Tag Archives: Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Season Win Totals: Over/Unders

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The build up to the start of the baseball season is always a lot of fun for many reasons. Maybe you love fantasy baseball, or maybe you just love the sounds, smells and feelings that come with baseball. The start of the season brings something for everyone, and that includes the gamblers among us. Last week as a staff we looked at some of our MVP and Cy Young picks. If you are looking to have a bet on those markets you can find our feelings there. Instead I will focus on the season win totals and try to identify some juicy over/under bets for you to take advantage of.

I will start with the Red Sox but there is not really a bet to be had. The starting line is set at 94.5, a whopping 13.5 wins less than they had last season. However, when you look closer at elements such as the Pythagorean win total (103) and their record in one score games (25-14) there is room for regression in that total. Add in the lack of a lock down closer and a win total in the mid-90s is a very likely outcome.

Houston Astros Over 96.5

It may seem aggressive to project any team to win more than 96.5 games, but the Astros have the talent to do it. They are perhaps the best all-around team in the American League and their division rivals often blow hot and cold. Last season they won 103 games, but their Pythagorean total was even higher at 108. Additionally, that record came despite just being .500 in one run games. The combination of the Pythagorean total and the one-run record suggest to me the Astros could get over 100 wins once again this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5

2019 is a fascinating season for the darlings of the 2018 season. The Brewers stunned the league and nearly made it all the way to the NLCS. However, the fact that were a surprise package means there are question marks for 2019. Their rotation lacks both ace level upside and struggles for depth. They also play in a division which has quality from 1-5, which could make repeating their 96 win season tough. Equally their Pythagorean win total was five lower at 91, and their record in one run games was a whopping 33-19. Both of those numbers scream regression, and combined with my other concerns I think the Brewers slip back to a .500 baseball team this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Over 93.5

Another super aggressive projection for a relatively high win total. However, they were actually relatively unlucky to only win 92 games, as their Pythagorean win total was up at 102 wins. No team in the majors had a bigger difference between those two totals. The Dodgers have lost some quality offensively, but they still have a ton of talent. In addition, their rotation has both the high end skill and the depth that you want from a major contender. The Dodgers will be right there come playoff conversation time this season.

Baltimore Orioles Under 59.5

To end let’s bring this back to the AL East, the 2018 last placed team overall. The Orioles finished the season with 47 wins and they may actually have been lucky to get that many. The Orioles won an incredible 70% of their one run games in 2018. If that regressed back towards 50% this season they could struggle to reach 45 wins. However, they were slightly hard done by last season if their Pythagorean win total of 55 is to be believed. The issue there is that even if that was true they would still have been four wins below their over/under this season. A team that was that bad, and actually lost talent during the season, is a prime candidate to be bad again.

Image credit: Sports Illustrated

Bogaerts

The Brewers Are After Xander Bogaerts

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There are rumors out of Milwaukee that the Brewers are after Xander Bogaerts. Why would the Red Sox trade him, and what could they expect in return?

Salary

The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.

Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.

Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.

Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.

What The Sox Could Expect In Trade

Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.

Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.

Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.

Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.

Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.

Division Predictions: NL Central

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The National League Central should be interesting this season. From the huge additions in Yelich and Cain by the “Brew Crew”, the signing of Marcell Ozuna in St. Louis, and to a very talented Cubs team. They will draw some attention this season as it looks the division just got more competitive.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals definitely upgraded with the acquisition of Marcell Ozuna in the trade with Miami. Ozuna adds power to a lineup which includes the likes of Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. Martinez is the anchor of the rotation, which includes Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals added a huge piece in Ozuna and could turn a lot of heads this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The losses of Andrew McCutchen and ace Gerrit Cole definitely have taken a toll on the Pirates. The loss of the two stars puts a damper on their hopes of succeeding within the division this season. Josh Harrison is leading a lineup that has certainly lost a lot of spunk with the loss of McCutchen. However, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco may provide a little help for Harrison in the long run. Jameson Tailon and Ivan Nova will look to take the heap of the load in regards to the pitching staff with the loss of Gerrit Cole.

Cincinnati Reds

The only name to focus on in regards to the Reds is Joey Votto. Votto, coming just two points shy of the NL MVP last season, is looking to have another how you say a very “Joey Votto” type of year. Last season, he slugged 36 homers and 100 RBI’s while compiling an average of .320. He’s definitely capable of topping off numbers like that this season as he possibly may have a shot at another MVP in the future before he finally calls it quits. They also have Billy Hamilton and I heard that he’s the fastest guy in the league or something.

Milwaukee Brewers

Watch out for the Brew Crew this season. Milwaukee added two HUGE additions in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. This will definitely provide a large impact in the lineup which includes Eric Thames (31 Home runs in 2017) and “The Mayor of Ding Dong City” himself Travis Shaw. The Brewers lineup looks scary this season which is going to be very exciting to watch. All they need is the right pieces in the pitching staff and you have a club that could go deep into the postseason.

Chicago Cubs

Straight up, they’re going to win the division this year. It’s almost no contest if you don’t take the Brewers lineup in account. The addition of Yu Darvish is simply a luxury as it only makes them even better than they already were. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo return as the big threats of a very talented lineup. Which is also compiled of Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Wilson Contreras, and Jason Heyward. Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr. (who is entering his third season after hitting .298 last campaign), look to provide their talents in a big way per usual. With a rotation of Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, newly acquired Yu Darvish, José Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood there is no doubt at all the Cubs take the division again this season.

Final Standings

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds