Tag Archives: Charlie Morton

Red Sox, Rays

RED SOX – RAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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When I wrote the Rays series preview last week I started it by asking if the prior series could have gone much worse. Just a week later and the tone and feeling around this team is so different. The Red Sox took five of their seven games against the Rays and Yankees, and really could not have dreamed of much more. However, if it had not been for dropping the final game of each series it could have been the perfect week.

7/30 David Pricevs. Charlie Morton (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/31 Rick Porcello vs. Ryan Yarbrough (L) 7:10 pm NESN

8/1 Andrew Cashner vs. TBD 7:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Price and Morton will go head to head once again to open this series, having closed out the last one. Combined they pitched 13 innings, allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out 19. They might find it a little tougher in the more hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park, but this should be a matchup to watch.

With Yarbrough currently projected to start the second game, it is worth looking at how he fares as a starter this season and in his career. Both this season and in his career he is worse as a starter than a reliever, but that is not hugely surprising given the situations. However, the split that should concern the Red Sox is home versus away. At home, his ERA in any role is 5.79, but on the road that drops to 2.79. The Red Sox cannot allow that game to slip through their fingers, but it will not be easy.

The still relatively new Red Sox pitcher Andrew Cashner has a limited body of work against the Rays. He has just five starts and 29 innings against them in his career. His overall numbers are fairly middling, with a 4.03 ERA, 2-1 record, 18 strikeouts, and 12 walks. Not good, but not a disaster. Against a usually stingy Rays pitching staff the Red Sox could do with him being good in this one.

HITTERS

The Red Sox offense has been on fire in the last week. In the last seven days, they have hit .354 with 11 home, 46 runs scored and a whopping 37 extra-base hits. That does not even include the 14 runs they scored in the first two games of the last Rays series. This is the offense we expected this season, and we need to see more of it.

Getting on top of the Rays offense is key to victory. That is an obvious statement, but when I say early I mean really early, as in the first batter of the game. This season, in 108 PA the Rays have hit .340 in that spot, with eight runs, 15 extra-base hits, eight walks, and just 18 strikeouts. Overall the number one hitter in their order has a .306 batting average, 28 home runs, and 57 extra-base hits. That leads all positions in their batting order.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The righties on this roster are the big question mark right now, well, and Chris Sale too. However, focusing on Porcello and Cashner is key for opponents right now. The two righties have been unimpressive this season, and the Red Sox need that to change. Their two starts against a lineup which is solid but unspectacular will be key. If they blow up, and the Red Sox lose to two of the Rays lesser starters, they once again head to face the Yankees in a lot of trouble.

Hitting: Hopefully, we are just going to sit back and watch this lineup do their work. However, the real intrigue is Morton, because if the Red Sox want a World Series they will likely need to beat pitchers like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Perhaps even Morton himself in a play-in game to just simply get into a full playoff series. Lay down a marker in Game 1 and the best pitchers in the league will suddenly fear this offense a little more.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox are flying high right now. Although if they are the team we want them to be they will be beating themselves up over those two losses in winnable situations to end those series. However, they have given themselves an outside shot at the division, and put themselves in a better position for the Wildcard game.

Going to New York will be tough, especially given the Red Sox are better at home than on the road. Therefore, this series needs to be a win. Ideally, it needs to be 3-0 to really put pressure on the Yankees, but that might be asking too much. The Red Sox offense will be key here. Can they get after Morton? Hopefully. Do they need to provide some run support for the last two games in the series? Most definitely. If they do not they could be facing a series defeat and being double-digit games behind the Yankees all over again.

Red Sox, Rays

RED SOX – RAYS SERIES PREVIEW

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Well, that series with the Orioles could not have gone much worse. Coming into the series the Red Sox would have been hoping for a sweep. At the very least they would have been hoping to win the series 2-1. Instead, they lost the series and are now left heading to Tampa in a really tough situation. These next 14 days will shape the Red Sox season, be it for better or worse.

7/22 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Jalen Beeks (L) 7:00 pm NESN

7/23 Chris Sale vs. Yonny Chirinos (R) 7:05 pm NESN

7/24 David Price vs. Charlie Morton (R) 12:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

All eyes will be firmly on Price after his mini-implosion against the Orioles (4 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR, 4K). In that matchup, he was up against the extremely impressive John Means, and he wilted under the spotlight. Well, that spotlight only gets brighter in this outing as he goes up against the even more impressive Charlie Morton. With an 11-3 record and a 2.61 ERA, Morton is firmly in Cy Young contention.

For his part, Morton is also coming into this game off the back of a tough outing. He took his third loss in his last seven starts against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, the rest of the season has been, for the most part, really good. Out of 21 starts, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 18 of those starts. He had two mixed outings against the Red Sox earlier this season. In Boston, he shut them out through six innings, but in Tampa, he allowed five earned runs in six innings. The Red Sox will be hoping for a repeat of that home performance this time around.

Jalen Beeks should be a familiar face to the Red Sox organization. Having spent the best part of five years in the organisation they should know all about him. This will be just his second major league start, having been a starter throughout the minors, but transitioning to a relief role in 2018. This season he has a 2.78 ERA, with 56 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. This season he has gone three or more innings 15 times, over four on six occasions, as long as 6 2/3 on one occasion.

HITTERS

The Rays rank 15th in the league this season in batting average, 12th in OBP, 19th in slugging and 17th in runs scored and home runs. Interestingly they have been slightly better on the road, ranking 17th in batting average, 18th in OBP and home runs, 22 in home runs and 23rd in slugging. This is the best place to pitch against the Rays, and with the Rays coming to Fenway next week the Red Sox need to take advantage.

The Red Sox have been marginally better hitters at home, but it the change is fairly negligible. However, against the Rays they have been somewhat of a disaster this season. In nine games they are hitting .212, with a .345 slugging percentage, eight home runs and 90 strikeouts in 63 innings.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The Red Sox once again have three lefties on the mound. The Rays are middle of the league against left-handed pitching, so the Red Sox will be hoping for a successful series. Right now these three pitchers are the best bet the Red Sox have for a playoff series. They also need these three guys to provide the majority of their wins in the coming months. This series is going to tell us a lot about the direction of this team.

Hitting: Let’s take a look at who are the best Red Sox hitters on the road this season. Rafael Devers has 14 of his 20 home runs on the road, while hitting .322 and striking out just 37 times in 205 AB. J.D. Martinez is hitting .301 with nine home runs, and Brock Holt is hitting .328 but with just one home run. In contrast, Jackie Bradley Jr. is hitting a woeful .202 on the road, but does have six of his 11 home runs away from Fenway Park.

EXPECTATIONS

The hope was that the Red Sox would be coming into this series with momentum. Instead, they are coming in off the back of a humiliating loss to one of the worst teams in the Majors. There are not many worse ways to head into a 14 game gauntlet against your two biggest divisional rivals.

It is not an understatement to say that the next fortnight is make or break. At the end of this not only could the Red Sox be out of the divisional race, but they could be in an uphill struggle for the wildcard spots as well. This series is one the Red Sox really need at least two wins from, and one of those wins will need to come off either Charlie Morton or Yonny Chirinos. It will be hard but the Red Sox are defending World Champions and now is the time to show it.

Red Sox – Rays Series Preview

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Right now the Red Sox are poor Ned Umber. Nailed to a wall of poor performances, turned by the Night King of a 6-13 record, and set on fire by Red Sox Nation.

This is not a melodramatic assessment. Check out what David Price, the only starter who has thrown 7 shutout innings this year, has to say:

With that in mind they start a three game series with the division leading Tampa Bay Rays tonight.

They have guys performing like this all over their roster:

Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)

4/19 – Eduardo Rodriguez vs Ryan Stanek (NESN)

4/20 – Rick Porcello vs Charlie Morton (NESN)

4/21 – David Price vs Tyler Glasnow (NESN)

Notable Numbers

.1835 This is the career batting average of current Rays regulars against Rodriguez (.184) and Price (.183). This is just another reminder of what the Red Sox starters are capable of if they can get their heads screwed on straight.

The Red Sox have very few at bats against Stanek, but have hit .381 against him. They have a little more history against Charlie Morton, who they’ve hit to a .333 clip.

What To Watch For

Xander Bogaerts will have a lot to do with any success the Sox have this weekend. He’s hitting .500 against Morton in 12 at bats, including a home run, and .381 against Stanek with a triple.

This is a big weekend for the Red Sox, but even more so for Rick Porcello. He’s completely out of sorts, and the Rays have a lot of success against him. He could either spin off into oblivion, or turn his season around.

Sunday’s game could be a great pitching duel. Glasnow comes in with a 4-0 record, 1.13 ERA, and .88 WHIP. Price went 7 innings and allowed no runs his last time out against Baltimore.

Expectations

Another series, another ‘Who can say?‘ History says this is a series win for the Sox. But the reality is the Sox are 6-13, while the Rays are 14-5.

The Red Sox have to snap out of it at some point. Right now they have a 10 game stretch where they play the Rays six times. That’s a real opportunity to change the narrative. It’s also a massive risk where the Night King takes over and the whole team gets traded.

We’ve gone from watching glory, to a Shakespearean tragedy. At least it’s interesting.

Featured image via HBO screen grab.

Follow: @BostonsportSAHD

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Does Charlie Morton Compare to Nathan Eovaldi?

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One of the surprises of the 2019 Free Agency crop in Major League baseball is that Charlie Morton is available.  The Astros did not sign him before he hit free agency and they did not extend him a qualifying offer.

Nathan Eovaldi In Demand

Why does that matter to the Red Sox?  Because Nathan Eovaldi is suddenly starting to attract attention in the market.  A quick google search will show the Yankees’ interest.  And shockingly, curveball enthusiast Lance McCullers is going to miss the 2019 season for the Astros due to Tommy John Surgery.  According to many, this puts Eovaldi on the Astros list.

All of this is to say, the Red Sox will have a lot of competition for Eovaldi.  And while we rightly sing songs to his World Series heroics, it’s not like Eovaldi is the second coming of Pedro Martinez.  So it’s worth asking, if Eovaldi signs elsewhere, are there legit replacements available?

Charlie Morton

Let’s play a choose your own pitcher game.  Here are the average stats for the past two active seasons of each pitcher.  One of these is Charlie Morton, the other is Nathan Eovaldi:

  • Pitcher A: 118 innings, 23 starts, 4.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
  • Pitcher B: 157 innings, 27 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Can you guess which is which?  A is Eovaldi, B is Morton.  Charlie Morton gets a bad rap that he’s injury prone, but he’s averaging 157 innings a year, which is what you need from a number 3, 4 or 5 starter.  He walks a few more than Eovaldi but strikes out a lot more too.

The fact that Morton, like Eovaldi, is right-handed also works in his favor.  The Sox already have three left-handers in Sale, Price and Eduardo Rodriguez.  There are a lot of right-handed bats on the Red Sox closest competitors, the Yankees, and Astros.  Having a right-handed starter to counteract Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa is a necessity.

One other nugget about Morton: He is the forerunner of Eovaldi in terms of bullpen work in the ALCS and World Series in 2017.

Charlie Morton is 35 years old, 6 years older than Eovaldi, and because of that, there will be less demand for his services.  MLB Trade Rumors state, and I love this, that Morton is aging like fine wine.  They also estimate a 2 year $32 Million deal for him, verse a 4 year $60 Million deal for Eovaldi.

The Alex Cora Connection

There’s that man again.  Cora worked with Charlie Morton last year with the Astros, he has the inside knowledge on this guy.  Because of this, if there is smoke out there about the Sox interest in Morton I would believe it.

To me, Nathan Eovaldi is the Number 1 priority for the Red Sox in Free Agency.  But if the numbers start to creep towards $20 million a year I think the Red Sox should search for alternatives.  Charlie Morton is a great back up plan.

W2W4: Red Sox vs. Astros

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The Red Sox take on the Houston Astros this weekend in a three game set that many believe is an ALCS preview. There will be plenty to take in at Fenway Park over the next few days. Here’s what I’ll be keeping my eye on:

Aces, Charles, You’re Aces

Aces are often the case when top flight teams face off, and there will be some big time pitching matchups worth tuning in for.

Friday night’s tilt features two of the AL’s best: Gerrit Cole and David Price. Cole was a CY Young favorite earlier this season. In his first 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and a .169 batting average against. However, he’s cooled recently. Since the calendar flipped to August, he’s 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Conversely, Price is just hitting his stride. The 2012 AL CY Young award winner has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s shut down opposing bats to the tune of a 1.62 second-half ERA, with an exquisite 6.14 K/BB ratio over his last 7 starts.

Saturday’s matchup is solid as well, with Houston’s Charlie Morton (13-3, 3.13 ERA) facing off against Eduardo Rodriguez (12-3, 3.34 ERA). Both guys are in the midst of career years, and overcoming recent DL stints. This will be Morton’s first start since August 28th, and Rodriguez’s second start since returning from the DL earlier this month. Of course, we all remember how that first start went:

As if that wasn’t enough, Sunday features the two of the last three AL CY Young winners. Rick Porcello is looking to rebound from an especially tough stretch; he’s allowed a HR in 10 of his last 13 starts, and has a 5.21 ERA since June 27th. Dallas Keuchel has been Houston’s 4th best starter, though he’d be a #2 or #3 guy on most clubs. He’s been effective all season long, and will be coming off of a 6 inning, 0 earned-run outing against the Twins on Monday.

Even without Chris Sale and Justin Verlander toeing the rubber, both teams have plenty of starting pitching to keep things interesting all weekend.

Mitchy No Bags

On May 25th, the Red Sox DFA’ed Hanley Ramirez. There were plenty of extenuating factors that went into that roster decision, including first-baseman Mitch Moreland‘s red hot start. It made sense at the time. Moreland was hitting .318/.393/.636 with 8 HR in 122 PA, along with his typically stellar defense. He’s since gone into a tailspin. In 75 games since May 26th, Moreland is only slashing .220/.294/.374 with 7 HR. He’s also 1 for his last 18 at bats.

Moreland is a career .252/.318/.440 hitter, and the totality of his 2018 has reflected that larger sample size. However, considering how hard he faltered in the second half of 2017, Sox fans have reason to worry that they won’t get enough out of a key cog come playoff time. If Moreland is going to get hot again, this weekend would be a good time to start.

Old Dogs, Old Tricks

Second base has been a struggle for the Sox this season. They rank 26th in the majors with a 83 wRC+ at that position. Dustin Pedroia‘s consistent offensive output and strong defense (*cough* Nunez *cough*) has been missed.

The good news? A couple of former All-Stars have made their presence felt at that spot recently. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips may be long in the tooth, but they’re contributing in a big way down the stretch.

Kinsler got off to a slow start this season. But, he began to find a rhythm right before the Red Sox acquired him on July 30th. In 21 games for Boston, he’s hit .310/.355./408 with a 106 OPS+. His slick defense has been a major upgrade, too. Kinsler was 4-11 with 5 RBI in the Red Sox sweep of the Braves earlier this week, including a couple of rare (for him) opposite-field gappers.

Brandon Phillips signed a minor league contract in June, and made his Red Sox debut on Wednesday. His impact was, in a word, immediate:

There’s still about a month until the postseason roster shakes out. But these two former All-Stars have tons to offer the Sox in the here and now. We’ll see if they continue to make the most of their opportunities against the reigning world champs.

This weekend is must watch TV for Red Sox fans. The results may not be predicative of what will happen in October, but they will go a long way towards determining who has the upper hand should we see this matchup again.