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MLB Season Win Totals: Over/Unders

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The build up to the start of the baseball season is always a lot of fun for many reasons. Maybe you love fantasy baseball, or maybe you just love the sounds, smells and feelings that come with baseball. The start of the season brings something for everyone, and that includes the gamblers among us. Last week as a staff we looked at some of our MVP and Cy Young picks. If you are looking to have a bet on those markets you can find our feelings there. Instead I will focus on the season win totals and try to identify some juicy over/under bets for you to take advantage of.

I will start with the Red Sox but there is not really a bet to be had. The starting line is set at 94.5, a whopping 13.5 wins less than they had last season. However, when you look closer at elements such as the Pythagorean win total (103) and their record in one score games (25-14) there is room for regression in that total. Add in the lack of a lock down closer and a win total in the mid-90s is a very likely outcome.

Houston Astros Over 96.5

It may seem aggressive to project any team to win more than 96.5 games, but the Astros have the talent to do it. They are perhaps the best all-around team in the American League and their division rivals often blow hot and cold. Last season they won 103 games, but their Pythagorean total was even higher at 108. Additionally, that record came despite just being .500 in one run games. The combination of the Pythagorean total and the one-run record suggest to me the Astros could get over 100 wins once again this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5

2019 is a fascinating season for the darlings of the 2018 season. The Brewers stunned the league and nearly made it all the way to the NLCS. However, the fact that were a surprise package means there are question marks for 2019. Their rotation lacks both ace level upside and struggles for depth. They also play in a division which has quality from 1-5, which could make repeating their 96 win season tough. Equally their Pythagorean win total was five lower at 91, and their record in one run games was a whopping 33-19. Both of those numbers scream regression, and combined with my other concerns I think the Brewers slip back to a .500 baseball team this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Over 93.5

Another super aggressive projection for a relatively high win total. However, they were actually relatively unlucky to only win 92 games, as their Pythagorean win total was up at 102 wins. No team in the majors had a bigger difference between those two totals. The Dodgers have lost some quality offensively, but they still have a ton of talent. In addition, their rotation has both the high end skill and the depth that you want from a major contender. The Dodgers will be right there come playoff conversation time this season.

Baltimore Orioles Under 59.5

To end let’s bring this back to the AL East, the 2018 last placed team overall. The Orioles finished the season with 47 wins and they may actually have been lucky to get that many. The Orioles won an incredible 70% of their one run games in 2018. If that regressed back towards 50% this season they could struggle to reach 45 wins. However, they were slightly hard done by last season if their Pythagorean win total of 55 is to be believed. The issue there is that even if that was true they would still have been four wins below their over/under this season. A team that was that bad, and actually lost talent during the season, is a prime candidate to be bad again.

Image credit: Sports Illustrated

The 2018 Red Sox Are One of the Greatest Ever

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The Red Sox completed their ultimate goal last night, dispatching the Dodgers in five games. It was a fitting end to a season that saw them set a franchise record for wins. So where do these Red Sox rank among some of the greatest teams in Major League history?

Total Wins

The Red Sox won 108 games in the regular season, setting a franchise record. The 1912 Red Sox, who also won the World Series, won 105 games in a 154 game season. The Red Sox 108 wins places them in a tie for ninth most all-time. Due to the shorter seasons pre-1961, they rank a bit further down in terms of winning percentage. The case can be made though that this team had a tougher road.

There was no free agency in those days, so teams did not need to fear losing their players. Also, there was no postseason. If a team had the best record in their league, they made the World Series. There was no going through teams like the Yankees and the Astros again in the

Graphic from the Baseball Nexus

postseason after beating them out in the regular season.

Since free agency began, only the 2001 Mariners and the 1998 Yankees won more games than the Red Sox did this year. The same holds true for total amount of wins, when combining regular season and postseason wins. The 1998 Yankees won 125 and the Seattle Mariners won 120, and the Mariners did not even make the World Series that season, let alone win it. No other team in baseball history, pre-free agency or post-free agency, won more than 119 games; So this Red Sox team is in some rarefied air.

Postseason Road

It is safe to say that no team in history has faced the tall task the Red Sox just went through in the postseason. After winning 108 regular season games, the Red Sox reward was facing a 100 win Yankees team. The 100 wins from the Yankees was more than any National League team won. The Red Sox steamrolled through their rivals in four games however.

Next up was the 103 win and defending champion Houston Astros. Despite the Red Sox having the top record, many thought the Astros would be too strong for them. They were, after all, the defending champions and had improved their pitching staff this season. The Astros 103 wins were two more than they accomplished last season and placed behind only this seasons Red Sox and last season’s Dodgers for the most wins of the decade.

After dropping the first game, the Red Sox had no more issues with the Astros, taking four straight to dispatch of the defending world champions. The final three of those wins came in Houston and included beating future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in the deciding game.

In the World Series, they faced the Dodgers, who were playing for the championship for the second consecutive season. The Red Sox didn’t have much trouble with them either, winning in just five games. It took the Dodgers 18 innings to win one game from the Red Sox. In that 18 inning affair, the Red Sox top four spots in the batting order combined to go 0-28, and it still took 18 innings and an egregious miscue in the field from second baseman Ian Kinsler for the Dodgers to win a game.

Ian Kinsler looks in disbelief after his error led to the Dodgers tying the game.

Star Power

As all great teams do, the Red Sox weren’t short of star power. Mookie Betts looks like he will probably win the MVP Award, after going 30-30 while leading the league in hitting. His closest contender for the award might be teammate J.D. Martinez, who hit .330 with 43 home runs and 130 runs batted in. On the mound, Chris Sale was the favorite for Cy Young until a couple disabled list stints in the second half.

And yet, despite the star power, the Red Sox did not win because of that. This truly was a team effort, showing just how great of a team it is. Mookie Betts batted just .217 with a .699 OPS in the World Series and hit only one home run the entire postseason. J.D. Martinez was a more human .278 hitter with an .881 OPS in the World Series. Chris Sale did not win a game in the series.

Instead, everyone pitched in, with journeyman Steve Pearce taking home the World Series MVP honors. The much-maligned David Price got his redemption. After struggling in his first couple postseason outings, running his playoff record to 0-9, Price bested Justin Verlanded in the deciding game of the ALCS, then won games two and five in the World Series. Nathan Eovaldi was practically not human, pitching six innings of relief in game three while routinely pushing triple digits with his fastball. He then volunteered to pitch again later that same day.

Boston Red Sox’s Steve Pearce celebrates after his home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning in Game 4 of the World Series. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Conclusion

So where do these Red Sox rank amongst the greatest teams ever assembled? It is hard to pinpoint an exact place, especially factoring in the different styles of play and the way the game has changed over the years. However, it is clear this team is near the top. The 1927 and 1998 Yankees usually get talked about, as do the 1929 Athletics. The Big Red Machine of the 1970’s is up there as well, but this team can win with them all, and winning is truly all that matters.

Featured image from Newshub.com

Boston Red Sox World Series Championship Game 5 Recap

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The 2018 World Champion Boston Red Sox beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 and cemented their status as the most dominant team in baseball.

Steve Pearce

This was a win that felt inevitable from the first pitch.  Thanks to World Series MVP Steve Pearce it pretty much was.

Over 3 at bats at the end of game 4 and the beginning of game 5 Pearce was unstoppable.  2 Home Runs, a Double, and 6 RBI.  He threw in another homer in the 8th to put the cherry on top of this Championship.

Turns out that kind of performance puts you shoulder to shoulder with MLB Legends.  Here’s a couple of facts that stand out.

  • Steve Pearce joins Babe Ruth in 1927 and Lou Gehrig in 1928 with at least one home run and three RBI in back to back World Series Games.
  • Pearce, Ruth, and Ted Kluszewski are the only players in history to have a multiple home run game at age 35 or older in the World Series

Pearce told Andrew Benintendi before the series started that he wanted to win World Series MVP so he could go to the owners’ box at a Patriots game and sit with Bob Kraft and Bon Jovi.  Mission accomplished my man.

I thought this World Series would invoke Legends, little did I know Steve Pearce would join them.

David Price

David Price dopped the mic on his postseason failures for all time.  In this game he went 7 plus innings, 1 run, 5 strikeouts.  Doing that on full rest would’ve been beyond outstanding.

But he didn’t just out-duel Clayton Kershaw, he did it on shortest of short rest.  He pitched in 4 out of the 5 World Series games.  In the game he didn’t pitch he warmed up.  On the biggest stage he had the best stretch of his career.

Alex Cora on David Price:  “David loves to be ready to compete on a daily basis.  He enjoys being available, and he was available the whole time.  (He texted) Count on me, use me, he just wanted to compete.”

Chris Sale: “I’m gonna tell my grand kids about (playing with) David Price.”

Here’s some pretty sweet play by play that shows David Price’s joy.

Chris Sale punches out Manny Machado.  More on this in a moment.

Christian Vazquez runs to Chris Sale and look who gets there next.

What a moment for David Price, just look at his face!

Live it up David, you earned it.

Chris Sale

This says it all when it comes to what Chris Sale means to this team.  Look at his teammates as he comes out of the bullpen to start the 9th inning last night.

I didn’t see Craig Kimbrel getting a standing ovation by his teammates coming into any games this post season.

And the way he had Manny Machado flailing on that immaculate slider.  Satisfaction of the highest order.

Alex Cora

All night in the post game it was a Song of Alex Cora from all the players and ownership.  Because he put the players in a position to succeed.  He communicated at an all time level.  He was outstanding at every little thing.

Alex Cora has been the Night’s King since Hardhome: All out aggressive and piling up wins.

He’s pulled all the right levers this postseason and he was on his game last night.

Steve Pearce batting third?  Check.  David Price batting in the top of the eighth?  Check.  Bring in Chris Sale who will probably need surgery next week to close?  Check mate.

He has won the World Series as a player, a bench coach, and now a manager.

Ownership

Take a bow guys.  4 Championships in 14 years.  They cleaned house after last year and chose the right guy in Alex Cora.  These guys are good.

Nathan Eovaldi

A quick word about iron man Nathan Eovaldi.  Take it away John Henry: “I mean he set us up, so that for the next two nights our bullpen was in good shape, and their wasn’t, that was the difference.”

It could be said no Eovaldi, no World Series Championship.

Now it truly is time to party.

Manny Machado to LA Needs to Happen

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The fact Manny Machado is still in a Baltimore Orioles uniform is a concern. Mainly because Machado was predicted to be traded this past off-season. Rumors circulated that Machado could have been dealt to the Yankees, and thank God we avoided that nightmare. So the question is, “If traded, where will Manny Machado land?” That destination has to be the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the timing for that to happen is inevitable.

A Surprise Job Opening

Let’s take a little trip back in time. In September 2015, the Dodgers called up a twenty-one year old shortstop named Corey Seager. Since then, you can say he has been their guy with the bat and in the field. Seager hit .337 in that one month during 2015 and possessed a .949 fielding percentage. In 2016, however, Seager really made his mark. In his first full season, Seager accumulated a .308 BA with 27 home runs and 72 RBI’s. He also took home National League Rookie of the Year honors, a Silver Slugger and an All-Star appearance in 2016 as well. In 2017, Seager was also on the All-Star Game roster and a Silver Slugger award winner for a consecutive year.

So Corey Seager’s pretty good at baseball and has been the backbone of the Dodgers since his emergence in the league. This season however, Seager’s season was cut short due to after being diagnosed with Tommy John and needing surgery which ended his 2018 campaign.  With a huge hole in the Dodgers lineup a move must be made to replace Corey Seager. That move has to be bringing Manny Machado to Los Angeles.

Could It Happen?

Machado, who is now a shortstop, is an ideal fit for the club, and it’s a no-brainer. Machado is entering his final season with Baltimore and is looking to take his talents elsewhere. With Baltimore clearly in a rebuilding stage and the Dodgers possessing one of the top farm systems, it will surely benefit both clubs. With Machado going to Los Angeles, it would provide some bright prospects in the Dodgers organization to benefit a ball club like the Orioles.

Machado replacing Corey Seager is an ideal situation that needs to happen. Although the Braves and Yankees could be possible destinations as well, this deal would seem to make the most sense. If a deal is not made by Los Angeles and Baltimore it would be a waste of an opportunity for both clubs.

National League West Division Predictions

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National League West Predictions

With the season approaching, I think it’s time to start dishing out my division predictions for 2018. I’ll go through each division looking at their pros and cons with my final standings at the end. So here we are starting off with the National League West.

I have to be honest, I was surprised when Eric Hosmer decided to sign with the San Diego Padres. Leaving Kansas City, where he was idolized as their ideal franchise player, was honestly a bold move by Hosmer. He left Kansas City to become the new golden boy of the Padres. Sorry Wil Myers. Signing Hosmer for an eight year deal is not only a great addition for San Diego, but the NL West as a whole.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are heavily favored to once again win the division with basically everyone returning, with the exception of Darvish. They bring back a young ball club lead by the likes of Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, and reigning ROY Cody Bellinger. Their rotation once again is led by Clayton Kershaw, who is expected to be dominant once again, while reigning NL Reliever of the Year Kenley Jansen takes the helm of the bullpen.

Arizona Diamondbacks

J.D. Martinez signing with Boston was not a huge hit for the Diamondbacks. Arizona is ready to compete for another postseason berth in 2018. The rotation of Zack Greinke, Robby Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley will be a key component toward the team’s overall success. Archie Bradley is currently looking to contend as the team’s closer role along with Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano. The signing of Alex Avila strengthens their catching core, while Goldschmidt and Lamb will continue to add intimidation in their lineup.

Colorado Rockies

Colorado is also looking to get another taste of the postseason in 2018. After signing CarGO to a one-year deal, the Rockies seem to be aiming to continuing to maintain power within the lineup along with Arenado, Story, and LeMahieu. The concern with the team once again will be pitching. Hopefully the team can boost their rotation before the deadline, but don’t hold your breath.

San Francisco Giants

With the additions of McCutchen and Longoria, the Giants are looking to bounce back at the top of the division after suffering a disappointing 2017. The two newcomers will definitely bring a spark to the lineup, which includes returners Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford and Hunter Pence. Mad Bum, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija will anchor the staff with a strong bullpen led by Mark Melancon and Hunter Strickland. Simply put, don’t sleep on San Fran in 2018.

San Diego Padres

Finally with San Diego, there’s really not much to say. Signing Hosmer, however, is a huge step forward for the ball club. The fact they posses the #1 farm system in baseball doesn’t hurt either. Freddy Galvis and Wil Myers are looking to stay consistent this season in attempting to spark the offense. The return of Chase Headley brings a familiar face to the ball club and Carter Capps is looking to continue as the anchor out of the bullpen. Don’t expect the Padres to make much noise this season, but they are going in the right direction.

Final Standing Prediction

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. San Francisco Giants
  3. Colorado Rockies
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. San Diego Padres

The Red Sox Don’t Need JD Martinez

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It seems that the Red Sox are the only team in the MLB that are staying put during free agency. However there’s no need to rush to meet JD Martinez’s demands to get the slugger the team needs.

We’re still waiting for big free agents to sign this winter. As of today, outfielder JD Martinez will wait out spring training in order to get the deal he wants. I’m not sure about the rest of Red Sox Nation, but I don’t want that sort of selfish player on my team. Unless this standoff comes to a close before truck day, I would consider other options until him and Boras get a reality check.

Before we throw away the idea of signing Martinez, let’s crunch some numbers. We are all aware of his stats last season. In previous years the numbers tell us a completely different story. His former best statistical season was 2015. In 158 games played, he hit a .282 batting average with 38 home runs and 102 RBIs. Sounds like a great season, right? In the three seasons prior he hit for twenty-three, seven, and eleven home runs. His slugging percentage in the previous three seasons were a modest .553, .378, and .375. The league averages for those years were .386, .396, and .405. In a hitter-friendly ballpark such as Fenway, those numbers aren’t going to cut it.

There’s no guarantee that he can’t reproduce the same or close to the same numbers as he did last year. Does that mean a team who hasn’t had the best of luck with long-term deals should dish out a seven-year commitment based on one good season? In all reality, they will most likely agree on a deal in the 3-5 year range. Here is a list of other options just in case:

Mike Moustakas 3B, Kansas City Royals

The third baseman is also struggling to find a long-term deal. There have been rumblings that he might settle for a one or two-year deal to improve his worth. If his value continues to decline, Moustakas would be an easy steal if his bat is willing to be a full-time DH. Potential deal: one year, $18 million.

Jose Bautista OF, Toronto Blue Jays

The longtime outfielder for the division rival Blue Jays has definitely played his last game at the Rogers Centre. While being on the Red Sox’s radar as of last offseason, the 37-year-old should only be offered a one year deal. Potential deal: one year, $8.5 million.

Hanley Ramirez DH/1B, Boston Red Sox

There’s a saying that goes, “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. That applies with this situation. Hanley’s success with the Red Sox has grown since his return to the team. The power hitter did well in the home run department but lulled fans with his .242 batting average. If new coaches and staff can help revamp this offense into a dangerous home run hitting team, then there’s no problem keeping the lineup the same.

Yu Darvish P, Los Angeles Dodgers

If the stalemate doesn’t come to a resolution, the team could turn to bolster their starting rotation. If Dave Dombrowski and company have enough faith in their offense, this could be their best route financially to set up for next year’s free agency class. Potential deal: four years, $80 million.

No matter where this saga takes the team, the Red Sox have enough talent to keep them in the playoff hunt. With a new staff that is built to improve home run efficiency, the Red Sox have nothing to worry about for now.