole lot of competition. To me, Arizona clearly took a step back, and Colorado is a large candidate to do so as well. The Padres added Machado, but their rotation has no chance of competing for a division title. This leaves just San Francisco as the only possible rival for the Dodgers to win the division. The Giants haven’t made themselves much better than last year which leads me to believe the Dodgers should win this by double digit games.

Ben Rolfe: Colorado Rockies

The prevailing feeling I have seen is that this is the Dodgers division to lose. Well the Rockies will have something to say about that. Their rotation is going to have rough stretches pitching in Coors, but led by Blackmon, Arenado, Murphy and Story they can upset the Dodgers and put a spanner in their plans for a third World Series.

Mike Quilty: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have won this division every year since 2013 and I don’t see that changing this year. Even with the big name departures I think LA will look to make a run for a third straight trip to the World Series.

National League Wild Cards

Thom Howland: Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies

Harper will finally top 40 homers for the first time since 2015, and they have a good staff led by Aaron Nola, but their lineup otherwise will probably have some regression. I think they’re a touch behind the Nats. Bud Black will bring out the best in an exciting starting staff for the Rockies.  Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Jon Gray could push the Nationals for the best starters in the NL and the lineup has a few MVP candidates in Arenado, Blackmon and Trevor Story.  If the bullpen holds up, this is a playoff team.

Scott Frizzell: Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals

The Brewers have one of the best lineups in the Majors. Their rotation could use a top arm and their defense might be lacking, but they did add a couple young pitchers with upside to their rotation. As for the Nationals, they lost Harper, but Soto looks like one of the best young hitters in the game. Their rotation got deeper with the addition of Corbin, this team will still win games.

John Principe: Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers

Even more clogged than the AL side, teams in contention who I don’t have winning divisions include the Nationals, Braves, Mets, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Reds, Rockies and Giants. There are clearly four or five teams of that bunch a little closer to the playoffs, and two of those, the Nats and Brewers, stand out to me as teams who I see absolutely making the playoffs.

Ben Rolfe: Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers

Both of these teams just have more talent and depth across their roster than the other contenders. The Braves, Brewers, Cardinals and Nationals will all push them hard in what could be an amazing nine horse race for playoff spots in the NL.

Mike Quilty: Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs

Atlanta added former MVP Josh Donaldson and reunited with Brian McCann. With a number of young talented pitching prospects, Atlanta’s looking to get back on top. My second pick is the Chicago Cubs, who I have making a run this year after losing the WC game last year at home. I think this team along with Joe Maddon will be hungry to atone for last year.

World Series

Thom Howland: Red Sox over Nationals in 6 games

The Red Sox go back-to-back with a healthy Sale, a much better playoff performance from Mookie, and too much playoff experience up and down the lineup. The Nationals starters push the Sox to six games, but they won’t have enough in the end.

Scott Frizzell: Astros over Nationals in five games

The Astros will take back the American League over the Red Sox in the ALCS. The Nationals, with their deep rotation, will finally come out of the NL despite being a Wild Card. However, the Astros lineup should be much better and they have the pitching to match.

John Principe: Phillies over Astros in six games

Despite making their second trip in three years, I expect the Astros to encounter issues when it comes to Philly. The Phillies lineup is one of the only ones to rival Houston’s, and to me, Philly’s rotation gets it done more than Houston’s. Phillies win a World Series in Bryce’s first season.

Ben Rolfe: Cubs over Astros in six games

The Cubs ensure that fans do not have to wait a long time to see a second title. Heartbreak for the Astros but they once again demonstrate they are the class of a very top heavy American League.

Mike Quilty: Red Sox over Dodgers

I have the Sox repeating in a rematch of last year. Boston has too much talent defensively with a great rotation and stacked lineup to lose to the Dodgers. Boston will figure out the closer situation and will be off to the races again in 2019. The Dodgers will make it back to the World Series for the third straight year, trying to win it all for the first time since 1988, but will ultimately fall short to Boston as they did in 2018.

The Boston Red Sox Are Your 2018 AL Champs

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A few rapid reactions to the Red Sox winning the pennant for the first time since 2013, right after I finish the most embarrassing poster in the history of signage…

More than anything else, this has been a season about silencing the haters and doubters. The Red Sox won back to back AL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but only had a single playoff win to show for it. Mookie Betts followed up an MVP runner-up season with a step back last year. Jackie Bradley Jr is a killer outfielder who couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Alex Cora was a first year manager taking over the team with baseball’s largest payroll. David Price had more than enough demons to deal with. JD Martinez was a premier free agent signing, but he wasn’t Giancarlo Stanton. And that’s just scratching the surface.

The list of question marks entering this season seemed endless.The Sox responded for seven months with nothing but definitive, defiant, and resounding answers en route to a franchise record 108 wins. Even so, the questions started creeping in once more after a tough game loss to the Astros. Boston rose to the challenge yet again.

On Thursday night, the Red Sox won their 115th game of the season to punch their ticket to the World Series, beating the defending champs in 5 games. Any questions anyone had about this team has been officially rendered moot.

David Price Steps Up

Game 5’s story starts with David Price. With Chris Sale sidelined an extra game with a stomach illness, and the bullpen taxed to the limit, Boston needed their most expensive player to come through. Price, finally and triumphantly, delivered.

The left-hander tossed 6 shutout innings, allowing only three hits and striking out 9. He had all his pitches working, and located them with ease.

Price has gotten so much flak for his past postseason struggles, but he absolutely rose to the challenge in a huge spot last night. As John Lackey can attest, the quickest way to win over Red Sox Nation is to win in October. It looks like Price is well on his way to doing just that.

Devers and Martinez Go Yard

JD Martinez got the Sox going in the top of the 3rd with this absolute ROCKET to left field:

Martinez was 1-11 through the first three games of this series, but he turned it on in Games 4 and 5, going 4-7 with a HR and a pair of RBI. If he can keep it going through the World Series, the Brewers or Dodgers will be in trouble.

The difference in this one was a 3-run Devers dinger in the top of the 6th.

Remember earlier in this postseason when Eduardo Nunez was the starting third baseman? Yeah, me neither. Devers continues to be clutch in the playoffs. Some quick stats floating around during the game last night:

  • Devers has joined the short list of players with 3+ postseason homers before their 22nd birthday. The other names on the list: Mickey Mantle, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, and Andruw Jones.
  • Devers is now tied with Miguel Cabrera for second-most postseason RBI by players 21 or younger.
  • Here’s Raffy’s line through 10 playoff games: 36 PA, .354/.417/.645, 3 HR, 12 RBI.

I’m starting to think this kid might have a bright future ahead of him.

Jackie Bradley Jr: ALCS MVP

That’s right, Jackie Bradley Jr. was the most valuable player in this series. He only had 3 hits in 17 at-bats, but he made each one count. His 9 RBI were a series high, and the Sox absolutely could not have done it without him. Bradley has often been a divisive player, whose defensive prowess is consistently at odds with his lack of offensive consistency. But, he’s the longest tenured everyday player on the roster, and it’s awesome to see him have his moment in the postseason.

Other Observations

  • What a sick twist of fate that Game 4’s controversial fan interference call was essentially erased by an almost identical play by Betts last night. If you needed any more evidence that the Curse of the Bambino is long gone, look no further.
  • Alex Bregman probably regrets logging into Instagram before Game 3, huh? Price wasn’t about to let him forget it, either. Good news is the Astros third baseman will have plenty of time to mull things over this winter.
  • Cora was occasionally unconventional, and occasionally left me scratching my head over some of his choices. None of it mattered. He’s pushed just about every right button through the first two rounds of postseason play.
  • Nathan Eovaldi has been nails all postseason. He came up big yet again with four outs late in this one, to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel in the 9th. For all of the chatter about Dave Dombrowski’s inability to address the bullpen midseason, he absolutely crushed the Eovaldi and Steve Pearce acquisitions.
  • Craig Kimbrel wasn’t perfect, but he looked better than he has in weeks. Hopefully that’s a sign he’s coming out of this funk.
  • Here’s Andrew Benintendi’s game-winning catch from Game 4 again, because I can’t stop watching it.
  • The Red Sox have 4 more wins to go before winning their 4th championship in 15 seasons. October 23rd can’t come soon enough. For now, time to celebrate. What a night, what a series, what a win.

What to Do with Craig Kimbrel

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Another night; another heart attack brought on by Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but another win. This has become commonplace in close Red Sox victories this postseason, as Kimbrel has been a disaster on the mound, but has ultimately finished out each game successfully; somehow.

Kimbrel appears to be a disaster waiting to happen, so what should the Red Sox do with him moving forward?

Pitch Him In Lower Leverage Situation

I think Kimbrel needs to be taken out of the closer role, at least temporarily. He absolutely cannot be trusted right now. Even if the next game is close, I would use other pitchers in the late innings.

If there is an opportunity in the near future to pitch Kimbrel in a game that isn’t very close, the Red Sox should take it. I’m not sure if nerves are playing a factor, they likely are, but Kimbrel can barely find the strike zone.

Maybe working in a lower leverage spot Kimbrel can find the strike zone. Maybe he won’t be able to, but you can’t have a guy throwing ball after ball trying to close out games.

There have been multiple times this postseason where Kimbrel has been brought on to protect a three-run lead and hasn’t thrown strikes. In that situation, the only goal is to throw strikes; a home run can’t beat you, throw the ball over the plate and make them work for it. Kimbrel has been giving the opposition baserunners without much fight.

Kimbrel’s Struggles

Craig Kimbrel has pitched in four games this postseason and allowed the opposition to score in all four. Just let that sink in for a moment.

His ERA is standing at 8.44 after last night and he has put 13 baserunners on in only 5.1 innings pitched. 13! Kimbrel has walked five batters and hit two as he struggles to locate his pitches. On numerous occasions he has yanked his fastball, missing so far outside the catcher is left reaching as far as he can to corral it. Other times, his breaking ball is a wild pitch waiting to happen. He has been playing with fire and somehow has yet to be fully burned. It’s only a matter of time if something is not done.

In game four of the ALDS, pitching with a three run lead, Kimbrel walked two batters and hit another. He threw 28 pitches to get three outs, less than half of them going for strikes. He came about as close to blowing that game as one could without actually blowing it.

His next outing he gave up back-to-back two out hits before a fly ball from Alex Bregman nearly tied the game.

Last night was another heart attack, walking three batters and hitting another. He faced 11 batters to close out the three run lead. Kimbrel has now thrown a whopping 101 pitches in his four postseason appearances. And then there is this:

Other Options

Despite everyone being worried about the Red Sox bullpen entering the postseason, Kimbrel has been the problem. Others have pitched very well, excluding Brandon Workman. Workman shouldn’t pitch unless the game is a blowout, he’s the only guy that’s been worse than Kimbrel.

Ryan Brasier struggled in his first postseason appearance but did not allow a run. He seemed to have cleared his postseason jitters with that performance because he has been nails since. Brasier is up to seven scoreless innings over seven appearances.

Matt Barnes has also come up big, netting a big strike out looking to end the seventh last night. Barnes has now thrown 5.2 shutout innings over six appearances this postseason. These are currently the Sox two most trustworthy relievers, like it or not. At least for now, they should be getting the highest leverage spots.

In addition to them, others are also performing well. Heath Hembree has thrown 3.2 shutout innings, albeit not in any tight spots. Joe Kelly has stepped up his game, showing the good side of his pitching. Kelly has allowed one run over 5.1 innings without issuing a walk. The strike throwing is refreshing.

Ideally Kimbrel is the ninth inning guy; he’s been doing it a long time and it helps set up the bullpen better. But for the moment, he can not be trusted with the way he is throwing, and the Red Sox need to try someone else.

3 Up, 3 Down From ALCS Games 1-3

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The Red Sox nudged ahead in the race for the AL pennant on Tuesday night, beating the Astros 8-2 to take a 2-1 series lead. There’s been plenty of good and bad from the Sox through three games so far. Let’s dive in.

3 Up

Jackie Bradley Jr. – Let’s kick things off with the biggest story from Game 3. With 2 outs in the top of the eighth, and the Sox clinging to a 4-2 lead, Roberto Osuna tried to sneak a fastball by JBJ. Bradley launched that pitch into orbit:

Bradley Jr. now has 7 RBIs in 3 games in the ALCS. For comparison, David Ortiz had 11 RBIs in 7 games in 2004. The Red Sox centerfielder only has two hits this series, but he’s made them count.

Any offense from Bradley Jr. is a welcome bonus, of course. But, it’s great to see him have a postseason moment after a strong finish to the regular season (.282/.349/.501 after June 23rd).

Steve Pearce – Prior to JBJ’s Grandest Slammy in the 8th, the biggest moment of Game 3 was Steve Pearce wrapping a shot around the left field foul pole to give the Red Sox a 3-2 lead in the 6th.

I’ve said it before, but this guy has been a game-changing pickup for Boston. Mitch Moreland has been sidelined by a sore hamstring, and Pearce has just taken over. The 35 year old utility man has hit .304 this postseason, and provided excellent defense at first base to boot. Moreland has been the guy at that corner for most of the season, but Alex Cora has been rewarded for riding the hot bat/glove.

Red Sox Bullpen – Is the Boston bullpen actually…good? In 12.1 innings this series, Sox relievers have posted a 3.66 ERA. That includes Brandon Workman’s Game 1 implosion. Otherwise, they’ve been damn near shutdown. That’s huge, considering how big of a weak spot that aspect of the team appeared to be coming into the playoffs.

I wrote in September that the Sox could win in October without a dominant bullpen. It seems like they’re holding up their end of the bargain, so far.

3 Down

JD Martinez – Martinez drove in the first run of Game 3 with an RBI double down the right field line. Outside of that, he’s been a complete non-factor. Martinez has mustered only 1 hit in 11 ABs, and has only reached base an additional 2 times. The Astros have been feeding him a steady diet of low and away breaking balls, and it’s working so far.

If the Red Sox plan on closing this series out, they’ll likely need their anchor to come through in a big spot. We’ll see if he can snap out of this funk.

Postseason Price – Good news: a Major League Baseball team won a postseason game started by David Price. Bad news: David Price still didn’t get the win, after getting pulled from Boston’s Game 2 victory midway through the 5th inning.

I’m not going to re-tread tired ground too much here, but it continues to amaze me that a pitcher with so much success continues to bring next to no value in the postseason. As of now, the Sox will be turning to Price in Game 6 (if necessary). That is still a frightening prospect.

Third Base Defense – This is turning into a black hole. Cora keeps throwing Eduardo Nunez into the mix, and Nunez continues to misplay ground balls and terrify all of New England.

Rafael Devers has gotten some run as well at the hot corner, and has at least hit the ball. Unfortunately, he’s not exactly Brooks Robinson in the field either. That reality reared its ugly head during the bottom of the 5th:

Not helping matters is Alex Bregman vacuuming up anything that moves on the other end. Fingers crossed that Boston’s third base defense doesn’t end up costing them too much in the end.

Rick Porcello takes the mound against Charlie Morton in Game 4 tonight. Porcello has been gutsy as hell this October. Another big time performance will give the Sox a commanding lead in this series.

Why David Price Has Earned Another Start

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Much has been made over the years, into this postseason, about David Price. It goes without saying that he hasn’t been Sandy Koufax or Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs. However, there were many elements of Sunday night’s start that provide us with signs that Price has turned a corner. For the first time in his career, his team won a game that he started. It goes deeper than that, from pitching out of jams to limiting damage.

Game Two:

Last night, David Price wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough. The walks were a little concerning, but the overall perseverance of Price was enough to earn him another start in a potential game six. The line isn’t gorgeous, four runs on four walks and five hits, but it did the trick. The bullpen did its job like I tried to tell you all before. The Sox won, which is obviously the priority, and Price showed progress in his ability to pitch in October.

Looking at the four runs, they came on two big hits. One came in the second off the bat of George Springer, and another in the third from Marwin Gonzalez. Both were strikes, yes, but neither were bad pitches by any means. Springer was able to swing inside out and just tuck one over Steve Pearce‘s head. With two outs in the inning, both runners were able to score easily, but that was an at-bat that easily could’ve gone Price’s way. When it comes to the Gonzalez home run, again, it wasn’t a bad pitch at all. In fact, the entire at-bat was well calculated and executed. The Astros slugger was just able to get his hands around on a tough pitch up and in and he drove it. Neither pitch that was costing of runs was a bad pitch, just a better swing.

Looking Ahead to Price in Game 6:

So, with everything considered, I believe Price actually pitched very well. If it were anybody else besides Gonzalez that came to the plate in the fifth, he would’ve stayed in the game. In all likelihood, he would’ve been in position for his first career postseason win as a starter. Alex Cora made the right decision matchup-wise, but David’s stuff was good enough for him to pitch another inning.

Going forward, Price deserves another start and he will deliver in the said start. He was very reliant on his fastball and seemed to shy away from the changeup. If he can gain some traction when it comes to throwing that changeup, he could really stifle this gritty Astros lineup. Barring a three-game sweep of the games in Houston, Price will start the biggest game of his career, a game six at Fenway Park in an elimination game. David Price has earned it, and he will come through again for this team.

The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

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Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

Astros Are a Big Test for the Red Sox

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Red Sox vs. Astros

Alex Cora returned to Houston last night for the first time since becoming the manager for the Boston Red Sox. Lately, the competition for the Red Sox has been pretty bad, and the Red Sox have been taking advantage of it. The Red Sox took care of business this week sweeping the no-name Toronto  Blue Jays. The real test begins with this series against the defending World Series Champions. The Sox fell 6-4 last night in the first of the four games.

J.D. Martinez is on Fire

J.D. Martinez has been on fire lately. He has belted 18 home runs on the season for the Red Sox thus far. Drew Pomeranz, who has struggled lately pitched last night for Boston. Alex Cora seems to still have confidence in the left-handed pitcher.

Tonight, Chris Sale is pitching, and the Red Sox seem to not be able to hit still when he’s on the mound. On Saturday, David Price will pitch. He had some interesting comments the other day, saying. “I’m the softest guy in this clubhouse. If it bothered me, I’d be out of the game. I’m soft. … It wasn’t painful. I’m fine. If it was painful, I would have come out.” He was referring to when he was hit by a line drive in the first inning on Monday.

Rick Porcello will make an appearance during the final game of this series on Sunday. Porcello so far this season is  7-2 with a 3.65 ERA. Against Toronto he pitched six innings and allowed just five hits and two runs. The real test begins this weekend, when the Sox can show they are a contender in the American League.

Previewing the Sox: 5/28-6/3

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The previous week (5/20-5/27) for the Red Sox has been an encouraging one to say the least. They took two out of three from the Tampa Bay Rays and the first place (at the time) Atlanta Braves. The offensive player of the week is Andrew Benintendi (.353/.455/.824, 1.278 OPS, 223 wRC+). The pitcher of the week is Eduardo Rodriguez, who got two wins while posting up a 1.59 ERA with 14 strikeouts, three walks and two earned runs. This is evidence of two players who needed to have a great week like this. Will these performances kick-start the players into performing at a better rate? Only time will tell.

Glancing Ahead

Looking ahead to this week, the Sox play the Toronto Blue Jays at home for three games, and then travel to Houston for a four game showdown with the Astros. The Astros split their four game series with the Cleveland Indians, and will also be playing the Yankees for the first three game series of this week. Focusing on the Astros series, the probable pitchers look to be Pomeranz, Sale, Price, and Porcello. For the Astros, it looks to be McCullers Jr., Cole, Verlander, and Morton. The Sox seem to be facing the best of the best as both Verlander and Cole are ranked first and second in ERA in the American League (1.08 and 1.86 respectively). Also, George Springer and Alex Bregman are doing quite well in the month of May. Springer posting a .341/.383/.557 slash with a .940 OPS and Bregman with a .282/.396/.529/.940 line.
The Sox offense really needs to step up more than ever against Houston. The Astros, as a team, throw 43.9% of their pitches in the strike zone, and have the highest swinging strike percentage in the majors (12.6%). The Houston bullpen should not be undermined, as they have one of the lowest contact percentages in the majors (73.6%). They also have a 2.63 ERA, which is ranked third in baseball. All in all, this Astros pitching staff is no joke since they have the highest strikeout rates, along with a top 5 walk rate and a miniscule 0.86 HR/9 figure. The Sox need to be aggressive in the zone and attack early, because there is not a whole lot of relief once the opposing starters exit. Of course, there is the obvious payback feeling for being booted in the ALDS against this same Astros team. But here’s a catch: Alex Cora is leading the charge. He was on A.J. Hinch’s World Series winning coaching staff last year, which will prove to be an advantage. This series will be epic.

Notes for the week:

  • David Price has a career 1.088 WHIP with a 2.92 ERA while playing indoors (like Minute Maid Park).
  • The Astros lead the league in overall run differential, however Houston has a pedestrian +34 differential at home for the season.
  • The Sox will need Mookie Betts back in order to contend with the Astros this weekend. Don’t be shocked if Mookie misses the next few days.
  • The Red Sox have a 3.04 ERA as a team when playing away and the Astros have a 2.63 ERA when playing at home.
  • The Astros have a .235 batting average as a team when playing at Minute Maid park this season. The Sox have a .248 average when on the road.

This upcoming series with the defending champions is going to be a crazy experience. Don’t miss it.

@ELJGON

The Hunt for a Better Bullpen

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If you watched Red Sox baseball this past week, you should have seen a trend forming. All week great starting pitching was followed by the bullpen crapping themselves. The stats in the last seven days can support this claim, as Sox starters have had a 3.11 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Sox relievers have had a 6.06 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. This has been frustrating to watch and almost makes us forget about Jackie Bradley Jr.’s woes at the plate.

Better Numbers are Ahead

The full season’s numbers don’t paint the same story, however. Sox relievers in the entire season have posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Starters also going on to average 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Clearly, we can justify this by saying the obvious: The Red Sox bullpen had a bad week. They were not clutch and they did not throw quality strikes. More was expected from this quality pitching staff.

The only way from here is up and the quality is ahead of us, folks. We have seen this bullpen do tremendous things when they try. Carson Smith is finally turning the corner, posting a 1.04 ERA in the last 28 days (11 games) with 12 strikeouts and one earned run. In the same sample size, Joe Kelly has posted a 0.77 ERA with 16 strikeouts and one earned run.

Reinforcements are Incoming

Don’t forget, more help is on the way. Tyler Thornburg is set to begin his rehab assignment in Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday 5/14. Steven Wright is also slated to join the Sox on the same day. A much needed depth will be added to this bullpen, but what can we expect from the two? Thornburg hasn’t pitched in a major league baseball game since 2016. Even then, I’m sure Cora will be using him sparingly since he’s apparently made of glass. Even Wright, who has recovered fully from his left knee injury and served his 15 game suspension for domestic violence, will be a mixed bag of results.

Also, at some point, Bobby Poyner should be getting called back up as well. Poyner posted a 2.25 ERA in seven regular season games with the Sox, and even has a 1.42 ERA in six games with the PawSox. If anybody outside of Brian Johnson slips up, expect to see Poyner in the big league bullpen for the majority of the season.

Dealin’ Dave at it Again?

What if this all doesn’t pan out the way we expect? There will be trade activity around the time of the deadline (or even sooner) and the Red Sox will be involved one way or another. Kelvin Herrera and Jeurys Familia are two names that will probably finish the 2018 season with a different team and are two pieces that can really bring a bullpen to the next level. Yes, both are closers and both are eligible for free agency in 2019, so they would be rentals. However, the Sox obviously wouldn’t dare move Craig Kimbrel from his job in the pen.

The Mets and the Royals both seem to be trending downward quickly and I would be shocked if they were playoff contenders this season. Also, both teams could use an outfielder which could potentially prompt a JBJ trade. Familia is known for his sinker which averages at 97 mph and Herrera for his 89 mph changeup. Also, they have been in the spotlight before as they actually faced each other in the 2015 World Series. That last part is something the Sox bullpen lacks: clutch factor.

Overall, these two players will find another home this season acting as rentals. The New York Yankees are also in the same boat as the Red Sox for the fact that their bullpen hasn’t been the best either. Also, going off of last year, the Astros bullpen may not be the best as well. All in all, the Sox won’t be alone when it comes to bolstering their relief pitchers, but hopefully this bad week has been a wake up call to the front office.

@ELJGON