Tag Archives: Boston Red Sox Luxury Payroll Tax

Bogaerts

The Brewers Are After Xander Bogaerts

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There are rumors out of Milwaukee that the Brewers are after Xander Bogaerts. Why would the Red Sox trade him, and what could they expect in return?

Salary

The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.

Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.

Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.

Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.

What The Sox Could Expect In Trade

Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.

Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.

Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.

Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.

Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Is Marwin Gonzalez A Fit?

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When last we gazed on the 2018 Red Sox, the view was majestic.  But the 2018 season is over, and second base is a need.  Could Marwin Gonzalez meet that need?

On The Roster Now

For over 10 years, Dustin Pedroia was the guardian of second base and the second spot in the batting order for the Red Sox.  Before the dark times, before Manny Machado.

But let’s not be too harsh.  Machado’s spike and the aftermath, it could be argued, ended with the Sox getting Alex Cora.  That’s a great thing!

Pedroia is making a lot of money.  He’s on the books for an average of $13.75 million until 2021.  And that would be fine if he could play.  But the outlook is extremely iffy. He had knee cartilage restoration surgery in late 2017, followed by arthroscopic surgery to remove scar tissue in late July of this year.

I’m not a doctor, I don’t even play one on the Boston Sports Extra website, but because of those knee surgeries, I’m not hopeful for a full recovery.

Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt are the remaining possibilities at second base.  But Nunez is a DL stint waiting to happen, while Brock Holt provides limited returns the more he plays.

Look, I love me some Brock Holt, but he’s averaged 89 games a year for the past 3 years.  He’s not reliable for a full season.

Can Marwin Gonzalez play 2B?

Gonzalez is what’s known as a super utility player.  Think Ben Zobrist.  He has played 1B, 2B, SS, and OF for the Astros over the past few years, and done well.  His 3-year averages are 140 Games, 28 Doubles, 17 Home Runs, and a .778 OPS.

He has been held back from a set position because of the team he’s been on.  The Houston Astros have MVP candidates at Second Base in Jose Altuve, and at Short Stop in Carlos Correa.  In his career, Marwin Gonzalez has spent 54% of his time at either Short Stop or Second.

I think Gonzalez can definitely play Second Base, but why would he come to the Sox?

The Alex Cora Connection

Because of Alex Cora.  Even the most casual observer could see the difference over a full season and in the playoffs that Alex Cora makes.  It’s no mistake his teams have won the World Series two years in a row.  And Marwin Gonzalez knows Cora from their time together last year with the Astros.

Even if Pedroia comes back, Holt gets playing time, and somehow Nunez stays healthy, Alex Cora knows how they communicate with the team effectively.  Gonzalez’s versatility would be put to cooly efficient use by Cora in those circumstances.

The Cost

MLB Trade Rumors pegs Marwin Gonzalez as the 16th best free agent and estimates he will garner a 4 year, $36 million dollar deal.

These are the types of players I believe the Red Sox will go after because of their substantial payroll.  The Luxury Payroll Tax is a complicated matter that will be addressed at a later time.  But after all the arbitration numbers for the entire All-Star Outfield, as well as Xander Bogaerts, the Sox will be well into Luxury Tax territory.

Less expensive players like Marwin Gonzalez would go a long way towards solidifying the roster and getting the Red Sox back to the playoffs in 2019.