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Looking Back at the Kyrie Irving Trade

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One year ago today the Celtics and Cavaliers pulled off a blockbuster trade. Kyrie Irving requested a trade from Cleveland, and Danny Ainge pulled off another heist a few weeks later. The Celtics traded Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas, Ante Zizic, a 2018 1st round draft pick (Collin Sexton was later selected) and a 2020 2nd round draft pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Kyrie Irving. (2020 2nd-rd pick from BOS to CLE is MIA’s pick, and was added as compensation for Isaiah Thomas’s injury). Let’s take a look back at each player’s last 365 days.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving did not disappoint in his first year in Boston. He averaged 24.4 points, 5.1 assists, shot 49.1% from the field and showed improvement on the defensive side of the floor. After Gordon Hayward went out on opening night, Irving proved that he can lead a team by himself. He was obviously the second option in Cleveland but shined as the man in control in Boston. He worked very well with Al Horford and did a great job getting Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown involved in the offense. These were simply things IT could not accomplish in Boston. He needed the ball in his hands and is not nearly as good of a facilitator as Irving.

However, everything took a turn for the worst on March 11th against the Pacers. He suffered a knee injury, which led to surgery that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. The Celtics ending up falling in seven games to the Cavs and the consensus opinion is that the Celtics would have won that series if Kyrie were playing. Kyrie will be back for the Celtics next year, but rumors about his upcoming free agency next summer are already swirling. The Celtics need to resign Irving next year to ensure that they win the trade.

Maddy Meyer

Jae Crowder

Crowder averaged 8.6 points and 3.3 total rebounds per game with Cleveland. These numbers were a step down from his final season with the Celtics. The Cavs made the decision to flip Crowder to Utah before the trade deadline when they blew everything up and completely revamped their roster. Crowder ended up shining alongside Donovan Mitchell in Quin Snyder’s system. Crowder improved in points per game, rebounds, and assists while he was with the Jazz. However, the biggest knock on him is that he wasn’t very efficient. He got worse in field goal%, three-point%, two point%, and effective field goal%. In Boston, Crowder took a lot more shots than he should have which led to distaste between him and the fans.

Isaiah Thomas

It has been an interesting 365 days for Isaiah Thomas. He was on the Celtics, then traded to the Cavs, flipped to the Lakers, and signed the veteran minimum with Denver. After being out until January with a hip injury, IT played in just 15 games with the Cavs. It was a disaster. His style of play and personality just did not fit with LeBron’s. They are both egomaniacs and need the ball in their hands at all times. Thomas was hated by Cavs fans during that time, and clubhouse craziness was reported.

LeBron James, the former owner, coach, and general manager of the Cavs traded Thomas to the Lakers as part of the roster overhaul at the trade deadline. Thomas settled in nicely and played well off the bench. He averaged 15.6 points and exactly five assists in 17 games played. The offseason and free agency process were very frustrating for Thomas. After telling the Celtics to back up the Brinks truck, he ended up signing a one year, two million deal with Denver.

Collin Sexton

The biggest unknown in this deal is rookie guard Collin Sexton. He was selected eighth overall in this year’s draft. Sexton was a superstar at Alabama and single-handedly dragged Alabama to the round of 32 before they were stopped by eventual champion Villanova. Sexton is a rookie, so nobody really knows what the Cavs are getting. He could be a franchise-altering player or a bust. He is all the Cavs have left over from the trade, so it is up to him to save the deal. To make the deal a win for the Cavs, Sexton has to be better than Kyrie and win championships in Cleveland. He needs to fill the shoes that Kyrie left in Cleveland

Bottom Line

So far, it is obvious that the Celtics won the trade. Irving was great in his first year. The Cavs got rid of two of the three main pieces of the deal, and now they are counting on Sexton. If Sexton is better than Kyrie, then the Cavs will win the trade. Should Kyrie stay in Boston and wins championships, the Celtics will remain winners of the trade. If Kyrie leaves in free agency and Sexton does not turn into a superstar, then the trade is a wash. It is possible that Ante Zizic or the second round pick turns into something, but that is extremely unlikely. If Crowder and Thomas shine on their new teams, Cleveland may regret shipping them out.

Jayson Tatum vs LeBron James By the Numbers

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I know how crazy this will sound. Who in their right mind would even consider comparing an unproven 20-year-old to arguably the greatest basketball player to ever live? Before you all get out the torches and sharpen your pitchforks let me explain.

This piece focuses on how much potential Jayson Tatum has. With some recent articles floating around social media making the case that Taco Jay is ‘overhyped’ I felt the need to come to his defense. There is no defense stronger than proving to the world that the 20-year-old talent put up comparative advanced metrics to the King in their respective rookie seasons. Let’s dive into the numbers.

Jayson Tatum Advanced Metrics for 2017-18 Season

LeBron James Advanced Metrics for 2003-04 Season

Player Efficiency Rating and Usage Percentage

The first metric that strikes my eye is each player’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating) vs their USG% (Usage Percent).

To clarify- the PER sums up all of a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns the per-minute rating of a player’s performance. The USG% figure refers to the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the court.

Jayson Tatum finished his rookie campaign with a respectable 15.3 PER against a modest 19.5 USG% in 2438 minutes played.

LeBron James finished his rookie campaign with a slightly higher 18.3 PER against a MUCH higher 28.2 USG% in 3122 minutes played.

Simply put, Jayson Tatum was only slightly less efficient than James while receiving significantly fewer touches and play calls. This comes as a testament to the abnormally high efficiency Tatum exhibited throughout his first season in the league.

Entering as a ball stopping ISO heavy talent, Tatum’s biggest question marks were his outside shooting and efficiency in an NBA offense predicated around ball movement. Tatum responded by shooting 43.3% from 3 (good for 8th in the league) and quickly proved he can do what is needed for the betterment of the team. His modest 19.5 USG% reveals that he was not the ‘ball stopper’ that he was predicted to be. In fact, it is Tatum’s malleability and selflessness that has quickly become his biggest strength heading into his 2nd season. His ability to get off whatever shot he desires at will coupled with the basketball IQ to know when to give up the rock bodes well for his future outlook.

True Shooting Percentage, Total Rebound Percentage and Win Shares

(Boston MA, 05/03/18) Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum celebrates after dunking during the second half of Game 2 of the Conference Semifinals against the Philadelphia 76ers at the TD Garden on Thursday, May 03, 2018. Staff photo by Matt Stone

Jayson Tatum actually tops LeBron James in multiple advanced metrics in their respective rookie seasons. First, let me clarify what each of these statistics means.

True Shooting Percentage (TS%) measures a player’s efficiency at shooting the ball. It considers total points scored over all field goals made including free throws, 2-point field goals and 3 pointers plus free throws attempted. It is the most accurate measurement of a player’s overall shooting efficiency.

Total Rebound Percentage (TR%) is a statistic used to gauge how effective a player is at gaining possession of the ball after a missed field goal or free throw. Essentially the stat measures the percentage of missed shots the individual rebounds while on the court.

Win Shares (WS) is a bit of a complex metric but in a nutshell it estimates the number of wins a player produces for his team. It is essentially a measurement of how important the player is to his team’s success.

How Does Tatum Compare?

Now onto the fun stuff. Jayson Tatum’s impressive rookie PER shines through when looking at his TS%, which sits at 58.6%. Comparatively, LeBron finished his rookie campaign with a 48.8% TS%, nearly 10% lower than that of Tatum’s. This is directly correlated to Tatum’s shot taking decisions. He very rarely takes tough shots and doesn’t force anything. With everything he does he always appears to be comfortable and confident, as shown by his 49% shooting from 2 and 43% from 3 for the season.

Jayson Tatum finished his rookie campaign averaging 5 rebounds per contest. He accomplished a 9% TR%, 1.4% higher than James’. LeBron has gone on to average an impressive 7.4 rebounds per game for his career. Taking Tatum’s rookie season under consideration, there is no reason the 6’8” forward can’t accomplish the same if not better than the King in this department.

The final measurement that caught my eye in this comparison was Win Shares plus Win Shares per 48 minutes. LeBron James played 684 minutes more than Jayson Tatum in his rookie season. Yet it was Tatum who held a higher WS metric. Essentially, Jayson Tatum individually produced 2 more wins for the Celtics than LeBron for the Cavs in significantly less playing time. Taking it a step further, if that measurement is rounded out to 48 minutes (the length of a full game) Tatum still outshines James with .139 WS to .078, respectively. What does this mean? According to this metric one can make a legitimate argument that Jayson Tatum was more important to the Celtics his rookie year than LeBron James was to the Cavaliers.

Is Jayson Tatum ‘Overhyped’?

Jayson Tatum finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year race and landed on the NBA All Rookie 1st Team. He was thrusted into the spotlight a mere 5 minutes into his first NBA game against (ironically) LeBron James. He averaged 13.9 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per contest as a 19-year-old. The team needed him to step up in the playoffs due to devastating injuries to valuable teammates. He responded by leading the entire roster in scoring through 19 playoff games. His 18.5 points per game scoring average got him within 1 point of tying basketball legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most points scored by a rookie in the playoffs in NBA history.

Some believe that Tatum will end up being the best rookie to come out of his draft class. Doubters will shake their heads and say the guy has already peaked. That he won’t get much better than he is now.

What do I believe?

I believe that the sky is the limit for Jayson Tatum. He has every tool in his arsenal necessary to become one of the NBA’s elite. I would say he is arguably the most gifted talent that the Boston Celtics have drafted since Larry Bird (sorry Paul). The situation could not be more perfect for Tatum. The system around him will provide every opportunity to maximize his talents and realize his full potential. Now, he’s just got to go out and prove to the world that he can do it.

 

Boston Celtics Draft Prospect Profile: Grayson Allen

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With the draft a short week away, the Boston Celtics begin to turn their attention toward the young athletes looking to make the leap into the league.

Headlining the draft are the likes of Duke forward Marvin Bagley, Arizona’s Deandre Ayton, and international guard Luka Doncic. These are the players garnishing most of the buzz as mock drafts begin winding down and top 100 rankings start clearing up.

Boston holds the 27th pick and has reportedly narrowed down their field of prospects to around 10 players. Perhaps the most interesting of the prospects the team has worked out is Duke’s Grayson Allen.

The Prospect

Allen is the most polarizing and perhaps controversial name to look for as the draft creeps towards the end of the first round and into the second. He played four years under legendary Coach Krzyzewski, finishing his tenure with 14 points, three assists, 3.1 rebounds, and two three-pointers made per game on 37.5% three-point field goal shooting. His best season came in his second year at Duke, where he averaged 21.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game while eclipsing the 40% mark from three-point range.

Allen became a polarizing figure because of his on court tripping antics, receiving the label as a ‘dirty player’.

What Allen Does Well

These on-court antics should not concern Boston. Jayson Tatum gave Ainge the thumbs up on Grayson. Tatum said that he is not a ‘dirty’ player, he is just highly competitive. He is a well-educated individual that will soon learn that the tripping will not fly in the NBA. As he matures this will be a non-factor.

Grayson is a decent athlete with a pretty good shot (37.5% 3pt) and an ability to get to the rim. He is not a true point guard, but he also lacks the ideal size for a shooting guard in today’s NBA. Allen is much smaller than guys like Klay Thompson, DeRozan, and Harden, all examples of players that fit the shooting guard mold perfectly.

Where He Struggles

Grayson is not as athletic as most of the undersized shooting guards in the NBA, which could hurt his ability to create separation between him and his taller defender. He is not a crafty ball handler and lacks an explosive first step. At times, Allen struggles with reading his defender’s position and tends to be a bit one dimensional with his move set.

There is a level of concern about Allen’s defensive capabilities moving forward. Based on his size and average athleticism, Grayson might struggle to try to guard his bigger and more explosive counterparts. He is not super quick laterally. Without good help defense, he may be prone to blow byes.

Grayson Allen has a high basketball IQ, good shooting ability, and he does come from a winning culture. Duke University does have a solid track record of producing good pro ball players. Some alumni include Grant Hill, Kyrie Irving, JJ Redick, Jayson Tatum, and Brandon Ingram.

Player Comparison

Under the right system, Grayson Allen could develop into a solid role player. Given his physical attributes, he comes as a pretty big gamble with a conservative ceiling and a low floor. He should still be on the board when Boston is on the clock with the 27th overall pick. It is unlikely Boston takes Allen as the team favors long, athletic players with switch ability.

Best case player comparison- Eric Gordon.

Likely player comparison- Austin Rivers.

Celtics

LeBron Struck First, but the Celtics Got the Last Laugh

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Grit, determination, and a never quit attitude. Those are traits the Celtics have embodied all season long, and everything the team exemplified in Game 2.  After a hard-fought battle the Boston Celtics pulled away late for a 107-94 victory and a 2-0 series lead. LeBron’s monster game proved not quite enough, as the Celtics attacked the Cavaliers with a huge team effort.

The Cavaliers started the game with revitalized energy after inserting big man Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup in place of Kyle Korver. Thompson did a good job of locking down the pick and roll early on. He managed to disrupt the C’s offensive flow, forcing them into some tough looks.

LeBron James poured in a whopping 21 points in the first quarter, the most points in any quarter in any playoff game of his career. He added four threes on 8-13 shooting, but the rest of the Cavs shot 3-11 for a total of six points in the frame. LeBron finished the night with 42 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds.

Bringing LeBron to a Halt

If it wasn’t for the valiant efforts of Jaylen Brown, the Cavs could have ran away with it early. Jaylen led the charge with 14 points in the first quarter, finishing with a team high 23 to go along with seven rebounds and three assists.

Jayson Tatum picked up where Jaylen left off. He started the second quarter with nine quick points to keep the team afloat as LeBron continued to stay hot. Towards the end of the quarter, LeBron took a hard shot to the jaw and had to leave the floor to get checked out. He was quickly cleared to play and returned before the end of the period. Meanwhile, the Cavs built their lead up to double digits for the first time in the series. Marcus Smart made some big plays with under a minute left in the quarter and the Celtics trimmed the Cavalier lead to seven.

It Takes a Village

Terry Rozier was the hot hand in the third. He overcame a rocky start by producing 14 points on his way to an 18 point and five rebound night. The momentum started to shift in favor of the Celtics, as the team dominated the period in the open floor. They barraged the Cavs with 36 points in the quarter while creating havoc on the defensive side of the ball. Marcus Morris was huge, hitting a tough and one with 5:14 to play in the quarter to tie the game up. He took a moment to wave his hands in the air, gesturing the garden faithful to their feet as the crowd roared with en electric energy.

Less than a minute later Marcus Smart canned a three from the top of the arch to give the Celtics their first lead since 3-2. It became a lead they would not relinquish.

Marcus Smart was absolutely crucial in the second half. He provided an adrenaline shot of energy that infected the whole team. Smart gave the Celtics all the momentum necessary to continue pouring in basket after basket, relentlessly attacking the teeth of the Cavalier defense. He finished with 11 points, nine assists, five rebounds, four steals, and a team high +/- of +21.

Playoff Al

Smart’s efforts must have particularly affected Al Horford. After an eight point and five rebound fourth quarter, Al put the Cavaliers to rest. He finished with 15 points and 10 rebounds for the game.

Horford’s biggest moment came with just under four minutes to go. After Al set a pick and rolled for an alley-oop. J,R. Smith gave him a shove in the back on the way up. Consequently, Smith got issued a Flagrant 1 on the play. Horford hit both free throws and on the ensuing possession tacked three more to put the Celtics up 12. All hopes of a comeback were all but over for the Cavs.

It was a team effort fueled victory for the Celtics. Four different players stepped up and led the team in scoring in each quarter for the game. The team also did a great job of handling the ball, giving up only eight turnovers to the Cavaliers’ 15.

The Cavs gave LeBron a bit more help in the game, mostly from fellow All-Star Kevin Love, who produced a 22 point and 15 rebound double double. Tristan Thompson finished with an eight point and seven rebound effort, and Kyle Korver gave the team 11 points off the bench.

A True Competitor

After the game Brad Stevens gushed about Marcus Smart and what he brings to the table for the team. “He’s as tough as they come. A true competitor. He matches his intensity with a physical toughness. We are really glad he is on our team”. Marcus Smart continues to be the hot glue guy for this Celtics team. The Celtics have gone an impressive 8-2 since inserting him back into the lineup. He seems to never fail to make the big plays down the stretch of games, not afraid of any moment and willing to bump and scrape to win every possession. 

Stevens finished his press conference stating that the team will, “have to be tougher and even more resilient as we move to Cleveland”.

History will be on the their side, as the team is 37-0 after leading a best of seven series 2-0.

Game 3 will take place Saturday night at 8:30 pm. The Celtics will look to take a commanding 3-0 lead as LeBron will do anything to claw the Cavaliers back into the series.

Why Celtics Nation Should Trade for Kyrie

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With reports running wild out of Cleveland about the possibility of a Kyrie trade,  Celtics fans need to ask themselves just one question. “Do we have a chance?”

Conflicting reports continue.  The C’s and Cavs have stayed in touch about the possibility of a deal between the two clubs involving Kyrie and multiple Celtics assets. If these reports pan out and a trade does happen, then this would be HUGE for the Celtics now, and going forward in the future. Consider some of the reasons why I feel like the trade would make the Celtics a better team in the long run, and my possible trade scenario:

-Via @AdamHimmelsbach / Celtics writer for the Boston Globe

– Via @ByJayKing / Boston Celtics reports for MassLive.com

 

The Age/Injury Factor:

Although IT4 is not an old man, he has three years on Kyrie who is currently only 25. There is also the lingering concern when it comes to injury, with IT4 who just avoided major hip surgery. Although he doesn’t need surgery (yet), a hip problem is a big red flag for me when it comes to a 5’9 point guard who likes the drive the lane and cause contact against bigger bodies in the paint.

When I hear hip injury for IT, I can only believe this has a high probability to shorten his career.  Kyrie has no major injury concerns, besides soreness in his knee this past year.   The risk of injury factor leans towards IT more than it does Kyrie.

Kyrie – 1

IT- 0

 

The Contract Situations

One thing to always consider when it comes to a trade, especially of this magnitude — the contracts involved and the value  for each team.

First we have Kyrie who signed a five-year, $94M deal.  In 2017-18, Irving will earn a base salary of $18,868,625. This may seem like a high dollar amount, but quite frankly he is UNDERPAID for how good he is and ranks 48th, YES 48TH among player salaries going into next season which is quite low for possibly the second best point guard in the NBA. Kyrie is under control for the next couple of seasons and has already said he would re-sign if traded to the Spurs.  Don’t count the C’s out just yet especially since reports broke that he wants to play for Brad Stevens.

Next we have IT who is currently ranked 168th next year in NBA salary rankings. IT4 will be making a little north of $6M next season, clearly low, and he deserves much, much more.  But I am not sold on a 5’9 PG with a new hip injury receiving a max contract….NOT FROM THE CELTICS ANYWAY! Contract wise, the favorable choice here for the Celtics would be to trade for Kyrie who you would control for another few years, as opposed to taking a risk and paying IT4 a max-dollar amount.

Kyrie- 2

It4- 0

Via Pro Basketball Reference

Via Pro Basketball Reference

 

Kyrie vs IT4

Now lets take a look at both players overall and determine who really ranks highest. As ALL of Celtic Nation knows by now, IT4 “Mr. 4th Quarter” has earned his nickname. Big shots late in games pointing to his wrist at an imaginary watch asking, “what time is it?” But we all knew it was HIS time. What Thomas did for this team last season in late games and in BIG games was nothing short of miraculous and heroic.  But in playoff games, we needed the same IT4 late in games but we did not get same outcome.

In his career,  Isaiah has averaged 19.1 ppg to go along with 5.2 apg , 2.6 trb , and one steal per game. Thomas saw a huge incline last season in ppg where he went from 22 to 28 ppg with NUMEROUS clutch shots to guide the Celtics team to victory. One huge fault of IT4 is his tendency to take some bad shots or too many shots, and he plays ZERO defense….Lets not forget before signing Gordon Hayward, IT4 was the primary scorer on this team.

Kyrie dhas average 21.6 ppg to go along with 5.5 apg , 3.4 trb , and 1.3 steals per game. Kyrie seems to only be getting better every year he plays and this guy is one of, if not the BEST ball handlers. He absolutely COOKS his defenders and makes them looks silly. Although Kyrie is not much of an upgrade over IT4 defensively, he is still the bigger guard and I would take him on defense over IT4 any day of the week.  I cannot stress enough to Celtics fans or any NBA fans that Kyrie is overshadowed on Cleveland’s roster by a guy named Lebron James who is a top-three player of ALL-TIME.

While we are discussing the two players and speaking about IT4 being Mr. 4th Quarter lets not forget that Lebron wouldn’t have two rings without two big shots late in Final’s games. One of those big shots came from Ray Allen in the corner when the Heat beat the Spurs.  The other shot  came from Kyrie himself in game seven vs Golden State to bring a long awaited title to “The Land.”  Kyrie seems to always make a HUGE shot when it matters most or takes the ball to the hole on bigger defenders in big games and finish at the rim effortlessly….. That is the kinda guy I want wearing green in big games. So who makes the team better in my opinion? KYRIE ALL DAY, NO QUESTIONS ASKED!

OAKLAND, CA – JUNE 19: Kyrie Irving #2 of the Cleveland Cavaliers shoots a three-point basket late in the fourth quarter against Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals at ORACLE Arena on June 19, 2016 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Kyrie – 3

IT4 -0

(CLEAN SWEEP)

 

THE TRADE PROPOSAL:

Boston Receives:

Kyrie Irving

 

Cleveland Recevies:

Jae Crowder

Isaiah Thomas

Terry Rozier

Lakers 2018 1st round draft pick

 

Why you make the trade

So this one is actually easy for me. If I am Danny Ainge, I pull the trigger on this deal for a few reasons. Take away IT for a second and look at what else you’re giving up. If the Celtics give up Crowder and somehow keep Tatum (who Cleveland is reportedly interested in) then you have depth at the forward position with Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Semi Ojeleye, and Gureschon Yabusele. Clearly, there is a log jam at the 3-4 position so losing Jae isn’t that big of a deal. Losing IT4 hurts, but you’re getting a younger and better guard in return.   Losing Rozier really doesn’t do much because of the emergence of Marcus Smart as an all around guard and a more than capable backup/6th man off the bench.

This is an easy one for me fellow Celtic fans.   If this deal materializes, you pull the trigger and you pull it ASAP! Sorry IT, I love ya bud,  but I’m just looking at the best option for the team now and in the future!