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Should Roger Clemens Make the Hall of Fame?

Scott’s Argument Supporting Clemens

Clemens clearly used after leaving the Red Sox so his stats and awards are greatly inflated by the help of foreign substances. Over his final four seasons with the Red Sox he had a 3.77 ERA and 8.7 k/9. In the next two seasons he had a 2.33 ERA and 10.2 k/9. He was 34 years old in 1997 and struck out a career high in batters. I mean, come on. There is no argument about what he did. The argument comes over what to do with him and the others. Honestly, there is no wrong answer, and that is the problem. It is an individual’s opinion over how to treat steroid users, and many people have differing opinions. As a result, guys like Clemens and Barry Bonds have been stuck in ballot purgatory.

Steroids

Steroids very clearly affect statistics in a huge way. Two people have ever hit 60 home runs in a season, and then it happened six times in four years during the height of the steroid era. It hasn’t been done since. The record book was left in shambles. It’s a shame. All of these players have better stats due to using, but some of them were Hall of Famers anyways, and that’s where my argument for Clemens (and some others) comes into play. I could care less about the character clause quite frankly. The Hall of Fame should be a place to celebrate the greatest players to play the game, everyone has faults.

Pre-Steroid Accomplishments

With 192 wins after 1996, Clemens’ win total wouldn’t have screamed Hall of Fame. At 34 he would have still pitched for a couple more seasons and gotten to maybe 220-230 wins? But that’s not the case for him. Clemens was already a three time Cy Young Award winner and an MVP winner by this time. Three Cy Young’s and an MVP get you in the Hall. He had led the league in wins twice, ERA four times, and strike outs three times. He also had two different games during which he had struck out 20 batters. No one else had ever accomplished this at the time. His career strikeout total still would have eclipsed 3000 and placed him in the top 15 of all-time in that category. If he had never touched anything and just played out what was left of his career naturally, he’d be enshrined. That is why I would vote for him.

 

Mike’s Argument Against Clemens

Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher in Red Sox history. He should not, however, be in the Hall of Fame. Clemens is, as much as Mark McGwire or Barry Bonds, the poster child for the steroid era of baseball.

It is commonly accepted that the Rocket began taking steroids after leaving the Red Sox following the 1996 season. He was so offended by then-GM Dan Duquette’s “twilight of his career” speech that he committed himself to proving everyone wrong.

Like Bonds, many people will argue that the Rocket was a hall of fame pitcher before he left Boston. His 13 seasons with the Sox were indeed excellent and at least borderline for the hall. He finished with 192 wins, an ERA of 3.06, 2,590 Ks, three Cy Young awards and a league MVP.

In 11 seasons after leaving Boston, between the ages of 34 and 44, Roger compiled 162 wins, 73 losses, a 2.91 ERA, 2,082 Ks, and four more Cy Young Awards. A 2.91 ERA. Most telling about the immediate positive impact that steroids had on Clemens is the fact that in his final year in Boston he was 10-13 with a 3.63 ERA and 257 Ks. In his two seasons in Toronto, he went 41-13 with an ERA of 2.33 and averaged 281 Ks. He won the Cy Young both years.

Great Pitcher, Bad Guy

Source for the picture: https://sportanalyst.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/gal_front_12_14-745624.jpg

Clemens was more than just a juicer. He was a bad guy who in the second half of his career folded like a lawn chair in some of the biggest moments. In The Yankee Years, Joe Torre explained in detail Roger’s diva nature, his feigning of injuries when he was getting shelled in games, and his relationship with Brian McNamee.

Clemens not only took steroids for the better half of his career, he lied to Congress about it. The Rocket’s defenders argue that Clemens was found not guilty of perjury and that McNamee was a slime-ball witness trying to become famous. But nobody with any intellectual integrity believes that Clemens competed clean.

Roger Clemens was a great pitcher. He was a better science experiment. Everyone recognizes that this rocket was fueled by HGH, Winstrol, and litany of chemicals to extend and enhance his career. The question for Cooperstown voters is simply: do you care?

I believe that they do not. Clemens will eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame. That said, you cannot allow Roger Clemens and others like him in the Hall without opening the doors to guys like McGwire, Manny, A-Rod, and others. Voters cannot hide behind the façade of the Hall’s “character clause” to exclude players they don’t like while inducting cheaters like Roger Clemens.

Anyone interested in the real Roger Clemens, beyond the impressive stat line, should read American Icon: The Fall of Roger Clemens and the Rise of Steroids in America’s Pastime. This well-documented book by the New York Daily News Sports Investigative Team, published in 2009, puts his career and the entire steroid era into the proper perspective.

Manfred’s Reasoning for Delayed Suspension of Gurriel Full of Errors

In the 2nd inning of Friday night’s World Series match-up, Houston slugger Yuli Gurriel decimated a Yu Darvish pitch, sending a juiced Rawlings baseball careening down the left field line of Minute Maid Park. Upon arriving back to the dugout, fresh from a trek around the bases that gave Houston a 1-0 lead, Gurriel decided some good ol’ fashioned racism was in order!

Minutes later, cameras pointed in the direction of the latest World Series “hero” caught Gurriel making an inappropriate gesture directed at Dodgers starting pitcher, Yu Darvish. He would later admit to spewing a discriminatory remark as well.

Honestly, I don’t see how anyone can interpret Gurriel’s response as being anything other than racist.

Manfred Responds

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This afternoon, Major League Baseball commissioner, Rob Manfred, announced that Yuli Gurriel has been suspended without pay for the first five games of the 2018 season. Yes, you read that correctly. While Gurriel will be rightfully suspended for his blatant act of racism, he won’t have to serve his punishment until next season.

Why? Great question!

Manfred, speaking in front of the media prior to this evening’s Game 4, said now was not the appropriate time to suspend Gurriel.

“Mr. Gurriel will be suspended for five games without pay. During the offseason he will be required to undergo sensitivity training, and the Houston Astros in a gesture of support, have agreed to donate the foregone salary to charitable causes,” Manfred dished during his press conference.

Commissioner Manfred went on to say that, for 4 reasons, he is delaying the suspension until the start of the 2018 season.

Let’s take a closer look at these four reasons and discuss their validity, shall we?

Reason 1: “First of all, I felt it was important that the suspension carry with it the penalty of lost salary.”

Wait, so the players aren’t paid for these World Series games?

Oh, that’s right. They do get paid. In fact, they get paid very well actually.

Each player on last year’s World Series winning Cubs team earned $368,871.59. The Cleveland Indians, runners-up in the 2016 Fall Classic, saw each of their players receive a bonus of $261,804.65.

With those figures in mind, let’s examine Yuli Gurriel’s 2018 projected salary.

According to Baseball Reference, Gurriel is due 12.4 million dollars next season.

Assuming that cap figure is correct, the Houston slugger stands to lose approximately $382,716 during his upcoming five-game suspension.

While I’ll concede that the amount of money Gurriel will lose next year exceeds any bonus he will earn for appearing in the World Series, I’m hard pressed to believe your average fan cares. I know I don’t. Gurriel, along with his 47.5 million dollar contract, doesn’t care either.

It’s not about the money, Mr. Manfred.

It’s about accountability for one’s actions. It’s about standing up for what’s right. The league should have suspended Gurriel for the remainder of the series while also withholding his World Series bonus.

Final Ruling on Reason #1: ERROR

Reason # 2: “I felt it was unfair to punish the other 24 players on the Astros roster. I wanted the burden of this discipline to fall primarily on the wrongdoer.”

Oh, I find this reason for Gurriel’s delayed suspension to be the most egregious of them all.

It’s unfair to punish the other 24 players on the Houston roster by having a key player sit?

It’s a team sport! Don’t we teach children that we win and lose as a team? That we don’t point fingers at individuals for game-related grievances?  As Bill Belichick continually preaches, it’s up to the players to “do their jobs” each and every game. If they fail to do their job, then the team sinks.

Well, my friends, Gurriel failed to do his job last night. He failed to be a decent human being, role model and professional. Yuli Gurriel deserved to suffer the consequences and so did his team.

Final Ruling on Reason #2: ERROR

Reason # 3: “I was impressed in my conversation with Yu Darvish by his desire to move forward, and I felt that moving the suspension to the beginning of the season would help in that regard.”

I have no doubt that Yu Darvish was nothing but respectful in the aforementioned conversation. I’m also sure that he does, in fact, wish to move forward. But how exactly does waiting six months help “in that regard?”  This will continue to be an issue that Darvish, and Gurriel for that matter, will be asked about throughout the offseason and into spring training.

The league would not have to worry about such questions leading up to next season if they had simply chosen to do the right thing today.

Final Ruling on Reason # 3: ERROR

Reason # 4: “Last, when I originally began thinking about the discipline, I thought that delaying the suspension would allow the player the opportunity to exercise his rights under the grievance procedure. It now appears, and I have every expectation, that he will not be exercising those rights.”

Well, as a general supporter in unions, I can see where Manfred is coming from here. However, his wording is too formulaic for my liking. It’s nothing more than a justification to a cowardly decision thanks to the language found in the current CBA.

Do you think the players’ union would have put their necks on the line to defend a blatant display of racism that was caught on camera and displayed to an audience that garnered a 10.4 overnight rating (16% lower than last year’s Game 3, by the way)? Given the public’s harsh response to Gurriel’s idiocy, it would have been a PR nightmare.

I don’t buy it, Mr. Manfred.

Final Ruling on Reason # 4: ERROR

Deep down, Manfred knows that he would have likely succeeded in banning Gurriel for the rest of the series. He’s also aware that it would have been an unprecedented decision and one that would’ve attracted a lot of negative attention toward the league. By postponing Gurriel’s ban, Manfred must believe that he’s splitting the difference and placating to all parties involved.

Well, from this fan’s perspective, he’s wrong. Now Gurriel, and the Astros, stand to reap the benefits of the commissioner’s cowardly call.

Strengths and Weaknesses of ALCS Teams

2017 MLB Postseason

The playoffs are off to a thrilling start. We have already witnessed two ALDS series go the distance. Baseball fans have already been blessed with shocking upsets and dramatic comebacks. Perhaps the most shocking occurrence is the Yankees. Having knocked out the world series favorite Cleveland Indians, many are shocked to see the Yankees in the playoffs, let alone advancing the the ALCS. The Bronx Bombers will compete with the Astros to advance to the World Series. Over in the NL we have a great match up between the defending world champion Chicago Cubs and the best regular season team, the LA Dodgers.

New York Yankees

Strengths

As a long time Red Sox fan, it pains me to say the Yankees are onto the ALCS. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and their fans are forced to sit at home and watch. I must give credit where it is due, and the Yankees deserve a lot. They entered the season with low expectations. They have taken the league by storm this year, leaving their fans both surprised and ecstatic. This team has a great offense, solid starting rotation and a tremendously talented and deep bullpen. I think their greatest asset lies elsewhere– this team has collective mental toughness. They trailed the best team in baseball 2-0, and the game 2 loss was not pretty. It was impressive to see a young team come back to win 3 straight against a talented and well coached team. Props to the young guys of the Yankees for not hanging their heads and giving up after game 2.

Weaknesses

This team seems well-rounded, without any glaring weaknesses. I am still skeptical of their pitching staff. They lack a true ace. Tanaka has filled the role in previous years, but has been inconsistent this year. He was dominant in his lone start this postseason, throwing 7 innings and giving up just 3 hits and 0 runs. Sabathia has pitched well most of the year, but simply is not the guy he once was. Severino had a great year, but lacks playoff experience. He was knocked around in one of his two starts. Sonny Gray is clearly a talented pitcher, but has yet to string together multiple strong outings since becoming a Yankee. Luckily this rotation is backed by one of the strongest bullpens imaginable. The other weakness I see in this team is their ability to win on the road. The Yankees were 40-41 away from Yankee Stadium this year. It is going to be tough to win a best of seven series if they cannot win some road games.

 

Houston Astros

Strengths

This team is strong inevery relevant category. Their strength is simply winning baseball games with a dominant offense. There is not a flaw in this teams lineup. This team has top of the order hitters 1-9. Houston lead the MLB in batting average, runs scored, doubles, total bases, OBP, SLG, OPS  and were second in home runs. This is one of the best offenses in the history of the MLB. It is not just the power numbers that are impressive for this team, Houston’s batters had the fewest strikeouts in the league this year and stole the eighth most bases. The Astros could very well ride their dynamic offense to a world series title. They  have a very strong pitching staff lead by Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander. There is some serious depth to this pitching staff as well. After their top two, they have Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton, three very reliable guys. This team will be a daunting task for the Yankees.

Weaknesses

This team does not have any real weaknesses, save for one–their sub par bullpen. Houston’s pen ranked 17th in the MLB with a 4.27 ERA. However, Houston rarely has to rely on their bullpen thanks to their offense often giving them comfortable leads. The Astros played very well down the stretch, and continued their success into the ALDS series against the Red Sox. They do not a have a real weakness for the Yankees to expose. New York will simply have to out-slug Houston if they want to move onto the world series.

 

Hot Date in Houston for the Sox

Red Sox seek redemption in the 2017 ALDS

Well the Sox just ended the regular season with a four-game series against the Houston Astros. Houston grabbed three of four from the Sox in Fenway. Now, starting Thursday at 4 pm ET, these two clubs meet again for at least three more contests in the ALDS. The Astros won this years season series 4-3 and outscored Boston 35-22 in those seven games. Houston may appear to have an edge, but we all know the MLB playoffs are a crap-shoot.

Houston certainly has the better offense, ranking first in the AL in runs scored with 896. Boston scored 785, not nearly as many as Houston, but still good for sixth in the AL. The Red Sox pitching staff has an edge over Houston with the team ERA for the year standing at 3.70. Houston’s team ERA stands significantly higher at 4.12. While both teams have similarly talented starting rotations, the pitching advantage for Boston comes from their phenomenal bullpen. The Sox ranked 2nd in the majors this year with a 3.15 bullpen ERA. Houston’s bullpen was far worse, with a 4.27 ERA which ranked them 17th in the majors.

ALDS Game 1- Sale vs Verlander

Image result for chris sale

Mouths water over this exquisite pitching match up. Sale and Verlander are undoubtedly two of the very best pitchers in baseball. Sale has the better ERA (2.90) but Verlander comes into the playoffs as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The Sox lefty threw an MLB-leading 214.1 innings this year. Verlander racked up the innings as well with 206. It appears Verlander may have handled the physical stress a little better, as his performance improved as the season went on. For Sale, it was the opposite.  He seemed unhittable until the end of the season when his numbers started to fall off. Sale’s ERA over the last month of the season was 3.72, not great for his standards, but still pretty solid. He was under a lot of scrutiny for his poor performance but he actually allowed 0 ER in three of his final six starts. As I mentioned, Sale lead the entire league in innings pitched.  So his poor late-season numbers were likely a result of fatigue. He last pitched on September 26th, so he should be plenty rested come Thursday’s series opener.

Verlander Finishes Strong

Verlander also put together an exceptional year, but very unlike Sale’s season. Houston’s new ace had a rough start to the season with a pre-all star break ERA an uncharacteristic 4.73. This may have had something to do with being on one of the worst teams in baseball (Detroit Tigers). As expected, Verlander was much improved in the second half, posting a 1.95 ERA after the All Star break. He was especially exceptional in the last month of the season, earning five quality starts in as many tries and posted a 1.06 ERA to go along with a 0.65 WHIP. Verlander’s main advantage in this match up is experience.  He has 16 career post season starts and Sale has none. Verlander is 7-5 with a with a 3.39 ERA in his post season career. expect game one to be a low scoring affair despite the high powered offenses.

ALDS Game 2- Pomeranz vs Keuchel

 

Image result for dallas keuchel stats

Another great pitching match up here in game two. Many teams around the league would love to have Pomeranz or Keuchel serving as a backup to their ace. Pomeranz has put together a career year posting a 3.32 ERA on the season. A reason for concern for the Sox is that the Astros Lineup is stacked full of great right handed hitters. Houston’s lineup features the league batting title champ (Jose Altuve), Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yuliesky Gurriel, all righ- handed batters. However, Pomeranz has handled them well this year. In two starts Pomeranz has thrown 12.1 innings while allowing just seven hits and two ER. Houston batters are hitting only .245 with just eight extra base hits in 102 at bats vs Drew. Boston will need this display of dominance from Drew if they want the win.

Like Sale, Keuchel was scorching hot to start the season, going 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Unfortunately for Houston, Keuchel found himself on the DL in June due to a neck injury. He returned in July and struggled mightily, posting a 5.05 ERA in six starts. However, Keuchel did seem to find his groove in August as he went 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. The bearded lefty seems healthy and locked in as we enter the ALDS. Prepare for another low scoring game in game two.

 

ALDS Game 3- Morton vs Porcello?

Image result for rick porcello

 

The official pitching match ups have not been posted but this is who I imagine game three will feature. The third post-season starter position for the Red Sox is up for grabs between Doug Fister, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello. I believe Porcello is the best option, despite having a disappointing year after winning the 2016 AL CY Young. I am ruling Doug Fister out of the equation due to a horrific final month which he had an ERA of 6.85. While E-Rod has slightly better numbers than Porcello this year, the difference is not enough to overcome his lack of experience. Porcello has certainly not lived up to expectations, but his numbers are skewed by some really poor starts. The quality starts are still there, but the bad ones have just been really bad. Rick has thrown at least 6 innings in 26 of his 33 starts. He has allowed three ER or fewer in 19 starts this year and even has two complete games. If the good version of Porcello shows up for the Red Sox then they have a clear advantage here in game three. Veteran Charlie Morton has put together a career year for Houston in his 10th year in the league. Morton has won 14 games and has an ERA of 3.62. I am leaning towards Houston electing Morton due to his impressive final month which he posted an ERA of 2.54 in 28.1 innings of work. This match up will really come down to Porcello pitching to his potential and keeping his sinker down in the zone.

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

 

Astros-Red Sox Positional Breakdown

On Thursday the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will start the best-of-five ALDS series. These two teams closed their regular seasons facing each other, so they had plenty of time to get acquainted. This series means a little more of course, and the two teams will pull out all stops to try and advance. Which team has the advantage at each position?

Starting Pitching

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros throws against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 27, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The Astros’ trade for Justin Verlander right before the waiver deadline has shored up their rotation. After a sub .500 month of August, people doubted the Astros’ legitimacy as a World Series contender. Behind Dallas Keuchel, their rotation had question marks. Lance McCullers got hurt after a hot start and hadn’t been pitching well since. Then Verlander arrived. Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA for the Astros and they bounced back to go 21-8 from there on out. With Verlander and Keuchel at the front, the Astros have two aces. McCullers has been struggling, but Brad Peacock has had an excellent season for them, winning 13 games with an ERA of 3.00 and 11 strikeouts per nine. He would seem to be a fine option to slot in at number three.

The Red Sox have a Cy Young candidate in Chris Sale at the top. Following him is Drew Pomeranz, who somewhat quietly has put himself in a position for a potential top five finish in the Cy Young vote himself. Beyond that, though, the Red Sox have many questions. No one is quite sure yet who will be their #3 or 4 starters, and none of the options are altogether appealing.

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen

The Astros are strong at the back end of their bullpen, but if forced to dip into the pen earlier in games they could face issues. Closer Ken Giles is excellent, and Chris Devenski had a heck of a year for them striking out 100 batters. Will Harris is another excellent reliever for them, posting an ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season. No one else is reliable though. Their next best reliever, Luke Gregerson, had an ERA of 4.57.

The Red Sox bullpen is strong, and rather deep with options. It features Craig Kimbrel, possibly the best closer in the game. Kimbrel struck out 126 of 254 batters faced this season! He’ll be setup by Addison Reed, and possibly Joe Kelly and Carson Smith. Those are some solid pitchers, maybe not quite as good as the Astros setup men, but good. After that, the Red Sox depth shows much better. They have many quality options for relievers to make the roster, unlike the Astros whose fourth best wouldn’t make the Red Sox roster.

Advantage: Red Sox

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after beating the Houston Astros and winning the AL East Division at Fenway Park on September 30, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Catcher

The two teams differ quite a bit at catcher. The Astros will pretty much just feature Brian McCann, while the Red Sox have two catchers in Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon who should both get playing time. McCann is a low-batting-average hitter with good pop, whereas the Sox have Vazquez who batted .290 but with just five home runs. On the defensive side they are even more different. McCann is one of the worst defensive catchers in the league,  who only threw out eight of 62 would-be base stealers. That 13% caught stealing rate pales in comparison to Christian Vazquez’ 42% and Sandy Leon’s 37% clip. Vazquez and Leon combined to throw out 39 base runners.

Advantage: Red Sox

First Base

The Astros have highly touted Cuban import Yuli Gurriel playing first. Gurriel had a nice first full season in the Majors, batting .299 with 18 homers and 43 doubles. He actually batted over .300 in every month except for May.

The Red Sox’ Mitch Moreland batted only .246, but thanks to his ability to draw walks, his .326 on base percentage is actually only six points behind Gurriel’s. He out- homered Gurriel 22-18, but his slugging percentage still lags behind. Moreland is probably better with the glove, having committed just five errors after winning the Gold Glove last season, but it’s not enough to make up the difference.

Advantage: Astros

Second Base

Altuve

Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros bats during a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 13, 2017 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Dustin Pedroia is a high contact, good average hitter who is also an excellent defender. As much as I love Pedey, this is no contest.

Jose Altuve led the league with 204 base hits, becoming the first player ever to lead his league in hits in four straight seasons, collecting 200+ in each of them. Altuve came in third in the MVP vote a year ago and has a strong case for winning it this season. He led the league in hitting with a .346 average, while also popping 24 homers despite being 5’6″. Oh, he also stole 32 bases and missed reaching 40 doubles for the fourth consecutive year by just one double. He is one of the absolute best players in the league.

Advantage: Astros

Third Base

This is a fascinating match up. Both teams have a very good, young player at the position. Alex Bregman was the second overall pick in the 2015 draft and made the Majors by the next year. This year he batted .284 with 19 home runs and an .827 OPS.

Red Sox Rafael Devers has long been considered one of the highest upside players in the minor leagues, and he’s still only 20! In 58 games Devers matched Bregman’s .284 batting average while cracking 10 homers and posting an .819 OPS. Their numbers are almost identical and both are very highly touted.

Advantage: Push

Shortstop

Carlos Correa had been a fine shortstop his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year in 2015 and hitting 20 homers in both seasons. He took a step forward this year though, showing he could contend for best shortstop in baseball for many years to come. Correa batted .315 with an excellent .941 OPS this season.

As for the Red Sox, they have a very talented shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, but one who is maddeningly inconsistent. Bogaerts had a fantastic first half last season, only to fall way off in the second half. This year he again started hot before cooling off. At seasons end he had only batted .273 with 10 home runs while also making numerous baserunning mistakes. This is no contest.

Advantage: Astros

Left Field

The Astros have a variety of guys they play here, and Marwin Gonzalez may be the one they use. He has played all over however, and like Eduardo Nunez for the Sox, could be used in a variety of places. Cameron Maybin was aquired from the Angels to play outfield. He is adept at stealing bases, but his hitting prowess leaves something to be desired.

The Sox have a rookie to get excited about for years to come in Benny Biceps. He might not be as good now as he will be, but he is still a very good player already. Benintendi hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases this season, the first rookie left fielder to accomplish that since Barry Bonds 30 years ago.

Advantage: Red Sox

Center Field

The Red Sox will usually have the advantage in the field here. Jackie Bradley is a wonderful defensive outfielder, routinely making spectacular throws and catches. He isn’t bad with the bat either, a bit inconsistent, but he gets the job done.

The Astros though have George Springer, a guy who hit 34 home runs this year. Springer also batted .283, showing he isn’t just a power hitter. His .889 OPS dwarfs Bradley’s .726 mark.

Advantage: Astros

Right Field

The Astros play former Red Sox Josh Reddick in right field, and he actually had one of his best seasons. Somehow, Josh Reddick batted .314 this year; not sure where that came from. Despite a down year from Mookie Betts, this isn’t really a contest. Betts almost won the MVP last year and is a very good fielder to boot. He hit 46 doubles this year and drove in 102 runners. His season may have left a bit to be desired, but the talent difference between these two is rather large.

Advantage: Red Sox

Mookie

Mookie Betts #30 of the Boston Red Sox reacts as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of a game against the Houston Astros on September 30, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Designated Hitter

Hanley Ramirez had a very disappointing follow up to his 2016 campaign, reverting back to the guy we saw in 2015 who swings wildly for the fences in every at bat. He only hit .242 and killed many rallies. He did manage to hit 23 home runs though, which is more than we can say for the Astros’ Carlos Beltran. Beltran, showing all of his 40 years, batted just .231 with 14 home runs and a devilish .666 OPS.

Advantage: Red Sox

Utility

I’m making a utility spot for the aforementioned Marwin Gonzalez and Eduardo Nunez. Both will probably play in more games than they won’t…if Nunez is healthy that is. Marwin Gonzalez had an out-of-nowhere breakout season. He batted .303 with 23 homers and 90 RBI this season, by far his best season to date. Nunez really helped kick start the Red Sox lineup after being acquired from the Giants, batting .321 with 8 home runs and a near .900 OPS for the Red Sox. Nunez’ Red Sox numbers extrapolated over a season would be similar to what Gonzalez has done, but is he healthy?

Slight Advantage: Astros

Final Analysis

So the final breakdown totals come to five advantages for the Astros, five advantages for the Red Sox, and two pushes. These teams are looking pretty even when it comes to which team has the advantage at each position. The Astros did win 99 games to the Red Sox 93 and finished the year stronger. They also have home field, so the overall advantage would have to go slightly to them, but this could be a good ALDS matchup. Sit back, watch, and hopefully enjoy.

 

The Road to the World Series Not Paved with Gold

The Red Sox are in the playoffs with a magic number of one to secure the AL East title. The journey to the World Series starts now.

‘Stros and the Tribe Up Next

There is a good chance that will happen, but then the fun begins. With the Astros and the Indians still competing for home field advantage, the Red Sox have a mountain to climb.  Both possible opponents have been among the best and most consistent teams of 2017.  The Indians have won 100 games, the Astros 99.  The Astros lead the MLB in batting average, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS, runs, hits and doubles. Offensively, they are a machine with a line up deeper than the Atlantic.  While their pitching is not as strong, the team ERA is 4.13, they strike out a lot of batters and are above average in just about every way.  The also have former CY Young winners in Keuchal and Verlander who have sampled the play offs before.

The Indians also play on the back of that record-breaking winning streak with high confidence. Offensively not as strong as the Astros, but The Indians remain in the top five in most categories.  Their pitching is their strong card. They have the best team ERA, most strikeouts, most complete games, a second best WHIP of 1.17 and they have Terry Francona, a manager who has won and lost in the World Series and understands how to manage his pitching staff in the post season cauldron.

The Up and Down Sox

At the moment, the Red Sox are frustratingly inconsistent. They have the talent but can’t seem to put it all together over a sustained period.  There is no doubt the Red Sox are down on power at the plate. They rank just 27th in home runs with just a mere 167 this season.  The team slugging percentage is just .408, down in 25th spot with an OPS of just .738.

It is brighter on the defensive side. The Red Sox have the fourth-best ERA of 3.71, the third most strikeouts a WHIP of 1.25 and Chris Sale, who on his day is one of the top-three pitchers in the whole MLB.  The problem is that the Red Sox have pitched the most innings of any team, mainly because run support had often been non-existent. Chris Sale has pitched more innings than anyone and it’s beginning to show.  That said, there has been a recent and alarming tendency by the pitching staff to give up runs in the first inning. With the current, offensive state of play its game over.

We know the Indians will have a game plan for the playoffs. We saw it last year and no doubt it will happen again.  The Astros will let their bats do the talking and will just try and outscore everyone. Any off day from a Red Sox pitcher will be punished.

If the Red Sox are to make it to the World Series, it is likely they will have to beat both the Indians and the Astros. To do that they are going to have to shut down the Astros’ offense and overcome Kluber, Miller and co.

That’s a tough ask.

Red Sox Potential Playoff Scenarios

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As the season winds down playoff contenders are beginning to game-plan for their potential first round opponents. More than likely, the Sox will encounter either Houston or Cleveland in the ALDS. For the majority of the season, the Astros were the heavy favorite to win the AL due to their remarkable offense and above-average pitching staff. However, thanks to a historic run, the Indians have emerged as the clear AL favorite and possibly World Series favorite as well. The Tribe is currently sitting on a a 21-game win streak, an all time American League record. Meanwhile, Houston is just 18-21 since the beginning of August.  Safe to say that Red Sox Nation hopes to face Houston in the ALDS.

Houston is a favorable match-up for Boston

The Red Sox have no reason to think twice about playing the Astros in the first round. Houston is actually a sub .500 team since the All-Star break with a record of just 27-28. Sure, Correa, Springer and Keuchel have all spent time on the DL.  But a sub .500 performance doesn’t approach playoff-caliber baseball, despite any injuries a team undergoes.

On the other hand, the Red Sox have gone 32-23 since the All-Star break. Keuchel and Verlander hold down the front of Houston’s rotation.  An intimidating duo at first glance, but further speculation exposes their true identity. Keuchel has not pitched well lately. He owns an ERA of 5.59 over his last three starts. Verlander boasts an exceptional 2.20 ERA over the last month.  But baseball fans know he has become rather inconsistent in recent years. Due to Keuchel’s struggles and Verlander’s inconsistency, Houston’s rotation becomes a serious concern for Astros fans. As a staff, Houston’s pitchers own an ERA of 4.35 over the last month, which does not compare favorably to the Red Sox ERA of 3.87 over the same stretch. Also, the Astros offense has struggled down the stretch.  As a team they are batting a modest .244 over the past 28 days. With Houston’s mediocre second-half pitching, hitting and overall play they have fallen as a legitimate world series contender.  The Red Sox should be confident in their chances of beating them.

 

Why Cleveland is road block for the Sox

The Red Sox will likely have to play Cleveland at some point in the playoffs. This could be a potential problem.  But, remember that anyone can win come playoff time. As I mentioned earlier, the Indians are in the middle of a record-breaking win streak which currently stands at 21. Tito and company have certainly been playing phenomenal baseball as of late. During the streak they have outscored opponents 139-35 and have trailed in just five innings. Dominant starting pitching has led their success as they claimed 19 of the 21 wins during the streak.  In total, the Indians pitchers boast a 1.79 ERA during this incredible stretch.

Their spectacular offense has batted .284 and slugged 50 home runs since the start of the streak. The Red Sox will certainly have their hands full if they encounter the Tribe. Chris Sale’s poor career numbers against Cleveland remain a central concern for the Sox.  In his career he is 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA, certainly not Sale-like numbers. Despite Sale’s struggles against the Indians, I personally trust him on the mound in any situation. He has established himself as a true ace and an elite pitcher in the middle of a historic season. At the end of the day Chris Sale is Chris Sale and he should be trusted no matter the opponent.

American League Title is up for grabs

The postseason is going to be here before we know it. It appears that that the Red Sox will have to face Cleveland in order to make it to the World Series. Let us not forget that the city of Boston in underdog scenarios. With a big 11-1 thrashing over Oakland last night,  the Red Sox may be heating up just in time. This team has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of the season and I am sensing a joyfully dramatic playoff run for this group. When Boston plays their own brand of aggressive, tenacious and determined baseball, they can beat anyone. Red Sox Nation, I ask you to please remember this; Boston has already beaten Cleveland four times in seven tries this year.  They can do it again. Lets go Sox!  Win. Dance. Repeat.

 

 

*Statistics accurate as of 9/13/17* Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)