Tag Archives: ERA

Comparing the 2018 Red Sox to the 88 Teams Before Them

Leave a reply

The 2018 Red Sox are not only the team with the best record in baseball, they are the winningest team in franchise history. They have the chance to become the first team to reach 110+ wins since the 2001 Seattle Mariners. That is incredibly special, but many people want to ask: How special is it really?

Everyone can state that 106 wins is a rare feat, and they’re right. However, the numbers pertaining to how good this team is may shock you. Here, the 2018 Red Sox will be analyzed and compared to every single Red Sox team since 1930.

Offense

The 2018 Red Sox have two players who will likely eat up most of this season’s MVP votes in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. This team is an offensive catalyst that leads all of baseball in almost every single category. After a power absent offensive season in 2017, this team has transformed itself. One can almost call it mature or seasoned, at this point. Xander Bogaerts will more than likely reach the 100 RBI mark, Mookie will have a 30/30 year and Andrew Benintendi reached his career high in hits. They hit well against everyone, in any venue, and their record proves it.

Credit: Fangraphs (2018)

How Clutch Are They?

The Sox rank 25th in OPS (.787), 16th in wRC+ (109), 50th in batting average (.267), and 25th in runs scored (833). These are not mind-blowing numbers by any means. However, delving deeper into the numbers can show that the team is extremely clutch. In fact, they rank 3rd in a factor that Fangraphs literally calls “Clutch“. Granted, a Red Sox team without David Ortiz will never be as clutch as it could be. This 2018 team is different, and it can finally be said that they no longer need Big Papi in order to find success. On the season, the Red Sox rank first in RBIs which shows how efficient they have been. Not only do they get on base, but they also deliver when there is a chance to bring guys home.

The Red Sox currently have 199 home runs (12th) and will more than likely break the top 10 in franchise history. On the contrary, they walk at a rate of only 8.9, which lands them at the 59th spot. As far as strikeouts go, they rank 3rd highest at a 19.8% rate (which is still good for 5th lowest among teams in 2018). This trend can be attributed to a few things, such as the evolution of baseball or the aggressive hitting style Alex Cora has introduced. Another important asset of this team is the way they steal bases. They steal bases as efficiently as anyone has seen in recent years, even while lacking a true speedster. A 79.47 SB% ranks them first in all of baseball in 2018. The team has finally ditched the “Lead Sox” cliché.

(Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Pitching

The 2018 Red Sox are known to have many public opinions about their pitching staff. It seems that one day, the pitchers can do no wrong and the next day, they are the worst pitching staff ever. Many pitchers have had moments of brilliance in this historic season. One could say that the Sox are having a decent season especially when compared to better pitching staffs like the Astros or the Dodgers. Comparing the 2018 Sox to those of season’s past show where this team’s true strength is.

Credit: Fangraphs (2018)

Dominant Outings

A simple comparison to those teams of the last 88 years will reveal that the 2018 Red Sox rank 12th in ERA (3.67), 2nd in strikeouts (1499), 1st in batting average against (.234), 3rd in WHIP (1.24), and 7th in saves (46). The average fan may think that the hitting has been the main reason for success this season, but the pitching is just as important. Having a good pitching staff that limits the opposition is very important. On the contrary, runs win games and having a great offense is key to making a deep playoff push. Having both on the same team in the same season is a deadly combination.

A more analytical viewpoint will show that the Slider has been the most effective pitch for the 2018 Red Sox. They posted a wSL figure of 27.1 and a wFB of 32.1 which is 4th best in the last two decades, for fastballs. They attained an xFIP of 3.92, which coincides with their team ERA and alludes to their defense being a good source of help for the year. Finally, when it comes to SIERA (my favorite pitching stat), the Red Sox have amounted to a figure of 3.73. This basically means that the pitching staff does an above average job at limiting hits and runs scored (they rank 5th out of all teams in 2018).

(Copyright ©2018 ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.)

In The End

This team will be looked at as one of the best in Red Sox history. Regardless of if they win a World Series title or not, this shows how far they have come and how much more these kids have to give. Boston is stuck with this core for a while and that should be celebrated for the fact that many teams go decades without witnessing something like this.

@ELJGON

Brian Johnson Is Better Suited For Rotation

Leave a reply

Despite Drew Pomeranz struggles this season, Alex Cora said he would remain in the starting rotation. Following the acquisition of right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from Tampa Bay, this presumably leaves Brian Johnson without a spot in the rotation. If the Red Sox follow through with those plans, they will be making a serious mistake.

Minor League Career

Brian Johnson came through the system as a starting pitcher following a two-way career in college. He made 103 appearances during his minor league career, all starts. Not once, ever, did he pitch out of the bullpen during his professional career until this season. He made one start for the Red Sox in 2015 and five starts in 2017 in addition to his 103 minor league starts.

During Johnson’s time in the minor leagues, he won 32 games against 26 losses. More importantly, he pitched to a stellar 2.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Opponents batted just .216 against Johnson. This wasn’t just beating up on the low minors, as Johnson was 10-2 with a 1.75 ERA in AA Portland. In AAA, Johnson still posted a very good 3.18 ERA. Minor league success does not mean success in the big leagues, but it shows his success as a starting pitcher.

Brian Johnson enjoyed great success as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues.

Headed to the Bullpen

After six seasons of exclusively pitching as a starter, the Red Sox put Johnson in their bullpen to begin the season. This was the right move to make as they didn’t have room in their starting rotation. Johnson was out of minor league options so he had to be on the club or would be open to waivers. The bullpen did not agree with Johnson, however, which really isn’t a surprise. Johnson is not the type of pitcher who typically succeeds in relief; he doesn’t throw hard, he isn’t deceptive, and doesn’t have a funky delivery from the left side. His stuff isn’t going to play up out of the pen.

Johnson made 21 appearances out of the bullpen, totaling 30 innings pitched. His ERA was much too high for a starter, let alone a reliever at 5.10. He was relegated to mop-up roles, and deservedly so. He put lots of men on base, posting a 1.47 WHIP. The only thing he did better as a reliever was striking out a few more batters.

A Spot Opens Up

Brian Johnson got his chance to start again due to injuries in the Red Sox rotation, and he took advantage. Over six starts, Johnson has thrown 30 innings – the exact same amount of innings he has thrown in relief. While working up his arm strength, Johnson has pitched to a 1.80 ERA over his 30 innings starting. His WHIP, although not great, is much lower at 1.33. He sports a 5.10 ERA relieving, but a 1.80 ERA starting, both in 30 innings. The guy is just built to start. I’m not saying he will post a 1.80 ERA for the rest of the season if starting, but he will pitch better there than in relief.

Johnson’s best outing yet was his last one, pitching 5.2 shutout innings against the Twins. The start before he allowed two runs, but neither was earned over five innings. He’s getting stronger the more they stretch his arm out.

Drew Pomeranz

Drew Pomeranz, on the other hand, has an ERA of 6.91 this season as a starter. Why is he pitching again? Yes, he was very good last year, but he has not been the same pitcher. Throwing a fastball in the upper-80’s, it practically screams “hit me” when he misses his spot. Pomeranz only has one outing all year in which he allowed less than three runs. Over his last five starts, Pomeranz is 0-3 with an unsightly 8.57 ERA. Opponents have a slash line of .330/.425/.560/.985 during that time against him. Basically, the average hitter against him is turned into an MVP candidate lately.

Unlike Johnson, Pomeranz has success as a reliever, especially at the Major League level. He didn’t pan out as a starter at first and was moved to the bullpen in 2014. He didn’t have to worry about pitching longer and his stuff played up. In 10 relief appearances that season, Pomeranz had a 1.62 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The next season, Pomeranz pitched to a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 44 relief appearances. Compare this to his 4.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP as a starting pitcher that season and it is clear Pomeranz has had much more success in the bullpen, by and large.

Maybe something isn’t right with Pomeranz and he won’t be effective anywhere, but that certainly doesn’t mean the Red Sox should be trotting him back out to the mound every five days to get lit up. Try him in the bullpen, where he has been effective before and see how he does.

It makes no sense to throw a guy pitching well like Johnson back in the bullpen, especially when he has had zero professional success in that role and when Pomeranz is stinking up the mound.

 

Featured picture from FanRag Sports

The Hunt for a Better Bullpen

Leave a reply

If you watched Red Sox baseball this past week, you should have seen a trend forming. All week great starting pitching was followed by the bullpen crapping themselves. The stats in the last seven days can support this claim, as Sox starters have had a 3.11 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Sox relievers have had a 6.06 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. This has been frustrating to watch and almost makes us forget about Jackie Bradley Jr.’s woes at the plate.

Better Numbers are Ahead

The full season’s numbers don’t paint the same story, however. Sox relievers in the entire season have posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Starters also going on to average 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Clearly, we can justify this by saying the obvious: The Red Sox bullpen had a bad week. They were not clutch and they did not throw quality strikes. More was expected from this quality pitching staff.

The only way from here is up and the quality is ahead of us, folks. We have seen this bullpen do tremendous things when they try. Carson Smith is finally turning the corner, posting a 1.04 ERA in the last 28 days (11 games) with 12 strikeouts and one earned run. In the same sample size, Joe Kelly has posted a 0.77 ERA with 16 strikeouts and one earned run.

Reinforcements are Incoming

Don’t forget, more help is on the way. Tyler Thornburg is set to begin his rehab assignment in Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday 5/14. Steven Wright is also slated to join the Sox on the same day. A much needed depth will be added to this bullpen, but what can we expect from the two? Thornburg hasn’t pitched in a major league baseball game since 2016. Even then, I’m sure Cora will be using him sparingly since he’s apparently made of glass. Even Wright, who has recovered fully from his left knee injury and served his 15 game suspension for domestic violence, will be a mixed bag of results.

Also, at some point, Bobby Poyner should be getting called back up as well. Poyner posted a 2.25 ERA in seven regular season games with the Sox, and even has a 1.42 ERA in six games with the PawSox. If anybody outside of Brian Johnson slips up, expect to see Poyner in the big league bullpen for the majority of the season.

Dealin’ Dave at it Again?

What if this all doesn’t pan out the way we expect? There will be trade activity around the time of the deadline (or even sooner) and the Red Sox will be involved one way or another. Kelvin Herrera and Jeurys Familia are two names that will probably finish the 2018 season with a different team and are two pieces that can really bring a bullpen to the next level. Yes, both are closers and both are eligible for free agency in 2019, so they would be rentals. However, the Sox obviously wouldn’t dare move Craig Kimbrel from his job in the pen.

The Mets and the Royals both seem to be trending downward quickly and I would be shocked if they were playoff contenders this season. Also, both teams could use an outfielder which could potentially prompt a JBJ trade. Familia is known for his sinker which averages at 97 mph and Herrera for his 89 mph changeup. Also, they have been in the spotlight before as they actually faced each other in the 2015 World Series. That last part is something the Sox bullpen lacks: clutch factor.

Overall, these two players will find another home this season acting as rentals. The New York Yankees are also in the same boat as the Red Sox for the fact that their bullpen hasn’t been the best either. Also, going off of last year, the Astros bullpen may not be the best as well. All in all, the Sox won’t be alone when it comes to bolstering their relief pitchers, but hopefully this bad week has been a wake up call to the front office.

@ELJGON

The Three-Headed Monster — Sale, Pomeranz, and Porcello

Leave a reply

This season we have seen a slight improvement in our starting five-man pitching rotation.  Despite injuries, our rotation has seemed to hold it together. Recently, they REALLY seem to be holding it together.  Today, let’s focus on Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello.

CHRIS SALE

The addition of Chris Sale in the off-season was probably the best thing to ever happen, like an early Christmas gift to all of Boston. “The Red Sox have Chris Sale,” became the most popular statement in the off-season.  He hasn’t disappointed either, absolutely dominant since coming to Boston.  Currently, he stands 14-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 250 strikeouts.  He is tied for second in the league with wins, fourth in ERA, and first in strikeouts.  He is a possible Cy Young and MVP candidate this season.  The last pitcher to win both awards in the same season was Clayton Kershaw in 2014.

Adding to a terrific season, Sale started in back-to-back All Star games, and the first pitcher ever to start in back-to-back All Star games representing different teams. Sale was the 16th pitcher in MLB history to start an All-Star game and was the first to do so since Randy Johnson in 2000-2001.

To add onto Sale’s incredible season, here are some of his stats and his rankings amongst the league.

  • 1st in Strikeouts (250)
  • 1st in Win/ Loss % (0.737)
  • 1st in Strikeouts per 9 IP (12.833)
  • 2nd in Home Runs per 9 IP (0.77)
  • 2nd in Wins (14)
  • 3rd in Innings Pitched (175.1)
  • 4th in ERA (2.62)
  • 4th in Pitchers WAR (5.7)
  • 7th in WHIP (0.890)

DREW POMERANZ

If I came into this season saying Drew Pomeranz has potential to be Cy Young, you’d probably laugh at me. But, I’d laugh back because it’s actually pretty true. This season, Pomeranz is 13-4 with a 3.18 ERA. At home, he has a 7-2 record. Never in his career has he had 13 wins. His closest season was in 2016 when he had a total of 11 wins when he played a split season with the San Diego Padres and the Red Sox. Only once in his career did he have an ERA under 3.18 (2014 he posted a 2.35 ERA) but he pitched in less games and half the amount of innings.

In July and August combined, Pomeranz is 6-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 58 innings.  In the month of August alone, he has only allowed four runs in 21.2 innings of work. His strikeouts per 9 innings have increased from June, going from 8.3 to now 10.8.

His worst outings are usually recorded in his first inning. In just the first inning, Pomeranz has a 5.76 ERA and has allowed six home runs in just 25 innings. His best innings are usually the 2nd, 3rd and 6th.

  • 3rd in Wins (13)
  • 5th in Win/ Loss % (0.765)
  • 7th in Adjusted ERA (144)
  • 10th in ERA (3.18)

 

RICK PORCELLO

Rick Porcello is having an off year, commonly known as the Cy Young hangover. Porcello is 8-14 this season with a 4.48 ERA. His 14 losses are the most in his career since his 2015 season with the Red Sox where he went 9-15. He is tied in 3rd in the league with home runs allowed (29), 2nd in hits allowed (189), 1st in losses (14), and 7th in earned runs (82).  Despite putting up terrible numbers, let’s look at his positives.

  • 2nd in Games Started (26)
  • 2nd in Complete Games (3)
  • 6th in Innings Pitched (164.2)
  • 17th in Strikeouts (149)

In the month of August, Porcello is however turning everything around. He is 4-0 in his past four starts and has an opposing batting average of .242.  Opposing batting average from the previous 22 games of the season was .291 and he was 4-14 during that span (April 3-July 28).  The first half of the season, Porcello was posting a 4-11 record with a 4.75 ERA. The second half of the season, he has improved tremendously with a 4-3 record and posted a 3.77 ERA in 7 games. Hopefully something clicked in his brain and he continues with what he is doing.

In conclusion, our pitching staff is doing better in the second half of the season.  Doug Fister is 2-2 in his past four outings including a one-hit complete game the other night against the red hot Cleveland Indians. Eduardo Rodriguez seems to be finally figuring out what he’s been doing wrong despite going 0-0 in his last four outings. Hopefully this consistency in pitching “Sales” us into the postseason and collects some wins and a ring.