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Red Sox Bullpen Target: Greg Holland

Contract

What makes Holland such an attractive target is his salary. He is on a one year contract for $3.25 Million, with two $1 Million bonuses he is likely to achieve. Because half the season is gone, the Red Sox would only be on the hook for half the base plus bonuses. This fits into their extremely limited “salary cap’ space.

Pedigree

Greg Holland was the linchpin of the vaunted Kansas City 2014 AL Champion bullpen. During that postseason run he had a 0.82 ERA for a team that lost to the San Francisco Giants. But they did go on a run from the Wild Card all the way to the World Series. The next year the Royals won it all, but Holland went down in August of that year with an injury that led to Tommy John surgery. All in all he saved 145 games for the Royals over parts of six seasons.

He took 2016 off recovering from TJS, before emerging in Colorado to lead the league in Saves with 41 in 2017. He toiled in the setup role for the Cardinals and Nationals in 2018, predictably struggling without being the Closer for the first time in years, with a combined 4.66 ERA. This year he landed the Closer role in Arizona and has 14 Saves with a 3.30 ERA.

Arizona

Currently the Diamondbacks are 46-45 and 13.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They are 1.5 games out of the NL Wildcard. When spring training started they were hoping Archie Bradley would grab hold of the Closer role. Bradley has disappointed, but others, including Yoan Lopez (34 Innings, 11 Holds, 1.59 ERA, .94 WHIP), have stepped up. Over the next two weeks, if they falter even a little, they will look to sell and Holland will be a prime candidate to move.

Low Price

Because Holland’s ERA has risen from 2.08 to 3.30 recently he should come cheap. Cheaper than the popular names out there like Will Smith of the Giants or Felipe Vazquez of the Pirates. Likely it would be low level minor leaguers.

The Diamondbacks’ GM is former interim Red Sox GM Mike Hazen. He was Dave Dombrowski’s top aide during the 2016 season before taking the GM job in Arizona. There’s a lot of familiarity between the two teams. This means a deal could happen quickly. Holland has had time to get used to not being the main Closer on a team. Nathan Eovaldi will most likely not be used on back to back days. This would be an under the radar addition that could pay huge dividends.

Featured image via Myfantasysportstalk.com

A Cheaper Closing Option

The Early Years

Greg Holland was once one of the most dominant late-inning bullpen options in the game. His rookie season of 2011 he went 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The next season he went 7-4 and saved 16 games as he morphed into the closer’s role in Kansas City.

Over the next two seasons, Holland was as good as anyone. Between 2013 and 2014 he saved 93 games. He had a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over that two year stretch and struck out 13.4 batters per nine innings. The results were staggering.

Holland faded a bit in 2015 but still put up serviceable numbers. It was then revealed that he needed Tommy John Surgery, which may have explained some of his drop-off in production.

Post Tommy John Surgery

The days of Holland being one of the best closer’s in baseball may be a thing of the past, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good one. Fresh off his Tommy John Surgery and missing the entire 2016 season, Holland signed with the Colorado Rockies. Probably not the best place to sign for someone coming off an arm surgery. Nevertheless, Holland was an All-Star for them.

In 2017, Holland led the National League with 41 games saved. He had a solid 1.15 WHIP and 11 strike outs per nine innings. Not quite what he was in his best years, but certainly effective. His ERA of 3.61 doesn’t tell the whole story. At the end of July, after four months of pitching, Holland had a 1.64 ERA. Opponents were batting just .169 against him with a .268 on-base percentage and .262 slugging percentage. His numbers weren’t far off from his dominant seasons.

Holland was far more hittable from that point forward, but you must remember, he hadn’t pitched in over a year following surgery. On top of that, he was pitching in Coors Field and the high altitude of Denver, Colorado. The high altitude has been known to put extra stress on a pitcher’s arm. He likely was just running out of a gas.

The Ups and Downs of 2018

2018 tells the story of why Holland can likely be had on the cheap. He turned down the Rockies contract offer and hit the open market. Many players remained unsigned late into the offseason, and it seemed to affect the pitcher’s the most. Holland did not sign until March 31st, missing the entire Spring Training. This likely threw him out of whack and had a huge detriment on his pitching.

Holland was a total disaster for the Cardinals. Over 25 innings he walked as many batters as he struck out (22). He was extremely hittable, allowing 12.2 hits per nine innings. His previous career high since his 15-game stint in 2010 was under eight hits per nine. His ERA and WHIP were unsightly, at 7.92 and 2.24. Nothing went right in St. Louis. As a result, he was ultimately released on August 1st.

When the Nationals picked him up on the cheap later that month, they got the Holland of old. In 24 appearances in DC, Holland allowed just two runs on nine hits. He was 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings. Those results are much more what people had come to expect from Greg Holland. Leading us into this offseason, where he comes off a mixed bag of a season.

Greg Holland of the Washington Nationals pitches in the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on August 17, 2018(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Conclusion

Is Holland going to be one of the best closers in all of baseball? No, probably not. But he was still an All-Star and led the league in saves just two years ago. After not having a normal offseason, and no spring training last year, he did not have a peak performance. However, with a change of scenery, he looked like the Greg Holland he used to be. Therefore, it would seem likely that if he were to sign a contract earlier in the offseason this year, that team would likely be getting a good pitcher for the back end of their bullpen.

Currently, the Red Sox don’t have anyone with closing experience on their roster. The top candidates on the roster to close at the moment appear to be either Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier. Barnes has been a relatively effective setup man, but he isn’t one of the best in the game. Brasier on the other hand has very little experience, and was on the verge of retirement last offseason. The Red Sox could use a guy with experience on the team, and Holland could maybe be just as good as Craig Kimbrel was last year for far less money.

Holland is likely searching for a one-year deal to restore his value. He will want to have a good season and enter free agency again next offseason coming off a good year, looking for one final big payday. The Red Sox should jump.

Featured picture from Royalsreview.com

The Red Sox Should Move on from Kimbrel

The Contract

Craig Kimbrel was always going to command a big contract for a relief pitcher. With news the other day that his agent, Scott Boras, claims Kimbrel to be the greatest closer ever, one can expect they are aiming for a big-time payday. What would that entail? My guess is Kimbrel will receive a five-year contract somewhere in the 90-100 million dollar range.

With Kimbrel turning 31 next spring, a 5-year contract could be a bit risky. His velocity might decline over the next couple of years, hurting his effectiveness. As things stand now, his effectiveness already waxes and wanes. For how good Kimbrel is, his control tends to disappear at times, at which point fans are in for a rocky rollercoaster ride in the ninth inning. Do you really want Kimbrel taking up 18-20 million of payroll each year for the next five years? That money would be better spent elsewhere. In addition, with the qualifying offer rejected, the Red Sox would pick up a draft pick if Kimbrel signed elsewhere.

This isn’t meant to criticize Kimbrel, he has been one of the better closers of all-time. He has a career ERA under 2.00 and 333 saves. Just two years ago he had another historic season, nearly striking out half of all batters he faced. However, when looking at his other two seasons in Boston, Kimbrel has been good, but nothing special. In 2016 and 2018 Kimbrel has a 3.04 ERA and walks nearly five batters per nine innings pitched. He’s still a strikeout machine and typically gets the job done, but it raises some questions.

More Important Contracts

Mookie Betts jumps to mind as a player the Red Sox need to extend. As the probable 2018 American League MVP and already a three-time Gold Glove winner, Betts is going to command a very large contract. The Red Sox will need plenty of available space to make an extension with Betts work. It might not happen this year, but with only two arbitration years left before he hits free agency, the Red Sox can’t be sleeping on this.

Chris Sale is another obvious guy as he enters his final year before free agency. Sale has been everything the Sox could have hoped for when they traded for him, going 29-12 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 over his two seasons with the team. Sale is probably a top-five pitcher in all of baseball, it would be hard to lose that. With free agency looming, the Sox should be locking him up long-term this offseason.

Xander Bogaerts is also entering his final season before free agency. A two-time Silver Slugger coming off his best season to date, Bogaerts isn’t going to be cheap to retain either. Bogaerts hit 23 home runs, drove in 103 runners and posted a career-best .883 OPS this season. At a premium position, Bogaerts is an important player and won’t be a cheap one. Can the Sox retain him, Betts and Bogaerts even if they don’t keep Kimbrel?

The Red Sox shouldn’t be doling out massive contracts to guys who pitch 50 innings a year when they have MVPs and Silver Sluggers and potential Cy Young Award winners to lock up.

Free Agent Options

The Red Sox might be able to sign two late-inning options for the price of just Kimbrel, with considerably fewer years of payroll tied up in them. That is the direction they should go in, sign two, maybe even three guys to one or two-year deals to lock down the end of the bullpen. If they keep Joe Kelly, they’d likely be looking at signing two.

David Robertson

Robertson has had a nice career but has always done better in a setup role than as a closer. He had a sub-2.00 ERA his final three years with the Yankees before signing with the White Sox to be their closer. He did a good job but had an ERA above 3.00 all three seasons as their closer. At 34 years old come next season, he isn’t someone the Sox would want to give more than a two-year deal.

Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller is coming off a down season, so it might make some sense for the Sox to pounce. He too will be turning 34 next spring, so he won’t command a long-term deal. Coming off a down season, there is a chance he will be looking to sign a one year deal to reestablish some value. In his down season, Miller still struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. In his four previous seasons, Miller was 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 14.5 K/9. Those are some insane numbers, ones I would love to give him a chance to rebound to.

Adam Ottavino

Ottavino has less mileage on his arm than the other guys, but he’s actually about to turn 33. He has missed time with arm injuries more than once, but when healthy he is good. Pitching in Colorado, Ottavino had a 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 13 K/9 this past season.

Cody Allen

Allen might be looking for a one year deal after having his worst season as a pro this past year. At just 29 years old, he shouldn’t be nearing the end of his effectiveness, and he might be a bounce-back candidate. In the five years before this past season, Allen had an ERA under 3.00 each season, coming to a 2.59 ERA for that five year period. He has saved 147 games over the past five seasons and strikes out 11.5 batters per nine innings for his career.

These are just some of the many options the Red Sox could explore to help form their bullpen. Joakim Soria, Greg Holland, Jeurys Familia, and Zach Britton are several more options that could be had for a fraction of the cost of Craig Kimbrel. Soria and Holland could probably be had on one-year deals. The Red Sox should be looking to sign a couple of the above players to vie for the closer role.

Miller spent four seasons with the Red Sox already. Staff photo by Christopher Evans.

Featured picture from Yahoo! Sports

The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

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Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

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By Boston Fans, For Boston Fans