Tag Archives: MLB Postseason

Red Sox-Yankees ALDS Preview Extravaganza

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It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.

I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:

Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.

Starting Lineup

The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.

And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.

The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.

The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.

Slight Edge: Yankees

Starting Pitching

Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale

Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price

Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…

Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)

Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)

Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen

I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.

The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).

The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.

Major Edge: Yankees

Bench X Factor

Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:

Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.

For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.

Edge: Red Sox

Manager

Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.

I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.

Edge: Red Sox

The Pick

I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.

But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?

RED SOX IN 5

Red Sox Break Franchise Record For Wins In A Season

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Move over Tris Speaker and Smokey Joe Wood, there’s a new Sox sheriff in town.

Boston won its 106th game Monday night, defeating the hapless Orioles 6-2 at Fenway Park. With the win, the 2018 Sox have now won more regular season games than any other team in the franchise’s history. That’s a pretty incredible feat, considering the Red Sox have been around for 118 seasons.

As if breaking a century-plus old record wasn’t enough, the Red Sox also clinched the best record in baseball. Home field advantage: actually good.

Mookie Betts: Award Tour

As has been the case for nearly all of 2018, Boston’s victory was spearheaded by the AL MVP favorite. Betts was electrifying once again, going 2-5 with a 2-run homer and a stolen base.

The dinger was an absolute rocket, and capped off a four-run 2nd inning for the Sox. Orioles starter Dylan Bundy hung a 1-0 breaking ball over the dead-center of the plate, and Betts went windshield-hunting on the Mass Pike:

Getting taken deep is nothing new for Bundy; he’s allowed an MLB-worst 39 big flies this season. As for Betts, he’s certifiably on fire again. He has 10 hits in his last 20 ABs, with 3 HR and 8 doubles. He’s also only one steal away from a 30-30 season. Betts has all but locked up the MVP award with an absolutely stellar year. He leads the majors in batting average and bWAR, and has been the most consistently excellent all-around player in baseball. Betts’ 2018 season is also the best individual Red Sox season (per bWAR) since Pedro Martinez in 2000, and best by a position player since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. In short, it’s been a historic year, on a historic team.

Eovaldi Makes His Case

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported on Saturday that Nathan Eovaldi had a chance to supplant Eduardo Rodriguez in the playoff rotation. Eovaldi certainly made his case for the 4th spot on Monday night. He allowed only 1 run (while striking out 10 Orioles) over 5 innings of work.

Rodriguez made his first appearance out of the bullpen, as well. He followed up Eovaldi’s start with two shutout innings of his own.

Manager Alex Cora has said who starts Game 4 of the ALDS will be matchup dependent. At this point it makes sense that Eovaldi has closed the gap on Rodriguez. E-Rod has been inconsistent in four starts this month after missing half of July and all of August on the disabled list. He’s posted a 5.79 ERA in his September starts, mixing a pair of solid outings against sub-.500 teams with a pair of poor efforts vs. playoff-bound Houston and New York.

Of course, who is actually slated to start that game could be a moot point. Should the Red Sox sweep (or get swept), or fall into a 2-1 series deficit, we might not see a 4th starter in the ALDS, anyway. Still, it’s a key theme to keep an eye on over the final week of the season.

The Red Sox have made history, and checked all of the boxes that they’ve needed to check this season. They can effectively plan for the postseason, having secured their place at the top of Major League Baseball and as the best regular season Red Sox team in franchise history.

Time will tell whether or not this has any bearing in October, when the records are reset to 0-0 and chaos reigns supreme.

How Phillips Becomes An Asset Even When He’s Not On The Field.

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The 37 year old infielder becomes an asset in multiple ways after being called up on Sunday night.

As Announced Tuesday afternoon, Brandon Phillips will be the first Red Sox player to don the number 0. He has finally got his shot at the major leagues for the first time this season. He claimed the last spot on the 40 man roster. His last major league game was on September 30, 2017 as a member of the Los Angeles Angels. Against the Oakland Athletics, he went 1-4 with a strikeout. While tearing it up in AAA Pawtucket, what does he bring to the table?

His career numbers show it all. During his 15 year career, he collected 2,026 hits, 210 home runs, 949 runs batted in, with a career .275 batting average. With the hopes of a contract next year as well, pending on his performance he might just get one.

In Pawtucket, he sported a .302 batting average with 4 home runs, 19 runs batted in, with 1 stolen base and 45 hits.  During his 38 games with the club. He has been showing us all along that he still has the offensive pop in his bat, and the speed underneath his feet to help move this Red Sox offense along.

While having great experience from his major league career, he can share his words of wisdom to the younger core of infielders this team has. Rafael Devers, Ian Kinsler, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, and even Dustin Pedroia can learn a thing or two from Brandon Phillips.

Devers can especially get some inside knowledge of his throwing hiccups. While learning how to overcome these difficulties at such a young age. Pedroia can learn about dealing with consistent injuries. As we all know, Phillips had dealt with several injuries throughout his career as well. He is still playing at a high level at age 37.

His Versatility.

He has played at almost any position in the infield. He knows what each position demands, physically and mentally. His presence has made a nightmare scenario for most teams even worse. It will be interesting to note if he is used as a rest guy for now. As a 162 game season requires the need for a rest day here and there. The toll is heavy.

He comes up the same day Devers is taken off the dl. How will Alex Cora manage this? He said that he is very excited to have a veteran guy like him around. It will be fun to watch moving forward.

While he may be in action as soon as the first game against the Atlanta Braves Tuesday night, it remains to be seen how he will preform in his comeback. As one could only speculate the emotions tied to his first performance back to where he hit his stardom, and became a household name.