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Finding Hope in the Current Red Sox Prospects

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MLB released their annual prospect list this past week, containing the best 100 players throughout the minor league systems. The San Diego Padres have a fair share of young players from Boston (see: Kimbrel and Pomeranz trades). They also lead the way with an unprecedented ten players in the top 100 and seven in the top 50.

On the other end of the spectrum, is Boston. They have just one, single prospect in the top 100. This isn’t something new for the Red Sox. They haven’t had a deep farm system since pre-2015, and only had one player on this same list going into 2018.

Michael Chavis was placed appropriately at 69th in the pre-2018 rankings. After a tumultuous 2018 in which he was caught up in a PED suspension, and faced uncertainty on which position he would playing going forward, the Sox top prospect placed 79th this year.

(Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com)

Chavis is the prospect with the highest ceiling in the system, and he’s also the most likely to crack the roster at some point this year. However, only having one name in the top 100 isn’t the end-all-be-all. There are plenty of prospects the Sox have, that would fall in the 101-200 range of young players. A lot of these guys have real chances to impact this team for a long time.

Help Coming Soon (2019-2020)

Durbin Feltman is flying through the ranks after being a third rounder just a year ago. He might get a chance to feature in Boston in 2019, but moving forward I would love to see if this kid has what it takes to be a long-term closer in the pros. Feltman was the best stopper in the entire NCAA last year with TCU. He could really be a huge asset for this bullpen in coming years.

(Ellman Photography)

Darwinzon Hernandez, a highly admired prospect of general manager Dave Dombrowski. After 23 solid starts in high-A in 2018, Hernandez made some good relief outings in double-A Portland. If he keeps progressing the way he has since he joined the system in 2014, he could be a key bullpen member in 2020.

Bobby Dalbec and Josh Ockimey sit in triple-A Pawtucket alongside Chavis, awaiting a major league call in 2018. Both of those aforementioned guys have big bats, and both can fill a potential void at first base if the veteran options don’t work out.

A Slightly More Distant Future (2021+)

Bryan Mata, he’s only 19 years old and has already put up solid numbers in high-A ball. Mata will move up to Portland this season and has a chance to contend for a rotation spot in 2021 if he keeps trending upwards. Mata is criminally underrated by people rankings prospects outside the organization. He has the chance to be a legit starter in the MLB.

Jay Groome underwent Tommy John surgery and missed 2018, causing a lot of people to forget how good he was. The Sox took him in the first round for a reason. He had a 1.64 era in low-A ball in 2017. This proves he can do it at an elevated minor league level, he just needs to stay healthy. He worked out with Chris Sale last year, and hopefully that benefits the career trend of Groome. We could see him in Boston by 2021.

Triston Casas was the Sox’ first rounder in 2018. He barely got to get going in the Gulf Coast League. A thumb injury ended his season after just five at-bats. He only turned 19 two weeks ago. If he is able to get healthy and get good ABs in 2019, he’ll start progressing through the minors. I truly believe this kid has star potential even based off of his high school tapes. Watching him in 2019 will be an important step in his development.

See, the Sox farm system isn’t facing nearly as much peril as you thought it would be, right?

Potential Breakout Sox in 2019

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Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, Nathan Eovaldi. Of all these guys fit the bill of players who broke out in one way or another in 2018 for Boston. Through this article, we’ll try and identify a few guys who could take the next step in their contributions for the Red Sox next year. Barring a major acquisition to bolster the backend of the bullpen, the Sox are likely done making moves. So, with the roster all but set, let’s take a look at some potential breakout players for the Red Sox in 2019.

Sam Travis

A former second rounder, Travis suffered a brutal knee injury a couple of years ago. He had potential to be the first basemen of the future, leading all of triple-A in RBIs before his ACL blew out. Sam Travis will turn 26 next season, and his chances to be an everyday major leaguer are looking slim. However, a role is still available for him. If one of Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce significantly drop off, or the Sox need some power off the bench, Travis could find his way to staying on the roster. Travis has always been a high walk/low strikeout type player, which gives him immediate as a bench player. Having a smart hitter available in a late game situation is something that every contending team could use, and Travis will have his chance to earn this role. For the time being, he’s going to need another strong March to crack the 25-man roster out of Spring Training.

Michael Chavis

Like Travis, Michael Chavis is a former top pick of the Sox. A first rounder just a few years ago, Chavis looked to be on the right trajectory to being an everyday player in the Major Leagues. However, a suspension to begin 2018 set everything back for Chavis. Now that he’s hopefully learned his lesson regarding Performance Enhancing Drugs, he can get back to the basics. He hit just under .300 in the minor last season, mostly with double-A Portland, but he eventually made his way to triple-A Pawtucket. A fantastic pure hitter, Chavis’ bat will earn him a call-up a some point in 2019.

The issue for Chavis is that he runs into someone we’ll discuss more later, Rafael Devers. Devers is the long-term starting third baseman for the Sox, and that’s Chavis’ natural position. If he were willing to be moved to either first, or to take reps at DH and second base, he could have a good chance at an early call-up in 2019. If he’s successful, he could be in the lineup everyday by 2020.

Durbin Feltman

There is one name that gets me incredibly excited, Durbin Feltman. Not just because he has a fantastic baseball name. Also because he has the chance to play a huge role on this team almost immediately. Feltman was the closer at TCU this time last year. Now he’s soaring through the ranks of the Boston minor league system. If Feltman can somehow even make his way onto the opening day roster, there’s a slim chance he begins as the closer.

However, we will see Feltman at some point this season for the Red Sox. It may not be right away, and it may not be in his comfortable position of the ninth inning, but we will get to see a taste of the possible future. Feltman is just 21 years old, and will likely begin the season in triple-A. This means that he will likely be pitching in big innings by the time he’s 22-23. If all goes well, he could be closing games in Boston for a long time. His potential call-up in 2019 should be one that makes Red Sox fans salivate.

Rafael Devers

The fourth and final name on this list, is the one of the four who’s a mainstay on the Red Sox roster. Rafael Devers has had an up and down start to his major league tenure. This makes people forget he’s only 22. Getting called up in the middle of a playoff race in 2017, Devers was able to hold his own offensively and earn the starting job.

He regressed at the plate in 2018, and his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. With that being said, Devers is very much due for a massive 2019. He hit better in the playoffs, and had some huge moments for the Sox in the World Series. Lots of fans have already written him off and labeled him as a bust. Me? I think that Devers is about to turn the corner and establish himself as a premier, power-hitting third basemen. If you haven’t already, it’s time to hop on the Devers hype train.

Honorable Mentions:

Bobby Poyner, Travis Lakins, Mike Shawaryn, Marco Hernandez, Blake Swihart, Tyler Thornburg, Trevor Kelley.

All of these men will play a role at some point in 2019 for the Red Sox, whether it be small or large. Each will also have a chance to earn themselves a spot in the bullpen or on the bench heading into 2020.

Paul Goldschmidt – Future Red Sox player?

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The winter is in full swing in the baseball world. We’ve seen blockbusters already happening. From James Paxton, to Jean Segura to Robinson Cano, big names have already been on the move everywhere. The Red Sox more than likely won’t make an acquisition of that proportion, but let’s dream for a bit shall we? Paul Goldschmidt is going to be huge splash, wherever he lands. He’s an MVP caliber player, who’s on a benchwarmers salary next season. Seeing as it would only be a one year rental for Goldschmidt, the Sox may shy away from wanting to move multiple young pieces. However, as far as need and fit are concerned, this would be a great move for Boston to make while the championship window is still open.

With Arizona likely on its way towards a rebuild, many of their big names may be finding other homes. Patrick Corbin will leave via free agency, as the Diamondbacks just don’t have the payroll to keep him. Another aspect hurting the payroll, is Zack Grienke’s contract. They will also look to move him this winter. Which brings us to Goldschmidt. Possibly the most intriguing trade chip in all of baseball. Even Giancarlo Stanton on the market last season, reigning MVP, didn’t offer the pure hitting approach which Goldschmidt does. A career .300 hitter, with an OPS of .930, Goldschmidt is a guy who brings instant pop the lineup, and leadership the locker room.

So if Goldschmidt is on his way out of the desert, could the Red Sox make a viable run at his services for the next year? It’s definitely possible. Even with first base platooned by Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland, this team clearly has a need for first baseman. Both Pearce and Moreland are solid players, who both played a big role in this year’s World Series. It’s hard not to get caught up in the lore of those two, and want to keep them in the lineup. The wise decision, would be to try and upgrade one position where they are subpar.

A Potential Package for Goldschmidt

Obviously, Goldschmidt would require a hefty haul to acquire. The Sox farm system is fairly depleted. However, with Goldschmidt essentially only coming over for one year, the return is worth parting with for Boston. It would have to start with Boston’s top hitting prospect Michael Chavis, and go from there. He is the most valuable asset the Red Sox have outside the major league club. He is also seen as a guy who could come up and hit .300 next season in the show. It would likely take Chavis and a couple other mid-level prospects to make the deal happen. A 14 million dollar tag on the incoming Goldschmidt still makes it possible for the Sox to function under the luxury tax.

Obviously, with a player of Paul’s caliber, there are many bidders. The Phillies, Astros, and Cardinals are just a handful of the teams that are in on Goldschmidt. All these teams are in positions to compete, and have deeper farm systems than Boston. This doesn’t make the deal impossible, it just means Dombrowski would have to act quick.

Do I see this deal happening? Probably not. Is it something that I would like to have happen? Yes, because frankly it should happen. It’s a low risk move that immediately improves the team, while still leaving money for other free agents like Joe Kelly or Nathan Eovaldi. He’s a power hitting first baseman, who is still athletic as ever and has pretty good wheels as far as people his size go. This would be a huge move that let’s the whole league know the Red Sox are still at the top.

What Role Can Dustin Pedroia Still Play?

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He’s two years removed from playing a full season and clearly his knee has been an issue. However, Dustin Pedroia still has a lot of skills and traits that can still be useful to this team. He’s still locked up for a fair amount of time. He’s going to make roughly 40 million dollars over the final three years of his contract. Can he still produce at a level that merits having that contract on the books? That is yet to be determined, but first and foremost, Dustin has to get healthy. The now 35-year-old second baseman is fortunate for many reasons. Mainly, with Kinsler departing, he faces almost no competition on the roster for his position. If he can get strong over the winter and be ready for the spring, he’ll have his chance to make an impact for Boston like he did back in 2016 and preceded by various season earlier.

Pedroia’s Achilles Heel

Unfortunately for Pedroia, he just can’t shake the pain in his left knee. Father Time isn’t on his side either, by any means, but the two-year-old knee injury has to be frustrating Dustin. In 2016 he hit .318 with an OPS of .825. Both of these numbers are exceptional, even all-star worthy. Then Manny Machado came along.Image result for machado pedroia gif

The collision between the two in April of 2017 appears to be what initially led to the injury for Pedroia. Machado’s late slide, that he claims as unintentional, took out the left leg of Dustin and frankly he has never been the same since. Pedroia has always been one that has struggled with the injury bug here and there. Nothing has ever compared to this, though.

Playing with the speedy, dirt-dog style that he does, his knees have already been taking a beating over the years. This has the potential to possibly sideline him for a good chunk of another season. Which would be similar to his 2018 where he played in only three games. Even worse, this has the potential to be it for Pedroia, at least with Boston.

Having paid him 16 million dollars last year for basically nothing, and 15 million in 17 for a half season isn’t good business. That equates to roughly 23 million in dead money, plus another 40 still on the Red Sox plate in the future. He’s going to have his chance in 2019 but he has to take it, or he could see himself out a similar door to Hanley Ramirez.

Can He Still Be Effective?

Like I said earlier, his last full season in 2016 was very good. Even in 2017, in limited action, he was a decent ballplayer at .293/.369/.760. IF, which is a big if, he can be ready to go for Opening Day AND stay healthy, the numbers seem like an attainable goal. It’s nothing special, and probably not worth the dollar amount he’s making, but it’s more than they got last year.

With Ian Kinsler highly unlikely to return, the door is wide open for Pedroia to take the reigns back. For him, it’ll be a transition to a different role, one as more of only a team leader and less as a contributor. When he could last year, he was always on the bench. He acted like an assistant coach at times for Alex Cora, something that likely had a huge influence on the team that won the championship.

If he can put up the aforementioned triple slash line from 2017, and continue to evolve into a mentor for the young guys like Rafael Devers and eventually Michael Chavis, he’ll be somewhat worth the money they’re paying him. As far as the team goes, they won 108 games and a World Series this year. Adding Pedroia back into the fold can only be a plus for this Red Sox team, and to me, it’s definitely an upgrade from Kinsler.

The Aftershock of Michael Chavis

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Michael Chavis has tested positive for a banned substance dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (an anabolic steroid) and has been suspended for 80 games. Chavis was the Red Sox’ number one position player prospect their farm system. Chavis was ranked 80 in the Majors prospects, so lasting effects can be evident.

Michael Chavis Background

Who exactly is the top positional player for the Sox? The 5’10” Georgia native was acquired in the 1st round of the 2014 draft from Sprayberry Senior HS. The 22 year old third baseman struggled in 2016 after posting a .244/.321/.391 slash in 312 plate appearances. 2017 seemed to be the season where he took his young career to the next level. He produced a .282/.347/.563 slash between Portland, Salem, and Peoria. His home run total rose from eight in 2016 to 31 in 2017. It’s easy to project when Chavis began a regimen for anabolic steroids. Seeing that his average never really impressed until his 2017 season proves that his value is close to unreliable. Combine that with his average defending and we have ourselves a bust in the making.

Chavis was known for his strong arm but choppy footwork at the hot corner. It would make sense for his eventual transition to first base. The uncertainty of first base at the Sox’ Major League level is probably what made Chavis such a pivotal part of their farm system.

Aftershocks on the Farm System

So with Chavis’s eventual demotion in the farm system rankings, which players are left in the top 10? Well, everyone knows Jay Groome, the southpaw hurler reigning from Barnegat Township, New Jersey at number one overall. However, excluding pitchers, it is evident that the Sox don’t have a whole lot of youngsters. Sam Travis is the next positional player to take the top spot after Chavis’ suspension, and even that isn’t much to brag about. In 33 games playing for the 2017 Sox, he posted an underwhelming .263/.325/.342 line.

His below average scouting report highlights his lack of power. It really works against the height of his ceiling. This is the next best positional player the Sox have in their farm. The Sox can’t expect to keep Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley, among the other core youngsters. For a team that is about as “win now” as ever, this really hurts the Sox more than people may realize. It would be different if this happened to a team with a deep system (see: Braves, Yankees etc.). But it’s not ideal for a team that will owe Chris Sale a Brinks truck to keep him around.

Major League After Effects

You might already know that Dave Dombrowski is a very trigger happy executive. The Red Sox seem to be at a loss when it comes to production out of the bullpen so far in the 2018 season (except for Kimbrel and Poyner). The writing on the wall will point to possibly using Chavis as a trade piece to upgrade the bullpen to the likes of the Yankees or Indians. Now that Chavis is suspended, I cannot see a major trade going down for the Sox the rest of the season. The ball club was probably one big trade piece away from being an even bigger championship contender than before.

The Bottom Line

Let’s be real for a second: The Red Sox are still putting an elite team on the field night after night. They have a major league roster with an average age of 27.9 (6th in 2017) and a starting rotation that has had an excellent first week of the 2018 season. This comes without the contributions of Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright. With Devers panning out to be the future third baseman of the Red Sox and Mitch Moreland locked up until 2020, it seemed pretty hard for Chavis to make any noise in the Majors, barring an amazing minor league performance.

Does this really hurt the team in general? Yes and no. Yes, as in it negatively affects his value but no, as in the Sox never really had to rely on Chavis during their championship years anyway. It’s too early to tell how the bullpen will pan out in 2018. A team can never use too many arms, however, and do not forget that Andrew Miller is available as a free agent at the other side of this season. Chavis messed up, but Sox fans should not worry.

@ELJGON